Just a guess, but I’m thinking we open in the +10-12 range

Last edited by Alum1 (11/04/2025 8:56 am)

Tovak projects an 80-79 GW victory and gives us a 53% chance of winning.  KenPom gives us a 58% chance of winning and projects a 79-77 win.   Last time I saw GW at Mohegan Sun we lost by about 200 to South Carolina.   The game is listed as being on Peacock.   Hope it is also on ESPN plus.

I'll be there and we're planning a live GW Basketball Insiders show afterwards. Not really sure what to expect from Mohegan Sun but a win over a good USF team would be huge.

ColonialNY wrote:

Anyone planning to attend in person? Wondering how many GW fans will be there. 

I'll be there with 3 others.

PKGW wrote:

This is probably an understatement but we need to get our 3 point shooting improved ASAP or Castro Will continue to struggle. Even Maine figured it out, going to zone to limit our ability to drive.

The Maine zone worked until it didn't.  I reviewed GW's points over the game's final 12 minutes or so and they were practically all in the paint or at the line.  One Bubu midrange basket and very few threes taken down the stretch.  This works against teams with inferior athletes like Maine and a number of our OOC opponents.  Will be much harder to pull off against a South Florida.

This GW team will be at its best when the offense is good enough to keep defenses honest.  In other words, GW will have to be able to make defenses pay from 3 if the defense is practically inviting them to take them.  Or, GW must get into the paint with as much of a chance of scoring as kicking the ball back out for a three. 

Class 'o 70 wrote:

If you are an Amazon member you can get a 7 day free trial of Peacock........

Thank you.  Any idea how we get the free trial?

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

Class 'o 70 wrote:

If you are an Amazon member you can get a 7 day free trial of Peacock........

Thank you. Any idea how we get the free trial?

This worked for me: 

You need an Amazon account (Prime membership is not mandatory). Then, visit the Peacock subscription page on Prime Video, select the "Start your 7-day free trial" option, and after the trial ends, the subscription will cost $16.99 per month for the ad-free plan. Your subscription will be linked to your Amazon account, giving you access whenever you log into Prime Video. All that's left to do is to CANCEL the subscription (also going through the subscription page) before the  7 days are up. 

This has worked for me-- so far.

Last edited by xAC (11/06/2025 8:31 am)

South Florida Bulls

Date: Saturday November 8th, 2025
Time: 1:30 PM ET
Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena (Uncasville, CT) (Part of Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off)
TV: Peacock
Ranks: 97th (KenPom), 64th (Bart Torvik), 87th (Haslametrics), 62nd (EvanMiya), 73rd (Sports Illustrated)
2024-25 Record: 13-19, 6-12 (T-9th in American)
2025-26 Projected Record: 17-12, 10-8 (4th in American)

Head-to-Head: 5-1. GW took the last matchup 68-67 in a thriller back in the 2016-17 season on a game-winning three from Collin Smith. The Bulls went into halftime with a three point lead, and the game stayed within seven points the rest of the way. Bo Zeigler came off the bench for USF and had four points/six rebounds before transferring to GW for his final year. For the game, South Florida shot the ball extremely well - 54% from the field, 47% from deep, but the difference was the fact that they attempted just 4 FTs all game. GW struggled from inside the arc (they actually shot worse from 2 than 3 in the game) but made 39% of shots from deep to stay within distance. Had they not missed 10 of 27 FT attempts, perhaps the game would have been won a bit more comfortably. Smith led all scorers with 22 points/8 rebounds/4 steals, while Tyler Cavanaugh had 16 points. He weirdly went 2/10 from 3 on a night where GW shot the ball well from distance.




