Rutgers should make it the Tourney. They rank 31st in KenPom and have some strong wins. Providence could make it if they go far in the Big East Tournament.  I don’t really see a path for any of the other teams unless they win their conference tournament.

Syracuse is an interesting case. 16-12, but 51 KenPom. My gut says no, but they’ve made the tournament with worse resumes.

Syracuse seems to be on the bubble ever year for the past 10 years!! The problem is, in most of the BCS conferences a 9-9 or 8-10 type of team has played so many teams with great metric numbers, that their metric numbers will look great regardless of how good they are or how good the conference opponent is. An example of this was last weekend, Georgetown played at DePaul, who was 1-12 or 1-13 in Big East play, if Georgetown had won that game, it would have been considered a Quad 1 win and been a boost to their NCAA tournament resume. So beating the last place team actually gives you a boost??

Georgetown is not going to get in unless they win the Big East tournament, but the fact that they were THAT(1 or 2 more wins) close to being in with all the injuries and transfers is impressive.

I saw some of Rutgers last game at Penn State and the announcers said they were like 1-8 in Big 10 road games(the 1 road win was at lowly Nebraska) and one of the bracket experts had them as an 11 seed, which means they are barely in at this point. Rutgers may need a few more wins to feel secure 

Providence won at Villanova today.  I think that's going to put them into the dance.

17 wins already and enough of a resume that looks like Ed Cooley's boys will need their dancing shoes again

UVA beat Duke, UVA had been in legit trouble of missing a berth but that should seal their ticket.

Duke I believe has lost 4 straight games, you don't see that often

Davidson or any team wins The A10 tourney, who is not expected to get a bid, we'd have 4 teams, maybe 3 If URI is shut out.  If Dayton wins the tourney and URI is passed over, yeah only  2 could happen, worst case scenario.

2 though, seems very unlikely, unless Dayton wins the A10 Tourney and then only Richmond is granted a bid. But in any other circumstance, looks more like 3 teams, maybe 4.     VCU, Davidson, SLU, any of those teams could steal a bid by winning our tourney.

A GW win would be shocking! but stranger things have happened!  


 

Thomas, agreed.

Another path is just one Dayton win, if you add one Dayton win, it would put a bubble team in.  Rare year to have an A10 team that's such a resume boost but this is that year.

What about VCU and SLU? can either team with a strong finish and a Dayton win in the tourney land a bid?

Or are the at large candidate bids down to Dayton, Richmond, and Rhode Island no matter what happens henceforth?

BGF,  I just think that a second A10 team will have to emerge as a lock for the tournament, right now it looks like it will be Richmond or Rhode Island who are both 12-4 in conference. Rhode Island's next game is at home against Dayton, so they could probably secure an NCAA bid if they knock off Dayton. Duquesne, St.Lous and St.Bonaventure are all 10-6, maybe one of them can emerge as a lock if they finish 12-6 and make it to the championship game.  My scenario is that, Dayton and Richmond or Rhode Island will be the 2 locks, and a 3rd team out of Richmond/Rhode Island, Duquesne, St.Louis, St.Bonaventure or Davidson will win the A10 tournament. 

The Dude,  I think St.Louis has the best shot to emerge as an at-large team, outside of the top 3 teams in Dayton, Rhode Island and Richmond. There is a slight chance that St.Louis can finish 2nd with a 12-6 record, they did okay in non-conference play, and they've won 3 straight games. St.Louis could be peaking at the right time. VCU has no shot an at-large bid. VCU's late season slump really ruined the A10's chances of getting 3 or 4 teams into the tournament. A couple weeks ago, the A10 appeared to have at least 3 locks for the tournament until VCU lost at home to George Mason and went into a tailspin, and then Rhode Island losing at home to St.Louis earlier today. 

Currently, there are 5 A-10 teams in the top 60 of the NET rankings.  That, plus dayton being a 1 or 2 seed, should mean that at least one more A-10 team gets the benefit of the doubt (right now Richmond, with I think a 3-4 record against quad 1 teams would seem to have a surprisingly strong case, URI is close too).  It really depends how these teams finish and play in Brooklyn, but 2-3 teams seems certain with an outside chance for a 4th if, say VCU beats Richmond or URI in the finals of the tourney. 

It's amusing to me...I'm always the optimist about GW, but I stand by my statement.  2 teams maximum from the A-10, with a chance of just 1.  

BTW, that's not what I think the league deserves, but the Big 10, Big 12, and WCC are all going to get more bids than usual.  Even with the ACC down, there are mid-majors who have great at-large cases...if any one of them loses in their league's final, it makes it that much harder.