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2/13/2020 7:30 pm  #1


Richmond NCAA Tourney?

What do you make of the Richmond NCAA Tourney chances?

They've really soared, 18-6, KenPom of 57

 

2/13/2020 9:08 pm  #2


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

Right now not so great because the great wins just aren't there. To me, they look like an NCAA team, but they just didn't have enough big teams on their OOC schedule. St. Francis (PA), South Alabama, Charleston are all good teams in their conferences but they don't figure to be more than just decent wins. I would say all three have underperformed based on preseason expectations this year. ODU win would mean more in most years but they are having their worst season in a while (just mediocre). Auburn and even Alabama would have been real resume boosters. Radford isn't a bad team in the Big South but they aren't even the best team there (Winthrop) so that loss isn't great. Wisconsin win is decent but they aren't more than a middling team in the Big Ten. 

The Dayton and VCU games would have definitely put them over the top, but they dropped both. Their next game, a rematch against their crosstown rival, is their best remaining opportunity (until the conference tournament) and I'm not sure it means as much after the Rams lost to GMU. If they win that and continue to pile up wins the rest of the year they will definitely be in the conversation. A loss along the way will put them solidly in NIT territory. 

VCU losing to Mason was bad for the league. It was good for Paulsen and pretty much no one else. The LSU win is what they are hanging their hat on because otherwise they haven't been great. Evans just hasn't fully recovered from injury last year, and him going 0-7 last night didn't come at an ideal time.

 

2/13/2020 11:59 pm  #3


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

And yet their computer #s look pretty good and the committee did put in a few teams with really good resumes otherwise lacking in big wins in recent years.

Shall be interesting to see!  

I'm thinking Rhode Island looks pretty safely in and VCU is right on the bubble?

     Thread Starter
 

2/14/2020 10:01 am  #4


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

Included in Richmond's 18-6 record is a 15-1 record in Quadrant 3 and 4 games.  They are 2-4 in Q1 games and 1-1 in Q2 games.  Playing 2/3 of your schedule against Q3 and Q4 opponents will not help (though they still have some important matchups left, most notably at home against VCU and Davidson and on the road against SBU and Duquesne).  Their best wins are against Wisconsin on a neutral court and at URI.  Rhody is just 1-4 in Q1 games but make up for this with a 5-1 record in Q2 games.  Depending on who the remaining wins and losses are against, it will likely take around 23-24 wins including A10 tournament games to get an at-large.

VCU is just 3-6 in Q1 and 2 games.  The Mason loss was their first of the year that wasn't a Q1 or Q2 loss.  They would need to play their way out at this point but they still have games left at Richmond, St. Louis and Davidson, plus home games against Dayton and Duquesne.  

There is a tendency to look at these resumes and boot more teams out rather than keep more teams in.  Filling up a 68 school field involves including a few schools whose resumes leave people shaking their heads (am pretty sure, without looking it up, that Georgia, Indiana and Texas have had 14 loss teams which received at large bids within the past decade or so). 

 

2/14/2020 11:36 am  #5


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

I tend to think we'll end up with three bids only if someone upsets Dayton & URI.  With the emphasis on the NET rating, VCU and Richmond (right now) just don't look the part.

Interestingly, if NET didn't exist and RPI were still a key indicator, it would be a completely different conversation.  Current RPI:

4  Dayton
15  URI
35  Richmond
45  VCU
48 St. Louis

Plus St. Bona (64) and Duquesne (76).

In that scenario, I see 3 bids for sure, with URI a top 6 seed.

Last edited by BGF (2/14/2020 11:36 am)

 

2/14/2020 3:48 pm  #6


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

Wow, that is a gaudy #15 for URI!

     Thread Starter
 

2/14/2020 4:25 pm  #7


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

Really helps illustrate why the RPI is such an unnecessary and at times, misleading tool.  Their current NET stands at 34.  With a record of 1-4 in Quadrant 1 games, they are nowhere near one of the 15 best teams in the country (if that's what the NCAA wanted us to believe the RPI was intended to represent).

 

2/14/2020 4:48 pm  #8


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

URI having a great year

SLU is much lower in KenPom, but Richmond does fare well in computer metrics across the board.
 

     Thread Starter
 

2/15/2020 5:23 pm  #9


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

Absolutely whooping on VCU today.  Richmond is on their way...

     Thread Starter
 

2/23/2020 6:05 pm  #10


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

Can Richmond land an at Large bid?

20-7, top 50 KenPom

 

     Thread Starter
 

2/23/2020 10:25 pm  #11


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

A thread on this topic was already created recently. Let's please try to avoid duplicate threads on topics unless threads are becoming too long. Thanks! Will close this one.

To answer your question, it definitely looks a lot better than what I said a week ago. Wisconsin looking better (and winning four games in a row) has only helped - similar to Rhode Island benefiting from Providence's improvement during conference play. They can't afford to lose to a team like us though so they need to keep the winning going. If they can do that up until the end of conference season, they should be fine and not need a win in the A10 tournament. As Al Davis always said "Just win, baby!"
 

 

2/24/2020 1:16 am  #12


Re: Richmond NCAA Tourney?

Can Richmond land an at Large bid?

20-7, top 50 KenPom

     Thread Starter
 

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