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7/13/2022 3:16 pm  #1


The Future

A good albeit potentially somber off-season topic to discuss is GW's athletic future.  The recent moves by the SEC and Big 10 ought to indicate that changes are already upon us, and that these changes could reverberate throughout college athletics.  As in, all of college athletics.

As for GW's place in what could be a new world, here are a few plausible scenarios:

a) The SEC and Big 10 will continue to grow into two major conferences.  Say somewhere between 24-32 schools per conference.  These 48-64 schools will break away from the NCAA and will be the schools competing for national championships in all sports.  

b) The remaining Division 1 programs will be left to fend for themselves.  Many will compete in a second tier of college sports.  They will have tv contracts; in fact, things will be similar to what they are now except their bowl games and postseason tournaments will be amongst themselves.  If you thought an NIT Championship 6 years ago was no big deal, this might be even less of a big deal.

c) It will stand to reason that the appeal of b) can not be justified given the expenses needed to compete at this level, and will therefore drop to a lesser athletic tier.  Along the lines of Patriot League or Division 1 Football Championship Subdivision schools or Division 2 and 3 schools.

d) Another scenario is that the 48-64 schools I referenced in a) becomes more like 100 schools give or take.  That can easily mean that some A10 members such as VCU, Dayton, and St. Louis among others will likely make this cut while other programs likely would not.  This could result in anything from a drastic reconfiguration of the A10 to the conference dissolving entirely.

What's everyone's take on this, specifically as things pertain to GW?  Any of the above scenarios or something else entirely?  What do you foresee happening, and over what time frame?  Status quo for another 3 years?  5?  10?

 

7/13/2022 5:08 pm  #2


Re: The Future

Gwmayhem wrote:

A good albeit potentially somber off-season topic to discuss is GW's athletic future.  The recent moves by the SEC and Big 10 ought to indicate that changes are already upon us, and that these changes could reverberate throughout college athletics.  As in, all of college athletics.

As for GW's place in what could be a new world, here are a few plausible scenarios:

a) The SEC and Big 10 will continue to grow into two major conferences.  Say somewhere between 24-32 schools per conference.  These 48-64 schools will break away from the NCAA and will be the schools competing for national championships in all sports.  

b) The remaining Division 1 programs will be left to fend for themselves.  Many will compete in a second tier of college sports.  They will have tv contracts; in fact, things will be similar to what they are now except their bowl games and postseason tournaments will be amongst themselves.  If you thought an NIT Championship 6 years ago was no big deal, this might be even less of a big deal.

c) It will stand to reason that the appeal of b) can not be justified given the expenses needed to compete at this level, and will therefore drop to a lesser athletic tier.  Along the lines of Patriot League or Division 1 Football Championship Subdivision schools or Division 2 and 3 schools.

d) Another scenario is that the 48-64 schools I referenced in a) becomes more like 100 schools give or take.  That can easily mean that some A10 members such as VCU, Dayton, and St. Louis among others will likely make this cut while other programs likely would not.  This could result in anything from a drastic reconfiguration of the A10 to the conference dissolving entirely.

What's everyone's take on this, specifically as things pertain to GW?  Any of the above scenarios or something else entirely?  What do you foresee happening, and over what time frame?  Status quo for another 3 years?  5?  10?

If the NCAA tries to boot the non big money teams out of March madness, the backlash will be as fierce as it was to the SuperLeague announcement (which was the BCS equivalent of European soccer announcing formation of their own league, and the backlash was so ferocious that not only did they back down, but lawmakers got involved to protect what they consider a national treasure).

 

7/13/2022 5:52 pm  #3


Re: The Future

Is Saudi money involved?
As I have said before, we are now looking at a structure where there are schools with teams, teams with schools and teams using school names. No way GW ever aspires to be anything other than a school with teams, so it comes down to if the teams using school names want to keep sharing the spoils with the likes of we bit players or not. Unless we enter a new era of "trust busting" like in the early 19th Century, legislators will scream and yell for the cameras but do little to take on big money. The onus is on we the ticket buying/TV watching/advertising-influenced fans to turn our backs on the drool-enducing match-ups of U$C vs Ohio St in football and Duke vs Baylor in hoops, otherwise big money is going to win the day. Schools that have morgaged their futures to finance "big time" sports teams and facilities (St Mary´s, Boise St., So. Florida) are probably pretty nervous about now. GW´s athletics are not in a financial hole, so if the NCAA system collapses the loss will not put the future of the University at risk... and that seems like a good idea about now. 
 

