William & Mary Tribe

Date: Saturday November 11th, 2023
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Analytic Ranks: 292nd (KenPom), 297th (EvanMiya), 326th (Haslametrics)
2022-23 Record: 13-20, 7-11 (8th in CAA)
2023-24 Projected Record: 14-17, 7-11 (T-9th in CAA)

Head-to-Head: 39-26. GW has lost two of the past three head-to-heads after previously winning five in a row in the series. The two teams used to face each other annually as foes in the SoCon but have surprisingly only played six times since 1970 (and just twice since 2000).

Offensive Efficiency: 296th (KenPom), 278th (EvanMiya), 319th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 260th (KenPom), 295th (EvanMiya), 325th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 260th (KenPom), 328th (EvanMiya), 292nd (Haslametrics)
Roster Rank: 280th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 272nd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 299th
Rim & 3 Rate: 79% (153rd)

Strengths:
Opponent Free Throws Made - 10.8 FTM (46th)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 36.7% (50th)
Opponent Free Throws Attempted - 15.3 FTA (T-54th)
Opponent Free Throw Percentage - 70.2% (101st)
Personal Fouls Per Game - 16.2 PF/G (T-121st)

Weaknesses:
Opponent Field Goals Made Per Game - 26.2 FGM (254th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 34.9% (255th)
Field Goal Percentage - 43.2% (260th)
Assists Per Game - 12.2 APG (T-266th)
Rebounds Per Game - 33.2 RPG (272nd)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game - 11.3 TO/G (282nd)
Free Throws Made Per Game - 11.5 FTM (284th)
Opponent Personal Fouls Per Game - 15.8 PF/G (289th)
Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 55.4 FGA (293rd)
Field Goals Made Per Game - 24.0 FGM (294th)
Points Per Game - 67.2 PPG (T-295th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 23.2 DRPG (T-297th)
Free Throw Percentage - 68.2% (305th)
Opponent Field Goal Percentage - 46.4% (325th)
Blocks Per Game - 2 BPG (338th)
Opponent Blocks Per Game - 4.9 BPG (362nd)

Key Returning Players:
Gabe Dorsey (Junior; Westminster, MD) - 10.9 ppg, 3 rpg; 45% FG, 44% 3-PT, 77% FT per 28.6 mpg
Noah Collier (Junior; Mullica Hill, NJ) - 9 ppg, 8.2 rpg; 48% FG, 54% FT per 28 mpg

Key Losses:
Anders Nelson (Graduated; Edina, MN) - 11.2 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.3 apg; 47% FG, 47% 3-PT, 83% FT per 29.8 mpg
Ben Wight (Transferred to Toledo; Columbus, OH) - 10.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg; 51% FG, 62% FT per 26.2 mpg
Chris Mullins (Graduated; Grand Prairie, TX) - 6.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 spg; 36% FG, 22% 3-PT, 74% FT per 27.2 mpg
Miguel Ayesa (Transferred to USC Upstate; Madrid, Spain) - 6.1 ppg, 1 rpg; 40% FG, 40% 3-PT per 13.2 mpg

Key Transfers:
Sean Houpt (Graduate Student transfer from D2 Florida Tech; Danville, IL) - 21 ppg, 4 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.4 spg; 43% FG, 36% 3-PT, 86% FT per 36.9 mpg
Caleb Dorsey (Junior transfer from Penn State; Westminster, MD) - 2.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg; 38% FG, 33% 3-PT, 63% FT per 12 mpg
Trey Moss (Sophomore transfer from South Florida; Orlando, FL) - 1.8 ppg; 46% FG, 50% 3-PT, 50% FT per 7.9 mpg

Preview:
98.6%. That was GW's predicted chance of winning our last matchup against William & Mary 22 minutes into the contest after JB nailed a jumper to put him in double figures with 11 for the game. At that point, the Buff and Blue were getting anything they wanted offensively, having already put up north of 50 points.