Offensive Efficiency: 100th (KenPom), 54th (Bart Torvik), 72nd (Haslametrics), 68th (EvanMiya)
Defensive Efficiency: 99th (KenPom), 97th (Bart Torvik), 89th (Haslametrics), 55th (EvanMiya)
Pace: 33rd (KenPom), 14th (Bart Torvik), 66th (Haslametrics), 40th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 182nd (Arkansas State was 79th)
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 169th (Arkansas State was 142nd)
Rim & 3 Rate: 83% (170th) (Arkansas State was at 91%, good for 15th) - expect an uptick in analytic ball

Strengths (2024-25 Season):
Fastbreak Points: 15.34 PPG (8th; 2nd in Amer) (Arkansas State was 86th)
Bench Points Per Game: 27.5 PPG (34th; 2nd in Amer) 
Steals Per Game: 8.3 SPG (40th; 2nd in Amer)
Turnover Margin: +2.1 TO/G (58th; 2nd in Amer) (Arkansas State was 80th)
Turnovers Forced Per Game: 13.16 TO/G (76th; 3rd in Amer)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.3 AST/TO (97th; 4th in Amer) (Arkansas State was 66th)

Weaknesses (2024-25 Season):
Winning Percentage: 40.6% (268th; 9th in Amer)
Three Point Percentage: 31.8% (293rd; 10th in Amer)
Rebound Margin: -3.5 RPG (317th; 12th in Amer) -> Expect USF to have one of, if not the biggest improvement here in the country

Projected Starting Lineup:
#11 G CJ Brown (Sophomore; Marietta, GA) - 7.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.2 spg; 46% FG, 26% 3-PT, 76% FT per 22.6 mpg at South Florida last season
#2 G Wes Enis (Junior; Conover, OH) - 20.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.2 spg; 45% FG, 41% 3-PT, 85% FT per 35.8 mpg/31 GP at D2 Lincoln Memorial last season
#5 G Joseph Pinion (Senior; Morrilton, AR) - 12 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.2 spg; 43% FG, 36% 3-PT, 89% FT per 25.8 mpg/36 GP at Arkansas State last season
#7 F Caleb Sanders (Freshman; Tampa, FL)
#35 F Izaiyah Nelson (Senior; Marietta, GA) - 10.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.3 bpg; 59% FG, 7% 3-PT, 73% FT per 24.1 mpg/31 GP at Arkansas State last season

Key Bench Players:
#8 G Josh Omojafo (Senior; Hamilton, Canada) - 11.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.4 apg; 44% FG, 38% 3-PT, 81% FT per 30 mpg/34 GP at Robert Morris last season
#3 F Isaiah Jones (Senior; Nashville, TN) - 6.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.3 spg; 44% FG, 33% 3-PT, 67% FT per 25.4 mpg/28 GP at Oakland last season
#0 G Xavier Brown (Senior; Williamsburg, VA) - 10.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.4 spg; 38% FG, 35% 3-PT, 69% FT per 29.1 mpg/32 GP at James Madison last season
#6 F Daimion Collins (RS Senior; Atlanta, TX) - 8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.6 bpg; 58% FG, 21% 3-PT, 61% FT per 20.4 mpg/30 GP at LSU last season
#4 G Devin Haid (Senior; Wooster, OH) - 14.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.6 spg; 49% FG, 32% 3-PT, 85% FT per 27.5 mpg/32 GP at Central Connecticut State last season

Key Losses:
Jayden Reid (Transferred to Northwestern; Westbury, NY) - 12.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.8 apg; 39% FG, 36% 3-PT, 79% FT per 29.1 mpg/31 GP
Jamille Reynolds (Graduated; St. Petersburg, FL) - 12.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.6 bpg; 53% FG, 15% 3-PT, 69% FT per 26.2 mpg/29 GP
Kobe Knox (Transferred to South Carolina; Tampa, FL) - 10.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.1 spg; 46% FG, 33% 3-PT, 77% FT per 28.6 mpg/30 GP
Brandon Stroud (Graduated; Atlanta, GA) - 8.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2 apg, 1.6 spg; 44% FG, 23% 3-PT, 61% FT per 23.8 mpg/31 GP
Jimmie Williams (Transferred to Duquesne; Solon, OH) - 7.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.2 spg; 46% FG, 40% 3-PT, 75% FT per 18.3 mpg/30 GP
Kasen Jennings (Transferred to Appalachian State; Atlanta, GA) - 7.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.8 apg; 37% FG, 32% 3-PT, 72% FT per 24.6 mpg/31 GP
Quincy Ademokoya (Graduated; Bloomington, IL) - 6.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg; 39% FG, 32% 3-PT, 77% FT per 20.8 mpg/32 GP

