Gwmayhem, if these transfers had strong track records of college performance they wouldn't be at GW and they would've commanded way more NIL money than GW could afford to pay. CC is betting much like Max that they have higher ceilings than their college track records would suggest. But these analysts don't know what CC knows nor can they be expected to. 

That said, until the bright lights come on do we really know? GW and the college basketball world is littered with kids who someone thought were this or that and did not come close. I say let these kids develop and then see what we have. I put no more credence in someone who says we are first versus someone who says we are last. A ton of unknowns at this point. Undoubtedly some will be better than expected and some worse. That's just the way this works.

Of course these so-called experts can not be expected to know what CC knows, but they can be expected to know a few things:

1a) Benny had a strong enough game to earn a scholarship to Oklahoma.  Same for Stretch at Auburn.  Same for Darren at Virginia Tech.  Same for Garrett planning on playing at Princeton.

1b) Zamoku played for a professional team at age 16.  Jacoi started at IMG Academy.  Trey and Christian were both considered strong recruits.

While recruiting mistakes can and do happen out of high school, this appears to be a tremendous number of players to be wrong about if we are truly bringing in guys who are going to lead us to a 9 win season.

Second, Darren, Benny, and Garrett were all injured collegians.  This as much as anything explains why they played so little, if at all, at their last stops.    Each is healthy now.  Is an expert like Bart Torvik really expected not to know any of this? 

I know there are a lot of teams and players to know but it seems to me that if you're going to put your name on publicly shared predictions, you might as well make every attempt to get things right.  If even a small amount of research had been done, there's just no way that anyone in this business could think that we're looking at a 3-15 conference team/9 overall win team.
 

I, for one, take little stock in pre-season prognostications. If ever there was a case to pick a team to underachieve, that could be said of the Colorado Football team, a team brought in a new coach and had almost a 100% turnover in personnel. Too early to say how the Buffaloes finish up and it's certainly not the case that GW will be a top 50 team this year, but given what I've observed over the summer, I'll make this prediction (although my predictions rarely go anywhere):

After watching the team perform this year and seeing how they progress, most of us will be licking our chops in anticipation of the 2024-2025 season's start. Patience.

The Dude wrote:

We did end up both of the last 2 years around .500, better than expected in the A10, that's true.  

We also finished with a KenPom of 217 and 226 those seasons... and then lost every one but 2 guys to graduation or transfer.

The league was also down the last 2 years and seems to be improved this season. 

There's 2 guys one can be reasonably certain are good A10 players and then a full roster of new parts.  A lot of the guys do look exciting, but even if they hit the ground running they haven't played together.  Has GW ever had a team of mostly new players that didn't struggle initially?  

Given that, 9-13th Pre-Season seems about right.... until we prove otherwise.   
 

1) 9th-13th seems about right?  I would have thought this was a given, but 9th is a far cry from 13th.  If the consensus were picking GW to finish in 9th, I don't think we'd be having this discussion.

2) Has GW ever had a team of mostly new players that didn't struggle initially?  This is an unfair question because the sport has never seen so many widespread changes to rosters as it has over the past few years.  The Sweet 16 team had three enormously important freshmen in Yinka, Kwame and Vaughn which while only 3 players, represented a huge influx of talent on that team.  If you're defining "mostly new players" as replacing more than half of your roster, there's only a handful of seasons to consider which of course is too small a sample size.  (Seems to me that Duquesne replaced nearly their entire roster last year and had far greater success than the year prior.)

3) We lost everyone but two guys.  Technically four as Keegan and Laziz are both back.  Nevertheless, this fails to account for the fact that we essentially played just 8 guys last year and often 7.  Of this group, most would agree that Brendan and Ricky are the key losses, with Hunter being a loss to a lesser extent.  The rest of the rotation, Noel, Amir and Qwanzi are players who were never going to be key contributors for GW and who have undoubtedly been replaced by better players.

