1 of 1- Gwmayhem
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Eight Years Later
In doing some research for this post, I came across this nugget guaranteed to amaze your friends who are into A10 basketball:
Of the 14 current A10 schools, which school has participated in the most NCAA Men's basketball tournaments as a member of the A10?
The answer is The George Washington University with 9.
St. Joe's, Dayton and UMass have all gone 8 times.
VCU and URI reached the dance 7 times as A10 members (amazing for VCU given how long they've been in the conference).
The Bonnies have gone 4 times, twice for the Wildcats, and one appearance apiece for the Dukes and Explorers.
But I digress. What got me thinking about all of this was recalling the day that Temple, Xavier, and Butler each decided to leave the A10. Considering that Temple and Xavier had combined to make 36 appearances at the Dance as A10 members, I don't feel it was outlandish to wonder back then what would become of our conference at the time. Rumors swirled that the Big East was not finished poaching, with both Dayton and St. Louis prominently rumored to defect next.
The first season of A10 ball without any Musketeers, Owls and Bulldogs was in 2013-14 where the A10 emphatically stated "nothing to see here." The A10 wasn't only fine, it was actually better than ever. The cumulative winning percentage of all of it's schools was .588 which has only been exceeded once in conference history courtesy of Marcus Camby and UMASS's near perfect record (and yes, if we turn those wins to losses due to NCAA sanctions, that changes this immensely). It's also worth pointing out that 2013-14 saw 6 member schools (including GW) reach the dance. This was clearly a high mark for the conference, coming off seasons in which it sent 5 teams and 4 teams over the prior two seasons (and this is with Temple and Xavier).
And, here's what the numbers look like since that high performing 2013-14 season:
Year Cumulative Win % # of NCAA Teams
2013-14 .588 6
2014-15 .545 3
2015-16 .562 3
2016-17 .542 3
2017-18 .509 3
2018-19 .509 2
2019-20 .564 No Tournament
2020-21 .515 2
It's important to note that the A10 had 14 schools in each of these seasons, ironically with the exception of 2013-14 when it had 13 (Davidson would join a year later). By contrast, beginning in the 1990's, the conference routinely sent at least 3 schools while often comprised of 12 conference members. By this measure, one would hope that the conference could send 4 out of 14 schools routinely, but this has proven difficult after losing two schools that by themselves accounted for over 30% of all NCAA Tournament appearances from within the conference.
Several things can be concluded:
1) 2013-14 was very much an outlier. The OOC scheduling game was played to perfection that year and this may have resulted in making things very difficult for A10 schools to replicate. (For example, no major program has to play an A10 school.)
2) The last four seasons have seen a noticeable drop in cumulative winning percentage. The exception was 2019-20 aided mightily by Dayton's run. Take that Dayton run away and the A10 has not resembled a Top 8 conference for at least the past four years.
3) Despite the records and NCAA appearances, this could have been much worse. Dayton and/or SLU could have jumped ship. The conference has not sent just 1 team to the Dance since GW in 2004-05, and has only done so four times in its history. The fact that this has not happened since the conference realigned is a major plus in my book.
- Gwmayhem
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Re: Eight Years Later
I guess I really could have asked a question about all of this.
What are your thoughts regarding the state of the A10 (men's basketball)? Is the conference in better, worse or around the same shape as you thought it might be after Temple, Xavier and Butler all left?
Bonus question: do you fear that future conference realignment may end up hurting GW's standing?
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Thread Starter- PKGW
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Re: Eight Years Later
I think dropping to 2 bids is probably right since the departures. 3 on a good year but doubt we will see 4-5 again.
Realignment may help GW ironically since the stronger teams will. Leave the A-10. It may end up being a 1 bid league but GW may have a better chance to be competitive at the time given the limited resources it invests. Would be better than “stepping down” to the Patriot as discussed here in other threads.