Last edited by GW Alum Abroad (7/13/2022 5:54 pm)

 

7/14/2022 8:55 am  #4


Re: The Future

Free Quebec wrote:

Gwmayhem wrote:

A good albeit potentially somber off-season topic to discuss is GW's athletic future.  The recent moves by the SEC and Big 10 ought to indicate that changes are already upon us, and that these changes could reverberate throughout college athletics.  As in, all of college athletics.

As for GW's place in what could be a new world, here are a few plausible scenarios:

a) The SEC and Big 10 will continue to grow into two major conferences.  Say somewhere between 24-32 schools per conference.  These 48-64 schools will break away from the NCAA and will be the schools competing for national championships in all sports.  

b) The remaining Division 1 programs will be left to fend for themselves.  Many will compete in a second tier of college sports.  They will have tv contracts; in fact, things will be similar to what they are now except their bowl games and postseason tournaments will be amongst themselves.  If you thought an NIT Championship 6 years ago was no big deal, this might be even less of a big deal.

c) It will stand to reason that the appeal of b) can not be justified given the expenses needed to compete at this level, and will therefore drop to a lesser athletic tier.  Along the lines of Patriot League or Division 1 Football Championship Subdivision schools or Division 2 and 3 schools.

d) Another scenario is that the 48-64 schools I referenced in a) becomes more like 100 schools give or take.  That can easily mean that some A10 members such as VCU, Dayton, and St. Louis among others will likely make this cut while other programs likely would not.  This could result in anything from a drastic reconfiguration of the A10 to the conference dissolving entirely.

What's everyone's take on this, specifically as things pertain to GW?  Any of the above scenarios or something else entirely?  What do you foresee happening, and over what time frame?  Status quo for another 3 years?  5?  10?

If the NCAA tries to boot the non big money teams out of March madness, the backlash will be as fierce as it was to the SuperLeague announcement (which was the BCS equivalent of European soccer announcing formation of their own league, and the backlash was so ferocious that not only did they back down, but lawmakers got involved to protect what they consider a national treasure).

I would not foresee this at all.  Like many radical changes, I would anticipate lots of griping in the obvious places (podcasts, talk radio, twitter) at first, with this chorus dying down considerably in future years.  There is most definitely a novelty, charm, call it what you'd like, in countless numbers of Americans filling out their brackets while wondering about schools they have never or barely heard of.  Things change over time.  We all used to think of Gonzaga as the little guy crashing the party.  They are still "a little guy" only nobody perceives this image about them anymore.

What's important to note is that CBS/Turner would welcome this change.  Look at the television ratings of Final 4's involving midmajor schools like Mason, VCU and Butler and you will see some of the lower rated Final 4 games.  As remarkable as their runs were, America counterintuitively decides that at the end of the day, they much prefer to see two heavyweights butt heads rather than the Cinderella story that many are getting excited about.  Most A10 fans of course root for the Cinderella stories but the reality is that's not where the money lies.

GWAA poses an interesting question...would you turn your back on a sport which turned its back on the little guys, GW included?  I would think not once you've reached a certain age.  Those set in their ways are used to watching top matchups in the sport and would not likely be giving that experience up.  Younger people pose a more interesting dynamic.  Does the 25 or 30 year old GW alum who follows GW basketball get turned off of the sport entirely because of the NCAA's shoddy treatment of the smaller programs?  I could see that varying.

     Thread Starter
 

7/14/2022 9:32 am  #5


Re: The Future

Gwmayhem wrote:

Free Quebec wrote:

Gwmayhem wrote:

A good albeit potentially somber off-season topic to discuss is GW's athletic future.  The recent moves by the SEC and Big 10 ought to indicate that changes are already upon us, and that these changes could reverberate throughout college athletics.  As in, all of college athletics.

