I will define fans as more than just family and friends but not necessarily without restrictions to the general public (i.e. max. of 1,500 per game attendance, as an example)..

I am going to be a bit pessimistic and go with C.  I just have a feeling our school in particular may take a more cautious approach than others, but I think enough schools will want to try and make the season work on time.

G, G, G, GGGGGGGGGG

Surprised no one has chosen it.

I doubt GW has any students on campus this fall.

I'll quote a top epidemiologist at one of the top institutions in the U.S. who is a friend ... "there is no way to protect anyone 100% from contracting the virus. There are ways to slow transmission of the virus hopefully leading to less infections. Until there is a viable therapeutic and/or a vaccine, it's always going to be a question of how to manage the numbers. People will contract the virus, some people will get very sick and some will die. The problem is we can't manage the numbers too strongly indefinitely because the country's infrastructure will collapse and we will cause other health problems. So it's going to be a continual risk/benefit trade-off until we have a cure or a vaccine. People's tolerance for risk varies and there is no magic balance that achieves everyone's desired risk/benefit trade-off. 

GW will have to balance these risks and benefits like everyone else and make a decision in the best interests of most. Contrary to the belief of some, there is no one size fits all approach here or an approach which fully stops transmission. 

I think it will be F, and the likelihood of G happening is much higher than people realize.

Thomas wrote:

I really can't choose one because of recent events, so I'll choose E(games with a limited number of fans), with G(sports cancelled until 2021-2022) being a close second. The fact that there is no cure or vaccine for COVID-19, and we are now seeing spikes in several states, I'm not sure how you can have any sort of team sports activity, school/college or events that include a large gathering of people at this point. If a large number of players-students-patrons-fans test positive, you'll be forced to shut down everything again. Wearing face masks and social distancing can work in certain businesses where people come and go and you can limit the number of people who enter, but I don't think this can be done in schools, sporting events, concerts, etc. that require large groups of people being in a close space. So, unless the social distancing-masks-staying home can cause the coronavirus to go doormat for an extended period of time(which looks bleak at the moment), or we find a cure/vaccine, I don't see how GW can have a basketball season or even a fall semester.

Gwmayem,  I'm kind of disappointed in Bill Maher for taking the 'Coronavirus Is No Big Deal, Stop Being Scared, Only Old People And Those With Pre-Existing Health Problems Will Die' approach. There is enough of that GARBAGE from the "other side", Maher should be better than that. 

Thomas, I feel the same way!  

There are opinions on this and then there are facts. There are facts that support both sides which is why this problem is vexing. Maher could absolutely be right or very wrong. Until we know the denominator which is how many people have actually been infected and then the corresponding risk of serious illness and death, we cannot have a reasonable discussion about what is the best thing to do. No one has a very good handle on the denominator including even its magnitude. If we found out for example that over 100 million people had contracted this in the U.S. and the death rate was 0.12%, I think we might have a different view than we do now. No one knows this so it is hard to take anyone's absolutist statements of GARBAGE from one side or the other very seriously.

Last edited by GWRising (6/24/2020 3:20 pm)

Gwmayhem wrote:

GWRising, I don't think that Maher has the right to make the statement in the first place.  Who is he to suggest that younger people go out in the world and take the same risks (death or severe illness) that he's advocating people his own age should avoid? No matter what the percentages may say regarding how less vulnerable a younger person may be, short of proving that a millennial can not die or get extremely ill from this (a notion that has already proven to be false), each and every millennial should decide on their own how they would like to move forward with their lives and what risks they are willing to take or not take.  Maher made it seem like the millennials should feel obligated to go out and stimulate the economy.  Yes, the economy is important, but everyone needs to decide what's best for them.    

I'm no fan of Maher but there is not statistically anywhere near the same risk for those under 40 as for those over 40. Not even close. I don't think it was a reckless statement at all based on current medical understanding. That is not to say that every person under 40 must listen to Bill Maher. But he gave his opinion. He is not in charge of anything. People are free to agree or disagree and conduct themselves accordingly. The interesting thing that no one is addressing is that even though cases are rising in certain states recently, the overall death rate continues to decline largely because the people who are getting it are younger. Perhaps as you said the virus strain is weaker now. But I do respect Maher for this one thing. He is not sitting with plenty of money telling others who are facing eviction or hunger not to worry about the economy. Watch the holier than thou media type narrative change the minute the networks start laying off folks and reducing salaries. I've seen that very thing happen in my industry - people flip real quick. Everyone is all for maximum health restrictions until they have no job and no income. As they say... the shit gets real then.

