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GW beats Wright St to advance vs Kent St. 530PM EST start time
Kent St has a 133 KenPom, we're going to be heavy underdogs again.
Lets pull off another upset and keep this thing going.
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If you can believe this is possible, according to KenPom, Kent St has been a worse defensive rebounding team than us so far this year.
At least on paper, we would seem to match up well very with them when you look at strengths and weaknesses, but of course none of that matters if we don’t execute and make shots.
These are small sample size numbers because they’ve only played 2 D1 games (loss to Xavier, win over JMU):
- They have been a poor rebounding team. Only 237th in offensive rebounding and 326th in defensive rebounding (we are 246 and 289). The rebounding battle should play a key role, but before we get too excited, they were a very good offensive rebounding team last year (though they had 2 big guys on that teak who aren’t there anymore).
- 19% of their shots have been blocked, which is 5th worst in the country (though that’s mostly because Xavier blocked 9 of 62 shots). We are a good shot blocking team, 72nd in shot blocking percentage (though our tendency to try to block every shot leads to a ton of offensive rebounds against us).
- they are 4th easiest to steal the ball from this year, though we are just average in steals. (That said, they are among the nation’s leaders in non-steal turnovers).
- their shooting inside the arc has been poor. What’s interesting is that our 2pt defense is only average, but given how many second chance points we’ve given up, I suspect if you could isolate our 1st shot 2pt defense, we’d be excellent. If Kent St continues to be poor at getting offensive rebounds, they may have a hard time with our defense making first shots tough.
- where they are strong is that through 2 games they are shooting 40% from three, though they only take an average number of them. Our defense on 3s has been great - opponents are shooting just 22.9% on threes against us, which is 13th best 3pt defense in the country, and we are preventing teams from even taking them (33rd fewest % of shots are threes against us).
Clearly the way to beat GW is to take the ball to the rim and get offensive rebounds, but at least so far that has not been what Kent St does.
On the flip side, Kent St’s opponents shoot a ton of 3s (45% of shots) but only are making 20.8% - which is even lower than what we are giving up. Again, only two games, but it seems they want to force us to shoot from 3 - and they are in the bottom 25 in the country in 2pt defense this year. We obviously can’t just settle for 3s and we will need to share the ball to avoid stagnating against this D (not our strength by any stretch)).
Some other stats and notes:
- They have shot an impressive 85% from the line. Regression is coming but if we foul a lot, we are toast. They also foul a lot, and our rate of fouling has been terrible (outside of the top 300).
- their point guard is our old friend from Duquesne, Sincere Carry. Very talented player, though Bishop dominated him last year (but there was something going on because Carry left before the year was over to go to Kent st).
- their backcourt is not big. They go 6’1, 6’1”, 6’3” and those 3 play most of the game (they all played at least 35 minutes today). Bishop and Adams should have a nice advantage in length and size and they need to play well. Can’t afford to just try to go one on one and miss shots over these guys or we will squander our side advantage, and can’t get in foul trouble.
- Up front they have a 6’11” Former temple player, Justyn Hamilton. He prefers to hang on the perimeter. He’s very efficient inside the arc, but he’s not a great rebounder for his size. Defensively his length could be tough for Lindo, but I think Lindo could give him trouble if he plays a physical game; rather than a finesse game.
- That said, Hamilton could be on Brown/Dean, because their 5th starter, who I don’t know well, Terrvell Beck. He is 6’7”, 230 lbs and a 5th year senior. But his rebounding numbers are anemic and his usage is low, so he’s not a banger. He can hit three 3 and is shooting 34-86 on threes for his career. Not a volume shooter, but he’ll probably make one or two tomorrow.
So ultimately, they put our 5 guys who are more comfortable on the perimeter. In fact, 6’3” guy is their main rebounder and has only taken 1 three. They’ll want to spread the floor on us and move the ball to get our defense off balance, so that obviously matches up to a weakness or ours. I would expect Hunter to play a lot more minutes than Brown today because his mobility matches up better vs a team with no big post threat.
They also have little bench. Andrew Garcia is a Georgia transfer who should be their 6th man (or start) but I think he’s hurt because he didn’t play today. That leaves DJ Johnson, not much of an offensive player, to get 17 minutes today and no one else got more than 7. With both teams lacking depth, foul trouble could be a factor, as well as bench contributions.
