GWRising, so are you in agreement with Bill Maher's opinion that millennials without underlying conditions should essentially proceed with their lives as if Covid-19 does not exist?  Because that's what I am referring to, Bill Maher using his platform to give what I felt was an insensitive opinion.  

Of course I am not cool with all of the serious non-Covid ramifications you pointed out.  And, nobody is suggesting that there are any simple solutions to any of this.  So again I'll ask:  are you in agreement with Bill Maher's solution to help stimulate the economy?  If so, that's fine.  We can agree to disagree.  Wouldn't exactly be the first time.

Not comfortable talking here about issues non-GW basketball related,but this hugely affects GW basketball.   
Was going to add talking about controversial issues, but don't really understand how things like science in general and wearing a mask, which people even knew to do 100 years ago is controversial, but sadly it is. 
Saw the Bill Maher disappointing and dangerous comment live, but  he probably doesn't even have the scientific and medical credentials of the Doctor Scholl's or even Sholl's cafeteria.
    And Maher bravely made his statement from the safety of his Hollywood area home, where his show is now broadcast from and he receives deliveries of everything from food to pot. Every time people are urged to do things that can spread the virus, our extremely slim hopes of seeing GW basketball in person, slide toward none.
Also don't understand how, if we already printed money to pay for it anyway as GW Rising said correctly, we can't afford the economic costs of trying to slow down the effect of the virus, particularly since it will cost the economy more if more people become significantly ill.
   But again, this particular venue comes down to GW basketball. In the many radical changes that this has forced upon people, was hoping to see a GW game this year. Even if often painful in its own way. GW basketball is an escape from the regular world. Don't believe that will happen because it may not be an option and not worth the risk for most here. Colleges as planning to shut down at Thanksgiving, as Dr. Mike, who has some important personal insight on this, points out.
  Just saw Bowdoin College pres on CNBC and they are having really big changes--no fall athletics, only freshman, temperature checked daily, everyone on campus tested twice a week. Only single rooms. Now this is hardly GW in terms of location, nor would it probably work to have Thurston Hall as single rooms only (though many may have dreamed of that, particularly those in the room of 6s). Nor are Bowdoin athletics comparable at all to even us. But it does provide food for thought as how universities will handle this--and what will happen if the virus hits universities mid-semester.
   Think we may start out with the idea that there can be limited attendance. And social distancing, unfortunately, is rarely a problem with GW basketball. But there are only a few entrances and communal bathrooms. Can we sit safely next to the people we've had tickets with or near for years who are not members of our households?
There will be a second wave, at least according to the experts. Hope not, but it seems likely. And compounding this, we haven't gotten past our first wave. It is increasing in other parts of the country and we we are scheduled to play games in a lot of different states and locations.
It's folly to say that young people are not seriously affected because many have been, even though proportionally less. Still a significant amount of needless deaths and severe lifetime consequences. Who wants our younger generations to be the canaries in the coal mines?  
There is a possibility of playing games without fans with regular testing. Hard to see the NCAA giving up its March Madness cash cow for the second time and it was a shame to see Dayton's great No. 1 hopes extinguished, even though it was of course, necessary.
   If this had been handled properly from the beginning, instead of sadly becoming a political football and outlet for bizarre grandstanding on scientific issues not only by leaders but individuals, we might have been in a situation where could return to GW basketball. This would have been great contribution to our sanity (or insanity as a Colonial fan) as we could personally indulge in our passion.
  But the age demographics of the GW season ticketholder and the current trendlines work against it for many people, especially here. Maybe they will come up with something about testing players and we can see the games on the Internet/TV. That might be the best we can hope for.
Hopefully, in this thread, we can keep it polite and as centered on arguments whether we will have GW basketball as possible.
Losing the chance to see GW basketball not even a blip on the sacrifice scale of human tragedy and everyday heroics. It is a very small thing, and yet another manifestation of the current disturbing situation.


 

GWRising, thank you for expressing your point of view. While I don't see how you (and a lot of people who agree with you) can come to certain conclusions about the science being unsettled, at least as it relates to ways to dramatically minimize the spread, I do respect that you have considered many other points of view and believe you are presenting what you consider logical. 

