GW  +1.5 on FanDuel, o/u is 151.5.  

Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (11/26/2023 11:27 am)

KenPom 140 (Delaware) vs. 145 (GW). This seems like a really important game to me. This tournament has been very good for us in that we will have played three good, solid, A10-like teams away from home in a tournament format. If we can win today and go 2-1 in the tournament, that will be a real positive. But if we lose and go 1-2 in the tournament, that is a completely different narrative...

Delaware Blue Hens

Date: Sunday November 26th, 2023
Time: 4:30 PM ET
Venue: Baha Mar Convention Center (Nassau, Bahamas)
TV: FloHoops
Analytic Ranks: 140th (KenPom), 132nd (EvanMiya), 211th (Haslametrics)
2022-23 Record: 17-16, 8-10 (T-6th in CAA)
2023-24 Projected Record: 20-11, 12-6 (T-2nd in CAA)

Head-to-Head: 8-6. GW had won five in a row in the series before falling in a 68-65 game at Delaware during the 2020-21 season. Much like some of the other opponents we've recently played, GW has only faced Delaware just twice this century. It was interesting to find out that the Buff and Blue actually shot the ball better in the 2020 loss than the 2019 win. Both GW and Delaware were undefeated yesterday before losing. In 2019, GW was actually the team that handed the Blue Hens their first loss behind a 19 point, 6 assist performance from Armel, a dominant 12 point, 17 rebound performance from AT, and 11 points apiece from JNJ and Maceo. A slight edge in rebounding (38-30) and assists (14-8) may have made the difference as the two teams combined to go a dismal 8/34 from 3.

In 2020, the two teams went 19/46 from 3, but GW coughed up the ball 19 times in the game which may have made the difference in the game. JB has actually faced the Blue Hens before, as he put up 14 points and 5 assists (revenge game part 2 after W&M?). Jamison chipped in with 14 points of his own, and Chase notched 10 points before fouling out (side note, but I'm disappointed Chase hasn't really had too much run at Towson, because I thought he proved to have good talent for a big (albeit with certain shortcomings). GW had many chances to win the 2020 game, but late-game execution wasn't exactly a strength for the team under JC. JB turned the ball over in the penultimate possession, and in the final possession GW got multiple cracks to make the game winning three. Unfortunately, JB and Maceo missed threes, and Jamison's offensive rebound at the very end was with virtually no time left to kick the ball out for a third try. The loss sent GW to a 1-4 record, including an 0-3 record in away games. Looking at that, it's not surprising to see many teams prefer to play as many home games as they can if financials are not in play (of course, it's good to have a couple on the schedule to challenge the team, but 3 away games within the first five of the schedule seemed a bit extreme on GW's part). Granted, I've mentioned a few times on here that Jamion's scheduling ideology wasn't the best...

Offensive Efficiency: 118th (KenPom), 133rd (EvanMiya), 182nd (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 187th (KenPom), 136th (EvanMiya), 206th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 227th (KenPom), 271st (EvanMiya), 219th (Haslametrics)
Roster Rank: 116th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 174th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 222nd
Rim & 3 Rate: 82% (165th)

Strengths:
Blocks Per Game - 4.0 BPG (71st)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Attempts - 19.8 3PA (91st)
Opponent Personal Fouls Per Game - 17.7 PF/G (T-102nd)
Opponent Free Throws Attempted - 16.6 FTA (120th)

Weaknesses:
Field Goals Made Per Game - 24.7 FGM (T-245th)
Opponent Assists Per Game - 13.8 APG (260th)
Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 56.3 FGA (263rd)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 23.7 DRPG (T-265th)
3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 6.6 3PM (T-270th)
Opponent Field Goal Percentage - 45% (272nd)
Opponent Rebounds Per Game - 35.6 RPG (279th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 8.7 ORPG (282nd)
Assists Per Game - 11.8 APG (T-288th)
Opponent Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 25.6 DRPG (290th)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 32.1% (298th)
Rebounds Per Game - 32.4 RPG (303rd)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 36.4% (T-327th)

Key Returning Players:
Jyáre Davis (Senior; Newark, DE) - 15.3 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.5 apg; 47% FG, 26% 3-PT, 66% FT per 33.5 mpg
Christian Ray (Graduate Student; Gap, PA) - 9.5 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 2.1 apg; 56% FG, 11% 3-PT, 69% FT per 33.3 mpg
Cavan Reilly (Sophomore; Lovettsville, VA) - 5.4 ppg, 1.2 rpg; 43% FG, 45% 3-PT, 83% FT per 17.3 mpg

