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6/16/2020 3:52 pm  #1


Good Signs

It's a pretty helpless feeling being a sports fan these days.  There is a big part of me that feels like fans will not be attending any U.S. sporting events for a long while.  That of course would include GW games.  After witnessing on television large gatherings on beaches, in bars, at protests, etc., and subsequently watching Covid numbers subsequently spike in markets that were quick to reopen, I don't see it happening. And this is all before the anticipated resurgence in the fall.  Plus, indoor gatherings have been deemed more dangerous than outdoor ones.   I think they will try to stage the games for television but it will take one disastrous story to do away with those plans.

At the same time, I find myself thinking about the moves that JC and staff have made in just over a year on the job and I feel very optimistic.  I've broken down the components of building back up a program to three categories and here is what I see:

1) Talent.  A year or so ago, I was openly questioning why JC seemed hell-bent on bringing in talent which could be easily scrutinized as not being A10 caliber.  Shawn Walker Jr. was to play for JC at Siena.  Sloan Seymour had already played for him at Siena.  Same was true for Ace Stallings at Mount St. Mary's.  Plus, the school, waiting too long to remove MoJo's interim tag, coupled with the Lonergan dismissal, resulted in many talented players transferring out combined with a subpar recruiting class (of which Maceo is the only remaining member).  Credit to MoJo and his regime for signing Jamison and Chase early on.  Along with JC's recruitment of JNJ, and the transfer by Amir Harris (more on him later), the building blocks started to fall into place.  While it's difficult to know how well the killer-bee recruiting class of Ball, Brelsford and Brown will perform, there has been a notable upgrade based on transfers being brought in.     James Bishop and Ricky Lindo are substantial upgrades in talent.  Bishop was not given much of an opportunity to play at LSU, playing behind a particularly guard-heavy team.  The Terps were enamored with Lindo's athleticism but Donta Smith came along and picked up many of the minutes he thought he'd be receiving last season.  Matthew Moyer will only play one season for GW and while he hasn't put his game together yet at Syracuse or Vandy, his natural talent has a chance to shine in DC.  And while Hunter Dean's stats in half a season at Southern Miss would not impress anyone, I can tell you that GW's coaching staff is incredibly high on his abilities in the paint.

2) Team Building.  This is what I refer to as a coach finding players who can thrive playing the way he would like them to play.  This is where a Sloan Seymour fits in.  Even if his game turns out to be one dimensional, his ability to drain threes would be coveted at any level.  Whenever next season will be, we will noticeably have greater depth.  We will have greater three point shooting consistency.  We will have athletes who will like to get up and down the floor quickly.  My only question deals with defense.  Seymour (based on what I've seen and read), Jack and Battle each have defensive limitations in my mind.  Could you play all three together and get away with this?  Could you even play two of the three together and get away with it? (Yes, last season, Maceo and Jamison played a lot together, out of necessity due to a lack of depth.  And, the team lost a lot of games.)  I'll be paying attention to lineup construction and whether at times, we look too vulnerable on defense or whether the potent offense more than compensates for this.

3) Luck.  Rather than look at true lucky variables like our defensive FT%, I'll instead equate luck with the team's health and this is specifically where Amir Harris comes in.    A healthy Amir would be one of the better players on this team.  Yet "a healthy Amir" really might be a stretch at this point.  It's very difficult to know whether Amir could play effectively come November, whether he could use another full season to recover, or whether his basketball career may be over due to an assortment of meniscus and leg injuries.  Beyond Amir, last year proved to be a challenging one when it came to staying healthy with only Maceo and Jamison being the only Colonials to play in every game.  Considering that the normal off-season team conditioning program will likely be altered this season (which will inevitably include a cancellation of the Kenner League unless they play it without fans which I would not foresee), the Colonials will need some good luck this year in the medical department. 

 

6/17/2020 10:34 am  #2


Re: Good Signs

Gwmayhem, I liked your post a lot. Like BM's post yesterday, it got me thinking about things and makes me feel like we're on a good path. 

