Posted by Gwmayhem 4/15/2024 11:47 am | #1 |
Some people thought it would take 5 years. Others thought it would be more like 10 years. Well, it's been 8, so we know that 5 was off the mark.
8 years since the NIT Championship. 8 years since we were playing and defeating schools like UVA, Tennessee, Seton Hall, Penn State, Rutgers, South Florida, UCF, Florida, San Diego State and Valpo. Go back one season and note the victories over DePaul, Colorado, Wichita State and Pittsburgh. One more season and you'll note wins again over Miami and Rutgers, plus Creighton, Maryland and Georgia. Oh, and in conference? Those GW teams finished in 5th, tied for 6th, and 3rd place respectively. Even if you believe that those teams underachieved in conference play, the stark contrast to what has happened to this program over these 8 years could not be any more blatant.
It all begs this question...is this program EVER getting back to the point where it can realistically compete for A10 double byes and NCAA tournament berths? Now, "ever" is a longer time for some than others, but nevertheless, we are two seasons away from what many pessimists here had forecast and yet, we don't seem to be closer to reaching this point. "Is Caputo the guy" may soon need to be replaced with "could anyone be the guy?" The international pipeline, a specialty under Mike Jarvis and Ed Meyers, has become oversaturated with hundreds of programs seeking the next Yinka Dare or Sasha Koul. NIL? I keep hearing that we're OK on this front (could always be doing better, obviously) but given the level of support the program receives with respect to student interest, paid attendance, and private donations, are we or will we ever be able to compete with the Daytons, VCU's and St. Louis's whose budgets must dwarf GW's?
Take away NIL and GW still has many of the same salient benefits it always has had...a great city, a great education, and a great arena. It will at some point have a new practice facility. I would like to have added a great basketball history as well but with each passing year, that history appears further and further in the rear view mirror. If NIL is the final nail in the coffin (not suggesting this as fact but this should be considered a possibility), do we want to continue down this road of bottom or near-bottom tiered A10 team? At some point, we must ask whether it's cooler to lose A10 games and stop dreaming about the dance or take on a steady diet of say American East teams (or whatever lower conference GW wants that will have them) with the hope of getting hot in March. There was a point in my life where I never would have chosen the latter. Today, I am less certain.
Eight years ago, I looked at these 5-10 year projections and thought, "my God, I sure hope not." That then changed to "well as long as we will be in a position to compete again at a high level, then there's no choice but to wait it out." That comes with the assumption that things are on the upswing and that there's a light at the end of the tunnel. 8 years later...no real upswing and no real light. Is this post overly pessimistic or right on the money?
Posted by Joel Joseph 4/15/2024 12:28 pm | #2 |
I was one of those "pessimists" who used the term "decade" to describe the time it would take us to overcome this self inflicted wound from 2016. At the time, I was in shock by how GW could "F up" a program that was on such an upward projectory but hoping for 4-5 years instead of the decade I was projecting.
8 years later, I believe that incident destroyed our program and any hope that we will ever recover. We cannot adapt to the changing D-1 Athletics and NCAA landscape after that incident. It's impacted recruiting, the school can't afford to compete in this landscape and the majority of the school administration, students, alums could care less about basketball. NIL is another issue but we are lacking in this area as well.
It may not be the America East, but I believe our future will be to de-emphasize athletics by moving to a conference like the Patriot League (in which I think we are best suited for instead of the NEC, MAAC, AE, etc.
If CC can't rise up this sunken ship next year, he could be gone after his 3rd year with no success like the 2 coaches before him. I have always said TV needs to go. Perhaps the school will make wholesale changes after blowing this thing up and starting over.
Just look at this board as an example of how low we have fallen. I used to enjoy reading posts after and before games 8+ years ago when we had hundreds of posts on a topic. Now we have only a handful of people who follow this board, less who actually post on a regular basis and one (Dude) who posts 20 times a day, often being the only one responding to his own posts.
Posted by GW Alum Abroad 4/15/2024 3:00 pm | #3 |
More important than the dismissal of an abusive bigot who got in to a public spat with his boss is the fact that the University is on its fourth President since winning the NIT. Not only has the college sports panorama changed, but the policy dynamic at GW has gone through massive swings. No school goes through that much leadership upheaval and comes out unscathed, GW is no exception.
The women's team has lost a step (or two, or ten) since Joe McKeown left for family reasons, but did rebuild after Joe's successor proved unable to do the job (before again regressing). Volleyball, baseball and both football/soccer teams have proven that a few down seasons do not permanently tank the program. So men's basketball can return to some semblance of glory. HOWEVER, the post-pndemic NIL/megaconference world we are in now will be more of a hindrance than any H.R. moves made last decade.