As for GW's place in what could be a new world, here are a few plausible scenarios:

a) The SEC and Big 10 will continue to grow into two major conferences.  Say somewhere between 24-32 schools per conference.  These 48-64 schools will break away from the NCAA and will be the schools competing for national championships in all sports.  

b) The remaining Division 1 programs will be left to fend for themselves.  Many will compete in a second tier of college sports.  They will have tv contracts; in fact, things will be similar to what they are now except their bowl games and postseason tournaments will be amongst themselves.  If you thought an NIT Championship 6 years ago was no big deal, this might be even less of a big deal.

c) It will stand to reason that the appeal of b) can not be justified given the expenses needed to compete at this level, and will therefore drop to a lesser athletic tier.  Along the lines of Patriot League or Division 1 Football Championship Subdivision schools or Division 2 and 3 schools.

d) Another scenario is that the 48-64 schools I referenced in a) becomes more like 100 schools give or take.  That can easily mean that some A10 members such as VCU, Dayton, and St. Louis among others will likely make this cut while other programs likely would not.  This could result in anything from a drastic reconfiguration of the A10 to the conference dissolving entirely.

What's everyone's take on this, specifically as things pertain to GW?  Any of the above scenarios or something else entirely?  What do you foresee happening, and over what time frame?  Status quo for another 3 years?  5?  10?

If the NCAA tries to boot the non big money teams out of March madness, the backlash will be as fierce as it was to the SuperLeague announcement (which was the BCS equivalent of European soccer announcing formation of their own league, and the backlash was so ferocious that not only did they back down, but lawmakers got involved to protect what they consider a national treasure).

I would not foresee this at all.  Like many radical changes, I would anticipate lots of griping in the obvious places (podcasts, talk radio, twitter) at first, with this chorus dying down considerably in future years.  There is most definitely a novelty, charm, call it what you'd like, in countless numbers of Americans filling out their brackets while wondering about schools they have never or barely heard of.  Things change over time.  We all used to think of Gonzaga as the little guy crashing the party.  They are still "a little guy" only nobody perceives this image about them anymore.

What's important to note is that CBS/Turner would welcome this change.  Look at the television ratings of Final 4's involving midmajor schools like Mason, VCU and Butler and you will see some of the lower rated Final 4 games.  As remarkable as their runs were, America counterintuitively decides that at the end of the day, they much prefer to see two heavyweights butt heads rather than the Cinderella story that many are getting excited about.  Most A10 fans of course root for the Cinderella stories but the reality is that's not where the money lies.

GWAA poses an interesting question...would you turn your back on a sport which turned its back on the little guys, GW included?  I would think not once you've reached a certain age.  Those set in their ways are used to watching top matchups in the sport and would not likely be giving that experience up.  Younger people pose a more interesting dynamic.  Does the 25 or 30 year old GW alum who follows GW basketball get turned off of the sport entirely because of the NCAA's shoddy treatment of the smaller programs?  I could see that varying.

Agree. The griping will be in the media and like most things, the attention span will be for about 15 minutes and then the next story will relegate it to message boards and bar/barber shop discussions. People forget how all the various NCAA divisions came to be. 60-75 years ago, current D3s were playing large D1's in meaningful football games. There was a thing called the ECAC which had huge power in the 1960's and 1970's. Conference affiliations have changed dramatically. There wasn't a football playoff that made most of the Bowls meaningless. 

Point is things change and as long as the product being offered is entertaining, no one is going to lament the absence of schools like GW other than a few of us here.

Barring some sugar daddy or something that changes GW fundamentally, we are eventually headed to D3 or something similar. The athletic revenues do not justify the costs of big time athletics at GW and the problem is only getting more acute. Believe it or not, even another run to the Sweet 16 may not be enough. This may not happen tomorrow or in 3 years but it is coming. It's just a matter of time. Money drives the train in college athletics and GW simply is on the outside looking in.

 

7/14/2022 10:19 am  #6


Re: The Future

The point is FUBO doesn't carry Warner Media (CNN/TBS/TNN) thus missing many NCAA & NBA playoff games.    https://cdn.boardhost.com/emoticons3/angry.png
    I certainly hope that the SEC and Big 10?   topple over due to all the weight they'll be carrying.   BTW, how has the BIG10 worked out for Maryland?  

