St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Date/Time: Friday February 26th @ 6:00 PM ET at the Reilly Center in Allegany, NY.
TV: ESPN+
Ranks: 41st (KenPom), 52nd (Bart Torvik), 85th (CBS)
Record Last Year: 19-12, 11-7 (T-5th in A10)
Projected Record (as of now!): 14-3, 12-3 (1st in A10)

Coaching Record: Mark Schmidt, 229-180 in 13 seasons at St. Bonaventure. After a rough inaugural season that saw the Bonnies finish in the basement, Schmidt nearly doubled Bona's wins to 15 and has since maintained a level of consistency not seen since the Jim Baron teams of the 90s. While SBU has only had four postseason appearances in his tenure (2 NCAA, 1 NIT, 1 CBI), it is only a matter of time that the number goes up. Bonaventure has finished top 5 in the conference in five straight seasons which is an impressive feat. Of course there will be wide speculation as to whether Schmidt takes over at his alma mater (Boston College) given Jim Christian's recent firing, but I don't know why you would leave a place that has a passionate fanbase and you are experiencing great success at. Schmidt previously spent six seasons at Robert Morris, winning roughly half his games there (if you are looking for positives, JC actually fared better in his tenure at MSM). He also spent time as an assistant at Penn State, Loyola (MD), and Xavier at the D1 level. In high school, Schmidt was a steeplechase runner. 

All Time Record: 35-27, although Bona is currently on a four game winning streak in the series. Last year's road contest at their place was our worst loss (in terms of scoring margin) in the series history. We did play significantly better in the first home game (only losing by 5), partly due to just being healthier (Armel didn't play in game 2). In the 72-47 road loss, JNJ led the way (with 19 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals), while Jamison added 13 points and 3 rebounds. Our bench went 2-12 from the field.

Offensive Efficiency: 49th (KenPom), 49th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 48th (KenPom), 63rd (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 318th (KenPom), 317th (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 80.5% (30th in country)

Key Returning Players:
Kyle Lofton (JR; Hillside, NJ) 14.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 6 apg, 1.4 spg; 42% FG, 34% 3-pt, 81% FT
      Last season @ Bona: 5 points, 3 rebounds, 5 assists; 2-9 FG, 0-2 3-pt, 1-2 FT in 38 minutes.

Jaren Holmes (JR; Romulus, MI) 11.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.2 apg; 45% FG, 40% 3-pt, 75% FT
      Last season @ Bona: 21 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists; 7-14 FG, 3-4 3-pt, 4-6 FT in 31 minutes.

Dominick Welch (JR; Buffalo, NY) 11.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.1 spg; 40% FG, 37% 3-pt, 77% FT
      Last season @ Bona: 11 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals; 4-9 FG, 1-5 3-pt, 2-2 FT in 38 minutes.

Osun Osunniyi (JR; Pleasantville, NJ) 10.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.2 apg, 2.5 bpg; 62% FG, 58% FT
      Last season @ Bona: 16 points, 7 rebounds; 8-11 FG, 0-2 FT in 36 minutes.

Key Losses:
Justin Winston (Transferred to Robert Morris; West Orange, NJ) 8.7 ppg, 3.4 rpg; 44% FG, 33% 3-pt, 77% FT

Comments:
St. Bonaventure met expectations last season, finishing tied for fifth in the conference after being picked fifth in the preseason A10 poll. However, things did not always go smoothly. Osun Osunniyi went down with a right knee injury in the season opener against Ohio, leaving the Bonnies shorthanded up front. SBU would go on to lose four of the first five games of the season with a random win against Rutgers sandwiched in between. Then Osunniyi returned, and Bona won seven of their final eight games OOC which is not a coincidence. Conference play more or less mirrored OOC for Bonaventure. They put together win streaks of four and five, with three consecutive losses lodged in between (with Osunniyi again sidelined for those contests).

This season, Bona was picked fourth in the preseason poll (a bit low if you ask me). When they have taken the court, they have definitely performed like a top team in the conference, if not the top team. Their only losses on the year have come against URI, St. Louis, and VCU (and SLU was the only double digit loss). They paused for COVID at the very start of the season, wiping out the majority of their OOC schedule. The Bonnies have had pretty bad luck with A10 opponents consistently having to cancel their game due to COVID (including us). Glad we were able to reschedule.