- Long Suffering Fan
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Re: Eight Years Later
A few years back, the Atlantic Ten could generally count on a bid going to Temple and Xavier. Further, in any given year, there were other teams on a roll (i.e. URI, St. Joes, Dayton, even GW) and when the dust cleared, we were looking at 3-5 bids. My concern regarding the Atlantic Ten these days is that we no longer have that almost automatic bid (Dayton and VCU are now the cream of the crop), but my biggest concern is that with the change in the transfer rules and the ability of players to now receive marketing money, the A-10 is becoming (if it already hasn't happened) a high minor leagues for the power conference. I fear that the players that we will see in the A-10 are those players who were not able to play in a power conference coming out of HS but have developed to the extent that they will be "called up", or those power conference players who couldn't quite cut it on a top team and are thereby "sent down". Can think of no better example than GW. I ask this in all seriousness...why would any top player choose or stay at GW when they have the opportunity to (1) advance pro prospects by playing in a better conference; (2) earn money by playing in a better conference; and (3) play before large crowds and a national TV audience. The same could probably said for most of the other A-10 teams.
Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (9/26/2021 11:16 am)
- GW0509
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Re: Eight Years Later
Agree LSF which is why getting the coach right is priority #1 for schools at the A10. think it will be very hard for any coach in the A-10 to keep an entire recruiting class together anymore, but the right coach can connect with players on a personal level to try and stay around a year or two longer.
I actually think JC is completely capable of being that coach if the on court success can improve. Right now it's almost impossible to convince someone to stay when we are competing to get out of the Wednesday Night Pillow Fight in the A-10 tournament.
Last edited by GW0509 (9/26/2021 12:59 pm)
- dmvpiranha
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Re: Eight Years Later
Agree with the above that we generally counted on Temple or Xavier to represent the A10 annually (as one of our multiple bids). They were consistently two of the better teams in the league, so I think it was fair to assume the A10 was going to fall back closer to the 2 bid range at the time once it was announced that they were leaving. Butler on the other hand I didn't really care much about given their short stay in the league. If anything, that did get me to start thinking that the A10 would be used as a stepping stone for some teams looking to join the power conference ranks but thankfully that has not been the case.
I'd be lying if I saw the win percentages dip as posted above at that time though. If I'm being honest, the A10 is coasting a bit on name recognition rather than actual performance the past several years. There have been fewer opportunities to schedule power conference teams in OOC, and teams just have not been winning games they should. The AAC is considered a comparable conference to the A10 and while teams like Houston and Memphis are probably rated slightly higher than the best teams in the A10, their "bottom feeders" like East Carolina and South Florida are still within the top 200 of KenPom. I would be interested in taking a look at the number of top 50/100 KenPom teams that come from the A10 in past seasons when I have a bit more time. The worst teams in the A10 should not be below the 200 range, but pretty consistently it has been 3 teams with a couple additional teams that just missed falling below. This is holding the conference back. Teams like UMass, St. Joe's and GW who have had success in the league need to get back to at least closer to what they've been in the past.
I have gone a bit back and forth on whether realignment will hurt GW. My answer for now is no, but everyone in the A10 needs to commit to basketball if they want to be known as the top basketball conference outside of the high major leagues (I don't get the sense that the league is known for their other sports). There have been talks about Dayton and SLU leaving the conference for 10+ years, but I don't see it happening at least in the short-term. In the case of Dayton, I see Xavier blocking any attempts from the Flyers to join the Big East. More than anything, I don't see what the Big East gains by adding more teams at the moment. If they do in the future, I wouldn't be surprised to see SLU get an early call, but I still think as a team SLU has never reached their full potential recently which would convince a league like the Big East to want to invite them. They have been very good, but I don't know that it moves the needle for a higher league, at least yet. VCU has the support and fanbase, but I do wonder whether havoc could be sustainable at a higher league when other teams are used to it (it's a bit different OOC). Their offense would definitely have to get better. UMass has also been mentioned with the AAC, but I don't think that their football/basketball performance recently will get them noticed.
