American Eagles

Date/Time: Tuesday November 12th @ 7:00 at the Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC.
Record Last Year: 15-15, 9-9 (4th in Patriot)
Preseason Ranks: 199th (KenPom), 174th (Bart Torvik), 188th (Sports Illustrated), 134th (CBS)
Projected Record: 16-13, 10-8 (4th in Patriot)
Postseason Last Year: None.
Coaching Record: Mike Brennan, 78-109 in 6 seasons at American, including an NCAA tournament appearance his first season (2013-14, which also happens to be our last tournament appearance as well).

All Time Record: 18-19, although of late the series has been going our way, as we have won 11 of the past 12 contests. Our last loss against them was during the 2002-03 season at their place 81-75. We have surprisingly only faced them four times this century, one which came last season. In an ugly (to put it nicely) 71-67 overtime victory, four Colonials finished in double figures, led by Justin's 19 points. Mazzulla's tip shot off his own missed layup with 30 seconds left proved to be the game winner. This game was also Javier's breakout, as he put up 15 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 blocks before fouling out. Maceo filled the stat sheet with 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists (the assists sound like a career high). DJ also pitched in with 11 points. 

Although we have only played American four times since 2000, JC has actually faced the Eagles five times since becoming head coach, with all five coming during his Mount St. Mary's tenure. In those five meetings, Jamion has gone 3-2. Both losses came on the road (62-57 in the 2012-13 season, and 46-45 during the 2014-15 season). The three wins were 68-64 at home during the 2013-14 season (one of his NCAA tournament squads), a resounding 81-56 victory in 2015, and most recently 59-56 at their place in 2017. Those results make me think we are in for another close contest tomorrow night.

Offensive Efficiency: 194th (KenPom), 126th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 207th (KenPom), 239th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 314th (KenPom), 266th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Sa'eed Nelson (SR; Pleasantville, NJ) 19.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.2 apg, 2.4 spg; 51% FG, 31% 3-pt, 72% FT
       Last year against us: 7 points, 3 rebounds; 3-10 FG, 0-3 3-pt, 1-4 FT in 26 minutes.

Mark Gasperini (SR; Moscow, RUS) 10.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.3 apg; 50% FG, 14% 3-pt, 58% FT
       Last year against us: 12 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists; 6-16 FG in 29 minutes.

Stacy Beckton Jr. (JR; Daytona Beach, FL) 10 ppg, 4.4 rpg; 50% FG, 36% 3-pt, 73% FT
       Last year against us: 11 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals, 2 blocks; 4-7 FG, 2-3 3-pt, 1-2 FT in 31 minutes.

Key Losses:
Sam Iorio (Transferred to South Alabama; Allentown, PA) 13.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2 apg; 42% FG, 35% 3-pt, 82% FT
Laurynas 'Larry' Motuzis (Graduated; Darien, IL) 6.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg; 47% FG, 32% 3-pt, 65% FT

Comments:
American won more games last year (15) than they did the previous two seasons before that (14). Part of the reason the Eagles were so brutal during those two years had a lot to do with lack of size and rebounding (in addition to poor defense), as the Eagles were consistently getting pounded on the glass. Although the rebounding did improve last season, the reason the Eagles were able to surge to the top half of the Patriot league was the play from the guards in their backcourt. With much of the production returning, American should fare as well as they did last year. This year, the Patriot is Colgate and then everyone else, so the Eagles can definitely play for as high as second place. Bucknell is expected to have a down year with their best player departing for Kentucky. Loyola MD is my sleeper pick, who should make a big jump during Andrew Kostecka's final year. The loss of Sam Iorio might hurt American from getting any higher though. He had 20 points in last year's contest, and is a huge get for Riley's South Alabama squad (between Chad Lott from Howard and now Iorio from American, the Jaguars appear to be the favorites in the years to come in the Sun Belt, especially with Ron Hunter gone from Georgia State).

American's roster nicely represents America as a whole, with players coming from New Jersey, California, Florida, Mississippi, Minnesota, Michigan, Georgia, Colorado, New York, and Oregon (and another from Russia). However, before I get into the player rotations, I have to point out the uncanny resemblance between the names of guys in their backcourt and the players we have. Between Sa'eed Nelson, Jameer Nelson, Jamir Harris, and Amir Harris (if he was eligible) commentators are sure to have trouble distinguishing which guy is on what team. As it is many ESPN commentators struggle with unique names when calling games; they don't need any further confusion!