It's almost hard to believe that the team would then go nearly nine minutes before a pair of Maceo Jack free throws ended a 15-0 Tribe run. It was just a very strange second half overall. When you see two teams combine for 73 points in a 20 minute period, you would assume that a lot of threes were made but somehow the two teams combined to make just two(!) triples in the second half, none of which came in the final 10 minutes before overtime. Of course defensively JC focused on running teams off the three point line, but it really summed up just how ineffective we were guarding the interior during that era, as W&M put up 54 points in the final 25 minutes of the game.

Of the 29 points that GW struggled to put up in the second half, nearly half (14) came from the free throw line. The team converted on just seven field goals. While our efficiency was still considerably better than Stonehill the other night, keep in mind that the Skyhawks averaged 7.5 made field goals across the two halves. It was a pitiful showing against a Tribe defense that was a bottom 100 unit defensively and has pretty much remained that way ever since.

What made the game memorable (for the wrong reasons) of course was the final play in overtime where JB lost track of time and hoisted an overly deep three with GW down by just 1. I haven't watched the play recently but if I remember correctly it appeared that we were trying to get JNJ open for an attempt near the hoop but the play never materialized. I am still convinced it's that one sequence that has led to many (notably A10 twitter) docking JB as a player to this day, his defense notwithstanding. His shot selection wasn't always perfect at the time, but this is a guy who had at least five assists in the first eight games of the year (again partly because of the PG usage in JC's offense, but the guy was not a slouch as a passer even then and was pretty unselfish).

That would not end up being the last heartbreaking moment of the season as we somehow managed to follow up that poorly executed final possession with another awful final possession just a week later against Charlotte without their head coach available followed by JNJ and Maceo leaving the team shortly after. Thankfully I don't have to rehash that game anytime soon (hopefully).

One final point about the game during overtime. You would think down the stretch you would try and put the ball in your best player's hands to try and make a play. Until I went back and looked at the play-by-play, I didn't even realize that JB had not attempted a shot in overtime before that halfcourt heave. What's equally as damning is that Jamison, who was pretty clearly the #2 option, did not even attempt a shot during the final five minutes. In fact, Jamison's name did not even appear in a single play during overtime (not sure how that's possible). He didn't foul out either, as he wasn't called for a single foul during the game. Just bizarre. The nine points scored in extra time came from either Maceo or Matt Moyer.

It's hard to believe that it's almost been three years since that game has happened. Since then, both Jamison and JNJ have been on two other teams. Battle even teamed up with Luke Loewe in Minnesota, the player who made the winning layup in overtime for W&M. JNJ also made the NCAA tourney with Delaware. Through all of that, JB has remained committed to GW and I would love nothing more than for him to have a great game on Saturday afternoon in a winning effort. In a way he's been given a chance to show that what happened was a small blip in what has otherwise been an extraordinary career at GW that has had many highlights.

I realize that most of the preview so far has been me just recapping the last matchup between the two teams, but quite honestly it feels more noteworthy to talk about than W&M as a team since that game happened. The Tribe finished 302nd that season on KenPom, and have only fared worse since as they've placed 338th and 320th respectively in the past two years. Dane Fischer's squad has averaged just north of 8 wins per season the last three years (that includes the shortened COVID year, but regardless the Tribe have just been bad).

During the 2021-22 season, W&M did not win a single D1 game OOC, and their four conference wins were all decided by single digits. Last season was a slight improvement as the Tribe notched wins against in-state foes Radford and Richmond during the OOC slate, but it was still overall a forgettable year in the grand scheme of things. It's hard to say that W&M has expectations in any season given they have yet to qualify for a single NCAA tournament in their team's history.

Could this be the year? I was actually thinking of starting the preview talking about the teams the CAA has decided to add during the craziness of conference realignment but maybe I'll save that for the Hofstra game. In short, it's been really confusing, but it has also given teams like W&M who know the league already a chance to move up in the standings and potentially become a consistent second tier team in the conference.

