Prognostication has become virtually impossible in the age of the transfer carousel, because it's not only a race to get the best talent, but to get that talent to gel as fast as possible. 

There are nine underclassmen on this roster (counting RS-Soph Edwards) and limited options against a post-heavy opponent. I think that this team finishes somewhere between 5th and 12th. James and Max could carry this roster to the higher end, but if I were to bet money, it'd be more in the 7-11 range due simply to inexperience and unfamiliarity with the college game and each other. Next year is the year where I think your dreams come true, BGF, if (and only if) the collective is able to find the cash to keep as much of this roster as possible intact. 

Mostly agree with the above. The roster has the feeling of being a year away from being where we want the team to be. The team is just a bit too young and inexperienced to be overly bullish but the best thing CC did this offseason was balance out the roster. Assuming the NCAA upholds their second-time transfer rules, this is the first season in a long time where I finally see a potential core being developed.

There are definitely questions in the frontcourt (like at the 5 as mentioned in another thread) but assuming the team stays relatively healthy I'll go slightly more optimistic and say in the 5-10 range with somewhere between 7-9 being most likely (a slight step down from last year's squad). The A10 seems underwhelming again (I can't buy St. Joe's as a top 4 team under Lange despite their "continuity") so honestly I wouldn't be surprised if the team surprises again if a few guys can really emerge during OOC play.

As of now, the OOC schedule seems easier than last year (probably for the best). I know W-L record matters more than the "analytics", but more than anything I'm just hoping we finish KenPom top 200 this year if only to improve the perception of the team and position us to play a more competitive slate in 2024-25.
 

I am actually the wide eyed optimist during the off season GWAA.   For the first time since I can recall, I truly have no idea how good the team will be in the upcoming season.  We only have 3 known quantities coming back.Bishop, Max and Keegan, and  with Harvey, we saw so little of him last season, who knows?   We do know that BIshop was the leading scorer in the conference and that Max was all rookie  These are 2 major chips.   We have 3 true freshman coming in  but also have 3 redshirt freshman  (Buchanan, Schroder and Garrett Johnson), 2 of whom are coming from power conferences as well as a freshman (Weluche Ume) with international acclaim and playing experience.   Finally we have 2 post graduate players (Akingbola and *Smith) one of whom (Akingbola) being a big coming from Auburn who, despite his lack of playing time, was still ranked as a 3 star portal player by Rivals.  My point is that these are players who have all been around, were all considered good recruits and many with real playing experience.   These are all Caputo recruits or players who have played for him, so I am hoping that the learning curve may not be that great.  It wouldn't surprise me to be in the low to mid 100s at the end of the season.  On the other hand, it would likewise not surprise me if we need a year to develop,    Remember Bishop, while a scorer, was not very good his first year, nor was Adams, Dean or even Lindo for that matter.   So it would likewise not surprise me if we are in the low to mid 200s at the end of the season.  But being the off season optimist that I am, I will go with 10 conference wins and 17 overall.  (Sadly, that staple of GW nonconference basketball, namely the embarassing loss to a low ranked team, is still there(.

I think it's a good roster comp, BM. Hell if I know if it's a good league comp though. Xavier (miss u) and Dayton were both nationally ranked at the end of that year, and the conference sent three teams to the NCAAs and three to the NIT. 

GWRising wrote:

Maybe it's me but I don't know how anyone can have a good notion about a realistic floor and ceiling for this team at this point. We have 9 scholarship players (75% of our scholarship players) who have never worn a GW jersey before. Add to that, many teams in the conference have had major roster turnover. This team could be very good, be mediocre or stink. I just don't know how anyone knows anything at this point. 

This. 

No idea what to expect, but I’m genuinely looking forward to the season for the first time in a few years.

I think we’ll find ourselves smack dab in the middle of a very mediocre conference. I would say19 wins is the ceiling and12 is the floor.  Likely we are sitting at home again in March.  But hey - they will be fun to watch, amd if the dials click they could surprise.

Insane world. Good coaches. Will players have to pay coaches in the future? 

Tennessee Colonial wrote:

Insane world. Good coaches. Will players have to pay coaches in the future? 

