Duquesne Dukes

Date: Saturday March 9th, 2024
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Venue: UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse
TV: ESPN+
Analytic Ranks: 98th (KenPom), 100th (EvanMiya), 101st (Haslametrics)
NET Ranking: 90th
2022-23 Record: 20-13, 10-8 (T-6th in A10)
2023-24 Projected Record: 20-11, 10-8 (T-6th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 55-35. Despite last year's result, GW has won four of the past six meetings against the Dukes after previously dropping five in a row. The have also won the past two road contests against Duquesne.

GW got pummeled in last year's game 93-67. There's no way to sugarcoat it - the game was over by halftime when Duquesne held a 30 point lead, 50-20. After a 5-2 start to conference play last year, teams adjusted in how they played JB and BA and it took CC a few games to figure out how to counter. The Dukes loss was GW's third loss in a row, which was one of just two three game losing streaks all season (the other obviously being the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii).

Duquesne made nine threes in the first half, and things weren't much better in the second when they knocked down eight more. This is something that CC is going to have to find an answer to in the offseason - defending the perimeter and adding more length to close out on shots better. Under CC, the three point barrage has seemingly happened to GW more often than the average team (like what a nine-win William & Mary team did to us earlier in the year).

Despite a poor performance on both sides of the ball in the first half, GW did play better offensively in the second half and shot 36% from 3 for the game. They actually matched Duquesne in rebounding, and had a respectable 13 assists in the game. Unfortunately, the Dukes had 22 dimes of their own (something we've come to expect) and shot 53% from 3. On top of that, GW struggled to hold on to the ball, coughing it up 18 times. That's something to watch for going into tomorrow - the Dukes are fairly adept at generating pressure along the perimeter so GW will need to make sound decisions with the ball. Just two players finished in double figures - Max led the way with 15 points, but attempted 15 shots. Similarly, JB got to 10 points but did so on 12 field goal attempts. GW did get to the FT line nearly twice as much as the Dukes, and that will be another key going into tomorrow's game against a stout defensive team.

Offensive Efficiency: 167th (KenPom), 166th (EvanMiya), 169th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 43rd (KenPom), 47th (EvanMiya), 36th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 231st (KenPom), 203rd (EvanMiya), 237th (Haslametrics)
Home Rank: 280th (EvanMiya) (Despite the poor rank, Duquesne has won their last three home games by 10+ points)
Roster Rank: 100th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 132nd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 55th
Rim & 3 Rate: 84% (99th)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Opponent Field Goals Made Per Game - 23.4 FGM (44th)
Opponent Points Per Game - 66.8 PPG (T-49th)
Opponent FT Percentage - 69.4% (51st)
Opponent Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 55.6 FGA (60th)
Blocks Per Game - 4.3 BPG (T-61st)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game - 13.5 TO/G (63rd)
Steals Per Game - 7.6 SPG (T-73rd)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 6.5 3PM (T-86th)
Opponent Field Goal Percentage - 42.2% (86th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 32.1% (96th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 20.3 3PA (T-109th)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 24.4 DRPG (T-245th)
Field Goal Percentage - 43.6% (247th)
Personal Fouls Per Game - 17.6 PF/G (250th)
Points Per Game - 71.2 PPG (T-254th)
Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 56.9 FGA (275th)
Opponent Blocks Per Game - 3.7 BPG (T-275th)
Field Goals Made Per Game - 24.8 FGM (T-278th)

Key Returning Players:
Dae Dae Grant (Senior; Lorain, OH) - 15.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.2 spg; 39% FG, 40% 3-PT, 87% FT per 32.5 mpg
       Last Season @ GW: 18 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists; 5-10 FG, 3-5 3-PT, 5-5 FT in 30 minutes.

Jimmy Clark III (Senior; Covington, GA) - 12.2 ppg, 4 rpg, 2.5 apg, 2.3 spg; 44% FG, 34% 3-PT, 72% FT per 28.9 mpg
       Last Season @ GW: 9 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals; 4-8 FG, 1-2 3-PT in 16 minutes.

Tre Williams (Senior; Reynoldsburg, OH) - 6.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1 bpg; 49% FG, 29% 3-PT, 56% FT per 24.8 mpg
       Last Season @ GW: 12 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals, 2 blocks; 5-6 FG, 2-2 3-PT in 19 minutes.