I feel our returning players have a lot of talent and are going to be really good this season.  And, I believe in JC and that he has recruited many more talented players to play with the returning core. So I am very optimistic about the quantity and quality of our players.  I am very interested to see how the coaches put all the pieces together this year.  It seems to me that we have so many more options and so much more athleticism that I can't help but to expect the team building transformation is going to be successful. By the end of the year, I think the fan base will be extremely happy.  And luck always is part of the equation. But I feel JC and the players are also somewhat responsible for making their own luck, and I am pretty certain that's going to happen because of the positive energy he (JC) brings to the program.  I understand sometimes good luck means not getting hurt, or catching an opponent on a bad night, or even making some shots or grabbing some rebounds that doesn't normally happen.  And bad luck means the opposite. I believe that during the season there's always a bit of both, but the coach's job is to make sure the team is put into a position to have more good luck than bad.  And I am as sure as I can be that JC is that kind of coach because he's student of the game with a wonderful perspective and attitude.  Lastly, we have to have a season!  I don't know that anyone has any control over that.  But I am hopeful the NCAA will find a way, just like I'm hopeful, maybe we'll find a way to eliminate or reduce the threat of the virus 
 

Last edited by 22ndandF (6/17/2020 10:34 am)

 

6/17/2020 10:47 am  #3


Re: Good Signs

Good points! I still can't believe how JC has turned over the roster with what appears to be better talent all the way around.  He must be very engaging and must present a fine "game plan" for both the hoops and educational programs at GW.  I have been and still am looking forward to this team performing, even if it is only on TV and not in person.  

 

6/17/2020 1:49 pm  #4


Re: Good Signs

I have said from Day One this was a fantastic hire by GW. I think some of you are learning that it might take a minute but the man has a plan. I will be shocked if it doesn't work out given his tireless energy and passion for being a coach along with his attention to every detail. Yes, we lost to Fordham 3 times, lost to American and Morgan State. It takes time for a plan to come together and get the right personnel to execute that plan. We are now on our way. I am pretty certain that in 2-3 years no one is going to concern themselves with those losses. The concern will then be can we keep him here. We are about to enter another good era of GW basketball - perhaps as good as any before. 

 

6/17/2020 1:53 pm  #5


Re: Good Signs

Gwmayhem wrote:

...
3) Luck.  Rather than look at true lucky variables like our defensive FT%, I'll instead equate luck with the team's health and this is specifically where Amir Harris comes in.    A healthy Amir would be one of the better players on this team.  Yet "a healthy Amir" really might be a stretch at this point.  It's very difficult to know whether Amir could play effectively come November, whether he could use another full season to recover, or whether his basketball career may be over due to an assortment of meniscus and leg injuries.  Beyond Amir, last year proved to be a challenging one when it came to staying healthy with only Maceo and Jamison being the only Colonials to play in every game.  Considering that the normal off-season team conditioning program will likely be altered this season (which will inevitably include a cancellation of the Kenner League unless they play it without fans which I would not foresee), the Colonials will need some good luck this year in the medical department. 

Barring a medical miracle, I wouldn't count on seeing Amir in 2020-21. And as to his future beyond that, I don't think anyone knows at this point.  TBD in Summer 2021.

 

6/17/2020 2:45 pm  #6


Re: Good Signs

GWRising, I don't know why you're of the mindset that anyone who expresses outrage, disappointment, or any other justifiable emotion after some truly inexcusable losses are incapable of understanding that JC was a good hire, or that he had a plan.  The losses you mentioned were all terrible.  Losing to AU and Morgan State on our home court?  Losing three times to a Fordham team which didn't beat any other A10 team all season?  Those losses deserved to be scrutinized and I don't care at what stage of the plan JC and staff were at or even what our personnel looked like.  (And yet, it would stand to reason that our personnel those days were more talented than those of AU, Morgan state or Fordham.)

The same people who were pissed over these losses were also celebrating big wins against Davidson and at Duquesne.  Does that make them hypocrites?  No, it makes them fans.

Tell me who's been suggesting that JC was the wrong hire all along?  Tell me who claimed that he can't coach?  Tell me who is wondering whether he even has a plan?

You sound like you're waiting to pounce on people once this team turns the corner with a great big "I told you so."  But, who has opposed your point of view?  Who do you feel you're going up against?  People who were taken aback and then some by several embarrassing losses?  It may interest you to know that it's OK to be embarrassed by these losses and yet simultaneously have faith in JC and his staff.