Preview:
There's no easy way to start this one. A little over a year ago, South Florida entered the 2024-25 season with a whole lot of momentum and optimism. The Bulls were coming off a 25-8 record under coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, including 16 wins in the American. Both totals were the most in program history - not even seen during the days USF was in the Big East, CUSA, or Sun Belt. Prior to AAR's arrival, the Bulls had not even hit .500 in their ten years as members of their current conference.

Abdur-Rahim was no stranger to rebuilds. He took over a struggling Kennesaw State program back in 2019-20 and notched just one win in his first year, going winless in A-Sun play. That win total grew to 5 and 13 before the Owls won 26 games in year #4, the year the program made its first ever NCAA tournament game and really made Xavier sweat it out in the first round game. Credit KSU's athletic department for sticking with AAR, as the middle of his tenure was also impacted by COVID. Clearly the players loved going to battle for him (including Brandon Stroud, Kasen Jennings, and Quincy Ademokoya who helped build KSU and followed AAR to USF), as roster continuity remained strong even despite a number of tough years.

Not even two weeks before the start of the season, the South Florida community received shocking news. Abdur-Rahim was undergoing a medical procedure related to an undisclosed illness. What seemed like a routine procedure went sideways, and Abdur-Rahim suddenly passed away from complications that arose during the procedure. I can't imagine what his family went/is going through, as well as the team. By all accounts, AAR was one of the rising stars in the coaching world, and in general just very well liked. It was great to see South Florida and Kennesaw State agree to a home-and-home to celebrate Abdur Rahim's life and legacy, as well as USF naming their student section in their basketball arena after him. Those are the kind of things that make college basketball and in general college sports so great.

An event like that can serve as motivation for a team, but it is also mentally and emotionally taxing. Ultimately, I am not sure you can really blame anyone involved that USF went 13-19 (6-12) last year under interim HC Ben Fletcher, who also had to scramble to rally the troops in a short turnaround before the start of the season. The Bulls played a fun style that pushed the ball in transition, generated perimeter pressure defensively, and went deep into their bench. Jayden Reid was often the catalyst on both ends of the ball (ranked top 100 nationally in steals), building off an all-rookie team selection to turn in a solid year. He's not a big guy at 5'10", 160 lbs but more than makes up for it with his effort level. Jamille Reynolds was a solid partner for Reid up front. If Gray of Maine is "Mr. America East", Reynolds probably holds the title of "Mr. American" as he played for three different AAC squads (UCF and Temple in addition to USF). He also suited up for Cincinnati, but I guess he didn't get the memo that the Bearcats had moved over to the Big 12 from the American at that point. He was the enforcer on both sides of the ball and a double-double threat every night, ranking top five in the conference in blocks per game (61st nationally), defensive rebounds per game (51st nationally), and rebounds per game (86th nationally). We will also be seeing Jimmie Williams, who provided strong shooting for the Bulls, later in the year at Duquesne.

Of course, those guys are gone now as a new era begins in Tampa. Bryan Hodgson, an up-and-comer himself, takes over following two stellar years at Arkansas State where he went a combined 45-28 and 24-12 in Sun Belt play. It was ASU's first 20 win season since 2016-17, when Grant McCasland was at the helm (he's now at Texas Tech for good reason). Outside of not making the tournament during the two years (the top of the Sun Belt is sneaky good), Hodgson did a lot of great things. The Red Wolves were nationally good with regards to field goal percentage defense (25th) and just as importantly they dominated the glass on both sides - 24th in defensive rebounds per game, 18th in offensive rebounds per game, and 7th overall in rebounds per game. As you would expect from a coach that comes from the Nate Oats tree, three point shooting is emphasized on offense, as ASU took the 17th most threes in the country. Expect USF to continue to play uptempo, probably even more than the last couple years. Incredibly, the fast pace didn't hurt Hodgson's bunch when it comes to ball security, as they were 58th in turnovers per game. If Tricky's dad doesn't have a good year at Syracuse, Hodgson may be coming for Autry's job next year (he's an upstate NY native).

