GW Hoops / The predict the conference record thread

**Posted by Long Suffering Fan** 12/26/2024 11:48 am

Plus one or 2 sentences why.
7-9: We are on the road to becoming an average A-10 team. We will improve as the season progresses and win more games than last season, but I have not yet seen anything yet this season that indicates we can beat a top 100 team (of which there are 6 in the conference) or a top 200 team on the road. Hope I am pleasantly surprised.

**Posted by LA Colonial** 12/26/2024 12:10 pm

7-9 will not happen given that we play 18 conference games, not 16. I am interested to see what role Nessah plays especially since he has missed eight games. I think he can make a difference if he is playing at least 15 mnutes a game and is as good as he is projected to be.

**Posted by GW Alum Abroad** 12/26/2024 12:40 pm

5-13. Being good against NJIT and Hampton is not the same as being competitive in the A10. Soft interior play dooms the team to relying on hot outside shooting, which will not always happen. Trying to be positive, but the loss to AU haunts me.

**Posted by GW0509** 12/26/2024 1:16 pm

10-8. First 20 win season since Mojo’s first year with ML’s players.

**Posted by Long Suffering Fan** 12/26/2024 1:24 pm

LA Colonial wrote:
7-9 will not happen given that we play 18 conference games, not 16. I am interested to see what role Nessah plays especially since he has missed eight games. I think he can make a difference if he is playing at least 15 mnutes a game and is as good as he is projected to be.

My bad: Meant 7-11.

**Posted by Gwmayhem** 12/26/2024 2:47 pm

I'll say 9-9 optimistically which is akin to 7-11 or 8-10 realistically. I would be genuinely disappointed with a 6-12 or worse finish.

One thing about the AU loss is that it was a classic example of what happens when a team plays "not to lose." It's easy to make the case that there was considerable pressure on GW to win this game given the local rivalry and the two recent prior AU wins. Considering that AU has a worse KenPom ranking than each A10 team, and that only UMASS and Richmond have worse NET rankings than AU, it stands to reason that there will not be very many conference games where GW will have to worry about an embarrassing loss in the same way that it did against the Eagles.

**Posted by DC Native** 12/26/2024 4:49 pm

As I mentioned in another thread a few days ago, if we beat every team ranked lower than us in NET and KenPom and lose to every team ranked higher, we finish 9-9, due to a favorable schedule. I think that is probably the most likely outcome of the year. But I am really hoping that they beat at least one of the higher ranked teams, plus 1 or 2 more at home to make up for the inevitable 1 or 2 losses to lower ranked teams on the road, to finish 10-8.

Last edited by DC Native (12/26/2024 4:50 pm)

**Posted by Alum1** 12/26/2024 7:25 pm

What GW Alum Abroad said.

P.S. I’ll have what DC Native and GW0509 are having.

**Posted by Basketball Jones** 12/26/2024 10:29 pm

W - St. Louis, LaSalle(2), Duquesne, Fordham, Umass(2), Richmond (2) = 9 wins

Middle to bottom of the league is not very good
OOC schedule does little to prepare the team to play against good teams

9-9 Conference record

**Posted by gwstudent2024** 12/26/2024 11:08 pm

8-10. I think we can beat a top 6 team but we'll also have a few bad losses

**Posted by RaiseHigh'96** 12/27/2024 6:13 am

It pains me to say this because there is some legit promise with this team, but I am on team 8-10 or 7-11 with others.

I would be with the 9-9'ers, but I think we unfortunately lose the first three games in a spiral and then right the ship to beat those below us and lose to those above us. My glass half full comment is we stay out of pillow fight and win 2 games in A10 tourney. 🤷‍♂️

Last edited by RaiseHigh'96 (12/27/2024 6:32 am)

**Posted by Hoopsfan23** 12/27/2024 9:52 am

Im optimistic that we can handle Richmond. Even if away there will be very few students to even out the playing field

**Posted by Gwmayhem** 12/27/2024 12:34 pm

Hoopsfan23 wrote:
Im optimistic that we can handle Richmond. Even if away there will be very few students to even out the playing field

This may wind up meaning nothing but we are catching Richmond at the right time. They have no great wins, shaky home wins over Maine and VMI, dubious road losses at William & Mary and at Bucknell, home losses to Marist and Belmont, and were blown out by Auburn (no real shame) and Charlotte (a bit more shameful). Chris Mooney teams tend to improve over the course of a season as the players become more familiar with his system. Most of the roster is unrecognizable with Jordan King, Neil Quinn, Isaiah Bigelow and Andre Gustavson all playing professionally overseas. GW needs to take advantage to avoid a potential 0-3 start.

**Posted by GW73** 12/29/2024 11:37 am

Here's my hope I am wrong prediction: 5-13. W - Duquesne, St. Louis, Richmond, UMass, LaSalleL — at Richmond, Dayton, at Rhode Island, at Mason, at UMass, at LaSalle, Mason, at St, Bona, VCU, at Davidson, St. Joe’s, at Loyola, at Fordham.
Not sure how we can do much better (maybe at Richmond), we look like we are an above average Patriot League team at best. But hey, it's one win better than last season. Unless we improve over the course of the A10 season, I am not sure we are better than last season's team. Last season's win at VCU doesn't look so far like anything that this team could do.
As I said, I sure hope I am wrong, but it looks like another season of winning against weak teams in the OCC and then heading to the bottom of the A10.
Where do I get those rose-colored glasses of posters seeing 8, 9 or 10 wins?

**Posted by RaiseHigh'96** 1/08/2025 9:36 pm

RaiseHigh'96 wrote:
It pains me to say this because there is some legit promise with this team, but I am on team 8-10 or 7-11 with others.

I would be with the 9-9'ers, but I think we unfortunately lose the first three games in a spiral and then right the ship to beat those below us and lose to those above us. My glass half full comment is we stay out of pillow fight and win 2 games in A10 tourney. 🤷‍♂️

Happy to eat crow on my lack of faith. A lot of basketball to play but LETS F'ING GO!!!!

Team first mentality. Growth on D. Assists!! Different people stepping up. Dayan and Christian doing their thing. Congrats to the team and coaches. Keep the faith gents.

**Posted by PKGW** 1/08/2025 9:42 pm

KenPom now up to 105

**Posted by Hoopsfan23** 1/09/2025 3:35 pm

I’ve gone full delusional, and think we go 13-5. losses @mason,davidson,bonnies and one to la salle/fordham for good measure.

**Posted by GW0509** 1/10/2025 2:19 pm

As of now, we have a better chance at a top 4 seed than we do ending up in the play-in games. Our expected W/L record is 10-8.

**Posted by RaiseHigh'96** 1/10/2025 3:33 pm

GW0509 wrote:
As of now, we have a better chance at a top 4 seed than we do ending up in the play-in games. Our expected W/L record is 10-8.

This is really fascinating "predictive" data. St Louis seems to be really coming together yet they have a relatively lower predictive threshold than us and while they play Dayton twice, amongst other challenges in their schedule, I will just say that I have questions.

**Posted by GWRising** 1/10/2025 4:46 pm

Sign me up for the 5th seed. A fifth seed would likely mean we won probably 11 games. Considering where we've been that would be a huge accomplishment.