The irony is not lost on me.  Several weeks ago, in a political discussion, you were accusing others of labeling, stereotyping, etc.  Why can't someone be a bit embarrassed by our President's words and actions and yet still be supportive of his policies, you wondered.  And here you are, doing the very same thing from a GW basketball perspective as you suggested others were guilty of doing from a political perspective. 
 

     Thread Starter
 

6/17/2020 3:09 pm  #7


Re: Good Signs

We have a few "new" posters here who arrived after JC was hired. Nothing wrong with that. It happens with every regime change. But please spare us "old timers" from the biased BS. I have heard similar comments about the last 7 coaches, 3 who have succeeded (Jarvis, Hobbs, Lonergan) and 3 who didn't (Kuester, Penders, Joseph). We will soon find out what list JC belongs on.

JC's honeymoon is over. The next couple years will say a lot about his coaching, recruiting and in-game decision making. He will be judged on his wins and losses, not on his biggest fan's belief that we are about to enter the best era of GW Basketball!

Let's get back into the top 5 or 6 Atlantic 10 teams before stressing about him being plucked by a Power 5 team or naming him as the best coach in GW history. I'm sure JC will tell you the same thing when he see's you at the next family picnic.

 

6/17/2020 3:54 pm  #8


Re: Good Signs

Gwmayhem wrote:

GWRising, I don't know why you're of the mindset that anyone who expresses outrage, disappointment, or any other justifiable emotion after some truly inexcusable losses are incapable of understanding that JC was a good hire, or that he had a plan.  The losses you mentioned were all terrible.  Losing to AU and Morgan State on our home court?  Losing three times to a Fordham team which didn't beat any other A10 team all season?  Those losses deserved to be scrutinized and I don't care at what stage of the plan JC and staff were at or even what our personnel looked like.  (And yet, it would stand to reason that our personnel those days were more talented than those of AU, Morgan state or Fordham.)

The same people who were pissed over these losses were also celebrating big wins against Davidson and at Duquesne.  Does that make them hypocrites?  No, it makes them fans.

Tell me who's been suggesting that JC was the wrong hire all along?  Tell me who claimed that he can't coach?  Tell me who is wondering whether he even has a plan?

You sound like you're waiting to pounce on people once this team turns the corner with a great big "I told you so."  But, who has opposed your point of view?  Who do you feel you're going up against?  People who were taken aback and then some by several embarrassing losses?  It may interest you to know that it's OK to be embarrassed by these losses and yet simultaneously have faith in JC and his staff.

The irony is not lost on me.  Several weeks ago, in a political discussion, you were accusing others of labeling, stereotyping, etc.  Why can't someone be a bit embarrassed by our President's words and actions and yet still be supportive of his policies, you wondered.  And here you are, doing the very same thing from a GW basketball perspective as you suggested others were guilty of doing from a political perspective. 
 

Wow all that from a three line post? Not sure who crapped in your cornflakes today but none of that remotely resembles my post or intention.

Actually, I am emphasizing why there are good signs as you called them. No one said those were good losses or that if you thought those were bad losses you were against JC. I said no one will be concerned with them in 2-3 years assuming JC is successful. No one called anyone hypocrites. Some here did in fact suggest JC was not the right hire but my post wasn't even aimed at them. And why would it be? We went 12-17 last year. Not waiting to pounce on anyone because we haven't turned the corner yet except perhaps on paper.

It seems your post is looking for an argument. Have it with someone else. I am not playing.


 

 

6/17/2020 3:58 pm  #9


Re: Good Signs

Joel Joseph wrote:

We have a few "new" posters here who arrived after JC was hired. Nothing wrong with that. It happens with every regime change. But please spare us "old timers" from the biased BS. I have heard similar comments about the last 7 coaches, 3 who have succeeded (Jarvis, Hobbs, Lonergan) and 3 who didn't (Kuester, Penders, Joseph). We will soon find out what list JC belongs on.

