Tough to really read anything- they played Wake Forest and took the expected loss but won against a D2? Squad in their opener and scored 50.  DMV has his work cut out for him but he always delivers

We fall somewhere in between "not good enough to take any nights off and expect an easy win" and "next level intensity vs NC A&T should not be needed."  Aside from the MTE, there simply are no good losses on the OOC schedule.
 

North Carolina A&T Aggies
Date: Tuesday November 12th, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 277th (KenPom), 305th (Bart Torvik), 311th (Haslametrics), 285th (EvanMiya), 313th (Sports Illustrated)
2023-24 Record: 7-25, 5-13 (12th in CAA)
2024-25 Projected Record: 13-18, 8-10 (T-7th in CAA)

Head-to-Head: This will surprisingly be the first ever matchup against the Aggies despite NC A&T being a D1 team since 1970. While GW has no previous history against A&T, both Trey (Moss) and Gerald obviously do having faced them in CAA play last year. Moss averaged 17.5 ppg in two games, while Drumgoole averaged 22 ppg in two games on 7-15 combined shooting from 3.

Offensive Efficiency: 282nd (KenPom), 264th (Bart Torvik), 301st (Haslametrics), 295th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 256th (KenPom), 345th (Bart Torvik), 328th (Haslametrics), 249th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 56th (KenPom), 90th (Bart Torvik), 124th (Haslametrics), 107th (EvanMiya)

Strengths (2023-24 season):
Turnovers Per Game: 9.4 TO/G (10th)
Fouls Per Game: 15.3 PF/G (54th)
Turnover Margin: +1.5 TO/G (85th)

Weaknesses (2023-24 season):
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 10.8 TO/G (267th)
Three Point Percentage Defense: 35.2% (280th)
Steals Per Game: 5.6 SPG (281st)
Three Pointers Made Per Game: 6 3PM/G (307th)
Bench Points Per Game: 13.6 PPG (316th)
Scoring Defense: 77.9 PPG (319th)
Rebounds Per Game: 31.9 RPG (327th)
Scoring Offense: 65.6 PPG (332nd)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 22.5 DRPG (334th)
Winning Percentage: 21.9% (335th)
Three Point Percentage: 28.7% (341st)
Assists Per Game: 10.2 APG (342nd)
Field Goal Percentage Defense: 48% (342nd)
Scoring Margin: -12.4 PPG (343rd)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: 43.9% (347th)
Field Goal Percentage: 38.8% (348th)
Rebound Margin: -8.9 RPG (349th)

Projected Starting Lineup:
#3 G Camian Shell (Junior; Winston-Salem, NC) - 12.3 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.3 spg; 38% FG, 31% 3-PT, 87% FT per 34 mpg/31 GP at North Carolina A&T last season
#7 G Landon Glasper (Junior; Fayetteville, AR) - 20.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.4 spg; 36% FG, 30% 3-PT, 76% FT per 36.1 mpg/24 GP at North Carolina A&T last season
#5 G Jahnathan Lamothe (Sophomore; Baltimore, MD) - 0.8 ppg, 0.7 rpg; 25% FG, 18% 3-PT, 50% FT per 6.9 mpg/16 GP at Maryland last season
#15 G Jalal McKie (Sophomore; Atlanta, GA) - 8.3 ppg, 3 rpg; 37% FG, 32% 3-PT, 84% FT at North Carolina A&T last season
#34 C Will Felton (RS Sophomore; Raleigh, NC) - DNP at Arizona State last season

Key Bench Players:
#4 G Bryson Ogletree (Sophomore; Hampton, GA) - 6.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.5 apg; 47% FG, 40% 3-PT, 79% FT per 14.3 mpg/32 GP at South Plains College (JUCO) last season
#16 F Nikolaos Chitikoudis (Sophomore; East Thessalonki, Greece) - 7.1 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.1 spg, 1.4 bpg; 48% FG, 30% 3-PT, 51% FT per 24.9 mpg/28 GP at North Carolina A&T last season
#1 G Ryan Forrest (Sophomore; Marion, AR) - 11.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg; 39% FG, 23% 3-PT, 62% FT per 20.2 mpg/10 GP at Northwestern State last season
#13 C Jason Murphy (Senior; Owings Mills, MD) - 6.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.1 bpg; 44% FG, 53% FT per 25.7 mpg/20 GP at North Carolina A&T last season
#0 G Kyle Duke (Senior; Mississauga, Canada) - 5.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.4 apg; 38% FG, 25% 3-PT, 87% FT per 19.5 mpg/31 GP at North Carolina A&T last season
#10 G Uchenna Kellman-Nicholes (Sophomore; Orlando, FL) - 4.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1 apg; 29% FG, 27% 3-PT, 57% FT per 25.3 mpg/30 GP at North Carolina A&T last season

