*UC San Diego

Last edited by GW0509 (11/11/2021 8:48 pm)

UCSD did in fact win, actually it was a pound on California, on the road no less 80-67.

So maybe on the road we'll be 'dogs, but I think we'll be favored, by a tad.   Playing Maryland so tightly in their building should impact the line as well.

That said if they can beat on Cal, we could be in for a tough game.

 

We got a line yet?

GW opens as a 1 pt favorite

O/U 145.5

This will be the first time GW has played in the Pacific Time Zone since 2017 when they played in that Vegas tournament.

The Dude wrote:

That line says :

1. This team pounded Cal on the road, they're dangerous.
2. 3000 miles away on a quick turnaround for us.



 

It’s also because the computers are still mostly based on last year.  We are actually a 1 point underdog on KenPom. 

I don’t want to overlook a team that pounded Cal, but as I said I really like the way we match up with them.  As long as we make shots and take care of the ball; I think we can do well against a team that doesn’t go to the offensive glass and relies on the three (last year they were 6th in the nation in highest percentage of shots coming from three, and nearly 50% of their shots were threes vs Cal).  We are going to need to run them off the line and not over help on defense, leaving shooters.  But if we can continue guarding the arc like we have the last two games, it’s going to be very tough for them.

UC San Diego Tritons

Date/Time: Saturday November 13th @ 10:00 PM ET at the Recreation, IntraMural, and Athletic Complex (RIMAC) Arena in La Jolla, CA. Not sure they need all of that in the name but the abbreviation makes it unique I guess? Guess they are waiting for a sponsor.

TV: ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 291st (KenPom), 291st (Bart Torvik), 316th (CBS), 308th (SI)
2020-21 Record: 7-10, 4-8 (T-9th in Big West)
2021-22 Preseason Record: 14-18, 8-12 (8th in Big West)

Coach: Eric Olen, 166-66 in eight seasons at UCSD (160-56 in D2). After playing for Spring Hill (NAIA) from 1999-2004, Olen left his native Alabama to make the cross-country trip to San Diego. He served as an assistant for the Tritons for nine years before eventually given the keys to take over the program full time. While in D2, Olen's squad never finished under .500 in conference and it took just three years for him to consistently keep UCSD as a top 3 team in the league. In seven seasons in D2, UCSD won three regular season titles and made four NCAA D2 appearances. Olen's next challenge is transitioning his squad to the D1 ranks, and he is already made great strides there.

Head-to-Head: This is our first time playing the school, although we are currently 2-0 all-time against the other "San Diego" schools. We beat the San Diego State Aztecs by 19 in our memorable NIT run a few years ago, and the San Diego Toreros by 14 all the way back in 1992 (which was also on the road).

Offensive Efficiency: 232nd (KenPom), 227th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 324th (KenPom), 326th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 93rd (KenPom), 114th (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 60.4% (187th in country)

Key Returning Players:
Toni Ročak (Junior; Geneva, Switzerland) 12.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.2 SPG; 52% FG, 24% 3-PT, 64% FT
Bryce Pope (Sophomore; San Diego, CA) 9.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG; 47% FG, 40% 3-PT, 33% FT
Jake Killingsworth (RS Senior; San Carlos, CA) 8.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.8 APG; 44% FG, 41% 3-PT, 68% FT

Key Losses:
Gabe Hadley (Graduated; Launceston, Australia) 12 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.1 SPG; 48% FG, 42% 3-PT, 75% FT
Hugh Baxter (Transferred to Point Loma Nazarene; Melbourne, Australia) 10 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.5 APG; 50% FG, 38% 3-PT, 70% FT
Mikey Howell (Transferred to Bradley; San Marcos, CA) 6.9 PPG, 3 RPG, 6 APG, 1.9 SPG; 41% FG, 32% 3-PT, 66% FT

Comments:
COVID was tough on every team on 2020-21, but one could argue no team had a tougher time adjusting than UC San Diego. The Tritons were eager to prove they could compete with their Big West peers right away, but any program would have trouble transitioning to D1 in the midst of a pandemic. UCSD got hit with several COVID cases as soon as the season began, keeping the team on the sidelines for the first month of the season. They were only able to get two non-conference games in, and they were against the same squad - St. Katherine's, an NAIA program close to the school.

While UCSD showed no sign of rust in those two games, they did not have any experience against D1 competition prior to embarking on their inaugural journey in the Big West. To make matters more complicated, the Tritons had their first three conference games canceled by COVID, which included the two games against Cal Poly (nothing against the Mustangs, but UCSD would have likely been able to win at least one of those contests if not both to make their final W-L tally look better). Instead, UCSD was welcomed to the league by facing the two consistent top dogs in the Big West - UC Irvine & UC Santa Barbara, and as expected they lost all three games by double digits.

Part of the difficulty when assessing a team's performance last year is that most did not face all opponents in their league. Many teams were placed into "pods" and only faced a select group of teams from the league. UC San Diego was pretty much screwed by that system - not only were they adjusting to the intensity of D1 competition, but they consistently faced the better teams in the league. Had they faced teams like Cal Poly, CSUN, and Long Beach State they would likely have been around .500 (or better) in their first year. The Tritons did close their season on a high note with a sweep of Cal St. Fullerton (more on them in a couple days), but watched March Madness from their couches as the NCAA has that incredibly stupid four year transition rule for teams moving up to D1. (On top of that, the Big West enforced a transition rule of their own, so none of their conference wins counted last year - oh look another outrageous rule!)