Gwmayhem wrote:

Of course these so-called experts can not be expected to know what CC knows, but they can be expected to know a few things:

1a) Benny had a strong enough game to earn a scholarship to Oklahoma.  Same for Stretch at Auburn.  Same for Darren at Virginia Tech.  Same for Garrett planning on playing at Princeton.

1b) Zamoku played for a professional team at age 16.  Jacoi started at IMG Academy.  Trey and Christian were both considered strong recruits.

While recruiting mistakes can and do happen out of high school, this appears to be a tremendous number of players to be wrong about if we are truly bringing in guys who are going to lead us to a 9 win season.

Second, Darren, Benny, and Garrett were all injured collegians.  This as much as anything explains why they played so little, if at all, at their last stops.    Each is healthy now.  Is an expert like Bart Torvik really expected not to know any of this? 

I know there are a lot of teams and players to know but it seems to me that if you're going to put your name on publicly shared predictions, you might as well make every attempt to get things right.  If even a small amount of research had been done, there's just no way that anyone in this business could think that we're looking at a 3-15 conference team/9 overall win team.
 

There are certainly plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this group but again it's like a portfolio of two blue chip stocks and a bunch of stocks that are forecasted to do well but have no earnings presently. Plenty of guys earn P5 scholarships and either don't play or aren't able to play. That's one of the reasons we have about a third of the returning scholarships in the transfer portal every year. There is nothing to research because there is no information. There are 360 D1 teams with probably a third to half of their rosters with new players. No way there is time to get that in-depth with each team. So unless you have top 100 recruits, a lot of bona fide returners or great program tradition, you are not going to get the benefit of the doubt. 

That's the reason I don't even really bother reading the previews anymore. I'm going to know more about GW than what I am going to read and I would venture a guess that most of you will too.

That all said, Like GW0509 said, the range of predicted outcomes is going to be wide with this team until we know what we have. I am betting on the upside based on what I know and have seen. But again a lot of factors come into play including health - probably primarily for James and Max. The Jets entered Monday night's game with one set of assumptions about their prospects which were dramatically changed 4 plays in.

Preseason predictions are more art than science and the beauty is always in the eye of the beholder. 

Last edited by GWRising (9/13/2023 11:31 am)

We’ll, the Dayton Daily News picked the Flyers to win the league.  But they also picked GW to finish 6th. 

https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/dayton-safe-pick-for-no-1-spot-in-hard-to-predict-atlantic-10/PNTHUXSJUNE2LJBT6JPURPQM5A/

Excellent preview there from the 3 man weave guy, thx for posting

Youth and inexperienced as CC says but there is some intriguing new talent and 2 good returning players, 1 of them great:

"ROAD TO SUCCESS
George Washington’s offense was among the best in the A-10 last season, and with Bishop back in the fold, it has the potential to be once again in 2023-24. Bishop, one of only two first team All-Conference honorees returning to the league this season, led the A-10 in scoring and was among the most prolific and efficient users of ball screens in the country. Per Synergy, Bishop ranked in the 95th percentile in ball screens used last year and the 88th percentile in points per possession off ball screens."

Am trying to decide whether a prediction of 13th place out of 15 teams, with the possibility of a top 4 finish, is the work of a writer trying to cover practically all options, or if the 2023-24 A10 truly promises to be this crazy.

Is it even possible to have a first team all-A10 guy if you finish 13th? I'm trying to think of a time when that's happened. Ryan Daly of St. Joe's comes to mind as a guy who led the A10 in scoring playing on a bad St. Joe's team but I think he only made the third team.

At least one thing was done right in that only five guys were picked for each team. The fact the conference puts six guys on a team will forever be stupid. Just add whoever was left off as an honorable mention or something.

Overall, the preview was a nice read but didn't sound like a team that finishes 13th. Having said that, a potential top 4 finish mention sounds even more ridiculous. I have to agree that there was a lack of commitment in terms of sticking with the 13th place prediction by the end of the preview.