Key Losses:
Jameer Nelson Jr. (Transferred to TCU; Haverford, PA) - 20.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.4 spg; 45% FG, 31% 3-PT, 78% FT per 35.2 mpg
LJ Owens (Graduated; Annapolis, MD) - 9.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.3 apg; 40% FG, 31% 3-PT, 81% FT per 30.5 mpg
Ebby Asamoah (Transferred to ETSU; Rockville, MD) - 6.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg; 37% FG, 35% 3-PT, 79% FT per 24.1 mpg
Gianmarco Arletti (Went Pro; Bologna, Italy) - 5.2 ppg, 3 rpg, 1.3 apg; 36% FG, 28% 3-PT, 69% FT per 21.5 mpg

Key Transfers:
Gerald Drumgoole Jr. (Graduate transfer from Pittsburgh/Albany; Rochester, NY) - 15.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.2 spg; 37% FG, 34% 3-PT, 80% FT per 33.4 mpg
Tyler Houser (Sophomore transfer from VMI; Camp Hill, PA) - 10.8 ppg, 5 rpg; 44% FG, 36% 3-PT, 73% FT per 26.2 mpg
Zion Bethea (Sophomore transfer from Hofstra/St. Francis Brooklyn; South Orange, NJ) - 10.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.3 spg; 44% FG, 42% 3-PT, 75% FT per 22.6 mpg
Jalun Trent (Graduate transfer from North Dakota; Baltimore, MD) - 6.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.4 apg; 45% FG, 23% 3-PT, 54% FT per 22.5 mpg
Niels Lane (Junior transfer from Florida; Freehold, NJ) - 2.4 ppg, 1.2 rpg; 44% FG, 42% FT per 8.6 mpg
Kobe Jerome (Sophomore transfer from UC Riverside; Harlem, NY) - 1 rpg per 3 mpg (3 GP)

Preview:
Given Delaware is the third CAA opponent GW has faced this season, I've already mentioned CAA expansion several times already this season and how baffling some of the recent additions to the league are but I haven't talked as much about the teams that are at risk of leaving. In some ways, that has made the expansion even more confusing, because I'm not seeing many teams at risk of leaving for a better situation.

Charleston has been mentioned a couple of times during the offseason as potentially joining the A10, which may truly come to fruition if one of the top dogs in the league actually get an invite to the Big East. However, the Cougars have somewhat underwhelmed thus far on the year. They have played a slightly harder schedule than GW, but actually rank worse than them on KenPom. The facilities and fan support have a lot of promise, but the A10 may be making a mistake going all in on a team that had a decent season.

Belmont is another one that comes to mind (the addition of the Nashville market) even though they just joined the Missouri Valley, but fan support isn't as great and it appears this year is the first in a while where the Bruins are actually undergoing some struggles.

Iona doesn't make sense with Fordham already around, and while Vermont has had consistent success through the years, they don't exactly add a major media market. I think eventually the league gets to 16 teams, but it will be interesting to see which team gets promoted. There's probably more upside/choices to pick from looking to the midwest or south. The geographic footprint for the conference would be expanded, but that's the case for pretty much every conference at this point (also why conference realignment is killing rivalries and doesn't make a ton of sense).

Outside of Charleston, the other CAA team that's been discussed as potentially changing conferences this offseason is Delaware, more for football-related seasons rather than basketball. The Blue Hens have been linked to both the CUSA and Sun Belt as potential destinations if they move up to FBS for football (sounds somewhat similar to James Madison from a couple seasons ago). I'd imagine the support is there and it would give either conference an opportunity to tap into recruiting/marketing in a different metro area, but I don't know that Delaware (or UMass for that matter since they've been mentioned as well) really moves the needle for the conference. It benefits the individual schools more than the conference imo. Granted, I'll be the first to admit that I don't really know/care much about conference realignment in football, and I can't name a notable player that's associated with Delaware football outside of Joe Flacco.