To ease with the transition, Hodgson brought over Joseph Pinion and Izaiyah Nelson with him from Jonesboro. While the word "pinion" refers to a part of the wing of a bird, you will frequently see the player Pinion launching from distance along the wing of the basketball court. Last year, he ranked 62nd nationally in three point attempts (over 70% of attempts from deep), and converted them at a 36% rate. The former 3-star prospect played AAU ball with the Arkansas Hawks and was teammates with former GW player Jabari West before committing to play at Arkansas. He also assists on the boards.

Nelson, who originally committed to Arkansas State under a previous coach, was a major reason the Red Wolves were so successful on the glass last year. He dominated the boards on both sides of the ball, ranking top 70 nationally and top four in the Sun Belt in pretty much every rebounding category. Nelson provides some interior rim protection and is also very efficient inside the paint. He has had 13 double-doubles in his career, but isn't a stretch forward - just 6/36 from three in his career.

There's also a bit of team continuity at USF as well as CJ Brown and De'Ante Green opted to remain in Tampa this year. Brown, who hails from the same hometown as Nelson (Marietta, GA) was a 23 game starter last season and is more of a penetrating guard than a shooter. He was a good on-ball defender and did a great job handling the ball (2.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio) when Reid wasn't conducting the offense. He will be pushed by Hodgson's players for playing time. Green meanwhile was a great interior presence last year after spending two years at Florida State. He is a good rebounder, and for a 6'10" big did a great job at the FT line (nearly 80%). Unfortunately, Green went down with a foot injury in a late January contest against Rice and it's uncertain currently whether he can return this season from injury. If he can, that's a major boost to Hodgson's frontline.

Either way, USF should be in good hands down low with the addition of Daimion Collins, a big who earned legitimate minutes in the SEC (even if LSU wasn't one of the better teams). Collins is a big-time shot swatter, ranking 66th nationally (5th in the SEC) in blocks per game. He will ensure that Hodgson's elite field goal percentage defense carries over to this year. Like Nelson, he's not much of a stretch threat (just 7/34 from 3 last year) but will certainly be a presence on the boards. I am not sure how many post-up opportunities he will have in this offense but he is a nice weapon to throw it down low when you need an easy basket. Collins began his career playing for Calipari at Kentucky, so you know the talent is there.

Joining Brown and Pinion in the backcourt are Wes Enis (D2 LMU), Devin Haid (CCSU), and Xavier Brown (JMU). Enis was a star and D2 All-American selection at Lincoln Memorial, a team that went 25-6 last year. He led the team in scoring (their second leading scorer is now at Auburn) and was also top three on the team in rebounds, assists, and steals while shooting 41% from three (26th nationally in D2) with 99 makes on the season. He will likely be a big part of what South Florida does offensively.

Haid, an Ohio native like Enis, played on one of the best Central Connecticut squads in over a decade. He brings veteran experience at 26 years old, having graduated HS back in 2017. He originally didn't have committable college offers out of HS, and was actually stocking shelves at Walmart before getting a shot at Cuyahoga CC (and D2 Notre Dame College after that). Haid is certainly a good fit for Hodgson given his effort on the boards and will be crucial in late game situations with his FT shooting (85% - 82nd nationally). He also led the Blue Devils in steals last year.

Brown will likely see some on-ball reps with the incumbent Brown, as he had an assist to turnover ratio of over 2 last year at James Madison. He also led his team in steals (sensing a theme here) while knocking down threes at a 35% clip. The Williamsburg native is not super efficient inside the arc and prefers to shoot jumpers - his overall field goal percentage has been under 40 the last two years.

