Combined attendance at our four home games: 6,235.  Expected attendance at SC:  ~9,200.

Will tomorrow's game be accessible to us? anyone know if Verizon in Montgomery County will carry the game?

Pregame article says game is on SEC Network plus but it is also listed on ESPN plus.

South Carolina Gamecocks
Date: Friday December 1st, 2023
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Colonial Life Arena (quick, change the name!)
TV: SEC+/ESPN+
Analytic Ranks: 66th (KenPom), 79th (EvanMiya), 110th (Haslametrics). Haslametrics actually has GW ahead of SC (107th).
2022-23 Record: 11-21, 4-14 (12th in SEC)
2023-24 Projected Record: 19-12, 8-10 (9th in SEC)

Head-to-Head: 10-8, largely due to GW's dominance against the Gamecocks in the 40s and 50s (they won 8 of 10 meetings during that period). This will be the fourth meeting between the two teams since 2018.

In the last road contest back in 2019, GW fell 74-65 as the Buff and Blue were unable to overcome a 12 point halftime deficit. Not sure what the halftime plan was in that contest apart from chucking three after three until SC's lead was completely cut. GW shot a dismal 22% from deep despite taking 36 attempts from there. It was a running theme during that era of GW basketball when the team fell behind by a lot. There's no 10 point shot in CBB, and chipping away at a lead seemed like an impossibility for that squad and many others around that time. The numbers just weren't pretty - Maceo went 0-11 from the field and 0-9 from 3, and Jamison took 16(!) threes in that contest. That tied a team record with Greg Collucci back in 2001 against Yale. If there was a positive, it's that the team only turned the ball over four times all game. Armel led all scorers with 22, Jamison had 18 on six made threes, and JNJ had 13 off the bench.

After looking at some of those shooting numbers you might wonder how things could have been any worse but at the time the 2019 game was a SIGNIFICANT improvement over the 2018 MTE game. The bar was the floor, but yeah let's just say the 2018 squad dug themselves into a little 38 point hole going into halftime...

Offensive Efficiency: 70th (KenPom), 79th (EvanMiya), 83rd (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 74th (KenPom), 83rd (EvanMiya), 160th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 306th (KenPom), 311th (EvanMiya), 335th (Haslametrics)
Roster Rank: 78th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 134th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 137th
Rim & 3 Rate: 84% (129th)

Strengths:
Opponent Free Throw Percentage - 67.4% (21st)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 11.8 ORPG (T-44th)
3-PT Field Goal Attempts Per Game - 23.6 3PA (93rd)
Opponent Free Throws Made Per Game - 11.5 FTM (T-99th)
Personal Fouls Per Game - 16 PF/G (T-101st)

Weaknesses:
Opponent Points Per Game - 72.6 PPG (T-256th)
Blocks Per Game - 2.6 BPG (T-261st)
Opponent Blocks Per Game - 3.5 BPG (T-279th)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 32.3% (282nd)
Opponent Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 10.7 ORPG (T-292nd)
Opponent Field Goals Made Per Game - 27 FGM (T-313th)
Opponent Steals Per Game - 7.3 SPG (T-319th)
Opponent Assists Per Game - 14.7 APG (325th)
Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 15.5 FTA (326th)
Opponent Field Goal Percentage - 46.5% (327th)
Assists Per Game - 11.1 APG (328th)
Field Goals Made Per Game - 23.3 FGM (332nd)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game - 10.5 TO/G (334th)
Steals Per Game - 4.9 SPG (334th)
Free Throw Percentage - 66.1% (335th)
Points Per Game - 64.3 PPG (339th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 22.3 DRPG (340th)
Free Throws Made Per Game - 10.2 FTM (341st)
Opponent Personal Fouls Per Game - 14.9 PF/G (T-341st)
Field Goal Percentage - 40.3% (347th)

Key Returning Players:
Demetrius 'Meechie' Johnson (Junior; Cleveland, OH) - 12.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.6 apg; 36% FG, 33% 3-PT, 76% FT per 33.3 mpg
     Last Season @ GW: 6 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal; 2-8 FG, 2-6 3-PT in 22 minutes.

Jacobi Wright (Junior; Fort Mill, SC) - 7.3 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.8 apg; 40% FG, 35% 3-PT, 74% FT per 29.3 mpg
    Last Season @ GW: 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal; 0-5 FG, 0-2 3-PT in 25 minutes.