Adapt or die. It is a "new world order" that sports are operating in now. The football-induced reallignment that appeases the gods (ABC/ESPN and NewsCorp/Fox, in this case) leaves small schools like GW in a more difficult position than ever before, even if an NIT banner hangs in the gym. GW cannot compete with Ohio St, U$C, Alabama, LSU or even Nike-backed Oregon on an even financial playing field. This, more than any perceived "self harm" eight years ago, is what should be worrying Colonials-cum-Revolutionaries fans.
So to win, GW needs to have consistent administrative support and then to parlay its advantages to attain its niche. (Applies to sports as well as other fields-- would be dumb to try to turn the school in to yet another run-of-the-mill STEM school, for example). Let other schools provide recruits hookers and drugs and mortgage payments (Coach Cal, anyone?), and let GW focus on what makes it such a good place to earn a degree from. That might not land too many obvious NBA first rounders, but consistent roster churn is not winning many games for GW right now.
Posted by Joel Joseph 4/15/2024 3:23 pm | #4 |
Some here need a reality check. GW is not considered a "top" academic university nationwide. Georgetown and UVA have always been light years ahead of GW. Maryland has caught up and now exceeds GW in the "research universities" rankings. Our academic rankings have been dropping or stalled for over a decade now. As far as athletics, GW is near or at the bottom of most sports consistently (since we got rid of squash!). Our peer schools are not UMD, UVA and Gtown so there's no comparison academically or athletically.
I'm not so sure we are appealing to a conference like the Patriot League?
Back to the thread topic. It's depressing we are still talking about the state of disrepair in our program 8 years and counting later!
Posted by GW0509 4/15/2024 3:54 pm | #5 |
A reality check is that these professional basketball players don’t care about academics. Most of these transfers are majoring in “general studies” like they’re going to community college. Kids are even transferring out of the Ivy League, who you’d think care about academics, to make more money.
Here’s how one visit was described:
I am surprised at times that people close to the game haven’t realized what we sold in recruiting 5yrs ago isn’t what we are selling now. Just finished a visit the kid had:
- No academic meetings
- No campus tour
- Met with collective
- Met with head coach
Visit was 18 hours.
It has been a long 8 years but it’s also been the most disruptive 8 (really 4) years in college sports. It’s almost not worth comparing our current state to the Lonergan teams, let alone Hobbs or Jarvis, because it would simply not be possible to keep those teams together without Big East level NIL money. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but even in our glory days we wouldn’t be fundraising $3-4 million annually for player salaries.
Posted by jf 4/15/2024 5:26 pm | #6 |
For some reason, we like to talk about everything but how we got here.
It's relevant today because we are in the dumpster--and have been for nearly 8 years, except for a leftover year with a team that was seized from the former coach just before the season started.
The zenith of our efforts since then, has been getting waxed in the CBI 7 years ago, a year after we won the NIT championship.
We destroyed the career of a man with a family and huge loyalty to us (to the point of ironically turning down triple his salary to stay at GW). Deadspin neatly refuted the allegations, with a bonus video. And the cool roughly $3 million GW payout to the former coach so the real story didn't come out in public, backed that.
The stench still remains though, leaving us unable to compete in a new environment. Who would have ever thought we would be the doormat of the A-10?
And this is happening even with a coach who seems pretty knowledgeable and has experience with a high level program. And with having literally some of the best players in the league. The coach and those remaining players, plus a new cast, can lead us out of this morass.
Still, the question in the initial post was can anyone win here? Had high hopes, but not sure of the answer, anymore. The way we blew up our own program increases the already huge challenges a program at our level faces in today's college basketball environment.
Beginning to wonder if maybe we just cursed ourselves with what we did to ML--and our program?
Posted by GWAlum2001 4/15/2024 7:49 pm | #7 |
Took St Bonaventure about 9 years to recover from the welding incident, we are due.
Posted by Gwmayhem 4/16/2024 9:50 am | #8 |
I don't think this should be a discussion about why or how we got here. Some people know the truth, some think they know the truth, and some are beyond caring anymore about the truth.
My reasoning behind this post was to pose whether GW is ever getting out of this hole. That may sound dramatic and in the olden days, most would say "yes" because these things run in cycles and it would just be a question of time. When, not if. What has changed is more or less everything. If GW simply does not have the budgets/coffers to bring in competitive basketball teams capable of competing for A10 championships, then it's probably fair to ask whether the school still belongs in the A10.
This admittedly has a defeatist tone...that's what 8 years and counting will do.