Key Losses:
Joe Reece (Graduated; St. Louis, MO) - 9.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1 spg; 50% FG, 26% 3-PT, 69% FT per 18.4 mpg
RJ Gunn (Graduated; Columbia, SC) - 8.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg; 39% FG, 35% 3-PT, 69% FT per 21 mpg
Tevin Brewer (Graduated; Fort Smith, AR) - 7.5 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 3.2 apg; 41% FG, 44% 3-PT, 73% FT per 25.2 mpg
Kevin Easley Jr. (Transferred to Coastal Carolina; Indianapolis, IN) - 5.7 ppg, 3 rpg; 62% FG, 50% 3-PT (3 GP)
Quincy McGriff (Transferred; Los Angeles, CA) - 5.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.4 apg; 36% FG, 34% 3-PT, 73% FT per 16.3 mpg (McGriff committed to UTSA last offseason then flipped to CSUN but he eventually left Northridge due to off court stuff I believe)
Austin Rotroff (Graduated; Wauseon, OH) - 5 ppg, 4.8 rpg; 62% FG, 57% FT per 13.5 mpg

Key Transfers:
Andrei Savrasov (Senior transfer from Texas Tech/Georgia Southern; St. Petersburg, Russia) - 14.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.3 spg; 50% FG, 36% 3-PT, 69% FT per 30.4 mpg

Fousseyni Drame (Senior transfer from St. Peter's/La Salle; Bamako, Mali) - 8.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1 spg; 43% FG, 26% 3-PT, 61% FT per 26 mpg
       In 2 Games vs. GW last year: 12 ppg, 8 rpg, 0.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 1 bpg; 9-21 FG (43%), 4-9 3-PT (44%), 2-4 FT (50%) per 30 mpg

Dušan Mahorčič (Senior transfer from D2 Lewis/Illinois State/Utah/NC State; Belgrade, Serbia) - 8.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.2 apg; 64% FG, 58% FT per 20.7 mpg (10 GP)

Hassan Drame (Senior transfer from St. Peter's/La Salle; Bamako, Mali) - 6.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1 spg; 37% FG, 31% 3-PT, 67% FT per 21.9 mpg
       In 2 Games vs. GW last year: 8.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.5 bpg; 5-10 FG (50%), 2-7 3-PT (29%), 5-7 FT (71%) per 17.5 mpg

Preview:
In the midst of GW's 12 game losing streak, I was reminded of Duquesne's 2022-23 campaign. The Dukes won their conference opener against UMass and then proceeded to lose 17 straight games (including the A10 conference tournament opener). By the end of the year, some were wondering whether it was time to move on from Dambrot - it was already year #5 for him at the program after he left his alma mater Akron looking to improve his chances of making the NCAA tournament in a multi-bid league (for context, Akron finished in first his last two years in the MAC but fell short in the conference tournament both times and had to settle for the NIT). Granted, he still had two years left on his contract so based on buyout alone it seemed likely that Dambrot was going to get at least one more year.

Just when everyone had written Duquesne off, they proceeded to win 20 games overall and go 10-8 in the A10 (tied with us for 6th in the A10) last year. That's the thing in this current era of CBB - no longer are you destined for failure after just a single season. Rosters can be flipped in an offseason, and weaknesses can be addressed right away. Add in a reasonable NIL budget, and your outlook can improve considerably. It's why I'm (cautiously) optimistic about this offseason. CC is still trying to figure things out as a first-time head coach and I think during the losing streak he realized what needs to be added going into next year.

Fresh off a successful season, this felt like the year for Duquesne to truly break through. Dambrot added several seniors from the portal, and by all accounts this seemed like the year the Dukes were committed to becoming true contenders in the A10 this season. It also marks the final year on Dambrot's contract. Based on that and the way the roster looks I wouldn't be surprised to see Dambrot hang it up after the year although of course nothing has been confirmed yet. Apart from being known for coaching LeBron in HS, Dambrot has had a very successful head coaching career outside a couple rocky years at Central Michigan - 515 career wins, three NCAA appearances + tournament titles, 5 NIT berths, and three MAC coach of the year awards. He's also won 63% of his games at the collegiate level.

This year, Duquesne went 9-3 OOC which included nice wins over perennial strong mid-major squads UC Irvine, likely soon to be A10 member Charleston, and Bradley (although I think without their best player). There were additional missed opportunities against Nebraska, Santa Clara, and Princeton but for the most part the Dukes had a successful first couple of months. They notably started conference play 0-5, but the last two were by just a bucket against Richmond and St. Joe's. The Dukes have lost just three times since in 12 games.