Who knows, but since everything in sports is so transient, why not see who does it for the love of the game and actually make it fun as it was originally intended to be. And while at it, players can actually get an education

GWRising wrote:

Maybe it's me but I don't know how anyone can have a good notion about a realistic floor and ceiling for this team at this point. We have 9 scholarship players (75% of our scholarship players) who have never worn a GW jersey before. Add to that, many teams in the conference have had major roster turnover. This team could be very good, be mediocre or stink. I just don't know how anyone knows anything at this point. 

Sorry Rising but I will for the life of me never understand a response like this.  Nobody does know anything, nor will they in November and come March 1, nobody will also truly know how any team will finish.  It's sports and as it has been said, that's why they play the games.  BGF has not asked us what we know, he's asking us what we think.  And, he fully acknowledges that what we think right now is based on limited information.  So play along, or don't.  

Last year at this time, we were very concerned about an influx of new talent coupled with a new, proven head coach primed to turn around a recently moribund program.  Not to mention that a highly regarded New Zealander slated at one point to play for GW would now be displaying his talents in Amherst.  How'd that all work out last year for UMASS?  Or, did Archie Miller work his magic at URI?  Turns out these programs, much like our own, were in need of major rebuilds.  We don't KNOW if either or both will be back by next year or the next 10 years.  

This really does speak to how wide open the A10 is.  The historic dregs, Duquesne, Fordham and La Salle, have shown more than just a few signs of life.  VCU has been a near constant at the top but for the first time in 15 years, there will no longer be any remnants remaining from the Shaka Smart coaching tree.  Does VCU stay so dominant under Ryan Odom and a new coaching philosophy?  A coach like Mark Schmidt can never be discounted; he's liable to win with his own players or with your players.  Newer programs like Davidson and Loyola have relatively new coaches but ones who are leading proven programs.  Can Dayton and SLU continue to reload so successfully?

As for GW, what I really liked last year was a team was unwilling to concede the rebounding battle game after game despite its centers not being particularly skilled rebounders.  This was also largely the case under Jamion, at least where the defensive boards were concerned.  We will seemingly need this mindset to continue as this team as constituted on paper looks more like a finesse team than a powerful one (Babatunde being the exception).  CC and staff clearly felt a need for more shooters, bringing in a frontcourt that should be able to master the pick and pop.  The team defense was atrocious at times but I'll contend that when you're playing no more than 8 guys and really hope to play 6 or 7, staying out of foul trouble is key and the tradeoff here is porous defense.  

The unanswerable question at this time is how deep will we really be?  The OOC will afford opportunities to play 10-11 guys if the coaching staff wants to go that deep but when conference play and it's time to shorten the bench, how low will this GW team go?  No matter the answer, I am expecting to see far more tenacious defense this coming season with an emphasis on more proactively attempting to generate turnovers.  Something in between havoc and "whatever you do, don't foul."  Maybe that was supposed to be mayhem all along though aside from running guys off the three point line, it was never easy to further define mayhem.

Unlike all years dating back to ML, I see a tremendous ceiling in the OOC and yes, this is being said despite not knowing what the entire OOC schedule will be.  We know enough to conclude that we will be favored more often than not, and that Top 50 type opponents will be kept to a minimum.  The OOC will be an opportunity for 11 guys to essentially audition for a permanent role in the rotation.  Sure, we know JB and Max are safe, and so likely will be Darren, Babatunde and Jacoi.  But how much will we see of a Garrett Johnson?  Or a Christian Jones?  Or for that matter, a Keegan Harvey?

As a result, I am foreseeing a better than expected OOC record, let's say 9-4, with a ceiling of 11-2 and a floor of 6-7, without having looked at it or even knowing all of it.  Conference play is fuzzier in my mind.  Somewhere in between 11-7 and 7-11 seems correct.  That gets us to a very broad range of somewhere between .22-9 and 13-18 heading into the conference tournament.  So, 17-18 wins seems right though the optimist in me is saying that 20-21 wins sounds more plausible than 13-15.

LA Colonial wrote:

Mayhem, no comment on your analysis other than to say I expect Schroeder to be a big factor and maybe our third leading scorer.

I do not necessarily disagree LA Colonial.  I quite purposefully excluded him because my sense is that he has very capable abilities on offense but I am unsure whether his game will be a strong fit for this team.  Might be too needy a shooter/scorer to provide considerable minutes.  (Different story once JB has departed.)  And, with CC looking for a more concerted effort on defense, this may or may not be an issue with respect to minutes.  Or, if everything you've projected turns out to be true, I would not be at all surprised.