Key Losses:
Gregory 'GG' Jackson (Went Pro; Columbia, SC) - 15.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg; 38% FG, 32% 3-PT, 68% FT per 32 mpg
Hayden Brown (Graduated; Greer, SC) - 11.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1 spg; 44% FG, 22% 3-PT, 66% FT per 30.2 mpg
Chico Carter Jr. (Transferred to DePaul; Columbia, SC) - 9.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.6 apg; 47% FG, 48% 3-PT, 63% FT per 30.7 mpg

Key Transfers:
BJ Mack (Graduate Student transfer from Wofford/South Florida; Charlotte, NC) - 16.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.4 apg; 49% FG, 34% 3-PT, 81% FT per 31.2 mpg
Stephen Clark (Graduate Student transfer from The Citadel; Charlotte, NC) - 16.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.8 bpg; 49% FG, 22% 3-PT, 67% FT per 34.6 mpg
Ta'Lon Cooper (Graduate Student transfer from Minnesota/Morehead State; Roebuck, SC) - 9.8 ppg, 4 rpg, 6.3 apg, 1.1 spg; 40% FG, 38% 3-PT, 61% FT per 36.6 mpg
Myles Stute (Junior transfer from Vanderbilt; Washington, DC) - 8.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg; 35% FG, 36% 3-PT, 67% FT per 25.7 mpg

Preview:
"Comparison is the thief of joy".  I think it was Teddy Roosevelt who first said that. The phrase largely refers to comparing one's self to another person, but the same is virtually true when comparing someone else to another person. That comparison becomes that much worse when: 1) the person being compared is still young, and 2) when the person's support system (aka immediate family) only adds pressure to the comparison.

This happens time and time again in a number of entertainment-based professions, including the basketball world starting from the HS ranks. The so-called "recruiting experts" aren't innocent when it comes to putting pressure on top HS prospects. Sadly, we live in a world where it's a race to who can break the news first when it comes to the next LeBron James or Kevin Durant.

One recent example that really sticks out is Emoni Bates. SI came out with this piece back in 2019 when Bates was still 15 at the time. Never mind the very first sentence of the headline (Magic, Michael, LeBron...) being utterly ridiculous for a prospect who still had two years to go in school, but calling him "next in line" is extremely premature given each prospect class has a lot of late bloomers. Succeeding in the HS ranks doesn't guarantee to translate to college, let alone the professional level. It's why I don't put a lot of stock when it comes to a player's "stars". As every GW fan knows, any player coming here gets a star subtracted if they were a top 150 guy and if the go to a blue blood they get a star added. It doesn't mean much, and player #51 and #151 may be closer in talent than what the numbers suggest. Plenty of four stars don't pan out. It all depends on whether they were evaluated on a good day or seen by more people.

Bates originally committed to Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans out of HS but eventually de-committed. To this day, it's not exactly known why he decided to never enroll at MSU, but there were rumors that he and fellow recruit Jaden Akins did not get along. It would have been hilarious to have seen him get coached under Izzo, who wouldn't have put up with him not giving a full effort on both sides of the floor. That would have been a big change from being the "star" on all his teams in HS, from Ypsi Prep (which get this, his father started) and Bates Fundamentals, the AAU team which again his dad manages.

Before appearing in a game with MSU, Bates reopened his commitment. His recruitment did not take a hit - several schools either offered or re-offered. People on here will remember GW was one of the schools who swung for the fences on his talent alone rather than see how he would fit on the team (the JC era was a different time).

Ultimately, Emoni ended up at Memphis but ended up being just a guy there. He was dealing with a back injury but I think he quickly realized that he wasn't the only star on the squad. Jalen Duren ended up starring for that team and four players averaged more points per game than Bates. Predictably enough, he ended up entering the transfer portal. His recruitment was significantly more quiet the second time around and he found that the only way he would get to "star" for his team again was to drop down a level. Bates accepted an offer from his hometown school, Eastern Michigan, after being given the promise of being the guy on the team.

Unfortunately, the story had another twist. Bates was arrested late that offseason and charged with carrying a concealed weapon. Some prospects tend to go far away from home for college to get away from bad influences, and this is an example as to why players do that. At that point, the general discourse went from "bonafide NBA stud" to "bust" within basically three years. The kid is still a teenager even now! Luckily, Bates was reinstated a month later and allowed to play at EMU (side note, why the school doesn't brand themselves as "emus" instead of "eagles" will always be stupid to me). He would go on to drop 30 in their season opener, but didn't exactly do anything to lift the program (apart from adding some media exposure). Bates did just enough for Cleveland to take a chance on him with a second round draft pick. He's currently on a two-way contract as of this year.