I've just always seen Delaware's athletic program as one that has a high floor, but not really one with a high ceiling. That's not just for football, but basketball as well. Martin Ingelsby against all odds made the NCAA tournament a couple years back, but he's not finished higher than fourth in the CAA in his seven seasons there. It's worth noting that this is a program that's only hit 20 wins three times since 2001, so Ingelsby has done a decent job all things considered. In fact, you could make the case that he's done the best job there since GW alum Mike Brey in the late 90s (not taking anything away from the Monte Ross era, which certainly had some success - hopefully he's able to get it going at another CAA school - North Carolina A&T). It's well-known that Ingelsby and Brey know each other well, as the former played under the latter at Notre Dame, and also served as an assistant coach there for several seasons.

I may be discounting the support within the Delaware athletic department, because Ingelsby has done a hell of a job in the transfer portal the past few years. Recruiting across the board has been elevated in Newark. When we last played UD, they did have Dylan Painter who had come over from Villanova, but the program was largely built with guys staying with the program (Ryan Allen and Kevin Anderson come to mind) and most of the prospects coming through were more lightly recruited. The kinds of guys they are landing now had offers from A10 level schools. From the transfer portal, they are getting productive guys from lower levels, and also landing highly talented guys from the high-major level (much like Hofstra and William & Mary who we've faced). JNJ was one such example in recent years. Delaware may be considered to be more on the outskirts of the Philadelphia metro area, but it's overall location on the east coast allows them to land a lot of talented players.

Look no further than a trio of guys in Jyáre Davis (from Providence), Gerald Drumgoole Jr. (Pittsburgh/Albany), and Niels Lane (Florida). Davis is probably somewhat of a different case as he's from the same town as the school and attended a HS just 10 miles from campus. Things didn't pan out at Providence, as he suffered a concussion late in his HS career which sidelined him for the majority of the COVID season when he was with the Friars. It appears Ingelsby took the CC approach giving a talented guy a second chance closer to home. While Davis is not much of a floor stretcher, he's very adept at slashing through traffic, has a nose for the ball, and is an unselfish passer. Expect him to be towards the top of the scouting report especially with JNJ out in Fort Worth now.

Drumgoole was a guy that GW was interested in for a while before he ended up at Pittsburgh. Prior to last season, it had been pretty tough sledding for him in his college career (either due to lack of opportunity at Pitt or injury in his first year with the Danes) so it was good to see him break out (and eventually get out of Albany - the whole Killings situation is rough with the assault charges last year and I'm not sure Albany is going to win under his tenure). Drumgoole is a skilled offensive player who has shot 38% from deep on quite a few attempts. I'm sure a guy like Trey will be eager to go up against him as an upstate NY product.

Lane was a three-star product from NJ out of HS, but never quite panned out in Gainesville. He has promise as a passer and scorer, but hasn't really done much of note since his sophomore year (much like Akingbola at Auburn). This season figures to be his best opportunity to get the chance to show his skills. With JNJ out of the fold, minutes are available at the point.

Also returning in the backcourt from last season are Christian Ray and Cavan Reilly. Ray should be a name that rings a bell, as he previously spent three seasons at La Salle. I've always found him to be an interesting player. He's listed as a guard, but can kind of play a few different positions with his 6'6" frame. Don't expect him to take a bunch of threes as he prefers to go inside, back his man down, and finish near the hoop. If there's no room to finish, he's able to kick it out for a quality shot and rebounds at an insane rate for a guard (he's averaged basically 9 boards a game at UDel).

Ingelsby (like many coaches) has had great success recruiting the DC area and Reilly is the latest example from Loudoun County. He doesn't do much apart from shooting, but was very good in that department last season, making a team-best 45% of his shots from distance. Thus far on the year, he's averaged nearly six attempts from 3 so GW needs to know where he is on the court at all times. As a young team, the Revs have been susceptible to going under screens and Reilly is a guy who will really punish GW if they do that during the game.

Reserves Houston Emory and Wes Peterson Jr. also return. Emory is a former walk-on who was later given a scholarship. Peterson is another DC-area guy who GW was interested in very early in his recruitment but cooled off afterwards.