Nelson is the engine in their offense. He missed the season opener against Siena because of some dumb summer league rules, but returned to play against William & Mary. When he is on his game, he is a triple double threat on any given night. Sa'eed Nelson does a great job of setting up his teammates, where he was among the nation's leaders in assists last year. His high usage did lead to some turnover problems (much like Jameer), so maybe some of the 'Mayhem' will get him to cough the ball up a lot. Nelson struggled against us last year, but it would be hard to expect such a performance again. He will have some help this year with Jamir Harris, a consensus 3-star recruit who comes over from Minnesota (a Big Ten school just like Amir! yet another coincidence). Harris is a great athlete, which is refreshing on an American team which was largely devoid of that in previous years. He is also off to a great start shooting the ball (6/15 from deep) so we will have to keep tabs on where he is on the floor at all times.

Brennan likes to space the floor on offense, so it would be wise to expect four guards to be playing together on the floor more often than not. Stacy Beckton Jr. likely fills one of those spots after basically playing starter minutes off the bench last year. Beckton is more of a 'slasher' than a 'shooter', but his true value comes from his defensive versatility where he is able to generate steals and contest shots. Jacob Boonyasith will probably claim the final guard spot. Boonyasith has second year breakout written all over him. He is already off to a great start shooting the ball, and despite being just 6'3", his 215 lb frame gives him the ability to defend multiple positions on defense. Any remaining minutes in the backcourt will go to sophomore Jack Sorenson and freshman Ben Lubarsky. Neither figures to have an overly large impact in the game unless one of the aforementioned names are in foul trouble.

American's frontcourt consists of Russian senior Mark Gasperini, sophomore Josh Alexander, and JUCO sophomore Connor Nelson (add another Nelson to the confusion!). Gasperini will likely start at the 5, but has struggled shooting the ball to begin the year. While he is more than a capable scorer as the roll man on offense, his true value comes from his defense and passing ability (he was second on the team in assists behind S. Nelson). His ability to pass as a big man allows AU to play through him at times, and he can set up S. Nelson, Harris, Beckton, and Boonyasith for open, high-quality shots. He posted a double-double in our game last year, and hopefully the return of Arnaldo can keep him off the boards this time around. Alexander was second in line last year, and while he is slightly more polished on offense, he struggled defensively and is just not the same kind of passer as Gasperini. He should improve on both aspects going into his second year. So far this season, Alexander's minutes appear to have gone down in favor of C. Nelson, a JUCO from Central Wyoming College. Nelson is more of a wing-type, but is a capable defender down low and he too is off to a great start shooting the ball. Should there be any foul trouble like in the Howard game, Brennan can turn to senior Yilrep Yiljep (awesome name!), 3-star junior from Mississippi Jesse Little (who is not so little at 6'10"), and freshman Kelton Samore, another 3-star recruit from Oregon who figures to see limited time in his first year of college basketball.

One other thing I want to mention about American is their defense. Brennan usually opts to play man-to-man, but more importantly, the Eagles conceded the fewest three point attempts allowed - a testament to their ability to run guards off the three point line (this is consistent to AU teams the past four years, so it is not an outlier). That will make our job considerably harder on offense, given JC's desire to fire from deep. It will be interesting to see whether we go back to AT to begin the game, and whether his dominance down low can open things up along the perimeter, because I don't expect the threes to be there at least early on. American may be 0-2, but this is not a guaranteed win even at home. Hope the crowd comes out again to support tomorrow night. Since we came out victorious last year, I think we pull this one out in a close one.

Predicted Score: GW 74, American 68. 71% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN says we have a 74.4% chance to win. I can't help but think some of that has to do with AU's 0-2 start. I might put it closer to 67%. Let's make it two in a row at home!
 

I was sitting behind the GW bench at that last loss at AU.  Hobbs' second year and the first with Mike/Pops/Omar etc.  Never forget him jumping up and down on his clipboard while yelling "YOU HAVE TO HAVE POISE!!!" and otherwise losing his shit.  Mike Hall looked over to our section with an embarrassed look. 

Thankfully they all improved at their jobs over the next few seasons.

GW is now at over $55,200/yr to attend. AU is under $48,500/yr. The alternating chants from the respective student sections of "We pay more!" that used to make this a real rivalry game may no longer be so pertinent.

GW -4.5

GW game thread on AU board

http://auhoops.proboards.com/thread/1551/game-3-george-washington

It would appear that everyone has the green light to be shooting 3s. I think Mazz and JL could benefit from dialing it back. It will be interesting to see if the shot selection changes after a few more data points.

 

Is Collin Goss no longer on American?

The Dude wrote:

Is Collin Goss no longer on American?

Goss is at Delaware, who we will see in a few weeks. 

Cimino was at American and I think he's graduated by now but was basically the equivalent of a walk-on last year in terms of minutes played.

Am confused about Amir.  Florida Colonial thought he's eligible based on Instagram.  GWRising hears he is not yet eligible.  The Dude is hearing that he is.  The Dude, where are you hearing that Amir is eligible?  GWRising, where are you hearing that he isn't?

Amir’s wearing a polo and khakis so if he’s eligible he’ll still be OUT for tonight’s game