JC's honeymoon is over. The next couple years will say a lot about his coaching, recruiting and in-game decision making. He will be judged on his wins and losses, not on his biggest fan's belief that we are about to enter the best era of GW Basketball!

Let's get back into the top 5 or 6 Atlantic 10 teams before stressing about him being plucked by a Power 5 team or naming him as the best coach in GW history. I'm sure JC will tell you the same thing when he see's you at the next family picnic.

Poor Joel always chasing from behind. Probably decided to enter the stock market in late February. Some see things before they happen others don't. You are entitled to your opinion. Lord wiling, I will be here in 2-3 years so you will know where to find me. 
 

 

6/17/2020 5:54 pm  #10


Re: Good Signs

I will say guardedly optimistic.  We hardly have a strong returning team, as we have lost our leading scorer.  We lost our leading scorer and assist player (Potter) and rebounder (Toro) from a 20 loss team that had far more embarassing losses than impressive wins.   Returning are 3 somewhat proven players in Jack, Nelson and Battle, and they each have holes in their game that need to be mended (although I think Jack came a long way on defense over the course of the season).   Otherwise, we are returning one player who showed us a brief glimpse (Chase Paar) and...am I leaving anyone out.   The rest are unproven freshmen or players transferring down from higher divisions who may or may not be solid A-10 players, the key word being "unproven".   I hope everything the program is saying about the newcomers is correct, but I need to see if for myself before I drink the Kool Aid.

 

6/17/2020 6:01 pm  #11


Re: Good Signs

Always a great pleasure to see LSF having the same convos over and over again with himself

GW Hoops in the offseason, a tradition like no other.

 

6/18/2020 10:31 am  #12


Re: Good Signs

GWRising, go back and reread the first two sentences of your first post on this thread,  Sentence one:  you've said from Day One that JC would be good for GW.  Sorry if you didn't mean it this way but I hope you can see how this comes off sounding a bit self-serving.  You could have just as easily said that JC has been a good coach everywhere he has been and GW should be no exception.  I hope you can understand the distinction between these two sentences.  Sentence two:  I think some of you are learning....  Do you have any idea how condescending or patronizing that sounds?  Why not just say, it's good to see that some of you are learning what I've known all along.  

Not looking to drag this out.  Suffice it to say that if you don't understand where I am coming from on this, I really can't explain it any differently.

LSF, there are of course never any guarantees for success so in that vain, we all must see it before we can believe it.  Nevertheless, there are some historical parameters that are worth noting.  First, the three GW successful coaching models I would hold up that I am familiar with are Jarvis, Hobbs and Lonergan.

Jarvis is really the exception to the rule.  Unlike Penders who inherited a very talented team from Jarvis and made an NCAA appearance in his first year, Jarvis took over a 14-17 squad who of course had been 1-27  a season earlier.  John Kuester's final team saw Mike Jones depart but almost everyone in the rotation to returned to Jarvis.  This included Ellis McKennie, Glen Sitney, Sonni Holland, Dirkk Surles and Rodney Patterson.  (I tend to forget that guys like Sonni and Dirkk were John Kuester recruits.)  Jarvis's main addition in Year 1 (aside from Bill Brigham sitting out as a transfer) was Alvin Pearsall.  Pearsall and Patterson took the reins at the point guard position, primarily from Ellis who had been playing the point under Kuester out of necessity.  Jarvis went 19-12 in that first season which I believe included an NIT appearance.  In Year 2, the team added Nimbo Hammons and of course, Brigham became eligible.  That team actually took a step backwards and finished 16-12.  Year 3 should be considered the first season with a practically full Mike Jarvis imprint.  Yinka, Kwame and Vaughn arrived as freshmen while Omo Moses transferred from Pitt.  This of course was the 21-9 Sweet 16 team.

For Karl Hobbs, he was hired late in the game.  Incoming freshmen included Penders recruits TJ Thompson (who Hobbs was initially not sold upon as his point guard) and Tamal Forchion.  The only true Hobbs recruit in year one was Darrio Scott.  The Pops/Mike/Omar class came in for Year 2 but it would take time for this team, still led by Chris Monroe, to gel.  Again, Year 3 might be considered the first practically full Hobbs imprint, adding Carl Elliott, JR Pinnock and Herndon's own Ricky Lucas.  After consecutive 12 win seasons under Hobbs, Year 3 resulted in an 18-12 record and an NIT appearance.  It of course preceded the first of three consecutive NCAA appearances.