Last edited by GWRising (6/24/2020 6:15 pm)

22ndandF wrote:

GWRising wrote:

There are opinions on this and then there are facts. There are facts that support both sides which is why this problem is vexing. Maher could absolutely be right or very wrong. Until we know the denominator which is how many people have actually been infected and then the corresponding risk of serious illness and death, we cannot have a reasonable discussion about what is the best thing to do. No one has a very good handle on the denominator including even its magnitude. If we found out for example that over 100 million people had contracted this in the U.S. and the death rate was 0.12%, I think we might have a different view than we do now. No one knows this so it is hard to take anyone's absolutist statements of GARBAGE from one side or the other very seriously.

GWRising, thank you for sharing your thoughts. I may be completely incorrect, but based on tone of your post and the use of capitalization,  feel it might be a challenge to change your mind on the virus, and the politics currently infecting the brains of those questioning medicine and science. 

A few data points/ideas for your consideration.

1. Almost 500,000 dead world-wide, most in the last 4 months, and 25% of which are American;
2. Japan, with about 35% the population of the US, but overall, greater population density, has had less than 1,000 deaths but only about 18,000 cases. They've stopped the spread by social distancing and using masks.  Is the US doing better because we have a death rate that's much lower than Japan's. 
3.  In the US, Americans of African heritage and other minorities are dying at a rate of more than 2 times the rate of white Americans.

So why worry so much about the denominator? Do you think that makes the African American community feel better?  And since were supposed to be talking [GW] basketball (mostly African American players from African American families, many of which have extended family structures), and since African Americans are dying at a two-times greater rate than their white American counterparts, wouldn't it be appropriate for all us basketball fans to focus attention on the simple science associated with mask wearing and start saving some lives?  I like the idea of protecting the lives of the players and their extended families, instead of arguing about denominators.

I feel the most important fact is that a half million people are dead from this virus.  I feel the challenge is to stop the virus from killing more people. I find no comfort in a small death rate if a million people (or more) are going to die. In the not too distant future, we can have a good economy, save lives, unburden the healthcare system, and play, watch and enjoy basketball if everyone would wear a mask.  
 

I am most interested in your use of the word "science". Because you see there is little "science" going on right now. What we have is supposition, conjecture and opinion masquerading as "science". Think of how the "science" has changed in just months from there is no human to human transmission to the biggest risk is from surfaces to the biggest risk is from airborne transmission. The only thing we have are statistics and unfortunately very incomplete ones at that upon which to base incredibly important decisions on peoples lives. Can you show me a study that demonstrates that a mask is 100% effective at stopping transmission? 80% effective? 50% effective? 25% effective? I'll wait. And just so you know, I wear one everywhere out of the house. Why? Because in the absence of information, I will default to the most conservative approach - that's the way I am wired. So I'm not against masks just asking where the science is and understanding why there is skepticism at this point. 

You also ask why the denominator matters. The denominator matters in everything we do. We would not fly in a plane if the risk were 1/4 that it would crash. We would not drive a car if the risk were 1/8 we would die within a year. We even do this with the risk of contracting the flu and other viruses in deciding on vaccinations.We implicitly or explicitly do a risk/benefit analysis for all sorts of things in everyday life. We base many perhaps most life choices on this trade-off.

So when we are talking about potentially sending millions into poverty or hunger from a prolonged economic shutdown (of course this will also disproportionately affect minorities), we sure better figure out the risks and benefits of doing so for the entire population. But it is not just economic. We seem to have forgotten that COVID-19 is not the only health risk we face. Children are going without vaccinations, much needed medical care and treatment is being postponed or foregone. Depression and drugs? Yes, those too. These health impacts disproportionately affect people of color as well.

So while you are busy focusing on saving some lives you wish to protect from COVID-19 you are implicitly killing other lives you wish to protect from other causes. Science is never simple or neat. Science doesn't yield perfect outcomes. But before you can make decisions about better outcomes (notice I said better not good because there are no good outcomes here that's why it is called a pandemic), you need data. Data that we don't have nearly enough of to make sound considered choices here. Hopefully, that data is coming.

But the denominator will drive the willingness of people to accept economic shut downs, masks, social distancing, etc. And the denominator will drive whether we play basketball this season. The question will be unless COVID-19 is gone, are the risks outweighed by the benefits of playing. If the risk is that you have the same or less chance of being hospitalized or dying than the flu or other viruses, what would be the basis for treating this differently?  

To me, we need to random sample test for antibodies throughout the population. Think of it like political polling. Once we get a true infection rate within a margin of error, we can figure a related risk rate and then decide whether the benefits of all the things I mentioned are worth it. You can moralize all day about what the value of life is but we all know that we expose ourselves to all sorts of risks everyday in the interests of a functioning and free society. 





 

Last edited by GWRising (6/24/2020 10:55 pm)