Get the program right and the wins will come when they matter. We need more talent and time to adjust to a different playing style. It's a process. Nobody will care about two November losses to a Patriot and MEAC team in year one if JC gets this right in year two or three. 

I guess I come from the perspective that when you realize what damage was done to this program beginning from the "decision" in 2016, you can't be humiliated or bothered by much now. For the first time since the "decision" we have someone trying to dig us out of this deep mess. I can now see that it won't be easy and it won't be quick.

Well feel better after the losses in the second year of a new coach were pointed out. But we were 2-2 after four games, also beating BU and Hofstra. 3-3 after six games. We are 1-3 losing to Towson, as well as AU and Morgan State at home. Took us 37 minutes to comfortably put away Howard at home, and Howard lost to Toledo afterward 112-68.
Two of those losses found some inexplicable coaching decisions, from truly bizarre rotations that made no sense to seeming strategic lapses in not fouling, followed in the next game by a last shot play drawn up for an unproven shooter. JC is not showing coaching brilliance, though judging from comments, many of us think he will be a fine coach.
On the other hand,using the second year analogy a 13-17 second year was followed by 24-9 and an NCAA tournament appearance. That second year, though, was really the first with the Lonergan big cohort of players, while JC got a lot of his recruits in this year.
But most important, we could feel progress then. Don't see any progress (quite naturally yet) or even energy from most of the players (while energetic Mazz sits for no apparent reason). Soon as we feel progress, we will feel better. And still believe and hope we will.
   But Arnaldo injured or not, we should not lose to Morgan State (or AU really) at home. Sorry. Some losses can't be explained away. What has us freaked out is the odd rotation that can affect player morale going forward and seemed to show little understanding of how the game unfolded.  And our expectations should never be so low that we hang our heads in defeat before we take the court and take solace in an unexpected defeat.
 So, if JC is subcontracting out the offense and "defense," he needs to take control.  Adjustments need to be made, even if they clash with his preferred style. JC has shown himself to be a smart and talented coach and we have to believe he will continue his upward progression here. It is a low pressure situation this year, but not a no pressure situation.
   Don't know about everybody else, but as a whole, wins and losses always matter. Would rather we lose honorably than lower our values.  But if we become a doormat for the Morgan State, AU and Towsons, then that affects morale, recruiting and fans.
We have at least one key player we need to retain next year. And while the few hardcore fans here aren't going anywhere, it will be hard to fill the Smith Center without free alcohol to the students if we don't win at least a bit. It really felt good when the Smith Center was rocking in the first home game.
   Think most of us are glad JC is here, for a number of reasons. He doesn't get a free pass, but isn't expected to be in postseason play either. Do expect in a few years, though that we will be.
And while not expecting a banner year, still want to win some games, especially those we should win.
That should be a reasonable expectation, especially as the season continues.

All I'm going to say to you guys is that some things will become apparent as to certain player rotations soon. Wait for it.

GW has fundamentally changed the way in which it structures its offense from last year. Some of our players are better suited to the style GW played last year and others were recruited to play JC's style. The bottom line is JC wants to play a certain way for the long term benefit of the program. GW has mismatched parts which is understandable in year one. Undoubtedly, JC is not going to sacrifice that development to beat AU and Morgan State in his first year. He has bigger goals in mind. That may mean we have to take a step back to go forward. As I said before this is his year to set the program culture and style of play. Again, I'm not worried if we lose some games we might have won as long as JC gets the program to advance developmentally this year. 

Also, not everything comes down to coaching or being outcoached. Sometimes guys appear to be good coaches because guys make shots doing exactly the same thing as they would if they didn't make those shots. There is an old saying in basketball coaching circles that I have heard often ... it's not about the X's and O's but rather the Jimmies and the Joes. When the Jimmies and Joes are right the X's and O's usually follow. 

I believe our X's and O's are light years ahead of the past 3 years. We defend much better overall. We run some really good stuff. We ran a last second play versus Morgan State that got us a wide open 3 by Walker. It didn't go in but the play was outstanding. I am not in the least bit worried about our coaching. I am much more concerned about our talent level. Put another way, I'm not sure except perhaps for Toro we have a player who would start for any other A-10 team at the moment. Maybe in a year or so that changes. But unless they let us go play in the MAAC or America East, we are going to be playing with a talent deficit this year virtually every game in the A-10.