St. Bonaventure might have one of the most unusual scholarship charts I've seen around the country. The Bonnies currently have nine scholarship players, and eight of them are juniors (looks like they have some recruiting to do in 2022!). Kyle Lofton has resumed his role directing the offense, leading the team with 15 points per game. Do not expect to see him sub out of the game at all. He has played all 40 minutes eight times this season - quite the iron man. He led the league in assists last year, and is top 5 again this season. Lofton also doubles as Bonaventure's most impactful defender on the other end. One place where he has dropped off a bit is his three point shooting, where he has only shot 22% on the year (for his career, he is closer to the mid 30s).

Joining Lofton on the floor are the junior trio Jaren Holmes, Jalen Adaway, and Dominick Welch. Holmes (formerly English) is a deadly shooter from distance, shooting a team best 46% from 3. He made eight threes against St. Joe's earlier this year. Adaway, a transfer from Miami (OH), is less of a perimeter presence but can finish inside with great efficiency. Welch has made a team high 36 threes at a 41% rate and is perhaps the most complete player of the three. He is a strong defender on the other end. Holmes, Adaway, and Welch are all roughly 6'5", and contribute similarly in the rebounding and passing department. They all average nearly exactly six boards and two assists a game. Bonaventure doesn't play a lot of guys, but part of their success is they get so much out of each of the guys they do put on the floor. These guys can play the 2-4 interchangeably.

The aforementioned invaluable Osunniyi heads the frontcourt, where he averages nearly a double-double with 10 points and 9 rebounds. Like the trio above, he also averages 2 assists per game, so I don't foresee much success double teaming him. Osun also leads the league in blocked shots per game (2.4 bpg). This is going to be a difficult cover for us, as Osunniyi has historically had some of his best games of his career against us. He averages 18 ppg in three career meetings.

When those five are ever found on the bench, expect Alejandro Vásquez, Jalen Shaw, and Eddie Creal to be in the game. Vásquez will likely see the most time of three as a backup PG although his shooting has seen major regression from last season. Shaw (a former JUCO) is Osun's backup when in foul trouble, and has seen success finishing down low on limited attempts. Creal is another former JUCO and yet another player in that 6-4 to 6-5 in height range.

This is going to be tough for a number of reasons. Expect a slow paced game with few substitutions. If we can keep it competitive, that should be considered a success. Second half fatigue is something to monitor.

Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure 77, GW 64. 10% chance to win (Bart Torvik). I would be very surprised if it's that high scoring. ESPN gives us an 8.4% chance to win. Bonaventure is a 14 point home favorite.
 

For some reason I feel good about this game. No pressure. Just go out there and play your game. Everyone expects us to lose. We have talent on this team and if everyone has a good game, we could sneak up on the Bonnie's.
If not today's game, then next weeks 1st round tourney game. No pressure. They will play loose. Would be nice to go into the off season with something to build on.
Good luck Colonials!

Hunter Dean with a steal and coast to coast dunk!
Throw it down big man!

Thought we were watching Tom Chambers for a second there

 

Dean playing well.  Going out now. 

We are doing a good job on the defensive glass and a good job on D (forcing them to shoot deep threes, which they are hitting) but we aren’t getting any open shots at all.   

Need Bishop to look for his shot instead of only to set up teammates. He hasn’t taken a single shot other than desperation at end of shot clock. Clearly the gameplan is to try to get others going early, but we need to call James’ number more right now.

Last edited by Free Quebec (2/26/2021 6:17 pm)

I think Bishop is looking for his shot, but Bonnies know how to play him.

Perhaps we can set a screen to free Jamison from 3 at some point.

I’d say the Bonnies were roughly twice as good as us in the first half.

57,1% from the 3 for the Bonnies.  Yes, they are very hot, but as I have said so many times this year, look at their shot selection and look at our shot selection.  That  is why they are shooting 54.8% for the half and we are shooting 34.8% for the half.

Look at how well they pass the ball around--and how we don't.
Even these numb nuts announcers say about us: we don't "create shots for each other" and need to do so.