Hi BC, I believe you have to add the percentage of winning for each game remaining on the schedule and divide it by 100.  So in GW’s case that is 397 / 100 = 3.97, or four more wins.  Basically the theory is, even though they are not projected to win any individual game remaining, in reality that is not how it will play out.  There are enough close game opportunities (between 30-70%) where a couple of them will bounce GW’s way.

Still at #240 in KenPom.  Offense is middle of the pack at #202, but defense lagging at #288.  Interesting that Luck (win/loss versus expected is #355 out of 357 teams in Div I.

It's come to a 5% chance of winning at Richmond.
Put it on the bulletin board or text it to the players.
Hopefully, we can get our act together and beat this sad prediction.

Prior to coming to GW, Coach Christian never won a game against a top-100 KenPom school.  He was 0-30 combined at MSM and Siena.  Here at GW, he is 2-9, all last year, the two wins being the 4-OT game vs #70 Davidson and a win at #95 Duquesne.

BM is onto something interesting posting about the KenPom Luck metric.  My understanding is it not actually a measure of luck (losing out on 50/50 balls, failing to convert two chances to win on the last possession with the ball in your hands, etc).  It is actually a measurement of the performance of each team relative to his statistical projections (i.e. expectations).  And by that measure, we are the next to worst team in Division I in performance vs projected performance.  The only team worse than us (and by far) is 1-5 Kentucky, whose season is also an absolute dumpster fire.  Also interestingly, #1 in the nation in this measurement is 3-1 Navy, who I guess was supposed to be absolutely terrible but beat us and just recently beat Georgetown on the road.  So if you ever wanted to debate performance vs expectations, here is the statistical source to help drive that discussion.  We are officially suffering through (and supporting) one of the most disappointing programs in the country out of 357 teams!

Last edited by Motsach (12/23/2020 7:07 pm)

Worst A-10 Losses in OOC.

152 Drexel (SJU)
160 Saint Peter’s (La Salle)
171 Northeastern (UMass)
172 Charlotte (GW, Davidson)
184 Navy (GW)
185 UMBC (GW)
200 Bryant (UMass)
208 Army (La Salle)
231 Norfolk St (Mason)
259 Delaware (GW)
296 William & Mary (GW)
337 Hampton (GW)

Let’s hope they turn it around soon, otherwise we will be having the debate over whether they are the worst team in GW men’s bball history.  Right now I’ve got them at #3, behind the 1-27 team and MoJo’s last team two years ago.