Key Losses:
Jeremy Robinson (Graduated; Raleigh, NC) - 7.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg; 54% FG, 22% 3-PT, 66% FT per 20.6 mpg/21 GP
Evan Joyner (Graduated; Greensboro, NC) - 3.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg; 36% FG, 21% 3-PT, 54% FT per 19 mpg/32 GP

Preview:
College basketball has changed a great deal in the past ten years. Between NIL, the transfer portal, immediately eligibility, conference realignment, soon to be 15 man rosters, and other things if feels like an expectation at this point that there will be some considerable change every change. There isn't a program in the country that hasn't felt the effects of this, however some have dealt with it better than others. During this time, programs are looking for any stability that they can find.

For North Carolina A&T, the hope would be that second year coach Monté Ross is the man to lead them forward for the next several years. Many of the things that were talked about in the Hampton preview are still relevant here, however A&T has not had a coach leading them for even half a decade like Buck Joyner for a while. In fact, since 2012-13 (which also happens to be the last time they made the tournament), NC A&T has seen six different coaches lead the program, which makes things even more challenging in the new CBB era. Also, while the Aggies followed the same conference realignment path as Hampton to get to their new conference (MEAC -> Big South -> CAA) they arguably had a tougher transition.

NC A&T made their transition to the Big South during the 2021-22 season in the midst of COVID, and only spent one season there before heading to the CAA and changing coaches again. I'm not saying Willie Jones did a spectacular job in the Big South (12-20, 6-10) but he was coming off a 7-1 finish in MEAC play in 2020-21 (shortened by COVID) and the administration fired him in August, just months before the start of the season. At that point, why elevate an assistant to interim head coach instead of just waiting a year to see if a change has to be made? I can't help but feel NC A&T set themselves unnecessarily back by doing that only to bring in Ross a season later when interim Phillip Shumpert understandably did not have a great year (although it wasn't really that bad given all the mess - he went 13-19, 8-10 in the CAA). Last season (year 2 in CAA) was another step back for the program due to another coaching change.

Florida A&M and Maryland Eastern-Shore had somewhat similar issues this past offseason and I just question some of these administrations. Back in August, the FAMU Board of Trustees gave new coach Patrick Crarey II a one year contract. That's right, a program that hasn't had a winning season in 17 years is making a new coach prove themselves in one year. Jason Crafton, who did a spectacular job at UMES all things considered with his defense-first identity, was let go in May just a season removed from the Hawks finishing above .500 overall and in conference. That had not been done there since 2014-15. Eastern Shore graduated a lot of seniors two seasons ago leading to a down year last season but success at that kind of a school is still cyclical. Maybe their new coach performs well, but given the history of the school (or lack thereof) the change felt like one that didn't need to be made. It's understandable that coaches are under fire to win a lot sooner nowadays, but at some places they still need time to build something, especially when the history is not there.

Anyways, the Aggie program can only go up from here as they finally have a coach returning for a second year for the first time since 2020-21. Ross is a native of Philadelphia, and he had not left the area in his coaching career prior to A&T (assistant at Lehigh, Drexel, St. Joe's, & Temple; head coach at Delaware). However, he does have a connection to the Tar Heel State having played CBB at Winston-Salem State, just 30 miles west of A&T. It also certainly doesn't hurt that he coached a decade in the CAA already at Delaware from 2006 to 2016 (although the Blue Hens will be leaving for the CUSA after this year). Ross notably guided UDel to the NCAA tournament in 2014, winning both the regular season and conference championships and taking home the coach of the year award. Delaware may not have the highest ceiling of schools in the conference, but Ross only finished above .500 in conference play just three times in ten years. He completely bottomed out in his last year, winning 2 CAA games and 7 just overall. A&T has a lot of things going for it as a program, but right now it's probably a tougher job than Delaware. Ross has his work cut out for him.