The Lonergan trajectory was similar to Hobbs.  Year 1 consisted of coaching Hobbs's players almost exclusively (John Kopriva was the sole Lonergan recruit while Zeke Armwood sat out as a transfer) and Year 2 brought in the Core 4 plus an eligible Zeke.  Again, it took a while for the team to gel and a 10 win season was followed-up with a 13 win season.  Year 3 saw Mo Creek join the team and the result was a 24-9 record and an NCAA appearance.

While there is a solid core of Battle, Nelson Jr., Jack, and I would most certainly add Paar to this group, and am assuming Harris will not be playing, I think it would be a tall order to ask for great improvement next season.  Lindo needs to sit.  Moyer will help but has not been a true difference maker throughout his college career.  Bishop may or may not be eligible.  Three freshmen, plus Seymour and Dean, all must learn how to play with the returning players and among one another.  Then consider 2021-22 when only Jack and Moyer will be leaving, freshmen become sophomores, a high schooler from New Zealand looks to have a very high ceiling, Lindo gets to play, Bishop too if he had to sit out, and hopefully, Amir can contribute, you are then looking at a team with lots of depth and lots of options.  So again, Year 3 could be the magic formula.

The last point I'll make is that while past results are never an indicator of future success, GW has had a pretty good track record with transfers who have arrived from major programs.  This century, we have seen Armwood, Creek and Tyler Cavanaugh all succeed at a very high level at GW.  Transfers from midmajor or lower level programs, like Alex Mitiola, Patrick Steeves and Bo Ziegler, have each been serviceable but have not panned out quite the same way as those transferring down from major programs.    

     Thread Starter
 

6/18/2020 12:20 pm  #13


Re: Good Signs

Looks like GWrising is taking over The Dude's spot on this site.

Attack anyone who has a different opinion.

You and Dude may be the only ones left in 3 years if we don't start winning.

Also, I still have a full time job (explains my limited posts compared to yours) which pays very well and comes with a lifetime pension. My day trading hobby is purely "play money" for me. Here's a free tip for you Rising (so you can donate a few dollars to the "Colonial Fund") - Buy Southwest stock (LUV) - was at $25 a month ago and will be back up around $60 by the end of the year when travel starts back up!

 

6/18/2020 1:23 pm  #14


Re: Good Signs

The last thing GWRising needs or wants is other posters speaking for him. Still, I can’t help myself on this one. He and I are pretty far apart when it comes to politics and I seriously doubt that gap will ever be bridged. No matter. By nature, GW fans are skeptical and cynical about the school’s administrators and most particularly men’s basketball. JC’s hiring was met with the usual doubts and hopes as fan favorites and speculations, realistic and pipe dreams, were not hired. GWRising was first to the scene with enthusiastic endorsement of the selection based on personal knowledge. As always, he has been steadfast in his support of JC even as others worried about player departures, losses to AU and Morgan State and 3 times to Fordham, the lack of a zone defense in their repertoire, and an injury-driven drop off at the end of the season. We’ve been through these first year transformations before. I just don’t see how anyone can’t share the enthusiasm of the coaching staff, the players, and yes, the  strongly worded advocacy of GWRising. Christian has won everywhere he’s coached and the A10 is not a bridge too far. I get LSF’s personality-based caution but I also sense his underlying hope and optimism. The influx of talent is real. JC and Nima are ambassadors extraordinaire. If you think it’s a Kool-Aid party, fine. But we’ll be here waiting for the rest of the bus riders when all is said and done.

 

6/18/2020 1:27 pm  #15


Re: Good Signs

Folks, one other thing I forgot to ask/mention relates to Youtube video.  We have had the good fortune to watch so many of our players play for their high schools. I don't know if this kind of thing was available when Jarvis or Hobbs was coaching, but I must say that the players really seem outstanding.  I bring this up because being able to see them play gives me an idea as to what to expect.  And that alone is exciting because each of our new team members seem to have the skills to play and excel in the A10. Of course, there's more learning, growing and refining, but as far as skills already developed in high school, or at another college, all GW fans should be looking forward to good things over the next couple of years, and beyond, IMO. 