Ultimately, just like today, this will come down to shot making. If we miss a million contested shots around the basket like during our 3 game losing streak, we will get beat. If we can put the ball through the basket, I’m hopeful our defense can make things tough on them.
Would be cool to string together back to back wins vs average teams after the terrible start to our season.
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Kent State Golden Flashes
Date/Time: Tuesday November 23rd @ 5:30 PM ET at The Community School of Naples in Naples, FL.
TV: FloHoops
Preseason Ranks: 143rd (KenPom), 122nd (Bart Torvik), 123rd (CBS), 130th (SI)
2020-21 Record: 15-8, 12-6 (T-3rd in MAC)
2021-22 Projected Record: 20-10, 13-7 (4th in MAC)
Coach: Rob Senderoff, 196-129 in 10 seasons at Kent State. The Golden Flashes have played in 4 CIT tournaments and have had 1 NCAA appearance under Senderoff, who has been a model of consistency - Kent St. has had just one season where they have finished below .500 in conference since he took over. The native of Spring Valley, NY started off as a student assistant at Albany before taking a graduate assistant job a MAC rival Miami (OH). He then served as an assistant at Fordham, Yale, Towson, Kent State, and Indiana before returning to Kent where he's been for the past 13 years (3 as the top assistant, and the remainder as head coach).
Head-to-Head: Never faced before. This marks the fifth opponent in a row that we'll be facing for the first time.
Offensive Efficiency: 140th (KenPom), 106th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 143rd (KenPom), 137th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 107th (KenPom), 147th (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 65.5% (146th in country)
Key Returning Players:
Tervell Beck (Senior; Cleveland, OH) 11.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG; 56% FG, 46% 3-PT, 78% FT
Malique Jacobs (Junior; Wilmington, NC) 10 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2 SPG; 44% FG, 32% 3-PT, 76% FT
Giovanni Santiago (Sophomore; Bayamón, PR) 9.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.2 SPG; 41% FG, 45% 3-PT, 92% FT
Justyn Hamilton (Senior; Charlotte, NC) 8.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1 APG; 52% FG, 8% 3-PT, 61% FT
Key Losses:
Danny Pippen (Left Team; Detroit, MI) 19.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.3 BPG; 40% FG, 31% 3-PT, 81% FT
Michael Nuga (Transferred to UNLV; Toronto, Canada) 17.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.5 SPG; 50% FG, 39% 3-PT, 81% FT
Comments:
It was business as usual for Rob Senderoff and the Golden Flashes last season. Coming into last season, Kent State was searching for that extra gear needed to get to the very top of the MAC. The Golden Flashes have always been in the mix - in the season before "the COVID year" Kent had won 20 games and finished 9-9 in conference, yet they only placed 4th in the East division (the MAC is one of the few conferences that were still using divisions at that point).
While the bottom five teams in the league are usually horrendous, the MAC as a whole is a very underrated conference - they are football first, but Buffalo, Ohio, Toledo, Akron, and Bowling Green are other teams that have been top 100-ish teams the past several years. Perhaps moving to the "pod system" like the Conference USA or adding a couple more quality teams could push the league to a 2-bid league some years. Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee were rumored to be joining the league in the conference realignment game of musical chairs this offseason, but are ultimately staying put in the C-USA for now. This decision was likely for football, and while MTSU has had some down years recently they were pretty good in the recent past. WKU has definitely been looking elsewhere as the C-USA continues to lose teams to the AAC and Sun Belt.
Like just about every other team, Kent State had a number of games canceled or postponed due to COVID - 5 to be exact. The Golden Flashes saw their first action of the year in December against NAIA program Point Park, located in Pittsburgh. Despite the occasional interruptions over the course of the year, Kent State bent but did not break. They took #15 Virginia to overtime before falling 71-64 (same score that we had against #21 Maryland). Entering late February, the only teams they were unable to figure out were Toledo and rival Akron, falling to them twice. While Kent State dropped three of their final four contests of the season (they had to face the two top dogs Buffalo and Ohio to close the year...ouch) they finished with their best ever KenPom finish under Senderoff (115th) with a 12-6 conference mark (tied for best under Senderoff).