Finally, transfers Jalun Trent (North Dakota), Tyler Houser (VMI), and Kobe Jerome (UC Riverside) enter the program from other mid-major programs. Like I said with Salih yesterday, Trent is another guy from nearby (Baltimore) who somehow ended up in North Dakota (via Cochise College in Arizona - so he's well traveled). As a senior, he will provide a bit of everything for this Blue Hen squad. Don't expect him to take a lot of threes, but he's great at getting to the rim and drawing contact (though is a subpar FT shooter). He'll also help out on the boards, distribute the ball, and has been Delaware's standout on the defensive end (leads in both steals and blocks despite being just 6'4"). Having said all of that, Trent is prone to coughing the ball up at a decent rate so hopefully we have success generating pressure along the perimeter. Zion Bethea (St. Francis Brooklyn) was also added to the roster but hasn't played on the year. It's nice of Ingelsby to provide him a new home after his previous school folded their program. Bethea adds additional offensive firepower to the backcourt.

Houser will be the second VMI transfer we'll have faced on the year, after Felder at Stonehill. If there's one thing that VMI has done somewhat well in recent years, it's shooting the ball, something that's almost a must in the SoCon. He's off to a blazing start this year, as he's a ridiculous 10/15 from 3 on the year. Like Reilly, we'll need to know where he is on the court at all times, but you have to think he'll cool off at some point. He will also use his 6'9" frame to rebound the ball, but is otherwise a bit quiet when on the floor.

(Kobe) Jerome is the younger brother of former UVA star Ty Jerome, who went on to win the championship with the Hoos. A NY kid, Jerome spent the past couple of years out west in Riverside but did not play much on some decent mid-major squads (side note, Magpayo is underrated in the mid-major world). He's easily received more run this season with Delaware and has fared well as a shooter and passer. Reilly and Houser have already been highlighted, but Jerome is 7/10 from 3 as well so far. He hasn't shot the ball a ton, but will knock down the three when given the chance and GW will have to at least be aware of that.

Hopefully GW is able to reset after yesterday's disappointment. I think in some ways there's less pressure now that they have lost a game as an undefeated season isn't going to happen (GW was one of the final 25-26 teams in the country to lose a game). Hopefully the team comes out moving the ball on offense instead of trying to go one-on-one. Turnovers were a lot better yesterday, but that awful floor is guaranteed to force a few travels that's out of the team's control. It comes down to how the team defends. The energy that GW plays with and the attention to detail switching will be worth monitoring, as Delaware is another offense-leaning squad like the other CAA teams we've faced on the year. Any kind of momentum going into the South Carolina game would be useful.

Projected Score: Delaware 78, GW 77. 49% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 32.5% chance at going 2-1 for the tournament.
 

For some reason (possibly delusion), I feel like we have something to prove--and should do so. We'll see if we come out flat or not. 
  There's a lot to like so far, despite yesterday's depressing loss. I think the double overtime took a lot of out of us and Ohio. Hopefully, we got rest last night and ate well today, etc.
   We have a lot of positive in newcomers Garrett, Darren, Stretch, really showing they can help win games. Jacoi and Trey are getting significant game experience and also demonstrate they can make a difference. Benny was actually a smart substitution last night because of his energy, which he has to combine with better shooting, decision making especially (like his shot selection overall and nice cuts yesterday) and while showing some flashes, consistent defense from game to game.
  Would like to see what Antoine Smith can or can't do, especially when we are cold shooting. Wonder if we could use him last night. No idea what's keeping Keegan Harvey glued to the bench, unless he can't play big to replace a stretch without Stretch, for even a couple of minutes. Same for Zamoku, if he can mix it up for at least a few minutes using his size, even if he is rough.
 Max and JB are leaders of this team and we know what they can do and are great when they are on, and Max overall with his rebounding and clutch shooting. JB with his generally savvy game, often when we really need it.
    We also need to move beyond yesterday's JB 1 on 1 or 1 on more than 1 that we saw yesterday because we blew two last second opportunities. Also maybe start to move a few second earlier. 
   Anyway, there's still a lot to like about this team and coach and we need to prove it today. We're playing Delaware, which is actually favored, but not exactly Duke. The impressive comeback yesterday fell short, but proved our mettle.
     I'm more worried about the crazy, slippery floor costing us (and other teams) than anything else in the tourney, including the inconsistent and overreactive refs. 
     But let's show we can use the talent we have to win this afternoon.   

DBJ into the starting lineup for Max. 

CC sending a message after Max got ejected?

Defense again hideous to start game.

Same guy in charge of replays running the shot clock.

Zero interior defense

How about a zone since we can’t guard them man to man?