Last edited by 22ndandF (6/18/2020 2:04 pm)

 

6/18/2020 2:41 pm  #16


Re: Good Signs

Joel Joseph wrote:

Looks like GWrising is taking over The Dude's spot on this site.

Attack anyone who has a different opinion.

You and Dude may be the only ones left in 3 years if we don't start winning.

Also, I still have a full time job (explains my limited posts compared to yours) which pays very well and comes with a lifetime pension. My day trading hobby is purely "play money" for me. Here's a free tip for you Rising (so you can donate a few dollars to the "Colonial Fund") - Buy Southwest stock (LUV) - was at $25 a month ago and will be back up around $60 by the end of the year when travel starts back up!

You see Joel there you go again ... LATE. I was in on Southwest (LUV) stock back in mid-May. Believe I got it for 24.875 on May 14th. But thanks for the tip anyways. I am sure we will hear about JC from you after his first NCAA appearance. LATE.

 

6/18/2020 3:19 pm  #17


Re: Good Signs

Poog wrote:

The last thing GWRising needs or wants is other posters speaking for him. Still, I can’t help myself on this one. He and I are pretty far apart when it comes to politics and I seriously doubt that gap will ever be bridged. No matter. By nature, GW fans are skeptical and cynical about the school’s administrators and most particularly men’s basketball. JC’s hiring was met with the usual doubts and hopes as fan favorites and speculations, realistic and pipe dreams, were not hired. GWRising was first to the scene with enthusiastic endorsement of the selection based on personal knowledge. As always, he has been steadfast in his support of JC even as others worried about player departures, losses to AU and Morgan State and 3 times to Fordham, the lack of a zone defense in their repertoire, and an injury-driven drop off at the end of the season. We’ve been through these first year transformations before. I just don’t see how anyone can’t share the enthusiasm of the coaching staff, the players, and yes, the strongly worded advocacy of GWRising. Christian has won everywhere he’s coached and the A10 is not a bridge too far. I get LSF’s personality-based caution but I also sense his underlying hope and optimism. The influx of talent is real. JC and Nima are ambassadors extraordinaire. If you think it’s a Kool-Aid party, fine. But we’ll be here waiting for the rest of the bus riders when all is said and done.

Thanks Poog. I love it when people assume what you meant instead of asking what you meant first (assuming any ambiguity). Such is the way of the internet and social media these days. 
 

Last edited by GWRising (6/18/2020 3:19 pm)

 

6/19/2020 12:41 pm  #18


Re: Good Signs

Poog wrote:

The last thing GWRising needs or wants is other posters speaking for him. Still, I can’t help myself on this one. He and I are pretty far apart when it comes to politics and I seriously doubt that gap will ever be bridged. No matter. By nature, GW fans are skeptical and cynical about the school’s administrators and most particularly men’s basketball. JC’s hiring was met with the usual doubts and hopes as fan favorites and speculations, realistic and pipe dreams, were not hired. GWRising was first to the scene with enthusiastic endorsement of the selection based on personal knowledge. As always, he has been steadfast in his support of JC even as others worried about player departures, losses to AU and Morgan State and 3 times to Fordham, the lack of a zone defense in their repertoire, and an injury-driven drop off at the end of the season. We’ve been through these first year transformations before. I just don’t see how anyone can’t share the enthusiasm of the coaching staff, the players, and yes, the strongly worded advocacy of GWRising. Christian has won everywhere he’s coached and the A10 is not a bridge too far. I get LSF’s personality-based caution but I also sense his underlying hope and optimism. The influx of talent is real. JC and Nima are ambassadors extraordinaire. If you think it’s a Kool-Aid party, fine. But we’ll be here waiting for the rest of the bus riders when all is said and done.

Poog, I'm happy to hear confirmation that JC and Nima are both great representatives for GW and GW basketball.  I think those skills alone will go a long way to creating an exciting Smith Center!  When you couple the ability to promote with great coaching skills, GW won't have to wait for me to get on the bus. I'm on it now!

 

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