The Aggies bring back seven of their top eight guys from last year which provides a great launching pad going into this year. Although these players were put through the wringer last year (A&T started 0-9, and were outscored by a combined 149 points in six games in November) they started to show some positive signs after that. As can be seen above in the "strengths" section, the Aggies won the turnover battle against their competition last season, but not in the way you would think for an ex-MEAC squad. A&T did not turn teams over much but on offense they were rock solid with the ball, ranking 10th nationally in turnovers per game. Only UNC Wilmington fared better in the CAA. Camian Shell deserves much of that credit with an assist to turnover ratio of 2.27, which ranked 87th nationally. While playmaking was his best trait, he was also perhaps A&T's most disruptive defender along the perimeter last year on-ball and found a great deal of success getting to the FT line, where he converted on 87% of his attempts, the top mark in the conference.

Many of Shell's passes were to Landon Glasper, the leading scorer last year for North Carolina A&T. Glasper ranked 21st nationally in points per game, and scored in double figures in every game he appeared in outside of their season opener against Pittsburgh last year. The Aggies were not subtle about who was getting the ball on offense last year, as Glasper was given the greenest of lights to let it fly from anywhere on the floor. He is a threat offensively from all three levels and can apply pressure defensively, but Ross will be hoping for significantly better efficiency from him this year. Perhaps the arrival of additional scoring threats will help as well. Against Wake Forest, Glasper took 29(!) shots, of which 20 were from 3.

Jalal McKie, Nikolaos Chitikoudis, Jason Murphy, Kyle Duke, and Uchenna Kellman-Nicholes also return and started a number of games last year for the Aggies. While the Aggies are a bit bigger than GW's first two opponents have been so far (relatively speaking), Ross has opted to go with a four guard lineup to start things off, with the scrappy McKie manning one of those spots.

McKie finished his freshman year on a strong note, scoring in double figures in his final seven games and competing on the glass. Like Shell and Glasper, he's a good FT shooter but a bit up-and-down from behind the arc. Chitikoudis hails from Greece and showed some good things on both sides of the ball. He finished first on the team in total rebounds, but notably gave the Aggies a presence at the rim defensively, where he ranked 110th nationally in blocks per game. Murphy provided similar abilities, with a tad better rebounding and a tad less shot blocking. He began his career at NJIT (a future opponent for GW) before making his way to Frostburg State where he averaged a near double double for a pretty bad team. As a St. Frances Academy alum/Baltimore guy, you know that he will provide toughness down low.

Duke and Kellman-Nicholes provide additional guard depth with positional size. Neither one has suited up so far this season. Duke, a Canadian, is another guy whose FT percentage suggests a better shooter is in there somewhere but he shot just 12/49 from 3 last year. He has experience, but Ross may look to his newcomers/younger guys with the long-term outlook in mind. Kellman-Nicholes was another first year guy who saw run last year. A sophomore jump could be in the cards, or at the very least that would be the hope after some truly brutal shooting numbers across the board last season. If neither one can take strides forward and some of the newcomers don't pop immediately, that could open up an opportunity for Marquavious "Qua" Brown, an athletic guard who once had a GW offer and some other high-major offers in HS. Brown redshirted last year as a freshman. He has a nose for the ball and is adept at attacking the hoop.

Ross landed five guys from the portal this offseason, with four coming from other D1 institutions. The biggest catch from a scoring perspective might be Ryan Forrest, who had some big games early on for the Northwestern State Demons (shoutout Mike Brey!) before going down with a season-ending injury in mid-December. Theoretically, he could draw attention away from Glasper but he also needs to improve his efficiency and be more than a "good stats, bad team" guy. Still, it's a smart pickup by Ross as Forrest is only a sophomore, so he can grow together with the existing core.