Last edited by GWRising (11/18/2019 6:23 pm)

I believe JC will turn things around, and the W-L in his first few games or even first year will hardly indicate what the future.
Hobbs and ML lost big at first, Penders and Mojo each won 20 games, first year.
Your first year is what you inherit.  
 

On talent level I largely agree with GW Rising.

Toro is a strong a10 player and one of the best rebounders in the nation, and his absence is the main reason we lost to Morgan state.

Nelson would start for a lot of a10 teams right now.  He just needs time to get better.  He looks to me like a future all league player. 

Jack as a starter is a real indictment of our talent.  Think about hood college or catholic last year.  They had bigs who competed and got a few boards/blocks but were basically overmatched.  If Javi played for Hood, he would not be one of their top 2 or 3 options. So forget about the a10 - he wouldn’t start for AU or morgant state.  When or if Harris and Paar get healthy, I wonder how much we will see of javi down the stretch. 

Battle looks like a good player to me.  Well done by mojo to land him.  I don’t think he’d be starting for most a10 teams, but within a year or two I think he’d be starting for most.  His game reminds me a lot of Sean McDermott from Butler (their floor stretching wing).  Battle might actually be better than McDermott by the time he’s a junior. 

Mezzie is still an enigma.

Same with Mazzula.  There’s nothing he does badly but also not great at anything in particular.  I don’t know if he’s good enough to be a glue guy on a top 150 team, but his skills probably would have helped us beat Morgan state if he played more. 

Maceo, like Potter, is a completely different player on offense or defense.  Maceo needs to keep working on his all around game, including defense and off ball movement,  to become the kind of player who can start for a good a10 team.  Potter is what he is at this point - a guy who can score a lot for a Charleston southern type team. 

Walker I have no idea yet. 

Apologies to whoever I forgot.

There really appears to be just one point that is in dispute.  I'd say we are all in agreement that this program is in need of upgraded talent.  If we are comparing GW to almost all other A10 teams, we don't have enough talent to realistically compete for say a top 4 double bye.  Likely not even the upper half of the conference.  We all agree that JC needs time to turn things around.  I'm not sure anyone is disputing any of this.

The debate that has sparked had to do with an assessment of GW's talent right now compared to that of AU and MSU.  And to suggest that home losses to these schools either don't matter or should not be cared about.  It is very possible to have low expectations for this year's team while also feeling upset that GW lost both of these games.  This is how I feel and how I believe several others are feeling too.   

GWRising, we can not possibly be watching the same team if you feel our half court defense has been decent. 

Towson         Points in the paint: 36       Fast break points       7
Howard         Points in the paint: 30       Fast break points       5 
AU                Points in the paint: 32       Fast break points       7
MSU             Points in the paint: 40       Fast break points      14

None of these teams had a dominant center who we could not contain in the paint.  The fast break points as a percentage of points in the paint is not particularly high.

What's been happening is that: a) our guards and wings can not effectively defend against opponents penetrating into the lane; and b) we do not have a rim protector either in AT or Javy who is making anyone think twice about taking the ball inside.

And as you suggest, Towson/Howard/AU/MSU is not exactly a murderers row.
 

I'll repeat our half court defense has been decent. Didn't say good/great but decent enough to be 4-0 or 3-1. The Morgan State points in the paint is misleading because Toro missed most of the game and we went small. You are correct that we don't have a great defensive post presence in the middle (even with Toro) which has led to opponents scoring in the paint. However, our record is largely a reflection of poor shooting and turnovers not our half court defense. For example, just among the A-10 teams we rank dead last in 3FG%. Plus we are taking 9 more a game. So bad percentage on more shots. As for our defensive structure I think we are closing out hard leading to teams having to either choose contested 3s or drive to the hole. It may be a question of choosing your poison, but I would trade 2's for 3's most everyday, the way the game is played now. 

Well the one thing that is telling so far, although again not a large sample size, is that we have held 3 of 4 teams below their season averages from 3FG.

But I think you missing something here. In the two games were we allowed opponents to shoot better than 40% on 2FG, we made a ton of turnovers. Against both Towson and AU we gave up 17 and 18 points off turnovers. I believe that was the reason we gave up higher percentages because  many of those turnovers led to easy points. Again, our half court defense at least so far is not a a primary issue. We have lost the last 2 games solely because we cannot score given the number of possessions and the shooting percentages.  

What I think is that because we are having difficulty scoring it magnifies our half court defense lapses when they occur. But statistically they are not occurring as often as you would like to suggest.