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1/06/2020 9:12 am  #1


The Glass is Half Full

This post will, I hope, be received in the way that it should be.  It is not being written with rose-colored blinders, unable to see anything negative.  Rather, I am offering this post with eyes wide open to the challenges GW faces with its men's basketball program.  

Yesterday, as I watched the game progress, I knew the likely ending that was to come.  I made no pretense to myself that we would pull away and win the game.  It wasn't pessimism as much as it was that the team is going to lose - a lot - before they become THAT kind of team.  We play a style of basketball that invites scoring streaks and droughts.  We have players who have talent, lots of it, but are inexperienced as a team.  They make incredible plays, but just as many gaffs.  Our coach is contagiously upbeat and has a vision for the future, but the present remains difficult.  Our incoming talent is seemingly strong and I have great optimism.

Is that optimism for an NCAA championship.  No, I think that's a stretch in any world.  Can we become a perennial A-10 contender and earn post-season bids?  Absolutely.

I view this board, often,  as kind of an echo chamber of negativity, always looking at the half-empty glass.  The tone of our posts becomes the tone of the board.  It is not that I just want to see the good in things (which I admittedly do), but I want to take the positive out of this season.  We will struggle to get to .500 this year and I expect an 11 to 13 win season.  But the foundation is here. 

As we question JC's actions, the players' abilities, the collective decision-making, and everything that occurred to get where we are today, I am going to continue to focus on how the team represents our university, how the players' character evolve, and how the team develops into the team they can be in the future.

Barry

 

1/06/2020 9:38 am  #2


Re: The Glass is Half Full

BGF, I'm not sure that the two are mutually exclusive.  In other words, it is entirely possible to be critical after  a game, particularly a loss, while simultaneously believing that the program is on the right track.  Yesterday, there were maybe ten plays that I can only describe as inexcusable.  Things like missing guys who were wide open on offense and leaving a wide open Osunniyi, 4 times by my count, on defense.  Am not really talking about technical things like defending a pick and roll properly when sometimes, you just can't or missing free throws which happens to everyone.  I am referring to things that should never really happen, ever.  Flip the script on these ten plays or so and the outcome could have easily been different.

That said, JC has a vision and that alone has been lacking for a while.  This year's team is in need of additional big guys who can help better defend the rim and additional consistent three point shooters.  Look at the recruits and transfers coming in and it becomes clear that JC knows exactly what he needs.  I agree with DMVPiranha that this year's team lives and dies with the 3 more than it should, but it appears we are on our way to the point where maybe there will be no such thing as taking too many 3's.

I would say it's human nature to look at a game and comment on what could have been done differently and/or more effectively.  That said, I would not take that to mean that fans are confused over what's happening with this program or why we are not winning more games right now.  

 

1/06/2020 2:01 pm  #3


Re: The Glass is Half Full

Would having more structure on offense and some zone defense really retard progress? Dayton, VCU, SLU and Richmond are really good. (Will a sports book have a prop bet on Toppins’ dunks against GW?)

Davidson, URI, Mason, Duquesne, Mason better than us. If the high end lottery ticket goal is 7 conference wins where are they coming from or do I just count turkeys and Strahans?

Btw the Dayton and VCU meet up January 14 and February 18.

 

1/06/2020 2:34 pm  #4


Re: The Glass is Half Full

They are going to win a few that you don't see coming.  Splitting with Mason and even Richmond are distinct possibilities.  

 

1/06/2020 2:58 pm  #5


Re: The Glass is Half Full

I've tried to explain this before but while JC would like to win every game this season, he is more focused on getting the structure of his program right. That might mean in some case sacrificing short-term wins to obtain long-term success.

So when you see us shoot more threes than we are capable of this year there is a reason. When you see us not play zone this season there is a reason. Yes, maybe hose things would help this year. But maybe they would also set back some of the fundamental parts of JC's program. JC said yesterday in relation to a question about playing zone that he really wants his team to focus on being good at man defense. So apparently JC is willing to forego playing zone until he feels the man defense is at a place where he wants it.