I have only been falling the realignment situation recently, but the next few seasons are really critical for the A10. The MVC getting Belmont (and I'm guessing Murray State) is great for that league and even though a team like Evansville hasn't been great, most teams in that league are close to the top 150 in KenPom. That league can definitely begin making the case for multiple bids every year and they don't have the bottom feeders that the A10/AAC have. While they don't have as many top teams, simply having more Q1/Q2 opportunities will help some of those teams. Fortunately, the A10 still has the name recognition over the MVC, but all the teams in this league need to win at a better clip (I guess that goes without saying).
So far, it doesn't appear that the top players are bolting from the A10 to join better conferences from the time the new transfer rule was passed, but a larger sample size will be needed (especially given the extra year rule due to COVID). Tre Mitchell left UMass by all accounts because of what went down with Bergeron on staff, and Jamison left to return closer to home but otherwise most of the departures were seniors that wanted to go pro or already graduated from their school. Davidson doesn't have a grad school so Grady wouldn't have been able to stay anyways. The A10 was very senior-laden last year.
The GW to the Patriot League talks have struck me as just some fans being a bit down on the team/frustrated which I understand but personally I don't see how such a move would make much sense at all (especially competing with another DC school for recruits?). There's certainly no guarantee that GW has a better chance of winning since the talent recruited would also be less. If anything, I would think a team like Fordham or La Salle would step down before GW, a team that has been a staple in the A10 since the league really began.
I expect the A10 to stand pat and not kick out/add any members right now. I'm not convinced that it's the right decision, but I guess we'll see. We have the chance to overtake the AAC for sure in future seasons. Rumors have mentioned teams like Colorado State and UAB joining the conference. Both would be good gets for basketball (though not enough to keep the AAC at the level they're currently at), but I think for the most part they will be looking to add teams based on football performance which should benefit the league. Adding Wichita State and Temple would be awesome, but I don't see either happening right now. Geographically, Wichita might look to the Mountain West before the A10 and Temple still seems to care about their middling at best football team.
- Gwmayhem
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Re: Eight Years Later
In looking at our conference's performance over these past 8 seasons, one additional point should be made. Over the first four years since Temple's, X's and Butler's departure, the cumulative winning percentage was much higher and more bids were being awarded. Not only were the players on these A10 rosters players who came to their schools, among other reasons, to play against schools like Temple and Xavier, but the high school players being recruited were being told that they would have the chance to play Temple and Xavier 1-3 times annually. The first four years of these past eight years were different (more successful) because players felt they were coming to a stronger conference than the A10 is today. These past four years, everyone knows that Temple/X/Butler are long gone, and the cumulative record has gone down considerably (with the exception of one season which can largely be attributed to Dayton's gaudy record with Tobbin and Crutcher). I think it's fair to say that if we continue to send two schools to the dance annually and if our winning % continues around the .500-.520 range rather than the .540-.560 range, that the A10 will be definitely regarded by all as a lesser league as it once was. This view may already have taken shape by some; it just took several years for this development to crystallize.
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Thread Starter- Mentzinger
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Re: Eight Years Later
dmvpiranha wrote:
So far, it doesn't appear that the top players are bolting from the A10 to join better conferences from the time the new transfer rule was passed. ...
This year:
Tree Mitchell (umASS) to Texas, Russell (URI) to Maryland, Grady (Davidson) to Kentucky, Battle (GW) to Minnesota, Jones (Davidson) to Duke, Soriano (Fordham) to St. Johns, Miller (GMU) to Miami, Wilson (GMU) to S. Carolina, DeGray (umASS) to Missouri.
To be fair, A10 seems to be attracting a lot more Power 6 conference transfers in lately as well.
- Poog
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Re: Eight Years Later
Didn’t list Lincoln Ball to American.