I mentioned it after the 3MW podcast was posted, but Richmond at 7th is just ridiculous. They tied for 11th last year and Burton is no longer in the fold. King is a nice shooter (I'll disregard what he did last year as ETSU has been a mess since Forbes left) but his assist/turnover ratio is mediocre and he isn't that good of a defender either. Their other major transfer they got Hunt was a fine player in the NEC at Wagner. That's not to mention that both players will be learning a system that takes time to master. While the A10 is wide open this year, I'm just not seeing that high of a ceiling for them.
 

From: https://www.a10talk.com/2023-24-atlantic-10-team-preview-george-washington/
7. George Washington Revolutionaries

Last Season: For the first time since 2017, the “Revs” finished with a .500 record under first-year commander Chris Caputo. He opened up the offense and milked some career seasons out of a few guys that stayed from the Jamion Christian era: Brendan Adams ran away with the most improved award after his points jumped from 8.2 per game to a ridiculous 17.4, and hit new career highs in every single category. Maximus Edwards ran home with the A10 Rookie of the Year, the first GW player to win it since Sirvaliant Brown did in 1999-00. Hunter Dean posted a career season and now gets to play his graduate season at LSU.Sitting atop this new-found excitement is James Bishop. Caputo must’ve waved a magic wand and given him Isaiah Wong’s scoring abilities because Bishop led the conference in scoring again… but he did so with 21.6 points per contest compared to his 16.7 the season before. Bishop is the first GW player to make the all-conference first team since J.R. Pinnock in 2006, and sitting 12th all-time in career points at Foggy Bottom among other records. Without question, he’s the best guard they’ve had there since Patricio Garino — maybe the best player since Yuta Watanabe. The Revs were also competitive in their pursuits this season: they annihilated South Carolina 79-55, played some close games against Washington State, and Hofstra, and started 5-2 in conference play. They leveled out in conference play but ended the regular season winning four of their last five and earning a modest 7th seed in the conference tournament. Caputo’s chance of leading a deep postseason run was stopped short by a smoking-hot Erik Reynolds and the Saint Joseph’s Hawks. Reynolds outplayed his counterpart with a 34-point performance, but things are still promising in the nation’s capital for Caputo’s army. As GW enters the second season under Chris Caputo, he retooled his roster with guys who will likely stay for a little longer in this rebuild. The mission is clear for what was once a top program in the A-10: get back to that stature and win the conference title. Caputo is the guy who will pull them out of this funk following the Mike Lonergan debacle. Is this roster the same as any of those teams? Outside of Bishop and Edwards, the Revs are quite the mystery.

Returnees: James Bishop, Maximus Edwards, Keegan Harvey
Out: Brendan Adams, Ricky Lindo, Hunter Dean, Quanzi Samuels, Jabari West, Noel Brown, EJ Clark, Amir Harris, Daniel Nixon
In: Benny Schroder, Trey Autry, Jacoi Hutchinson, Garrett Johnson, Darren Buchanan, Antione Smith, Babatunde Akingbola, Zamoku Weluche-Ume

