Mayhem-Beautifully done!

This is a great read, heckuva story

Perseverence ...

https://theathletic.com/4348076/2023/03/27/final-four-uconn-ncaa-tournament-dan-hurley/
 

Gwmayhem wrote:

The Dude wrote:

This is a great read, heckuva story

Perseverence ...

https://theathletic.com/4348076/2023/03/27/final-four-uconn-ncaa-tournament-dan-hurley/
 

Perseverance?  That's a great big word for you Dude.  You spelled it wrong, but I am still proud of you.

 

Let’s leave the personal attacks for the old board, please.  They don’t help anything here.

As improbable as Florida Atlantic was this year, this run involving CC ....HAS to be the most improbable in history capped by a massive win over an absolutely loaded UConn #1 seed 

2006 George Mason Patriots (11-seed)

After losing to Hofstra in the semifinal of the CAA tournament, it looked like George Mason might be left out of the NCAA tournament. But the Patriots got an at-large bid ahead of the Pride and made history after that. Jim Larranaga guided his team to wins over three of the biggest programs in the sport, beating 6-seed Michigan State in the first round, 3-seed North Carolina in the second round, knocking off 7-seed Wichita State in the Sweet 16 --

and then the biggest stunner of them all, an 86-84 victory over 1-seed UConn, arguably the tournament favorite.

Last edited by The Dude (3/28/2023 7:08 pm)

The Dude wrote:

North Texas beats Wisconsin!  UAB vs North Texas NIT Title game.  All Conference USA final. 

Along with Florida Atlantic in The Final 4, what a post-season for that league.

Wisconsin without Bo Ryan has slid from NCAA title contender to team that can't score on North Texas in the NIT  

 

And Charlotte won the CBI (flowed of course by their best players hitting the portal).

CUSA is having a postseason for the ages at 17-1. 

UAB probably should have been in the tourney.  North Texas might have had a slightly stronger resume, but UAB lost a couple games when Jelly Walker was hurt, and  you know BCS teams would get a break for losing when their star was out. They are one of three teams that beat FAU, and take out those two losses without Jelly (incl home to North Texas) and they just looked like a tourney team every time I saw them.  I certainly would have rather have seen them in the dance than Nevada or providence, who both lost 3 straight heading into the tourney and then got beat easily first round.  Or teams like ASU, NC St, or an Illinois team that slumped to 4-6 after Feb 1 and would have lost 4 straight heading into the dance without a double OT win.

As an aside, I would really like to see the NCAA bring back the last 10 games metric into the criteria.  Seems like removing it was just another way to pump up the middling bcs teams at the expense of the UABs and North Texas if the world.

Free Quebec wrote:

The Dude wrote:

North Texas beats Wisconsin!  UAB vs North Texas NIT Title game.  All Conference USA final. 

Along with Florida Atlantic in The Final 4, what a post-season for that league.

Wisconsin without Bo Ryan has slid from NCAA title contender to team that can't score on North Texas in the NIT  

 

And Charlotte won the CBI (flowed of course by their best players hitting the portal).

CUSA is having a postseason for the ages at 17-1. 

UAB probably should have been in the tourney.  North Texas might have had a slightly stronger resume, but UAB lost a couple games when Jelly Walker was hurt, and  you know BCS teams would get a break for losing when their star was out. They are one of three teams that beat FAU, and take out those two losses without Jelly (incl home to North Texas) and they just looked like a tourney team every time I saw them.  I certainly would have rather have seen them in the dance than Nevada or providence, who both lost 3 straight heading into the tourney and then got beat easily first round.  Or teams like ASU, NC St, or an Illinois team that slumped to 4-6 after Feb 1 and would have lost 4 straight heading into the dance without a double OT win.

As an aside, I would really like to see the NCAA bring back the last 10 games metric into the criteria.  Seems like removing it was just another way to pump up the middling bcs teams at the expense of the UABs and North Texas if the world.

