Want to say thank you to Merrick for the kind words in the Hampton thread. Never expected my previews would be well-received - just very grateful. Now let's go out there Saturday and get that dub!

Coppin State Eagles
Date/Time: Saturday December 5th @ 2:00 PM ET at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC.
TV: ESPN+
Record Last Year: 11-20, 7-9 (7th in MEAC)
Ranks: 327th (KenPom), 291st (Bart Torvik), 324th (CBS)
Projected Record (as of now!): 8-12, 7-6 (5th in MEAC)

Coaching Record: Juan Dixon, 24-72 in three seasons at Coppin State. It has been a steady climb for Dixon, with CSU finishing 7th in their league the past two years after slotting in 11th his inaugural year. The Eagles have increased their win total by three each year Dixon has coached. Prior to coaching, Dixon had a successful career while at College Park, amassing 2,269 points with great shooting stats across the board - 47% from the field, 39% from deep, and 85% from the line. Among his accomplishments included a consensus first-team All-American award the year the Terrapins hoisted their championship trophy. He would go on to enjoy a nine year NBA career, with his 05-06 season with Portland being his most successful - he put together career highs in games played (76), started (42), and points scored (12.3). Dixon also spent several seasons as a special assistant under Turgeon and a year coaching the UDC women's basketball team, so coaching his hometown Eagles isn't his first rodeo.

All Time Record: 2-1, although Coppin came out on top in the most recent meeting nearly 12 years ago, 59-53. Although the two schools (under 40 miles apart) could have taken a simple bus ride to face off against each other, they thought it would be more fun to travel 4000+ miles and play in Honolulu for the first meeting in 22 years. While the team played much better in the second half, it was not enough to erase a 14 point deficit at halftime. Damian Hollis and Noel Wilmore each scored 14 points (the latter knocked down 4 threes) while Travis King added 11 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals. As a team, we shot 4-14 from the line...ouch.

Offensive Efficiency: 342nd (KenPom), 329th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 265th (KenPom), 219th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 33rd (KenPom), 11th (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 36.7% (302nd in country)

Key Returning Players:
Koby Thomas (RS JR; Philadelphia, PA) 13.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg; 47% FG, 19% 3-pt, 59% FT
DeJuan Clayton (RS SR; Bowie, MD) 12 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.6 apg; 41% FG, 26% 3-pt, 71% FT

Key Losses:
Kamar McKnight (Left Team; Toronto, CAN) 15.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.7 spg; 38% FG, 26% 3-pt, 68% FT
Andrew Robinson (Graduated; Takoma Park, MD) 12.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg; 36% FG, 33% 3-pt, 80% FT
Brendan Medley-Bacon (Transferred to VCU; Baltimore, MD) 7.5 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.1 bpg; 46% FG, 58% FT

Comments:
Dixon's Coppin squad made considerable strides in OOC play last season, notching four wins prior to conference play after going an unfathomable 0-30 in his first two seasons. While Cornell and James Madison ended up being among the worst teams in their respective conferences, their two wins against Loyola Chicago on the road by 4 (a favorite in the MVC) and Dooley's East Carolina squad by 10 were fairly impressive. The Eagles also remained competitive against a number of solid mid-major programs, but succumbed to superior opponents, and ultimately faded down the stretch when McKnight exited midseason - leading to a nine game losing streak. They did enter the conference tournament on a high note with three consecutive victories before the 'rona ultimately derailed any hopes of turning that momentum into their first trip to the dance since the 07-08 season.

Like many MEAC squads, the Eagles relied on their speed, drives to the basket, and crashing the hoop given their poor outside shooting and lack of size up front (minus the departed 7'1" Medley-Bacon - more on him next month). Coppin finished the year 12th nationally in pace and third fastest in their conference. Coppin State ran a system not too different from ours last year - they ran heavy PnR offensively and were a fairly strict man-to-man team on defense (they even took half their attempts from three in the Duke game!). While the former was not exactly successful (CSU's offense was quite literally offensive - ranking 346th mostly due to their bricky shooting - second to last in the MEAC) the latter could be considered a success - the Eagles ranked 240th in defensive efficiency, keeping them in most games during conference play (they were 4th best in the MEAC). Since we have fully leaned into playing zone, we might as well keep it up given Coppin has not exactly upgraded in the shooting department (meaning they will go off on us) and while Dixon has found some taller reinforcements inside, they are all very young and inexperienced.

The orchestrator in the pick-and-roll system is veteran DeJuan Clayton (how DeJuan can he be if he decided to play for Juan?), who has started for the team now for three years. The local St. John's (DC) HS product is not a particularly strong outside shooter (26%) but is adept at getting to the rim and shoots a solid 71% from the line. With McKnight departing as the complementary passer in Dixon's system, this is solely Clayton's team to lead in his final year.

Koby Thomas is more of a wing than a true big, but he is definitely a serviceable option as Clayton's roll man. Clayton is Coppin's best returning rebounder and is very good at slashing to the rim. In other words, this is a guy to watch out for who could possibly turn our zone into swiss cheese if we are not attentive. We did do a good job of not fouling much in the Hampton game, but given Thomas is just a 59% free throw shooter, it might be best to engage in some hacking. It appears Thomas has worked on his outside shooting this offseason, knocking down 3 threes against the Blue Devils after making just 10 all of last season.