So, what's the answer? Keep trying and see if this program can consistently compete along the lines of Dayton or VCU. Or, essentially admit defeat by dropping to a lower level conference? And again, if you feel like GW can get to the point where it was conference-wise during the 1990's, how much more time should we be giving this, on top of the 8 years we've been at it?
Posted by AT Hiker 4/16/2024 10:18 am | #9 |
I'm kinda surprised at the "doom and gloom" posted here. Let's see how we do this coming year with June, Garrett, Jacoi and Autry in their 2nd season with some new big guys. I am optimistic after 58 years of GW hoops. Go, Revs!
Posted by DC Native 4/16/2024 12:24 pm | #10 |
I really wish people would just stop with the move down to a lesser conference talk. GW is NEVER going to voluntarily leave the A10 for a lesser conference. Fordham was a cellar dweller for decades before their recent revival. St. Bonaventure as well.
Posted by GWRising 4/16/2024 12:47 pm | #11 |
There are sort of two things at play here. First is GW's standing currently. In the short-term, we can have success although sustained success will be very difficult due to NIL and the transfer portal. We are in the era of mercenary basketball which makes it very difficult at MM or LM schools to maintain long-term success as rosters will be in flux and talent will be raided by HMs. So can CC hit it for a year here and there by making the right decisions ... absolutely.
Long-term is an entirely a different story. There is going to be a great break-up of the NCAA and simply put when that happens, GW (along with many other schools) will be left to the side. Hartford was the canary in coal mine. 10 years from now I doubt GW athletics will resemble anything like we've seen over the past 30 years. Schools will determine the juice isn't worth the squeeze of trying to compete with P5/6 multi-million dollar NIL budgets. I could see GW becoming not a Patriot League program but rather a D3 program. If you look at the profile of a school such as Case Western in terms of endowment, breadth of academic programs and location there isn't much difference. The big difference is the cost of athletics and at some point it will become prohibitive for GW just like most of these D3 schools (who regularly competed against D1 schools) determined years ago. The answer will not be Patriot League it will be a D3 model. You can choose to deny this all you want but it's going to happen absent NIL disappearing (and you can't put that genie back in the bottle). I would not be a long-term holder of GW athletics stock.
Posted by GW0509 4/16/2024 1:59 pm | #12 |
I don't think we admit defeat, but I think outside of Dayton, SLU, and VCU (because they are the de facto pro sports teams for those cities), there is going to be incredible randomness year-to-year. We just saw it with Duquesne and the year before with Fordham. I don't think we get to where it was in the 90s because teams just don't stay together that long. So what happens is we all go to sleep when the season ends, wake up in October, and see who is on our team and how they stack up to the rest of the conference.
Go on any A10 team's message board and fans are rightly pissed that they do all the right things (buy season tickets, attend games, donate to NIL, etc.) and yet there's no stopping the best players from being poached by the P5 schools.
Posted by squid 4/16/2024 2:15 pm | #13 |
Dropping conferences is a really bad idea. I’m actually surprised people are bringing it up. Less exposure, less money, less attention. It’s not going to solve the admin and money issues people have posted about. We really shouldn’t do it
Posted by FredD 4/16/2024 3:07 pm | #14 |
GWRising wrote:
There are sort of two things at play here. First is GW's standing currently. In the short-term, we can have success although sustained success will be very difficult due to NIL and the transfer portal. We are in the era of mercenary basketball which makes it very difficult at MM or LM schools to maintain long-term success as rosters will be in flux and talent will be raided by HMs. So can CC hit it for a year here and there by making the right decisions ... absolutely.
Long-term is an entirely a different story. There is going to be a great break-up of the NCAA and simply put when that happens, GW (along with many other schools) will be left to the side. Hartford was the canary in coal mine. 10 years from now I doubt GW athletics will resemble anything like we've seen over the past 30 years. Schools will determine the juice isn't worth the squeeze of trying to compete with P5/6 multi-million dollar NIL budgets. I could see GW becoming not a Patriot League program but rather a D3 program. If you look at the profile of a school such as Case Western in terms of endowment, breadth of academic programs and location there isn't much difference. The big difference is the cost of athletics and at some point it will become prohibitive for GW just like most of these D3 schools (who regularly competed against D1 schools) determined years ago. The answer will not be Patriot League it will be a D3 model. You can choose to deny this all you want but it's going to happen absent NIL disappearing (and you can't put that genie back in the bottle). I would not be a long-term holder of GW athletics stock.
FWIW I agree with the way you add thing up. GW has a handful of committed individuals. To weather this storm GW needs school spirit that treats athletics more like Dayton and less like Catholic. Second is leadership that puts a high value on winning basketball teams.