 

7/14/2022 12:41 pm  #7


Re: The Future

I think where we'll see things first is that as a result of this conference consolidation, the number of at large bids from second tier conferences like the A-10, Mountain West, and even the AAC are probably going to drop.  You'll get the auto-bids and then at larges from the B1G, SEC, BE, and ACC.  Basically every conference game will be no worse than a Q3 for the big boys.

For GW specifically, I wonder if the odds to make the tournament would be greater in a one-bid league than in the A-10 going forward.  I still like us being in the A-10 and do not proactively advocate dropping down to the Patriot League (primarily because I think we could afford to compete in the A-10 if we truly wanted to and also the TV $ is too valuable to leave behind), but from a purely strategic standpoint it may make sense.  I mean, JC took MSM to the tournament more times than ML did even though no one would say JC is a better coach or those MSM teams were better than GW.

Last edited by GW0509 (7/14/2022 12:46 pm)

 

7/15/2022 11:55 pm  #8


Re: The Future

It feels more and more like the Power 5 are going to become the Power 2, plus 1.  There was a great article in the Athletic that referenced a (behind a pay wall article) in the San Jose Mercury News written by Jon Wilner that looked at what a Pac 12/Big 12 merger would look like.  It added SD State and SMU to create a 24-team league that includes 10 of the top 30 tv markets, with schools broken into four 6-team pods.  It proposed a model that creates a 4-team playoff within the conference to get what would likely be an automatic spot in a national playoff for the conference. I encourage you to read the article, which can be found here.

If this occurs, and even if it doesn't, I think the ACC is in bad straights here.  The grant of rights television deal will be broken, if for no other reason that many of the schools want it to go away.  Whether the conference survives or not, I think it ends up being a distant fourth and outside the power structure.  

How this impacts basketball, my gut is that the NCAA tournament as we know it may change (structurally), but will still exist.  I see an 80 or 96-team tournament expansion, so that the basketball Power "x" schools are all but guaranteed entry into the tournament with a winning record.  Coaches want to keep their jobs and university presidents and athletic directors want to be able to fundraise off of their participation.  An expansion allows them to say to their base, "see, we're having a great season...we made the NCAA tournament!" 

I don't see fewer mid-majors in the tournament than we currently have...just more Power schools.

I'd take it a step further...I could see a change to the NCAA Tournament such that the top 16 teams get byes into the final 32 of the NCAA tournament, and there then being 64 other teams playing down to get the other 16.  I'm just speculating here, but ultimately the Power conferences and schools will hold everyone else hostage:  go to a structure that helps the rich or the rich will pull out and create their own new super-division for college sports.  
 

 

7/16/2022 9:38 am  #9


Re: The Future

So how much is it to subscribe to "The Athletic"?   Maybe the NIT will get more important for the non-power schools instead of 96 team playoffs.

 

7/17/2022 2:56 pm  #10


Re: The Future

Combined with NIL, this accelerates the end of college sports as we knew it (or saw it).  Not sure how the re-alignment works in basketball yet compared to football given the traditional powerhouses in the current ACC, Big 12, and Big East--but a breakaway from the NCAA and its rule is inevitable.  This is essentially a TV/gambling money infused semi-pro world.  Players have strong prospects of being allowed to collectively bargain with all of that money around as well.  Forget trying to keep a skilled gem that move up to the "pros" while still at schools like ours.   

Howls of protest yes?  Will the public care?  Probably not.  The greatest prospect for a brake on this is with state legislatures governing public universities, but don't hold your breath waiting for action.
   

 

7/19/2022 8:44 am  #11


Re: The Future

I saw that Lane Kiffin suggested an NIL salary cap which is fascinating to me for several reasons.  It's easy to understand why he would propose this.  It stands to reason that at least half of the SEC schools will see their players earning more money than what Lane could anticipate his players making.  Also, since the money is not coming from the schools, this would be a way to regulate a more level NIL playing field, assuming the NCAA would be both capable and inclined to monitor this.

On the other hand, doesn't this fly in the face of the "free marketplace", or players being entitled to earn what the market will bear, that athletes and advocates were lobbying for in the first place?  What happens when a handful of star players use up the cap, leaving the majority of teammates without NIL deals?  Sounds like this would be simply another rule waiting to be broken.

     Thread Starter
 

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