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7/24/2019 11:29 pm  #1


2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

Thanks to BGF for setting up the new Board, and to Herve for many years of running the prior Board.
While it is early, with all the changes that have taken place, thought it would be interesting to look at the expected starting 5 and rotation for Nov 2019.

What do you see as the most likely starting 5? and what kind of rotation do you see beyond those 5?
 

 

7/25/2019 9:06 am  #2


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

I think GW has 4 guys locked in as starters:  
PG - Mazulla/  SG - Jack/  PF,C - Javy/  PF,C - Toro  I'm not sure whether Javy or Toro would be the C

As for the 5th starter, Amir Harris would have to be the 5th starter at SF, if he's eligible this year. A guy with Harris' skill set needs to get all the minutes he can handle. If Harris is not eligible, Mezie at SF or Potter in a 3-guard lineup as the 5th starter. I'd give Potter the slight edge over Jameer Nelson Jr. because of experience, but it looks like J.Nelson can give GW good production at both guard spots off the bench. My high expectations for Mezie is that he will make a sophomore leap and earn big minutes. Justin Williams will also provide great production off the bench,
 

 

7/25/2019 9:57 am  #3


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

Not your answer, but just some random thoughts:

The only starters I am confident in are Maceo at SG and Toro in the middle.  Throw in Harris at G if the NCAA clears him.  Beyond that, Mazzulla is likely, but not a done deal IMO if Harris is playing.

Does JC want to play tall and start Paar and bring Javi off the bench for solid relief in the middle?

Is Jameer's grasp of the offensive and defensive schemes strong enough (at least at the beginning of the season) to get starting minutes in an offensively challenged team?

Mezzie was a turnover machine last year when tried to play guard with his frame.  Will he play within himself or has he honed his skills?

Armel will be a fifth year senior.  Is he going to finally put it all together (3FG & FT%) and produce a worthy season?

Assuming Justin Williams does what he's great at:  Provide reliable spark and energy (and occasional significant production) off the bench.  Battle will get some PT, but IMO he needs a year in the weight room to earn big minutes.  Mitola will play if he can continue to sink his threes.  He's kinda snuck into a solid role player as an upperclassman walk-on and I'm sure will get the call if we need some instant offense.  I really didn't see much from Walker in Kenner, but he may be better off sitting out this season so he's ready when Armel, Mazzulla and Maceo are gone from the roster in a couple of years.

Last edited by BM (7/25/2019 10:02 am)

 

7/25/2019 11:37 am  #4


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

Agree with BM. Maceo and Arnaldo are the only sure locks to start on the current team, and with Arnaldo I'm not sure if it's necessarily the best thing to have him play heavy minutes returning from injury, especially earlier on in the season.

From listening to JC's interviews in the past, he seems to be more inclined to play the 5 guys that will maximize the team's success than rather just deferring to seniority as Mojo and ML seemed to deploy. I think part of that comes from what he experienced during his playing career. Even though he never shot the ball particularly well, JC averaged 11 ppg in his sophomore year and 8 ppg in his junior year. During his senior year, there was a change of head coaches at Mount St. Mary's, with Milan Brown replacing longtime head coach Jim Phelan (who coached MSM for 49 years from 1954-2003, he is currently 90 years old!). In his final year of eligibility, JC only appeared in 11 games and hardly saw the floor. In other words, despite being productive in previous seasons and having seniority, Brown opted to play some of the younger guys a bit more, probably partly because they were guys that he recruited.

Granted, Jalen Pickett starting for Siena last year right away as a freshman partly had to do with so many players leaving (I think they lost their top 7 players from the previous year) so he had to start by default (and it helped that he had the talent to contribute right away). Who knows, maybe JC will start to value seniority once he has a team full of his guys (and it's easy to forget that this year's team will have players who were recruited under three different coaches - Arnaldo, Juice, and Adam had committed to play for ML originally). This year, I would not be surprised to see a freshman starting if they do enough in practice, honestly because of the players remaining from last year's team, no one really stood out apart from Maceo.

All signs point to Maceo potentially leading the team in scoring next season, as long as he takes more time to release his shots from deep. JC wants to take a lot of threes, and that is right in Maceo's wheelhouse. He is just a versatile offensive weapon.

As I said in my year end review of last year's team following the GMU loss, Armel just needs to be confident going into every game. When he was, we saw performances like the season opener against Stony Brook (ended up being his best game), UMass, and GMU where no one was going to stop him from getting to the rim and finishing (he also has a surprisingly consistent floater in the lane). As long as he is not settling for jumpers (his form seemed somewhat unusual) I think that will be good for us. It didn't help that he was also hurt during a stretch of games in OOC play.