Jahnathan Lamothe (Maryland) and Will Felton (Arizona State) also enter their second years and come from high-major programs which should allow them to compete for starts right away. Lamothe was an especially good get, a former three-star/top 150-ish recruit who played at St. Frances in Baltimore (just like Murphy). Like many other Terrapins, he endured a season-long brick fest from behind the arc (somehow NC A&T was even worse) but the raw talent is undeniable. At the CAA level, he should have great success attacking off the bounce and getting to the line. There is some shooting upside as well. It wouldn't be surprising to see him lead the team in scoring, but the presence of other high-usage guys like Glasper and Forrest may prevent that from happening. Felton returns home to North Carolina after riding the bench at ASU. He is a load down low at 6'9", 260 pounds which should allow him to carve out quite a bit of space in the paint defensively. Felton has a great touch near the hoop and should be A&T's best rebounder this year. When Ross wants to inject even more size into lineups, he can call upon the services of Efstratios Kalliontzis, a redshirt freshman who was apparently at La Salle last year. He may be a change of pace guy at times this year, but I'd imagine he still needs a bit of time to develop before he can get major minutes on the court.

The final transfer piece hails from the JUCO ranks, as Bryson Ogletree should remain a fixture in the rotation all year. While Ogletree's production was modest, he suited up for one of the top teams at the NJCAA D1 level in South Plains. That winning mentality will certainly help out, given the relative lack of success the other transfer pieces had at previous schools last year. Most importantly, Ogletree canned 40% of his threes last year - that in itself will be beneficial to this squad after last year's dismal performance. When André 3000 asked "What's cooler than being cool?" in "Hey Ya!", the "ice cold" response he received could be used to describe NC A&T's shot chart last season. It was...rough.

I never got around to talking about the last game. Despite Hampton not being good at all (they lost to Bowie State in the preseason) that may have been the best defensive performance that I've seen in the CC era. Rotations were crisp, and it was like we knew where Hampton always wanted to go with the ball, whether it was posting Long down low or running an isolation set for Farrakhan. Mullen missing all his shots from the field can also be at least partly explained by good team defense. This team will need to get out to faster starts, but shoutout to both Jacoi and Trey (Autry) for getting to the basket more which opened things up outside. Was also really pleased with Christian's performance. His ball-handling so far has been good despite limited game action. CC rolled with a Jacoi-Trey (Autry)-CJ lineup for stretches of the first half which was cool to see. Hopefully, Gerald can get it going after a rough start. You can see the frustration from him so far. Also, the coaching staff needs to find a way to get Sean to shoot the ball a bit more. Hansen does a great job making the right play and doing the little things (that feed to Autry for the dunk was the best play from the Hampton game) but there's no reason Keegan should have more field goal attempts through two games than him. Rafael was also great again, although perhaps A&T will be his biggest (literally) test yet. Still, GW should control the glass as the Aggies were poor in that category last year. NC A&T is looking to play fast, but GW has found success making teams play longer possessions on offense compared to previous years which is likely why our pace has slowed a bit to around 150th nationally. That will be something to watch tomorrow and going forward. Finally, we need to make sure Jun doesn't take any hard hits in these games. Every time he hits the deck hard it's very concerning. Hopefully Dayan can make his debut soon. It was interesting to see Zam not take the floor against Hampton after playing the opener but perhaps he's still not fully healthy yet. The Amir three was obviously really fun to close out the game as well. Beale Jr. played well for Hampton. I'm keeping a mental note of the standout performances from non-seniors that GW faces because the coaching staff could very well be going after them next offseason like they did with both Moss and Drumgoole.

Projected Score: GW 82, NC A&T 71. 84% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik gives us a 90% chance at a W. ESPN projects that GW has an 86.8% chance at a win.
 

Happy to see NCA&T Assistant Coach Ricky Moore coming to Smitty.  He was a great defensive guard at UCONN from 1999-2003 and named to all final four team as a result of his play against Duke.  Also brings lots of coaching experience.    

Ty Bevins not dressed tonight.

Zam’s brace is on his right hand. Also out for tonight.

Heckuva good half, all things considered, the DBJr and Castro duo is legit

Absolute monster 1st half for Castro viva la revolucion for the Revs

We have come out with less intensity on defense and it shows.  Let A&T back in the game

I was just thinking at halftime how although Caputo’s record in the A10 isn’t any better than his predecessors, at least his teams haven’t lost to any bottom feeders. And then this happened…

NC shooting over 50% from field. D seems to be lacking.

Until we can get some reliable 3 point shooting teams will learn to pack it in and force us to hit 3s.