Fischer's squad this year is certainly not short on talent, as the Tribe boast four players on the roster who hail from power conference schools and a fifth that arrives from the AAC. If W&M did have a strength last season, it was shooting the three ball well on so-so volume (they were 50th nationally). That's the minimum requirement to survive in the CAA which has in the recent past been a conference that prioritizes skill and shooting. Via KenPom, the conference has ranked 5th or higher in effective field goal percentage in four of the past six years. That may not continue to be the case moving forward with all the new schools arriving, but it's clear that the top tier of the league is still strong on that front.

While W&M's best shooter by percentage Anders Nelson is now out of the fold, the team does still return a strong one. That would be Gabe Dorsey who arrived in Williamsburg from Vanderbilt last season. Dorsey nailed 44% of his three point attempts on the year and finished with 76 total, the 19th best mark in the country. Gabe adds a bit of rebounding but is otherwise a designated shooter who thrives in "catch-and-shoot" situations. He may have to take on even more of a responsibility on that front with Spaniard Miguel Ayesa out of the fold (third in threes made on team at a 40% clip).

With Dorsey turning in a strong first year in Williamsburg, Fischer decided to bring in the services of Gabe's older brother, Caleb Dorsey, from Penn State as well. While Caleb is not the shooter that Gabe is, he is a crucial connecting piece in the frontcourt that can rebound, score opportunistically, and most importantly allow the Tribe to move the ball inside-out (which also helps out Gabe).

He will be joined up front by former GW target Noah Collier, who averaged a near double-double (9 points, 8 rebounds) in his first year with William & Mary after two forgettable years at Pittsburgh. For someone who operates exclusively inside the arc, Collier isn't the most efficient interior scorer out there but his ability to create second opportunities (and limit the opposition's on the other end) is crucial for a unit that's middling with regards to rebounding. It's worth mentioning that Collier has not played in either of W&M's games so far, so it will be interesting to see if he makes his debut on Saturday.

After losing a couple of key cogs in the backcourt, Fischer also landed some reinforcements this offseason from the portal in Bradley/D2 Florida Tech transfer Sean Houpt and South Florida transfer Trey Moss.

Houpt thrived in the D2 ranks after previously playing sparingly in Peoria, developing into a true flamethrower from behind the arc. While it would be unfair to say his shooting is his only strength, it's certainly his calling card. Houpt has made a staggering 162 threes combined in the past two seasons and will keep teams from focusing solely on Dorsey along the perimeter.

Moss on the other hand is one of the best athletes on the team, a definite outlier on a team/league that is predicated on skill. He is at his best when getting downhill but for whatever reason seems to continue to hoist from distance when it's not his strength. Moss was a subpar offensive player at USF (under 40%) but that feels partly due to the fact that over half of his attempts have come from distance. W&M may be able to reach another level if Moss becomes more of a consistent penetrator, which will open up space for Dorsey/Houpt to let it fly from 3.

Outside of the starting five, W&M also brings back quite a few rotation pieces from a season ago. Matteus Case is another down transfer who played at Providence (and was previously at Penn). He is an above-average rebounder for his height but is otherwise mostly a glue-guy on the team. Texan Jake Milkereit is an option Fischer can turn to if he wants to add experience in the lineup. He's the only player still on the roster who faced us in the last matchup (finished with 2 points on made FTs in 13 minutes).

Whether W&M can take the next step may come down to the growth of their sophomore quartet, who should all be better with a year under their belt. Jack Karasinski had a strong freshman campaign as a shooter and figures to see a much larger role as a sophomore, especially while Collier is out. Hie 6-7 frame allows him to play multiple positions on the floor. Chase Lowe made his mark getting to the basket, as the 6-5 guard attempted just 2 threes last year. Charlie Williams is a big who may allow the Tribe to go five-out down the line. While he missed all six of his threes last season, he converted on 16 of his 18 FT attempts which indicates potential shooting upside long term. The final member of the four-man class, Miles Hicks, is a local product (Upper Marlboro) who figures to only see minutes if other guards are in foul trouble.