I wouldn't be surprised though to see him and Justin serve more as guards who are running the show than really looking for their shot. Not sure how much pick-and-roll they have run in the past, but you can be sure JC is going to do that a lot of the time. I do trust Armel a bit more to handle bringing the ball up the court (he is better with turnovers than Justin) that does warrant starting, but Mazzulla does have better vision passing in the halfcourt (when he was not forcing up shots) and he took on the leadership responsibility of the team last year. They will still have to score somewhat especially to replace the production of DJ and Terry, but I'm hoping to see more depth and a bit of balance from the rest of the team, especially with the bench stepping it up a bit more. That will be sure to improve Justin's efficiency so he won't feel like he has to do a lot of the scoring and just distribute more. He was noticeably more aggressive in his sophomore year from his first year, but also began forcing it a bit more as well.

Juice will continue to be a spark plug off the bench as mentioned. His three point shooting the last few games of the season was a pleasant surprise (he averaged over 11 ppg in his last four games). Regardless of who the coach was going to be, his role has been carved out. I think he can be a consistent 5-7 ppg for us as long as he gets the playing time which I think he will.

Javier was surprisingly good at altering shots down low despite not being a vertically explosive player, and I think that was under appreciated at times. He committed his share of fouls, but the bigger problem from him came on the offensive end. He shot under 40% from the field which is bad for a big man. His stroke looks good, but it just hasn't translated to made shots for some reason. Down low, he needs to be better with going up with it. I'm sure JC will give him the chance to take some threes, but he needs to show he can knock those shots down which he hasn't as of yet. He did the right thing by spending a lot more time down low in his second year, but we may seem him spend a bit more time along the perimeter again here and there like in his first year. The thing I like about him is that he is willing to learn, and his growth was very noticeable when he got the opportunity last year. Imagine had Arnaldo not been hurt last year, we may have never seen Javier get a chance, and he may not have stayed on beyond last year. Amazing how things work out.

If Amir is eligible, he will start. He was a starter during conference play at Nebraska as well, including his game-winning layup against Iowa. He got better as he appeared in more games. His size will be really useful as it will allow JC to be a bit more creative with who he trots out there with Harris on the floor. He didn't attempt a single three at Nebraska which I thought was interesting.

Mezie I don't think has the confidence yet to be a full time starter, but I'll continue to point to his very first collegiate game against Stony Brook where he was a spot starter for DJ (who was suspended for a violation of team rules for one game). He put up 12 points and 6 rebounds against Stony Brook, and at times did not look like a freshman. The talent is definitely there. Despite playing less than either Shandon or Marcus last year, he scored more points than both of them. I think that says a lot. If he can give us something off the bench (something like 2 baskets a game), that will be big for the team.

As for the freshmen, it appears Jameer Nelson Jr may see some playing time sooner than later if his Kenner performance suggests anything. I was of the impression that he still needed another year of playing basketball/developing before he could contribute it any way (he has been playing baseball longer than basketball surprisingly despite his dad of course playing in the NBA) but he could give us some good minutes. Shawn Walker had a great senior year in high school, but he still seems a bit thin and probably needs to add some strength. His athleticism is sure to help. By all accounts, Jamison would fit JC's system really well as one of those guys who is around the perimeter a lot and attempts a lot of threes. Chase I think could very well contend for a starting spot, partly given the thinness of the frontcourt but he might be the highest regarded prospect of the freshman class in terms of talent. 

The only walk-on I could see getting significant minutes is Adam (I don't know much about Miles, but it doesn't hurt to have insurance in the frontcourt should we be in foul trouble). Adam showed he could be a good three point specialist, but was frustratingly mismanaged last year. I trust that JC has a plan in place to actually use him should he get some playing time. Hope Luke gets the opportunity to play, but it's because we are blowing the opposition out and not the other way around!
 