The only other notable returner from last year's squad is rising sophomore Reggie James, who should get more minutes by default based on the number of defections. James will add more scoring and rebounding in a complementary role - his 53% shooting from the floor and 35% from deep shows great promise despite the 54% free throw shooting. He may end up being one of Coppin's best outside shooters and will get ample attempts in the pick-and-roll system.

Expect the newcomers to play a key role this year for CSU, led by former MoCo standout/NJIT Highlander/UTEP Miner Anthony Tarke and a familiar face, former St. Joe's player Chereef Knox (who failed to score on 5 attempts in 23 minutes off the bench in our game against the Hawks last year). Tarke forms a potent trio along with Clayton and Thomas - he was a consistent double figure scorer in his NJIT days and skilled rebounder, but took a step back at UTEP (arguably one of the biggest disappointments of last season given the talent from transfers they had - unfortunately the pieces seemed to clash and the Miners ended up losing nine total players to transfer and graduation as a result this offseason). Tarke was very impressive in their opener against Duke - he paced the team in points (22), rebounds (9), assists (3), steals (5!), and blocks (2). Knox brings good pedigree to Coppin, although he was more of a depth option for the team in the opener. Kenan Sarvan, who had originally committed to St. Joe's as well I believe out of HS (he was also Shawn's teammate in HS) will likely be their new go-to option down low after posting 10 points and 8 rebounds, albeit on terrible efficiency. Anthony's younger brother Nendah Tarke will also play key minutes right away for the team as a freshman. He showed real potential in the Duke game, knocking down two three pointers and playing decent defense. Further depth will come from sophomore Kyle Cardaci and redshirt freshman Isaiah Gross. Neither made too much of an impact in the first game, with Cardaci playing 20 minutes but taking just 1 shot. Perhaps we may see junior Justin Steers as well, who oddly left Coppin after a year to play in the JUCO ranks only to return to Coppin in year 3. Steers averaged 6 ppg his first year in Baltimore and shot the ball pretty well.

I am just hoping we come out with less tentativeness offensively and bring more energy on defense. At this point, I feel like another loss would not really get me too angry after the early disappointments to Navy and Hampton. I just hope we are working towards something bigger perhaps for conference play after enduring some growing pains for the rest of OOC play.

Predicted Score: GW 76, Coppin State 66 (Haslametrics). Honestly if we win by a closer margin I don't care. I think it will be important to boost morale to get on the board in the W column though. Given Coppin State notched 12 steals in their opener, our turnovers on offense will be something to watch as well. Expect a very fast pace game - we have quietly crept up to almost a top 100 team in pace this season.
 

DMVPiranha, if you could play half as well as you can research and write, I'd be very happy with you on our roster.  (meant as a genuine compliment and not as a back-handed one like it sounds)
 

Chase Paar looked incapable, physically of matching up vs Navy and Hampton, what is he going to look like when the A10 season starts?  It wasn't lack of effort, or things which looked correctable, it was like watching Matt Cimino TBH.  Sloane Seymour hasn't made any 3s but clearly can shoot but he looked even less able to move his feet at this level and neither guy has requisite strength.

Hope I'm wrong but if we want to be a good A10 program we need better talent than that.  Other pieces look like they will get better and better, but some guys (99.8%) of kids playing fairly high level HS basketball can't play at this level, there's no shame in that. Cimino and Goss, that kind of player, we just need better athletes, quicker feet, stronger, more vertical etc etc.  I'm 100% for the Maceo minutes going up and Paar minutes going down.  
As for Moyer he can grab boards and has length, more optimistic there, but again he's a guy with no range who shot 30 and 27% from the field the last two years, as a 4th year Senior wouldn't you expect more from a guy who was a top 60 recruit!  Syracuse recruit who has really struggled across 3 years of Power 5 but I think he can be useful for us. Chase Paar TBH I just don't see it happening, and would love ... LOVE to be wrong, hope I am. Same with Sloane, who we know will hit open 3s, and we could use more of that, at least that's the goal.  



 

Gwmayhem wrote:

DMVPiranha, if you could play half as well as you can research and write, I'd be very happy with you on our roster.  (meant as a genuine compliment and not as a back-handed one like it sounds)
 

I dunno. He said the GW-Coppin St game in Hawai´i was "4000+ miles" from the campuses when in fact a non-stop from BWI to Honolulu covers 4,844 miles or 7,796 kilometers and that exact figure is easy enough to find. Seems like lazy writing to me.
Love the previews but worry that you are putting too much effort in to writing them for the motley crew we have here.
 

GW -9.5 O/U 143 Kenpom: 76-68 good guys

Nice to say Brown getting minutes early.   I think we are better with him on the floor right now.

What an athletic play by JNJ and Bishop!

Offense looking a bit better - but defense still giving wide open looks from 3 on the zone - especially out of the corner. Coppin just hasn't been able to hit them.

The more I see the zone the more I hate it. Leaves the corner open on 100% of positions and we're too slow to close out. Any team with a decent 3-point shooting night will dominate.

As if on cue...