Potential Strengths: Tempo, tempo, tempo. It’s all about tempo and high-octane offense for the Revs. Caputo threw it back to the Karl Hobbs era when he implemented a fast-paced style that was 93rd in adjusted tempo (Kepom). This is best suited for Bishop’s voltaic style when he runs off high screens and shoots his pull-up jumpers. Caputo’s style allowed Bishop to not only raise his intensity as a three-level scorer but also put up points faster than last season. A majority of his shots were threes, 38.3% to be exact. 31.8% were shots twos and then 29.9% came at the rim (Hoop-math). Bishop’s off-ball skills also became apparent when he wasn’t doing the creation himself, utilizing his speed when he had to in cutting scenarios while others created.Edwards looked every bit of a program cornerstone last season, but there is one element that I found fascinating about him: his ability to adjust to whatever is happening within a game. There are games where he ended up with more rebounds than he did points. 15 rebounds to nine points against St. Bonaventure on Feb. 19, or what about 16 boards and 11 points in a win over Richmond? Standing at 6’5” certainly has something to do with his high rebounding numbers as a guard, but it’s welcomed on a team that had a hard time on the boards last season. He’ll be taking on a much larger role as an initiator now with no Brendan Adams. Benny Schroder transferred in from Oklahoma after seeing limited time due to injury, but he has a very high ceiling given his offensive skill set. He’ll be slotted in the role that Adams held down which gave GW a legit third scoring option, a secondary ball handler, and a strong rebounder on the wings.  Caputo needed to add defense and rebounding this year. He seemingly found some answers through the portal in that regard: Babatunde Akingbola has the physical tools to be an awesome defensive anchor for the Revs after spending four years at Auburn behind NBA-caliber centers. Garrett Johnson comes along after redshirting at Princeton — the Tigers built a defensive powerhouse which only helps the issues the Revs must address. Darren Buchanan is in a similar boat Edwards was in two years ago: redshirting at a high major program but in need of time. Both wings are athletic and have pretty high ceilings at this level. And just for insurance, Antione Smith joins as a graduate transfer from Evansville to add some more length and shooting. His career 38% from three will be graciously accepted in this high-flying offense.

Potential Weaknesses: Outside of Bishop, Edwards, and Smith, all of GW’s depth is completely unproven. Here are the total career games that each of the transfers have played at the collegiate level:Babatunde Akingbola: 50 career games (Auburn)Darren Buchanan: Redshirt (Virginia Tech)Garrett Johnson: Redshirt (Princeton)Benny Schroder: 6 career games (Oklahoma)These four are likely to make up the rest of the starting lineup/hold down important bench minutes. Two redshirt players with potential aren’t something to pass up if you are a coach looking to influx exciting talent into a rebuilding program. Caputo has to take chances on some of these guys to make all of this work. All four players listed above will play by default because GW doesn’t have other options.The center position is frightful from an outsider’s perspective. I will reiterate: this is one of the stronger seasons the A-10 will have at the center position. Akingbola has the profile of being, at worst, someone who can clear the boards and stand in front of the rim. But his lack of actual playing time — even though it was at Auburn behind NBA talent — questions the kind of game shape he is in to change the defensive culture. Keegan Harvey played eight total games but is no more than a tall shooter, and freshman Zamoku Weluche-Ume may not be ready to play heavy minutes at center right away if he has a lot of defensive potential.While we’re on the subject of freshmen, Caputo recruited three guards who are likely to see playing time early on: Jacoi Hutchinson holds the most potential in my estimation. He played his high school ball at IMG Academy, that alone speaks volumes. His mental toughness will be a trait that Caputo looks to develop for a team reliant mostly on finesse. Trey Autry (Adrian’s son) also comes into the fold as a capable shooter which is never a bad thing, and Jones is an annoying point guard due to his ability to ball-hawk opposing ball handlers. While each guy presents a different skill for Caputo to use given the scenario, these three may only be able to be role players for now and not have extra duties. Bishop and Edwards’ need for volume is paramount to win games right now, so Caputo may keep his freshmen on the back burner.

Outlook: Defense in general is a concern for these guys, but in time, that will fix itself with this new personnel developing chemistry. They led the conference in points per game (76.3) but also allowed the most (76.7), but getting down to the nitty-gritty of their issues is more insightful than simply writing “the defense wasn’t good” — everyone knows it, including Caputo. They should improve and still maintain a great offense. Bishop and Edwards are the best offensive backcourt in the conference — those two will take them far, but the season-changing element is in their unproven depth. They’ll find themselves smack in the middle of it all this year, and if the depth finds its groove, they could steal an extra win or two.