GW is not obligated to be either; so, agree a reckoning is coming
Posted by BGF 4/16/2024 3:10 pm | #15 |
I think everyone who thinks that we’re going to drop to a lower conference is missing the point.
If the NIL environment continues as it is currently, we won’t need to move down conferences. Our conference will simply continue to move down, so it is more similar to the lower mid major conferences. The gap between conferences will be an ever expanded haves versus have nots situation.
We won’t need to move down. The conference will do it for us.
Posted by Gwmayhem 4/16/2024 3:50 pm | #16 |
So let's ask this question....would you rather GW become (if these were your only choices):
Vermont....playing in a lesser conference but in the mix for an NCAA berth almost every year
La Salle or Fordham (prior to Keith Urgo)...a perennial bottom 4ish A10 school who could have occasional success but who by and large can't compete with most of the A10 almost every season
Posted by Long Suffering Fan 4/16/2024 4:04 pm | #17 |
jf wrote:
For some reason, we like to talk about everything but how we got here.
It's relevant today because we are in the dumpster--and have been for nearly 8 years, except for a leftover year with a team that was seized from the former coach just before the season started.
The zenith of our efforts since then, has been getting waxed in the CBI 7 years ago, a year after we won the NIT championship.
We destroyed the career of a man with a family and huge loyalty to us (to the point of ironically turning down triple his salary to stay at GW). Deadspin neatly refuted the allegations, with a bonus video. And the cool roughly $3 million GW payout to the former coach so the real story didn't come out in public, backed that.
The stench still remains though, leaving us unable to compete in a new environment. Who would have ever thought we would be the doormat of the A-10?
And this is happening even with a coach who seems pretty knowledgeable and has experience with a high level program. And with having literally some of the best players in the league. The coach and those remaining players, plus a new cast, can lead us out of this morass.
Still, the question in the initial post was can anyone win here? Had high hopes, but not sure of the answer, anymore. The way we blew up our own program increases the already huge challenges a program at our level faces in today's college basketball environment.
Beginning to wonder if maybe we just cursed ourselves with what we did to ML--and our program?
Although I generally agree with most of what is stated in this post, I think the statute of limitations has run on blaming our current woes on the Lonergan debacle. I think we are being done in by both NIL and the free transfer rule, which has caused us to be unable to retain many good basketball players over the past few seasons.
Posted by GWTKE 4/16/2024 5:08 pm | #18 |
DC Native wrote:
I really wish people would just stop with the move down to a lesser conference talk. GW is NEVER going to voluntarily leave the A10 for a lesser conference. Fordham was a cellar dweller for decades before their recent revival. St. Bonaventure as well.
Fordham was 6-12 in conference this year!
Reach for the stars!😫
Posted by Free Quebec 4/16/2024 9:40 pm | #19 |
Long Suffering Fan wrote:
jf wrote:
For some reason, we like to talk about everything but how we got here.
It's relevant today because we are in the dumpster--and have been for nearly 8 years, except for a leftover year with a team that was seized from the former coach just before the season started.
The zenith of our efforts since then, has been getting waxed in the CBI 7 years ago, a year after we won the NIT championship.
We destroyed the career of a man with a family and huge loyalty to us (to the point of ironically turning down triple his salary to stay at GW). Deadspin neatly refuted the allegations, with a bonus video. And the cool roughly $3 million GW payout to the former coach so the real story didn't come out in public, backed that.
The stench still remains though, leaving us unable to compete in a new environment. Who would have ever thought we would be the doormat of the A-10?
And this is happening even with a coach who seems pretty knowledgeable and has experience with a high level program. And with having literally some of the best players in the league. The coach and those remaining players, plus a new cast, can lead us out of this morass.
Still, the question in the initial post was can anyone win here? Had high hopes, but not sure of the answer, anymore. The way we blew up our own program increases the already huge challenges a program at our level faces in today's college basketball environment.
Beginning to wonder if maybe we just cursed ourselves with what we did to ML--and our program?
Although I generally agree with most of what is stated in this post, I think the statute of limitations has run on blaming our current woes on the Lonergan debacle. I think we are being done in by both NIL and the free transfer rule, which has caused us to be unable to retain many good basketball players over the past few seasons.
The landscape of college basketball changed when we were down, which is kind of a killer. Compare to, say, Butler, who parlayed two great seasons right as conference realignment was getting started into a move from the Horizon to the A10 to the Big East.
Posted by Alum1 4/16/2024 10:48 pm | #20 |
squid wrote:
Dropping conferences is a really bad idea. I’m actually surprised people are bringing it up. Less exposure, less money, less attention. It’s not going to solve the admin and money issues people have posted about. We really shouldn’t do it
Amen. Stupid is as stupid does. Bad idea.