 

7/25/2019 11:42 am  #5


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

Am thinking that Armel may end up turning some heads this season.  A year ago, his slow start was followed by an injury which kept him out of several games.  By the time he returned, Maceo had taken his starting job and for a while, Armel looked like he was still bothered by the injury.  Over his last 8 games of the season, he appeared to play injury-free and it showed.  He shot 50% from the floor in those games (26-52, including 6-14 from 3), and handed out 25 assists while committing 10 turnovers over his final 10 games.  I think Meer begins the year as his understudy but don't be shocked if both end up playing together in certain situations, and if Meer becomes a starter by January.   I see Maceo as a starter but it will be very important that he continues to improves all aspects of his game.  Toro is a starter assuming good health.  Agree about Amir if he's eligible.  Am not convinced about Javy being a starter as I could easily see him backing up Toro.  Pencil Justin M. in if Amir is ineligible; otherwise, he may end being half of the Justin-duo providing energy off of the best.  Mezzie is a logical choice to start due to his size but he is going to have to cut down the turnovers (24 turnovers, 4 blocks and 3 steals is a stat line that will need to radically change in order to earn more minutes).  Hard to assess the incoming freshmen as most, aside from Jameer, are not receiving much opportunities at Kenner from what I can tell.  

 

7/25/2019 1:06 pm  #6


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

Good thoughts everyone.
Anyone know how deep a rotation Jamion typically rolled with at Siena and MSM?  Does he press at all? play with  pace?

     Thread Starter
 

7/25/2019 3:39 pm  #7


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

Javi is a guy who I can see having a huge drop off in playing time given his lack of offensive production. He only played last year because it was out of necessity and its not like he was that great. Javi definitely showed improvement and ended the year strong rebounding wise but I'd be hesitant to completely trust that given the amount of minutes he played to get that total. If he can consistently connect from downtown that would completely change everything, but he is so stiff on offense (and undersized) that without the 3PT shot, he probably is just Toro's backup. 

 

 

7/25/2019 4:01 pm  #8


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

JC likes to go ten deep to start the season and down to eight by tournament time.

 

7/25/2019 4:35 pm  #9


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

GW18 wrote:

Javi is a guy who I can see having a huge drop off in playing time given his lack of offensive production. He only played last year because it was out of necessity and its not like he was that great. Javi definitely showed improvement and ended the year strong rebounding wise but I'd be hesitant to completely trust that given the amount of minutes he played to get that total. If he can consistently connect from downtown that would completely change everything, but he is so stiff on offense (and undersized) that without the 3PT shot, he probably is just Toro's backup. 

 

While I would expect to see Langarica´s mpg go down this season, I actually thought he was someone MoJo could point to as an example of a player showing great improvement as he went from a marginal/walk-on level player in his first season to someone who could legitimately be considered a lower-tier DI substitute last year.

 

7/25/2019 8:28 pm  #10


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

Definitely do not think he will put the 2 upper class bigs in at the same time as starters.  Both have somewhat similar games with limited offensive range.  Now, we may see that they both play down the stretch at the end of games to keep teams honest as a Hi/low post option which may keep the arc more open for the 3 point shooters.

 

7/25/2019 10:44 pm  #11


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

I am surprised at how low expectations are among those posting so far for Jameer Jr.  He’s been as good at Jenner League as any GW freshman in a long time (at least since Kethan and co made an impact there as incoming freshmen).  Granted it’s only one game, but from having him watched him there once, I think Jameer Jr is a starter from day 1.  He’s young but physically strong and has a leadership demeanor on the court, plus we’ve been waiting a few years for a guard with his handle.

If everyone is healthy and eligible (but if) I think we have a clear top 4 - Toro, Jack, Harris, and Jameer.  The 5th spot is up for grabs, unless JC is one of those coaches who wants one of his best players providing spark off the bench.    For that last spot, I would guess Mazzula for defense and toughness, but the lack of shooting might be a problem for him as a starter on this team (especially if Harris isn’t able to space the floor - would be tough to start two wing guys who don’t take and make many threes to stretch the defense).   I don’t see Java starting if Toro is healthy,  Potter, despite those positive moments late last year, seems better suited for a spark off the bench role at this level.   And not sure any of the other freshmen or returnees  will be ready.

 

7/26/2019 9:45 am  #12


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

I think we have been fooled by big Kenner performances in the past, so I would get my heart set on Jameer being a day 1 starter.  My guess is that we are looking at the following:

​My speculation, based on nothing, is that we play a smaller lineup
Potter
Mazzula
​Jack
Harris
Toro

 

 

7/26/2019 12:22 pm  #13


Re: 2019/20 Starting 5 and Rotation

Does anyone else think Potter was hindered by an injury in his early performances?
Later in the year he looked much more of what we expected.  Health/confidence, some combination of that.  I expect bigger things from this season.  
How does Jameer's jumper look?

     Thread Starter
 

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