Finally, W&M brought in a two-man freshman class who could push for immediate playing time. Jayden Lemond is a three-star product who hails from Georgia but played HS ball at the well-known Blair Academy in NJ. He had an offer from GW late in his HS career but signs seemed to indicate his recruitment cooled off quite a bit after early offers from a ton of high-major schools. While he may not be ready to play right away, he could turn into an all-conference guy with his skillset in the CAA. Tai Hamilton may similarly need some time especially since he's a frontcourt guy but he has potential as a two-way force that controls the glass and finishes well inside.

After a strong first impression against Stonehill, it would be nice to see a good follow-up performance this weekend. Consistency during OOC play has been missing for a while now, but this is a game that we need to show we can win.

W&M does not foul a lot defensively (somewhat similar to the Skyhawks) but they do not have a player that should deter anyone from attacking the hoop. The Tribe averaged just 2 blocks as a team and teams shot a fairly high percentage from the field last season (46%). I'm not against launching from deep, but there may have been times even during the Stonehill game where we should have tried to go inside a bit more/shot fewer jumpers. GW should be able to win the turnover battle and dictating pace should lead to success. Hopefully, we can take advantage of the fact that the Tribe will have played just two days before and may be a bit more tired than they would have otherwise been.

Defensively, I think as long as we account for Gabe Dorsey/Sean Houpt along the perimeter we should be okay. CC doesn't run teams off the three point line like JC did, but it would be interesting to see the Tribe attempt to get past Akingbola down low. The most glaring statistic above is that opponents averaged nearly five blocks per game against W&M last year, the second worst mark in the country (only URI was worse). Babatunde could feast in this matchup defensively if he can stay out of foul trouble. Regardless, this figures to be a tougher test just based off the fact that W&M's shots are likely to fall on average more often than Stonehill's did the other night.

Projected Score: GW 79, William & Mary 70. 80% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 73.8% chance to open the season 2-0.
 

GW -10.5 

I'll take GW and give the points, I think we keep it rolling.  Look for JBIV to be more assertive, having taken more of get everyone else involved in game 1 floor general approach


 

W&M strong from 3 early on.

Their made 3 percentage is unbelievable-40%  too made wide open 3s

Last edited by PKGW (11/11/2023 1:43 pm)

I know I'm not stating anything new here but man is Patsos a rough listen

Man. Patsos should take a break from giving a soliloquy on every single pass, shot, play, hot dog in  stands, weather and everything else. Guy acts like he’s three deep at the bar just pontificating. Gets old fast (at least to me. 😂😂).

This is taking years off of my life

Nice win! After Stonehill shot well under their average I guess things had to even out today. Glad to just get the win despite not covering. This feels like a game we'd have no chance at winning a year ago with the way W&M was shooting the ball. I mean what a performance from them from behind the arc. They'll be a tough out in the CAA if they continue to shoot like that.

A bit disappointed with the defensive execution. There's nothing you can do when W&M is shooting like that (even Moss was making shots - you just have to tip your cap at that point) but the team allowed the Tribe to get into a rhythm which is hard to stop once they feel confident. Close outs were better in the second half but W&M was already feeling it by that point. They also did a good job going for twos late because I'll admit I was expected them to just launch from three even at the end with the way they were making shots. Lowe in particular quietly had 16 points, and I think the team didn't really follow the scouting report there. He's like the one guy who doesn't shoot threes and we allowed him to drive the ball to the basket on several occasions.

- JB is still that guy. Liked the offensive plan to go at W&M instead of settling for threes. If we settled for jumpers and turned it into a shooting contest this game would have been lost. The FT differential (and conversion) was the difference. JB's missed some layups early on that he usually makes but if I remember correctly he got off to a slowish start the past couple of years in the very early going so I'm sure things will be fine. He was a bit sloppy with the ball today at times, and that turnover late in the game trying to find Jacoi was not needed. At that point it's almost better to take the 10 second violation and drain more clock. Breaking the press late in games will have to be a focus moving forward. For whatever reason, guys keep trying to pass along the baseline instead of looking forward/up the court.

