GW Hoops / The March Madness Thread

**Posted by The Dude** 3/01/2026 6:23 pm

March is here and The Madness is near.

VCU sits firmly on the just in lines on bubbles, and Saint Louis looks like a virtual lock

Nationally, you have Danny Hurley heading to another 1 seed and a run at 3rd National Title in 4 years, and the defending Champs Florida the hottest team in the country.

Michigan and Duke though look like the 2 favorites. Jon Scheyer, just 38 had done a tremendous job keeping the Duke juggernaut rolling down the tracks and Dusty May has restored Michigan to where Beilien had the program

Can undefeated Miami survive 1 conf tourney loss and still reach the Dance?

Could The A10 steal a bid with a GW or Dayton or Mason tourney champion and sneak up to 3 teams into March Madness?

The Madness awaits

**Posted by BC** 3/01/2026 7:55 pm

That's Miami of Ohio right?

**Posted by Basketball Jones** 3/01/2026 10:52 pm

A-10 will steal a bid if anyone other than St. Louis or VCU wins the A-10 Tourney, with Dayton as the likely bid thief

**Posted by Columbia Heights Colonial** 3/02/2026 9:28 am

Miami (OH) definitely still gets in even with a loss in their conference tourney.

**Posted by Gwmayhem** **Online!** 3/02/2026 11:24 am

Nobody is suggesting that a zero loss Miami, Ohio team ought to be treated the same as say a two loss Michigan team. Nobody.

And yet, we are actually having theoretical conversations about whether a 14 loss Auburn team should get in over a 1 loss Miami, OH team.

The point isn't to pretend or rely on analytics to decide that Auburn would likely defeat Miami. The point is to properly reward Miami, OH for the season it had. Maybe their OOC could have been better but I have no trouble believing that P5 schools turned them down.

Should a 14 loss team receive an at large ahead of a 1 or even a 2 or 3 loss team? This is right out of The Twilight Zone. Put these unfairly weighted computer metrics down for just a second and let common sense take over, please.

**Posted by The Dude** 3/02/2026 3:03 pm

AP #19 Miami (OH) would according to all of the bracketologists I've seen, be left out with a loss in their Conf tourney, as they are a 12 seed on these forecasts with the auto bid. A loss would surely drop them out if they are correct.

This was always the end game for the rigged "Quad 1-4" system, better to be 1-10 vs Quad 1 then 0-0
Miami has a Quad 2 win, and would clearly have more if they had a chance.

This is the MAC too, not the MEAC, most of the teams are 50-220, so while they didn't get more than 1 chance at a "Quad 1-2" win, they did beat a lot of teams on the road in the 100s.

In contrast, Indiana is 4-13 vs Quad 1-2 and on the bubble, if you do get these games and you lose almost all of them, that's superior to 1-0? How many losses washes away a few wins?

Same story year after year since this supremely rigged system went in

This VCU would team would have been about an 8 seed 10-20 years ago, they are barely in now, and maybe out. A lot of the GW 8-9 at large seed seasons would surely be left out now with this system.

Now, the most ridiculous case of them all, Saint Louis is 26-3, 2-1 in Quad 1 and 7-2 Quad 1-2, Palm has them as a 10 seed. 10 seed?? He has 2-10 Quad 1 Ohio St a 9 seed. What is the possible justification for that? When Saint Louis got those games they won almost all of them. Ohio St lost almost all of them.

If you dont get them all (most teams) you have zero chance at all, even if you go 29-0 like Miami. So might as well cancel the season and just fast forward to the Conf Tourney! that's all that matters for 250 teams after all

The rest is just a way to over seed Power 5s and underseed the few non Power teams in the field, Gonzaga St Marys Saint Louis VCU Utah St (and that's about it)

Last edited by The Dude (3/02/2026 3:10 pm)

**Posted by DC Native** 3/02/2026 4:53 pm

The only way this ever changes is if the non-P5 conferences use their collective power and boycott the NCAA Tournament one year. We all know that will never happen, however, because money.

I used to look forward to watching the NCAA Tournament every year, and would watch as many games as I could. Now I only watch the games that include either an A10 team or one of the local teams (e.g., Maryland, UVA).

**Posted by The Dude** 3/02/2026 5:10 pm

Just a little over 10 years ago. Wichita State was undefeated, they got a one seed

What seed would they get today? 9? 11?