Apart from all the pressure that was placed on him (Bates even later said he wanted to "stop playing" after the attention from SI) part of the unevenness that Bates experienced in college came from him re-classing. I understand that guys want to get paid as quickly as possible and make pro money, but Bates is a shining example as to why it's not always the best decision to rush things. If you're going to reclass, at least redshirt the year to get up to speed with strength/conditioning. On the flip side, I think it also showed that any college basketball team that tries to form a team around a re-class player isn't set up for success. It's inevitable that the player will be trying to put up stats to play for the next level rather than sacrifice for the betterment of the team.

The beginning of GG Jackson's story sounds a lot like Emoni's. He re-classed up, originally committed to another school (Carolina - the North version) before enrolling closer to home at Carolina South. I don't know that the Gamecocks were exactly picked highly in the always-competitive SEC, but year 1 under Lemont Paris was always going to be a challenge regardless of who was on the roster. The cupboard wasn't exactly full when he arrived in Columbia.

To say that things didn't exactly get off to the best start for South Carolina would be putting it kindly. A 2-0 start that included a win over rival Clemson sounds like an ideal start, but SC won the two contests by a combined five points (the other team they played was South Carolina State, not exactly a juggernaut). A matchup against an always solid Colorado State team changed the trajectory. SC fell by 32 points, which began a three game skid that included losses to Davidson (9 points) and Furman (19 points). They also fell to us and UAB by double figures as well. Things only got worse during conference play, as a win at Kentucky was the only thing worth celebrating after a 1-10 start in the SEC.

Paris had better balanced squads at Chattanooga, and it was clear that making Jackson the centerpiece of the offense wasn't leading to results. Jackson showed flashes, but also had understandable struggles as well (funnily enough, I think he ended up being drafted around the same pick Emoni did in the second round). When your best strength (from the above) is defensive FT percentage, a luck-based metric, things aren't going well. SC did well on the offensive glass, but that was a product of the number of bricks they launched from the field. The opposition had little trouble turning them over, generating good looks offense, making shots, and getting second chances if somehow the initial shot didn't fall. South Carolina finished 221st on KenPom, their lowest ever ranking on the site. Jackson being out of the fold may be "addition by subtraction". This year's Gamecock squad should be able to move the ball better and have better spacing/shooting.

Paris notably added a lot of experience to the roster from the portal this offseason (albeit not guys who have won a lot). Three graduate students enter the fold - BJ Mack from Wofford (via South Florida), Stephen Clark (their second transfer from The Citadel in as many years after Hayden Brown last year), and Ta'Lon Cooper from Minnesota (via Morehead State).

Mack was a first-team all-SoCon selection last season for a Wofford team that dealt with quite a bit of adversity last year - their head coach resigned mid-year due to abuse allegations. Despite that, Mack thrived, leading the team in scoring and rebounding. He is deceptively mobile for his size and has a nice looking three point stroke as well.

Clark, who went up against Mack in the SoCon and was a second-team selection, led the Bulldogs in scoring, rebounding, assists, and blocks. He is like the taller version of Brown from last year - neither is a particularly good three point shooter, but SC can play through Clark in the post given his passing abilities without the floor being overly cramped due to Mack's ability to shoot from distance. Defensively, Clark was 36th nationally in blocks per game but it will be interesting to see whether that part of his game translates to a lot higher of a level.

Cooper played on a bad Golden Gopher squad with Jamison last season that wasn't that much better than SC. He is a good shooter (38% from 3 last year) and on-ball defender but was largely brought in to help run the point. Cooper posted an impressive 2.3 assist to turnover ratio and ranked 7th in the nation in assists per game (6.3 apg).

Junior Myles Stute, a transfer from Vanderbilt, will join two other returning juniors from last year in Demetrius "Meechie" Johnson and Jacobi Wright.

Stute, a DC native that held an offer from GW, is a stretch guard-forward that gets after it on the glass and loves to launch from distance. He led Vanderbilt in three point makes (74) and took an astounding 76% of his attempts from there. His stats reveal that he is not nearly as efficient inside the arc but that might have partly been a product of the team he was on.