💯

Agreed, all around.  This post-season has been full display for more bids for these schools, we need more 2006 George Masons, and less 17-14 Power 5s

Free Quebec wrote:

I would argue that the portal also makes it harder for some teams to gel early in the season so how teams are playing late should probably get a least some consideration. But it won’t change because ignoring a team that limps into the end of the season benefits the mediocre big money boyz who are trying to hoard the pie.

No doubt. There's data that confirms the correlation to teams winning late in the season and success in the tourney.

 

The four hottest teams entering this year's tournament were:

Duke (2nd round loser)
Marquette (2nd round loser)
Charleston (1st round loser)
Florida Atlantic (still going)

The real exception to the rule is obviously Florida Atlantic.  Normally, teams from mid or lower level conferences who arrive at the dance on a hot streak have to play a major program and at that point, the talent and athleticism of the major program takes over.  Plenty of exceptions like a Mason, VCU, or now, a Florida Atlantic playing their way into the final 4.  Interesting that Charlston gets tripped up by a Mountain West school (who happens to be playing like a high powered major).

Free Quebec wrote:

The Dude wrote:

Free Quebec wrote:

I would argue that the portal also makes it harder for some teams to gel early in the season so how teams are playing late should probably get a least some consideration. But it won’t change because ignoring a team that limps into the end of the season benefits the mediocre big money boyz who are trying to hoard the pie.

No doubt. There's data that confirms the correlation to teams winning late in the season and success in the tourney.

 

Could you share the data?  I’m not aware of it, though to me it makes sense. (I would expect it be more generally about the finish to the season or last month, rather than judging anything off a conference tourney that a team may or may not be motivated for.

Gary Parish said it on air  and they posted the graphic on the March Madness 360 show

Just as it seems every year the teams blazing hot tend to do well the teams where the wheels have fallen off limping in getting knocked out early

It’s also important to look at who was not hot.

Purdue lost 4 of their last 8 regular season games, but got a 1 seed anyway after winning B10 tourney. (Though still 7-4 in last 11 doesn’t feel like a 1).   They lost to a 16.

I wouldn’t agree that Duke was hot.  They won the ACC tourney (conf tourney winners always overrated), but they lost their last two regular season games vs ncaa teams and just beat a bunch of lesser teams late.

MD and WVU both went 5-5 in their last 10, but got an 8-9 game - one of them had to win, and then that team wasn’t competitive with their 1 seed.

Nevada lost 3 straight to end the season, all vs non-tourney teams.  They got embarrassed vs a not so good ASU team.  Tourney would have been better served with a hot team than a team like NV that stunk in March. 

ASU was nothing special late either, going 5-8 in their last 13 regular season games. That got ignored and a win over an unmotivated USC team got them a bid and a chance to play America’s coldest team (and then another cold team in TCU, who beat them).

Like Nevada, Providence lost 3 straight coming in (also lost 4 of 5 and 5 of 9) and were not competitive vs Kentucky (a team that lost to Vandy twice in a week coming in). 

Iowa St went 3-7 down the stretch, still got a 6 seed… and their form held with them losing to an 11.

Auburn was also ice cold.  4-6 last ten, 5-9 last 14.  They drew a not hot Iowa team (5-5 last ten - lost last two games both to non-postseason teams). One of them had to win, but of course auburn, who bucked their trend by beating Iowa, got smoked vs their 1 seed. 

NC St limped in at 5-5 last ten and didn’t beat an ncaa team after Jan 14, and not surprisingly got thumped in round 1.

Boise St lost 3 of their last 5, and wasn’t that competitive with Northwestern (another cold team they lost 4 of 5 coming in, although was 6-4 in their last 10).

Illinois lost 3 out 4 and went 4-6 in their last 10. Got thumped by a cold Arkansas that went 3-6 to close.

One clear theme is that a lot of these 6-11 seeds limped in to the tourney, and the ones who didn’t play each other tended to do poorly (though obviously not always).



(As an aside, Texas A&M and Penn St were both hot teams going 8-2 last 10, but drew each other, which was pretty unlucky for them.).