The prior year they lost six games in the Missouri valley conference and got an at large bid, a nine seed and went to the final four!

Can you imagine a six loss in conference Missouri valley team even being considered these days? Not a chance. They showed they belonged made the final four and then they almost ran the table the next season before running into a Kentucky team put to knock them out in the second round!

That was the old rig system. You try to knock the teams out with the bracket. Now you just get rid of them all together. Wherever you can

Chris said the system was rigged before the year and of course he's right, but you don't hear much at all. If anything from the media about the rigged system, they seem perfectly fine

Next year if we win the close games unlike this season, we might be the victims of it. Unless you have a near perfect season like Saint Louis, almost impossible. I'm not convinced VCU would actually get a bid if the selection was today. I think they would be left out

**Posted by Wisconsin Colonial 1974** 3/02/2026 5:22 pm

I remember when Bob Huggins was the WVU coach, he said that the NCAA shouldn’t allow the lower-tier schools into the tournament. “After all, we make all the money.”

Consider the source but trending in that direction. Who knows how long the automatic bids will be around? The tournament would lose much of its charm but it’s all about the money.

**Posted by The Dude** 3/02/2026 9:08 pm

The Bruce Pearl comments about Miami of Ohio being the bottom of a power conference if they were in one are making the rounds

How convenient that propaganda since it benefits his son and the team he quit on days before the season started the most, that kind of logic. Yet year after year we see teams with those kinds of seasons make deep runs in the tournament, Florida Atlantic, Gonzaga, Butler, Houston before they moved up

The computer systems must be so flawed to have Miami around 50, 50-100 spots ahead The bottom of the power 5!

Isn't that after all what the computer rankings are designed to show?? How teams with very different strength of schedules actually match up?

Auburn, despite their mediocre record probably is better than Miami and the computer suggests that they are, but to say that they are worse than the very bottom of the power conferences is completely ridiculous and he knows that.

Auburn doesn't belong because they've lost half of their games. Miami of Ohio does belong because they're undefeated

We don't need the 47th Best power conference team, The tournament was a much richer experience when they were more Cinderellas, but that system made the powers that be a little less Rich. So here we go... It's only going to get worse year by year

**Posted by Gwmayhem** **Online!** 3/03/2026 12:51 pm

The committees tend to rationalize that including a P5 school with double digit losses and a double digit seed makes sense because these are the schools that are good enough to get hot and make a serious run in the tournament. They conveniently "forget" that schools like URI, Dayton, Temple, VCU, George Mason, Davidson, Loyola, St. Peters, UNLV, Gonzaga, San Diego State, and Butler/Xavier while they were in mid-majors have all reached the Elite 8 or better.

The reality though is that they are not "forgetting" anything. Some of the worst rated Final 4's took place when Mason and VCU crashed the party. And while some mid-majors travel better than others, the best supported ones are not going to travel along the lines of an Ohio State, Indiana, or UCLA will travel. This is not only about making the P5 conferences richer; it is also about putting the most butts in the seats and the most eyeballs on screens during the Final 4.

This is why things are rigged and why the rigging has only gotten worse. Wins against Bubble is the latest NCAA metric which will be garnering the committee's attention and we find that Cincinnati ranks #66 and yet is still part of the at large conversation (while #68 Dayton is nowhere near the conversation). Miami, OH (32) trails Miami, FL (29). VCU (46) is ahead of Auburn (48) and Indiana (51) but likely trails both with respect to being realistically considered for an at large.

It's so easy to ask the question why the NCAA can't see what's happening here. Why mid-majors can't get enough Q1 games so that they may reasonably be compared to P5 programs. Why they can't dream of geting home games and are now finding neutral court games to be harder than ever to come by. Of course, the answer to all of this is relatively simple. The NCAA likes the money way too much to be overly concerned about helping out the smaller programs. They can't see because they choose not to see. The only two long-range scenarios I can envision is that it will always continue to be this way (even if the field gets expanded) or the midmajors and lower level conference programs are relegated to their own form of minor league basketball, completely separate from the P5 programs (plus perhaps a handful of exceptions).

There is zero point in crying about how unfair this is because NOBODY thinks that it is fair.

**Posted by The Dude** 3/03/2026 4:14 pm

Interesting facts via Joe Lunardi:

Miami has won four more true road games than Auburn has played, and road teams in men's college basketball win less than one-third of the time.