Johnson is the leading returning scorer who will likely tag-team with Cooper for facilitation duties. His efficiency was definitely compromised by having to take a ton of shots last year (36% from the field, 33% from 3) but the other additions to the roster should help free him up to be more productive. Meechie is currently SC's leading scorer on the year at 16.8 ppg.

Wright shot 35% from 3 last year but was yet another guy on the SC roster who shot under 40% from the field overall. He is a capable passer, but the presence of both Cooper and Johnson should free him up to be more of a shooter/scorer. Wright showed flashes of that at times last year, with four made threes against Georgia and five against LSU.

Former LSU big man Josh Gray, Illinois forward Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk, and sophomore Zachary Davis will likely retain rotation roles this year. Gray put up a modest four points and three rebounds in last year's contest, but actually finished the year leading the Gamecocks in rebounding. Like many of his teammates, Bosmans-Verdonk is a willing rebounder down low but had many shortcomings with regards to offense last year. He went 1/6 from the field against GW last year. Davis also added four points in last year's clash but struggled to consistently make shots over the course of the season. He should be able to earn more minutes this year entering his sophomore campaign. Finland native and true freshman Morris Ugusuk will likely earn some minutes off the bench for SC. He's just 4/16 shooting on the year but has good positional size for his position at 6'4".

In the case of a blowout in either direction, walk-on sophomore Eli Sparkman and former Coastal Carolina Chanticleer Ebrima Dibba will see minutes here and there. Dibba averaged roughly 8 ppg over his four year career at CCU.

The first true road game for a largely young team will definitely be a challenge. I somehow have a feeling GW can keep the game close as long as they don't cough the ball up a ton on offense due to silly mistakes. SC doesn't play overly fast, so that may actually work to our advantage. The keys will be 1) rebounding, and 2) not getting off to such a slow start. I think SC will likely win the rebounding battle due to the number of guys/size they have but hopefully we can limit second chance opportunities wherever possible. For #2, I'm hopeful CC calls timeout if SC comes out firing out of the gate before the game is already out of hand. The fact SC is undefeated will likely mean the turnout will be better than it otherwise would have and dealing with the crowd on a Friday night will be tough.

Projected Score: South Carolina 80, GW 70. 19% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 17% chance to win a tough one on the road. Hoping for the best!
 

Our current KenPom is 139.  Will it be better or worse after the South Carolina game?  I am guessing better.  Early line is GW +9.5,   

Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (11/30/2023 11:54 pm)

Alum1 wrote:

The Emperor has set the line at -9/+345.

I’m the ultimate homer, but I think the money line is a sucker’s bet., and I hope I can resist the urge. 😂😂. Feels like this one could go off the rails if the Gamecocks are popping threes. If we don’t find a way to defend  the perimeter  with any consistency, we will lose by 20+.  It might be a better strategy to slow this game down and up the ball movement on offense and hope the defense can rise to the occasion. Run and gun today will be a recipe for disaster.

Upping the ball movement isn’t really compatible with slowing the game down.  I’m sure we we will play our game, putting pressure on the defense.  And a lot depends on how they play us - if they are taking away the passing lanes, as some teams do, that reduces ball movement, but makes it easier to drive to the hoop. If they play it that way, James will put up 30.

Free Quebec wrote:

Alum1 wrote:

The Emperor has set the line at -9/+345.

I’m the ultimate homer, but I think the money line is a sucker’s bet., and I hope I can resist the urge. 😂😂. Feels like this one could go off the rails if the Gamecocks are popping threes. If we don’t find a way to defend  the perimeter  with any consistency, we will lose by 20+.  It might be a better strategy to slow this game down and up the ball movement on offense and hope the defense can rise to the occasion. Run and gun today will be a recipe for disaster.

Upping the ball movement isn’t really compatible with slowing the game down.  I’m sure we we will play our game, putting pressure on the defense.  And a lot depends on how they play us - if they are taking away the passing lanes, as some teams do, that reduces ball movement, but makes it easier to drive to the hoop. If they play it that way, James will put up 30.

 
Upping ball movement  (i.e.  passing) strikes me as exactly compatible with slowing the game down. It means a half court offense where you create good looks or an open lane. And maybe even put yourself in a position for grabbing some rebounds and put backs. That strategy would seem to be more conducive to keeping it close in a game against a better team on the road than our propensity to  sprint down the court amd chuck up a three.

The Emperor just took the line down to +8//+310

Great preview, as always DMV.  Cant help but think there is some good karma for team in Colonial Life Arena

Starting Lineup going big