As mentioned earlier, this year's Duquesne squad gets it done by locking down on defense. The Dukes currently rank 43rd in defensive efficiency, which would be their best finish on that side of the ball since 2011 back when the program was coached by Ron Everhart. That 2011 squad also finished 55th on KenPom, the team's best ever finish going back to 1997. Under Dambrot, Duquesne has generally done a good job of closing out on shots (although they are content with teams shooting from distance) and generating turnovers but in recent years gambling for steals has led to their opponents getting to the free throw line at a decent rate. What's a bit more surprising is that despite Duquesne having the reputation of generally being a "bigger" team (by that I mean generally having many forwards that they can play through) they have been pretty bad at finishing defensive possessions with a rebound. Per KenPom, the Dukes have allowed opponents to offensive rebound 30% of missed shots in six straight seasons which is roughly bottom 100 nationally.

Offensively, the Dukes generally move the ball well and like to take threes but generally don't hit them at a high clip (although of course against GW that's always subject to change given the looks other teams get). Expect Duquesne to crash the glass on missed shots. Under Dambrot, they have ranked in the top 150 in offensive rebound percentage every year. They are generally mediocre everywhere else. If there's a critique, it's that they can settle for jumpers a bit too much instead of driving the ball and drawing contact. Given GW doesn't foul much anyways, that figures to be a wash tomorrow.

The Dukes are led by their veteran backcourt duo Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III. Both players really get after it defensively, can knock down threes, move the ball, and even rebound well for their height.

Grant, a preseason all-A10 first-team selection, arrived in Pittsburgh last year after spending three years at Miami (OH). Currently, he leads the team in scoring at 17 ppg and is third in assists. Last year, he made 94 threes and averaged 2.8 made per contest which was 37th best nationally. He's a career 37% from distance and made 40% last year. I think injuries have hurt him a bit (he missed three games due to a concussion) as he's a career worst 33% this season but he is more than capable of knocking down the open shot. There's no doubt that he's been streaky from distance over the past ten games. He went 18/38 in three games against VCU, SLU, and URI. In the other seven games, he went a combined 5/30 (17%). When it comes to GW, you cross your fingers and hope for the latter. Grant has missed just six free throws in 138 attempts on the year so that's something to keep in mind should the game stay close. GW should have some success if they can run him off the line - he's just 39% from the field overall this season.

Clark, a preseason all-A10 second-team selection and preseason all-defensive team member, returned to the A10 last year after beginning his career at VCU. Based on that fact alone it shouldn't be too surprising that he can wreak havoc on the defensive end. He's averaged over 2 steals a game both this season and last (top 15 nationally in both seasons). Clark has also developed offensively as well - he has the edge on Grant inside the arc, he's made about 50 threes each year at a decent enough clip (34%), and is decent from the line. He had scored in double figures in seven straight games before struggling in his return to the Siegel Center and breaking the streak (Duquesne still won the game though by 10).

The final player in last year's backcourt returning is rising sophomore Kareem Rozier. The 5'9" guard from Detroit is tough-nosed and what he lacks in height he makes up with his effort and energy on both sides of the ball. If you leave him open, he can knock down the three (~40% through two years of CBB) and he can also lead an offense in the halfcourt. It's less surprising that he shoots worse from two than three as his height makes it tough to finish over much bigger guys so as mentioned above GW should find success by running him off the line whenever possible. Rozier has only scored in double figures twice in conference play, but he's generally good for a couple makes a game (he's scored exactly five points in three straight games, and had five in last year's matchup).

Duquesne surprisingly only has one other guard that plays significant minutes and that is freshman walk-on Jake DiMichele. He apparently turned down some scholarship offers elsewhere to walk-on and play close to home. DiMichele is quite the pick up as a walk-on for Dambrot - he has pretty good positional size and isn't afraid to let it fly. While he's only 26% from deep, he does appear to have a good arc on his shots from whatever I've watched of Duquesne this year. After not being much of a factor during OOC play, DiMichele has scored in double figures seven times in conference play. I'd imagine he gets a scholarship next year.

Up front, Duquesne returns a quartet of returners in Tre Williams, David Dixon, Halil Barre, and Matúš Hronsky.

Williams, an undersized center, is the veteran of the group who is in his fifth year of CBB. The Ohio native played his first two years at Indiana State (what a year they're having this year - they're really fun to watch) before spending his last three at Duquesne. Notably, his minutes have gone down each year with the Dukes but he can still convert around the rim and rebound at a decent rate. He will take threes but his efficiency beyond a few feet of the rim is fairly bad (career 52% from the FT line, 20% from 3). Of course I say this knowing he went 2-2 from three against GW because of course he did.

Dixon, a rising sophomore from Memphis, had some nice moments on both sides of the ball last year. The bouncy forward can block shots at the rim, rebound the ball at a very high rate, and is an effective finisher around the rim. He's not much of a three point shooter yet, but the potential is there. While he has scored under 10 points in five straight games, he definitely seems like the kind of guy who could give GW fits.