Hodgson clearly sees the benefits of bringing in experienced transfers, as all the new non-freshmen outside of Enis are seniors. Horizon league imports Josh Omojafo (Robert Morris) and Isaiah Jones (Oakland) round out the transfer crop. Omojafo, who began his career in the D2 ranks (Gannon), averaged double figures for an RMU team that made the NCAA tournament and played well in their matchup against Alabama. He scored 12 points in that contest, and Hodgson likely saw how Omojafo could fit going up against a scheme similar to his own. He's not a high volume three point shooter, but is accurate (38%) and was a solid FT shooter as well (81%).

Jones had an okay year for Kampe's squad. He averaged nearly five boards a game, which again will play in a Hodgson system and was a good defender. He has steadily improved from his early days at Detroit Mercy. With Omojafo being a native of Canada like Bubu and Jones hailing from Nashville (same hometown as Woo), those two matchups will be interesting to watch.

With all the transfer talent coming in, it's hard to see the freshmen playing too much but USF does have a good class coming in. The five-man class includes Adriel Nyorha, Gavin Hightower, Tristan Beckford, Caleb Sanders, and Onyx Nnani. Nyorha, a three star guard, originally committed to Hodgson at ASU and followed him to Tampa. Hightower, who hails from Los Angeles, is a top-200 prospect per 247Sports who originally pledged to Iona but ended up at USF following the firing of Tobin Anderson, who is now on staff for the Bulls. I just want to say that it was ridiculous for Iona to fire someone who showed progress and made the MAAC championship game (what more can you expect at that level, even if Iona has had a lot of historical success?) but I'm sure Anderson will find another HC opportunity at some point. Beckford was a versatile wing for Fort Erie (same school as Promis) and showed two-way ability. Sanders is a local product for USF who averaged a double-double (12.6 ppg, 10.6 rpg) in his senior year of HS. He actually started over Collins in their opener against Florida A&M and may end up being the most impactful of the freshmen. Nnani is the third Canadian freshman on the roster (along with Nyorha and Beckford) who put up 14 ppg and 8 rpg in his final year of HS.

How well GW fares in this one could very well be decided by rebound margin. The Revs dominated there against Maine, but USF is in a different galaxy. While GW is unlikely to win that battle, it cannot be overwhelmingly in South Florida's favor on both ends. This would certainly be a good game for water to find its level when it comes to three point shooting, as USF has enough threats of their own on that front. It would also help if GW can limit the turnovers on offense. I agree with FQ that USF seems undervalued (particularly from KenPom) coming into the year. They seem like the favorites in the American, with comparable talent to Memphis. Hodgson seems more likely to overperform than Penny so I feel like that would give them the edge. Hopefully CJ has a good game playing in front of family. A Trey Moss revenge game would also be cool, but probably unlikely.

Projected Score: GW 79, USF 77. 58% chance to win (KenPom). Bart Torvik gives us a 53% chance at a victory. ESPN predicts a 59.9% victory.
 

xAC wrote:

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

Class 'o 70 wrote:

If you are an Amazon member you can get a 7 day free trial of Peacock........

Thank you. Any idea how we get the free trial?

This worked for me: 

You need an Amazon account (Prime membership is not mandatory). Then, visit the Peacock subscription page on Prime Video, select the "Start your 7-day free trial" option, and after the trial ends, the subscription will cost $16.99 per month for the ad-free plan. Your subscription will be linked to your Amazon account, giving you access whenever you log into Prime Video. All that's left to do is to CANCEL the subscription (also going through the subscription page) before the  7 days are up. 

This has worked for me-- so far.

Thank you but I am still experiencing angst.  I signed up for the 7 day Peacock subscription on Prine, but when I look  for the game itself, I am not seeing it.  The only Saturday college basketball game I am seeing is Alcott State vs Minnesota at 12 noon