I wish you peace and good health in your journey toward obtaining more facts, proof and, truth.  Between now and then, I hope you'll join me in doing whatever you can bring yourself to do in order to make life safer and happier for our great GW players, their families, and our fellow citizens.    

Last edited by 22ndandF (6/25/2020 3:52 pm)

Just listen to the damn experts giving recommendations based on what's known at the time. They spend their lives studying this stuff, and people think they know more than experts based on what they see come across their Facebook timelines. Yes, scientific understanding is evolving, but that doesn't mean don't trust or listen to the experts. They're the ones who know best how to interpret the data and give actionable recommendations based on what is known at a given time.

Fauci never said it's nothing to worry about. He said there's no reason to change behavior, at the point when  evidence of community spread was low. Since then, we've learned just how much asymptomatic transmission has contributed to the pandemic, which makes critical the importance of social distancing, wearing a mask, and robust testing scaled to the population. But the administration's gross negligence and incompetence, and the president's utter lack of caring about anyone other than himself, means this is going to last longer than it otherwise would and there is going to be incalculable additional suffering. All this talk about the trade-off about opening the economy versus containing the virus is pointless. The economy doesn't open UNTIL the virus is contained. I don't understand why that's so difficult to comprehend. If, say, the president shuts things down one week earlier, two weeks earlier, comes up with a real plan to contain the spread other than tweeting that cases will be at 0 by next week, not only are lives saved, but there is less impact on the economy and things can get relatively closer to "opening" sooner. But he's just not smart enough, and doesn't care enough, to think strategically about these things. Other countries are starting to get through this, while we're setting records right now for cases. It's not just a coincidence or bad luck. 

Cutis, I assume you are referring to me. I did not say masks do not work. I said there is no definitive proof that they do. The study you cite is not evidence for that ... it is a predictive model based on estimates of deaths (which by the way has a range) which also includes social distancing and hand washing practices so it is hard to distill out the effects of the mask alone versus those other practices. Plus, I would caution you that this particular UW group has made very wrong predictions before about deaths before both high and low. I am not criticizing them just saying this is further evidence that there is a lot more that we don't know than we do know.

Again, I am not anti-mask and in fact wear them everywhere. But it is not as crazy as some in the media would lead you to believe to think otherwise currently and that was my point.

There are studies that suggests that masks do not reduce the spread of viruses like COVID-19.

Please read the science cited in the below article:

https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy

Now, it is true that most of the studies looked at face mask use in health care, not community, settings. And they were observational, not the gold standard of science, a randomized controlled trial of COVID, which would obviously be very unethical to conduct in the midst of a pandemic given the potential for death and serious illness. 

So the answer is we really don't really know for sure  - there is evidence pro and con - and that is all I was saying. I come down on the side that if we don't know err on the side of caution. Others may take a different view. I may disagree but I don't think they are bat shit crazy to question it.
 

Cmon, you're holding up one phd saying masks don't work, compared to 99% of other public health experts saying they do, including the CDC. Now is not the time to wait for 'definitive' (RCT) proof, but if you need it, we can wait a few years because the U.S. is providing a very nice natural control group of non-masks wearers, compared to the rest of the world. I disagree with you, anyone questioning recommendations from public health experts during a global pandemic are batshit crazy.

Hugh wrote:

Cmon, you're holding up one phd saying masks don't work, compared to 99% of other public health experts saying they do, including the CDC. Now is not the time to wait for 'definitive' (RCT) proof, but if you need it, we can wait a few years because the U.S. is providing a very nice natural control group of non-masks wearers, compared to the rest of the world. I disagree with you, anyone questioning recommendations from public health experts during a global pandemic are batshit crazy.

Hugh how many times have the public health experts been wrong on COVID-19? Remember, no human to human transmission? No threat to ordinary Americans? 2.2 million could die? Should I go on? Because I can give you a list of so-called "expert" statements that turned out wrong that would make your head spin. That's why there is little trust in some quarters with respect to the "experts". Their track record has been horrendous. Doesn't make them wrong on this but who should have a high degree of confidence that in 2 months they won't come back with a different completely opposite recommendation. If you can't acknowledge that, there is nothing I can say to you. 