Finally, in the modern history of the NCAA tournament, great mid-majors have won almost twice as many games as middling high-majors, despite fewer bids and weaker seeding."

**Posted by The Dude** 3/04/2026 10:39 pm

Rhode Island wins again and they are now 3-1 in Quad 1

They are obviously not a tournament team but it goes to show your record in quad 1 doesn't necessarily mean much

On the other hand if Rhode Island can go 3-2, teams with 2-10 Quad 1 records should be eliminated from consideration

Ohio State, Indiana, etc

Miami is now 30-0 did not get to play a single quad one game so they are going to be on edge unless they win that conference tournament for the automatic bid.

Last edited by The Dude (3/07/2026 12:43 am)

**Posted by GW0509** 3/05/2026 11:03 am

Gwmayhem wrote:
Maybe their OOC could have been better but I have no trouble believing that P5 schools turned them down.

Someone actually went and FOIA'd Miami's requests for OOC games: https://x.com/MattBrownEP/status/2029549752400871618

Here is the list (according to someone who has access to the paywall)
Pittsburgh
Wisconsin
Marquette
USC
Oregon
Ohio State
Mississippi State
Florida

Response(s) but no agreement:
Michigan State
UCLA
Boise State
Grand Canyon
Kansas ("We'll need to look at next year")
BYU
Utah
Illinois ("I need to get two high NET games 300+ before I would think about playing you.")
Virginia Tech
Nebraska

That right there is why all the "schedule better" guys like Pearl and Jay Bilas are so full of shit. Either they are stupid or know better and are lying to kill off mid majors.

**Posted by Gwmayhem** **Online!** 3/05/2026 11:16 am

GW0509 wrote:
Gwmayhem wrote:
Maybe their OOC could have been better but I have no trouble believing that P5 schools turned them down.
Someone actually went and FOIA'd Miami's requests for OOC games: https://x.com/MattBrownEP/status/2029549752400871618

Here is the list (according to someone who has access to the paywall)
Pittsburgh
Wisconsin
Marquette
USC
Oregon
Ohio State
Mississippi State
Florida

Response(s) but no agreement:
Michigan State
UCLA
Boise State
Grand Canyon
Kansas ("We'll need to look at next year")
BYU
Utah
Illinois ("I need to get two high NET games 300+ before I would think about playing you.")
Virginia Tech
Nebraska

That right there is why all the "schedule better" guys like Pearl and Jay Bilas are so full of shit. Either they are stupid or know better and are lying to kill off mid majors.

Great find GW0509. My vote is for the latter. (Or in the case of Pearl, it's also about standing up for your son.)

**Posted by Gwmayhem** **Online!** 3/06/2026 5:20 pm

Decision #1 for the committee.as #1 seed Belmont, now in the Missouri Valley, falls by 19 to Drake. This wasn't the Drake team of the past 2 seasons. They are 14-19 with today's win.

Belmont is 26-6 with today's loss and should be considered unlikely to make the field. It's sickening that a 26-6 team stays home while an Indiana or Auburn or Texas gets in but that's today's reality. Ten years ago, I believe Belmont would be dancing. Today, it will be quickly pointed out that not only did they lose in their conference tournament but that they were blown out by a 13-19 team at the time. 5-2 in Q2 games with not a single Q1 game played. Imagine who wouldn't want to play a program like Belmont?

**Posted by The Dude** 3/07/2026 12:25 am

VCU picks up a pivotal Quad 1 win at Dayton

Huge boost for their Tourney resume

24-7 with 40ish computer #s they should be dancing

**Posted by The Dude** 3/09/2026 11:29 am

Palm and others still have 31-0 Miami as a 12 seed and out of the tourney if they lose a game

The rigged system taken to its most absurd extreme

16-15 Auburn though on the bubble

The race for the 1 seeds

Top 5 NET: Gonzaga, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, and Duke

Last edited by The Dude (3/09/2026 2:19 pm)

**Posted by The Dude** 3/10/2026 11:29 pm

Gonzaga wins the WCC Title

Their 28th straight Championship Game Appearance for Gonzaga and another Quad 1 win

Maryland beats Oregon

Va Tech loses to Wake a bubble burster perhaps

**Posted by The Dude** 3/11/2026 11:15 pm

Marquette loses in the 1st round of the BE Tourney

20 loss season for Shaka Smart, 12-20

Almost all the Power bubble teams playing tonight lost, bodes well for VCU and assorted non Power 5 deserving resumes