1 of 1- GW0509
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Future of D1 Sports
Very interesting article on SI.com:
“ The conversation is largely driven by the FBS elite: the Power 5—the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, ACC and Big 12—and its commissioners, two of whom sit on the NCAA’s transformation committee, the group charged this spring with restructuring D-I. College sports’s richest leagues want to keep more revenue, spend more of that money in ways they currently cannot because of legislation and engineer their schools to participate and qualify in more championship events.
Many administrators fear oncoming threats from the rich and powerful, such as creating a fourth subdivision of schools and deregulating legislation that could further widen the gap in D-I, eliminating automatic qualifiers to championships and overhauling a revenue distribution model that keeps some smaller schools afloat.
Each year, at least a dozen automatic qualifiers take spots that could go to major conference programs who are on the bubble and left out, an issue where “the tension is mounting,” says one Power 5 athletic director. “We are letting anyone into Division I from Division II and all the sudden that school gets a shot at the tournament over an eighth-placed SEC team?”
None of this would be good for a league like the A-10 and schools like GW. I think the days of the A-10 getting six teams in the tournament are all but over. I’d put my money on getting three schools in as the ceiling and more often we’ll get two in when the regular season winner loses in the conference tournament. The Big Boys are going to find ways to get the 9th best Big Ten team in over the 3rd best A-10 team every time. In some sense, JC is probably right to focus on conference play like he did in the NEC. Only problem is we haven’t seen those results yet.
Last edited by GW0509 (1/20/2022 11:24 am)
- GWRising
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Re: Future of D1 Sports
This was predicted by Jack Kvancz a number of years ago. It's just a matter of time before GW has to make a choice. Wouldn't surprise me if more schools go the Hartford route in reaction to any split. And it will get harder to make the case for spending so much money on athletics with less payoff in terms of visibility and monetary compensation. If I were to bet, GW will either be in some sort of an Ivy League model (financial aid based on need for athletes) or DIII model in 8-10 years assuming a split-off of the Power 5 does occur.
- DC Native
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Re: Future of D1 Sports
If the Power 5 broke away from the rest of D1, I agree it would be very bad for the A10. But an alternative scenario could be dividing D1 into two subdivisions, D1a and D1b, each with their own Tourney, in which D1a would have about a dozen conferences and D1b would have the remaining 20 or so conferences. Why would the Power 5 agree to that? Because it would be hard to put 64 teams from the Power 5 in an NCAA Tourney, and big money sports never reduce the number of games in their playoffs (I think they could reduce from 68 to 64, but wouldn't want to further reduce). With 12 conferences, they could still have a 64 team tourney, could get more Power 5 teams in, and still have some Cinderella teams (although not quite so Cinderella). This would be a great scenario for the A10, as we are consistently in the better 4 or 5 conferences outside of the Power 5. And being in D1a would help A10 recruiting all around. It wouldn't be too bad for the D1b conferences either, as their schools currently have no shot at winning a championship. But perhaps I'm just dreaming...
- FredD
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Re: Future of D1 Sports
Great article. The pandemic couldn't have come at a better time for the upper division of the Power 5.Alot of schools like GW may have had the hunger to fight the biggest changes or press for a less draconian solution, but not now. If the P5 is smart they'll take 3/4 of a loaf knowing the other 1/4 will drop in their laps eventually.
Personally, seeing CFB destroy the NCAAs is horrible. Seeing GW be part of something far inferior would really bother me. But, in times of crises the powerful grab more power
- Deleo
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Re: Future of D1 Sports
There's been talk of this for years. But perhaps Covid and other stuff has pushed it to becoming a reality. I was surprised at the comments in the article saying that something real is going to happen this time around. This time it does sound real.
The problem is that the A-10 and every conference that is not in those Power 5 football conferences essentially has no leverage. The major conference commissioners and Presidents will say, this is the new way for how it's all going to be, take it or leave it. What is the A-10 going to do other than say "ok".
It just means conferences like the A-10 are going to be treated like second class citizens in Div 1. Will an A-10 team have to get an at-large bid to make the NCAA's, so winning the conference tournament doesn't get a team in? I could see something like that happening.
- GW0509
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Re: Future of D1 Sports
Deleo wrote:
There's been talk of this for years. But perhaps Covid and other stuff has pushed it to becoming a reality. I was surprised at the comments in the article saying that something real is going to happen this time around. This time it does sound real.
As bad as it sounds I think NIL is making this become a reality.
The writing is on the wall that these schools will need to start sharing more $ with the college athletes soon. But ADs and Coaches don’t want that $ to come out of their pockets. So instead they’re looking to cut out the little guys.
The P5’s are basically Don Draper in that scene in Mad Men where he tells the young employee “I don’t think about you at all.”
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Thread Starter- Merrick
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Re: Future of D1 Sports
The future is now. This is an interesting read from the Atlantic by Stewart Mandel is about football, but focusses on third-party NIL "collectives" pooling millions from boosters and fans at to lure athletes to their schools--but outside the official auspices of the college. As Mandel notes, it will be interesting to see how this unfolds, but don't expect the NCAA to get it right after squandering multiple opportunities to direct more cash to athletes than to their own collective.
- Merrick
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Re: Future of D1 Sports
We can talk all we want about the future of GW basketball, but unless you begin to understand the impact of NIL/collective matters, any discussion about recruiting, JC, and regaining national prominence seems increasingly delusionary in this new environment. Apart from creating fascinating new legal issues, collectives will have a significantly profound impact on MBB in general, mid-majors in particular, and schools like GW specifically.
As in my prior post, the item linked below is about college football (requires The Athletic subscription), but is a short hop away from altering MBB and pushing us toward the two-tiered football model with 130 schools in FBS and everyone else. Even with the FBS, there is a hierarchy with the Power Five controlling the most lucrative bowl games and a few independents (e.g., Notre Dame) in that upper echelon. The notion that you could ever get a George Mason or a Loyola-Chicago into the Final Four, or even a Sweet Sixteen is in greater jeopardy now than in any other time.
The NIL/collectives are something entirely new--where guaranteed incomes can be created for high school students (in the multi-millions for 5-star recruits) totally divorced from any official or even unofficial university involvement. How can we possible compete with Power 5 collectives in providing kids with guaranteed incomes? This applies even if a top tier Power Five school loses a player; are we going to be able to compete with lower Power 5 MBB fan bases such Nebraska, Boston College, Northwestern? Below the Power 5, can we generate collective revenue like a Dayton, Xavier, or even UMass--which can fill a 10,000 seat arena when the team is good?
I understand that college basketball is different in that March Madness can generate billions based on widespread interest across the country and it's 350+ D1 schools. How much does that business model shrink revenue if the mid-majors can't genuinely compete? As alluded to above, my guess is that there a sufficient number of mid-majors with sufficient booster support to keep things interesting for a while, but I'm not sure for how long and I highly doubt we are one of those schools.
cas
Last edited by Merrick (3/12/2022 5:56 pm)