Entering this year, Olen will sure be glad to have had a closer to normal offseason for his team as UCSD looks to climb the standings in the Big West. He has a solid combination of returning production and new arrivals to make that goal possible. The returners are headlined by Toni Ročak, a Regis (D2) transfer who is an incredibly versatile scorer. Ročak led the nation in usage when he was on the court and was one of the best players at getting to the FT line (this is key for a team that likes to take jumpers - somewhat like Maryland). He led UCSD in both scoring and rebounding last year, and has the ability to create his own shot. He is a consistent three point shot away from being borderline unguardable.

Ročak consistently got good looks because of strong point guard play from the departed Mikey Howell (averaged 6 assists per game), so one of UCSD's early challenges will be finding a replacement. It does not appear that there will be just one guy who will be able to do it by himself, so it will likely be somewhat of a by committee approach with Jake Killingsworth, Bryce Pope, and Jace Roquemore being asked to step up. Killingsworth (a Columbia transfer) and Pope are strong three point shooters (both north of 40%). Pope was more of an off-ball guard in 2020-21, playing the spot-up shooter role. Killingsworth has the experience on his side to be a primary ball handler but having multiple guards on the floor at the same time gives Olen some versatility. Roquemore, a Nevada native, showed some real promise in his first year as a playmaker, but struggled with his efficiency at times. Pope and Roquemore were largely hesitant to attack the rim last year - in 17 games, Pope shot six free throws while Roquemore shot 18 (not much better). On top of that, neither converted well from the line.

Matt Gray, Kaden Rasheed and Jake Kosakowski return as well to play complementary roles. Gray is an Australian who came over from Drake and provides potential as big with three level scoring potential. He had 10 points against Cal in the opener. Rasheed is a walk-on, but provides some leadership on a team that has 11 freshmen and sophomores. Kosakowski is another tailor-made wing with good length and has the ability to shoot the three.

Olen also brought in two power conference transfers in J'Raan Brooks (Washington/USC) and John Diener (DePaul) but neither saw action in the opener against Cal. Brooks has played behind a bunch of talented players at his prior stops but should shine with more of an opportunity in San Diego. He can score from all over the court and adds size to a team that really needed it last year. Diener has yet to see any action in D1 hoops and likely needs a bit more time before he can make the rotation. He is another guy on the team with shooting potential. Reed Farley returns home from Harvard and seems likely to play the Bryan Knapp role for UCSD - he has unfortunately dealt with a multitude of injuries over his career. Vuk Vulikić (UTEP) adds more depth at the guard position.

The remainder of UCSD's rotation will be freshmen, including Francis Nwaokorie, Michael Pearson Jr., and Justin DeGraaf. Nwaokorie, a Minnesota native, has good size down low and even experimented with his three point shot in the opener - 9 points on debut is pretty impressive for a big. Pearson and DeGraaf likely only see a few spot minutes here and there. Pearson is a change of pace option at the guard position but may struggle defensively standing at 5'9", while DeGraaf is another big from the midwest who adds depth down low.

As FQ mentioned above, this seems like a good matchup for us based on our tendency to run teams off the three point line - only eight teams in the country have a better defensive 3 point rate than us. It will likely be hard to completely shut down UCSD from there, but I am under the impression that we are a more talented team than California (not taking any credit away from UCSD - that was still a good win, but California is one of the worst P6 teams in the country). UCSD likely fares a bit better defensively than they did last year with more size, but still lack the athleticism to make it truly hard on us. It will be on us to make more shots than we did the first two games of the season. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a bounce back game for Bishop. I expect a very uptempo game overall. How we respond to the short turnaround/traveling across the country will be a major key. We might start off flat, but think we will get things going later in the game.

Predicted Score: UC San Diego 77, GW 75. 41% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN has the win probability at 49.8% - basically a true tossup. UCSD was a one point favorite but it seems like it's closer to a two point favorite now.
 

Watching this recap video of the game vs. Cal it definitely looks like they were hitting some bombs on 3.  Hopefully our 3 point defense continues to show up.  





Rocak looks like he might be a matchup issue for us.  I would put either Lindo or Bamisile on him and shut him down.  Pope looks pretty athletic too.  Hopefully Adams can take of him.

Last edited by GW0509 (11/13/2021 12:39 pm)

The Other MG wrote:

I know I'm peripheral to the core posting group, and don't have much to contribute, but I'll be at this game (and the "tailgate" before it).  If there are any members of the athletic department present, and any of you have questions for them that you'd like me to ask, please let me know.

Wisconsin Colonial and I will likewise be there.  See you at the reception.   I will be the one kvetching about something.

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

The Other MG wrote:

I know I'm peripheral to the core posting group, and don't have much to contribute, but I'll be at this game (and the "tailgate" before it).  If there are any members of the athletic department present, and any of you have questions for them that you'd like me to ask, please let me know.

Wisconsin Colonial and I will likewise be there.  See you at the reception.   I will be the one kvetching about something.

Wander Suero and his pals will rest easy.

I will be there, the old white guy with no hair and a happy wife staying at home.  Also, camped out near the food with a GW Sailing cap.