This is all a factor of how this program has been decimated over the previous three seasons, bit by bit. It will take considerable rebuilding. I say don't get caught up in the trees but look at the forest. The only question at the end of the season that should be relevant is did we improve and have we laid the foundation for future success. Winning 15 v 12 games really won't make a difference long-term. I'd rather lose now so we can win later personally. And as a result, while it is certainly reasonable to analyze each game, it is the trends that matter not the individual outcomes. Recall that Lonergan took an 17 win team and won 10 games in his first year. However, he laid the groundwork for a NCAA appearance just 2 years later and regular post-season appearances thereafter.

 

1/06/2020 3:39 pm  #6


Re: The Glass is Half Full

I second Barry's post.

I'm an optimist by nature regardless, and we're GW not Kentucky so getting all twisted into rage fits over a middling A10 program seems ill founded.  I am disappointed as to how a program that won 3 NCAA tourney games in a  2 year span, has now gone a Quarter century (my time as a fan) with a total of 1 NCAA win, but that's the past.  We should be better than we've been much of the last 2 decades and I'd wager will be in a few years, but this is a roster in flux and not going to win a lot of games this year no matter what magic wand is waived.

New Coach, time to rebuild. The wins and losses do not matter much imo, the caliber of the recruiting and the progress of how the players are doing.   Its very early on that front so I'd give a grade of N/A to date, with an optimistic take on most of the things worthy of some praise.  Coaching changes are rarely smooth or seamless so bumps in the road are baked into the cake

 

 

1/06/2020 3:47 pm  #7


Re: The Glass is Half Full

Doesn't matter if we have Gordon Ramsey in the kitchen, our cupboard is filled with Spaghetti O's. I think the system and game plan is clear, the pieces are just clearly not there. Need an inside presence who can block shots and need more sharp shooters.

Will admit that having to rebuild sucks after having a crumby 3 years on the decline. At least we're not the Jets  

 

1/06/2020 5:27 pm  #8


Re: The Glass is Half Full

Clearly, anyone drawing any long-term conclusions about this team, coach or program based on the season to date is jumping the gun. 11 wins might be a tad optimistic on BGF´s part, though.
It is the fundamental weaknesses that frustrate. Sure some of it is due to inexperience and a talent deficit (neither of which ought to worry us in the long run), but there are also a plethora of sub-Division I muck ups that we are right to be frustrated over (Maceo blowing multiple 3-on-1´s as FQ alluded to in another thread, for example) and that make us question the whole package. 2019-20 was never going to be about wins and losses, and it is not. Justin Herbert and the Mighty Oregon Fighting Ducks went 4-8 in 2016, now (once again) they are ROSE BOWL CHAMPIONS. What is to say JNJr will not have the same career trajectory? Then again, what is to say he will?

 

1/06/2020 6:32 pm  #9


Re: The Glass is Half Full

Junior has talent, he just needs to get smarter and work on his 3 pt shooting.   I think he'll be damn good by his Junior year.  hehe.

 

1/07/2020 4:01 pm  #10


Re: The Glass is Half Full

Rising I get your point bc clearly that is JC's plan. I'm in full agreement that progress NOT wins are the measuring stick this year. I was hoping that progress would also include maximizing the talent he has. I hope the thing that drove crazy about Hobbs doesn't happen again. Hobbs loved to run and press, but I thought his teams often lacked the poise and basketball smarts to win with that style in the crunch as opposed to something closer to Davidson. Put another way. The mid major brass ring is the upset and big winners of upsets are those that can compensate for a talent difference and JC's style appears to be predicated on excellent fast paced decision making and I don't remember too many GW teams that were great at that.

 

1/07/2020 4:04 pm  #11


Re: The Glass is Half Full

And Brod is right on the money. A rebuild would be so much easier to take if it wasn't for 3 years in the wilderness,

 

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