It's not one phd - he just organized the data and reached his own conclusions. I said read the underlying studies all done pre-pandemic. .
 

22ndandF wrote:

GWRising wrote:

Cutis, I assume you are referring to me. I did not say masks do not work. I said there is no definitive proof that they do. The study you cite is not evidence for that ... it is a predictive model based on estimates of deaths (which by the way has a range) which also includes social distancing and hand washing practices so it is hard to distill out the effects of the mask alone versus those other practices. Plus, I would caution you that this particular UW group has made very wrong predictions before about deaths before both high and low. I am not criticizing them just saying this is further evidence that there is a lot more that we don't know than we do know.

Again, I am not anti-mask and in fact wear them everywhere. But it is not as crazy as some in the media would lead you to believe to think otherwise currently and that was my point.

There are studies that suggests that masks do not reduce the spread of viruses like COVID-19.

Please read the science cited in the below article:

https://www.rcreader.com/commentary/masks-dont-work-covid-a-review-of-science-relevant-to-covide-19-social-policy

Now, it is true that most of the studies looked at face mask use in health care, not community, settings. And they were observational, not the gold standard of science, a randomized controlled trial of COVID, which would obviously be very unethical to conduct in the midst of a pandemic given the potential for death and serious illness. 

So the answer is we really don't really know for sure  - there is evidence pro and con - and that is all I was saying. I come down on the side that if we don't know err on the side of caution. Others may take a different view. I may disagree but I don't think they are bat shit crazy to question it.
 

GWRising, I am fascinated by your posts on this subject.  I have a very simple question for you.  If you have any parents that are still alive, or if you have a significant other or any children, would you let a surgeon perform an operation on any of them without a mask?
 

Apples to oranges comparison. A surgical room needs to be as sterile as possible for obvious reasons.But even with masks there are often post-procedure infections. No one not even those who adhere to strict social distancing and masks will have or require as sterile an environment.

Last edited by GWRising (6/26/2020 2:00 pm)

Gwmayhem do you only watch CNN? If so, I can see why you are so uneducated on the subject. The 2.2 million was not Trump's number or Fauci's. So you are flat wrong about what really happened. So wrong you should hide in shame on this topic.

The 2.2. million figure came from an Imperial College study from the UK. 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Of course, the study was later determined to have "software" errors and was later deemed to be incorrect.

https://analyticsindiamag.com/the-most-devastating-software-mistake-of-all-time-why-is-the-imperial-model-under-criticism/ 

As for Fauci, here is what he said ...on February 17th!!!! Not January as you claimed.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/02/17/nih-disease-official-anthony-fauci-risk-of-coronavirus-in-u-s-is-minuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/

Sadly this is what your side seems to do ... it just knows so much that isn't so.

 

porter71 wrote:

What amazes me is that there are people who act like we know nothing about how to stop the spread of the virus.  It's such an American thing, cause if you look at the rest of the developed work, particularly Europe, Japan and Korea, they seem to have figured it out.  If you compare US and EU stats on the virus, cases rose at roughly the same rate to start, then the EU dropped while the US leveled off, then rose again.  Individuals wearing masks in public and social distancing, in combination with access to testing and contact tracing of infected individuals.  That is how you stop the outbreak.  We did little of that, and what we did do, we did poorly.  At this point in time, if you don't see what the solution was to the outbreak, it's because you're actively are trying not to.  Its willful ignorance due to extreme partisanship, and its why we we're in the mess we're in.     

We are in the mess we are in for a number of reasons not just partisanship.

Here are just a few ...

We have lost trust in our government institutions over a long period of time not just since 2016.
We have experts contradicting each other and contradicting themselves often in the same week.
We were woefully unprepared for a pandemic of this magnitude both medically and economically for many years.
We have hyper-partisan media twisting narratives instead of reporting facts. The media is no longer trusted to be honest or informative.
We have divides in this country that are significant ... racial, religious, economic, rural versus cities
We have lost our way as a country. This didn't happen in 2016 it happened way before. 2016 was just a reaction to it.

Those systemic problems have all been revealed in this pandemic. We won't get well until we fix what ills us - all of it. 
 

Last edited by GWRising (6/26/2020 3:36 pm)