- Max continued to play with great confidence and energy in this one. His play late in the first half really got the team back in it. I feel like every time he shoots it the ball is going in which is a great sign. His rebounding efforts down low deserve special mention as well. The tough thing about playing a team that shoots so many threes is that the ball bounces at weird angles and we were unfortunately on the wrong end of some bounces but Max also pulled down some big defensive rebounds.

- Garrett proved that the Stonehill game was no fluke as he was a steady force on offense. It did feel like he didn't play a lot after halftime but his versatility is something that was completely missing from last year's team. Another solid effort.

- DBJ was really key to the team extending the lead in the second half with some great drives to the basket. Not to mention some big time FTs made towards the end. Glad CC kept him in for a good part of the second half because I think his presence was key in this matchup. He is mobile enough to guard a number of positions.

- Benny can be a real cheat code going backdoor on offensive plays for an easy two. Those points may end up being the difference in a number of games this season.

- I liked Trey's energy on defense and it was good to see his shots go in a bit more today. That basket in transition at the end of the first half to put GW up was key for momentum.

- Stretch as expected had some really great moments defensively early on but I am kind of surprised CC elected to play him late in the game. I would have preferred Darren-Benny down low even if that sacrifices a bit of height. W&M as expected played Williams at the 5 with all shooters on the floor and Stretch did not look comfortable/ready guarding along the perimeter as W&M had a number of open threes.

- Jacoi may have statistically had the worst shooting splits today, but my goodness his heart and defense was one of my favorite things to watch all game. I really can't remember the last time there has been a guard at GW that had that kind of toughness. He doesn't take a play off, which reminded me of Yuta. Also a great pass to Trey in the corner for 3. Hutchinson is showing veteran leadership in year 1 which is incredible.

Hofstra will be an even tougher test up next. They can't possibly shoot as well as W&M did today - right?
 

Saw the perils of playing with a young team today, as we really came out flat and then unraveled in the final couple of minutes.   Interesting that in the last minute, Autry (freshman), Jacobi (freshman) and Buchanan (sophmore with very few games under his belt) were in the game.   I would like to say it was a nice team win, but it was Bishop (with some help) who carried us to victory in the second half.  I was concerned about Stretch's defense.   He was pulled a couple of times because of his inability to defend his man, who was getting wide opened looks from the 3 and then on one occasion, late in the game, simply blew by him for a layup.  I think it was at that point that Coach pulled him for the last time and he did not get into the game.   We seem to be getting a taste of Buchanan, who plays a power game.   Hope he can do so against bigger and more skilled competition.  Again liked the defense of Autry and Hutchinson.   They both seem to have freshman jitters but will definitely improve as the season goes on.   Max really is a ferocious rebounder.  May have tried to force the issue on offense too much in the second half.   As for Johnson, he really looks like a hell of a player.   Part of me says I did not like the offense.   Too much one on one, with only 8 assists on 28 made shots.  On the other hand, we scored 95 points.  How can you complain about any game in which your team scores 95,  unless its the NBA.  About midway through the 1st half, we changed our offense and stopped looking for the three and decided to take the ball inside.  They had nobody who could guard Bishop, and he brought us back into the game and built our lead.  But my god...we gave up 89 to William and Mary, who shot well, but not insanely well.   Too many wide opened looks.  I suspect that the defense is giong to be the primary topic of conversation going into Hofstra.   

Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (11/11/2023 5:42 pm)

Nice crowd today considering how beautiful it was outside and W&M not necessarily being a marquee opponent (though a respectable one). We've had good student attendance the last few games and that has been nice to see as well.

Last edited by Alum '04 (11/11/2023 7:29 pm)