Barre hails from Benin but has a similar build to Dixon which allows him to similarly rebound well and finish inside. His numbers (2 ppg) and minutes (8 mpg) have remained roughly the same as last year, but he can be a nice spark plug for the team here and there. I wouldn't expect a scoring explosion but he gives Dambrot another body up front to plug and play.

Finally, Hronsky is a guy that GW was pursuing a few years back. Unlike the aforementioned trio, the Slovakian is more of a stretch forward although he's yet to find consistency from deep (29%). He plays roughly the same amount of minutes as Barre so he's not a real threat to put up a ton of points unless he gets hot. At the very least, GW should be aware that he'll let it fly from deep if given space.

I guess Dambrot was longing for a return to the Marcus Weathers and Michael Hughes era so he prioritized more frontcourt help in the transfer portal last offseason. This year, he landed the Drame Twins (Fousseyni Drame and Hassan Drame) from the other side of PA at La Salle, Andrei Savrasov from Georgia Southern, and Dušan Mahorčič from NC State. It's worth noting that the quartet of players are all international. The Drame Twins are from Mali, Savrasov is Russian, and Mahorčič is Serbian.

(Fousseyni) Drame leads the Dukes in rebounding and is also third in scoring. He's notably shooting a career best 47% from 3 which far exceeds his career average of 31% from his time at La Salle and St. Peter's. I guess part of this could be better spacing/talent around him. He doesn't take a ton of threes, but it's worth noting that he is a threat when he does. His scoring has been all over the place, but that's a product of Dambrot continuously rotating his forwards to keep them fresh down low.

(Hassan) Drame is a good rebounder like his brother but does not see as many minutes as his brother (just ~12 mpg). He's also roughly a 31% shooter from deep in his career and is more or less matching that this season. Hassan got more playing time when Williams was nursing a thumb injury but hasn't appeared in a game since early January. I'd imagine that changes tomorrow if he can go since it's Senior Day for the Dukes.

Savrasov is in his fifth year of CBB after beginning his career at Texas Tech and playing the last three at Georgia Southern. He rebounds well, shot a decent 36% from deep last year, and in general has the tools to be an effective three level scorer offensively but is just 53% from the FT line on the year. Like (Hassan) Drame, Savrasov hasn't played since mid-February but could see a few minutes tomorrow if healthy as a senior.

Mahorčič became eligible to play in late December after recovering from a kneecap injury from his previous season at NC State. He is primarily a paint bound forward (has only taken three threes this year) and has only finished in double figures just once against D1 competition this year since making his way back. Still, he figures to be a stiff test on the glass in the minutes he plays given GW's inconsistency when it comes to securing a rebound.

Much like the transfers mentioned above, Duquesne's lone frontcourt newcomer from the HS ranks, Jakub Nečas, is an international guy (from Czechia). He did put up 10 points against St. Joe's a few weeks back but in general has been fairly inefficient finishing offensively (just 32% from the field, 27% from 3). Regardless, he will also be a factor on the glass. In general, GW's ability to neutralize Duquesne on the glass will a long way in determining whether they can be competitive tomorrow.

I don't really think the result matters given how the season has gone but it would be nice to see a competitive game to carry at least a little momentum over to the tournament. Hoping the ball movement continues from the Bona game and that GW can guard the perimeter as well as possible.

Given this is the last team preview of the year, I just wanted to thank everyone for reading and providing kind words on them. It's crazy that another year is already in the books! Hopefully the team can close out the year strong and CC can work the transfer portal in his favor over the next couple of months.

Projected Score: Duquesne 80, GW 68. 15% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 9.7% chance to end the regular season with a W.
 

Although I generally don't bet on GW (winning is enough joy for me), I could not resist betting the Revs and getting 10.5 points today, as well as betting the money line at +460.

more and more turnovers. 

With the exception of a couple deep Bishop 3s and one turnaround fadeaway by Max, feels like we are getting pretty good shots.  Actually a rare game that feels like we are getting better shots than our opponent (Duqs have hit like 3 longer midrange shots that looked like bad shots).

Biggest challenge is that Duq leads the league in forcing turnovers and we are obliging that stat right now.  Still, we are right in this.

Stupid turnover by us leads to a 3 by D. Sick

Uh oh, Duques shots starting to fall.

Not sure having Stretch unsuccessful coming outside to double team or whatever he is trying to do, is a good idea.

Last edited by jf (3/09/2024 2:52 pm)

Good close to the half

Max!