With COVID affording players an extra year of eligibility, Kent State on paper had the personnel to potentially contend for the conference crown this season. Unfortunately, during the offseason their top two scorers (Pippen and Nuga) departed, ultimately looking to play elsewhere having graduated from the school. The two players combined for 37 points a game, nearly half of Kent State's points in 2020-21. While Senderoff still had four MAC-caliber starters returning, he went to work in the transfer portal looking to replace the production lost.
Kent State brings in four players from the transfer portal, with two players hailing from the SEC and two players coming from the A10: Sincere Carry (Duquesne), Andrew Garcia (Georgia), DeVale 'D.J.' Johnson (Rhode Island), and Akeem Odusipe (Vanderbilt).
Carry left Duquesne midway through the season (I believe a couple games after our back-to-back with them), ultimately searching for a school a bit closer to home in Ohio. He burst onto the scene as a freshman, averaging 12 points a game while dishing out 6 assists per contest. While he did see success as a sophomore, he never quite made the leap to ascend to star status in the league and somewhat flatlined in 2019-20. It will be interesting to see whether his inefficiency last season was due to playing in the COVID era or not as he took a step back in pretty much every category, likely prompting him to depart after 5 games in his third season with the program.
Garcia was a very good player at Stony Brook, making the all-America East second team prior to playing at Georgia last season. He held his own against good competition and was one of the best offensive rebounders in the SEC (bad news for us). Fortunately, I believe he is still getting back from an injury and may not play in the game.
Johnson, a former JUCO, provides positional versatility as a guy who can play down on the block or stretch defenses along the perimeter. He canned 39% of his threes last season at URI and can play a useful role in the rotation. Odusipe adds more rebounding down low to a team that really pounds the glass on both ends of the floor.
Kent State returns two key players in the backcourt (Malique Jacobs and Giovanni Santiago) and two key players in the frontcourt (Tervell Beck and Justyn Hamilton) from last season. Jacobs, a JUCO transfer, is Kent's best defender averaging 2 steals a game. His game represents KSU's identity as a whole - get to the rim, look to draw fouls, and pass the ball around to find an open lane to get downhill.
Santiago, a Puerto Rico native, is a flamethrower from distance. He led the team in makes (51), shooting it at 45% and converting on 92% of his tries from the line. When he doesn't have the space to shoot he does a great job as a primary playmaker. Santiago averaged 4 assists a game last season, but with Jacobs and Carry around, will probably be allowed to play more off-ball this season and spot-up from distance.
Beck returned home from UNLV and made an immediate impact on the wing. He fits Kent's identity perfectly - he had one of the highest FT rates in the MAC last season and complements his inside finishing with a solid three point stroke (46% from distance). Hamilton, a former Temple Owl, is another guy who really crashes the glass. He is the leading returning rebounder on the team (7 a game) and is a serviceable rim protector on the other end. Offensively, he won't do more than posting up. If we do foul, he is the weakest free throw shooter on the squad at 61%.
Freshmen Jeremiah Hernandez and VonCameron Davis will look to gain more playing time this season. Hernandez was a poor finisher last season but showed promise at the free throw line at 73%. Davis showed the ability to finish inside and rebound when he played and figures to be a solid player long term for them. The transfer additions might make it tougher for them to breakout in a meaningful way.
True freshmen Cli'Ron Hornbeak and Jalen Sullinger should see some action off the bench. Hornbeak adds even more rebounding and size at 6'9" - one of the tallest players on the squad. Sullinger is former Ohio State Buckeye Jared Sullinger's nephew. He will look to gain experience this season with the hope of having more of a featured role on the team a year or two from now.
This figures to be a tough matchup for us, just based on Kent State's identity. The Golden Flashes are not three point reliant and like to attack the basket and get to the line. Given our fouling issues early in the season, that feels like an issue. They are also pretty good at pulling down offensive rebounds (although haven't quite reached the same level as last year) and we have given other teams plenty of second and third chance opportunities so far this year. Ira would have made a big difference this game for sure. Hope we give it a good effort and show that yesterday was not a (golden) flash in the pan.
Projected Score: Kent State 74, GW 66. 22% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 30.1% chance to extend the win streak to two games. The Golden Flashes open as a 7 point favorite.
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Great preview. If their game is driving to the rim and drawing fouls, those are weaknesses for us. Will be interesting to see how we defend them, and if we make any adjustments.
Last edited by Free Quebec (11/23/2021 11:11 am)
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Brown starting at center. No big deal, as long as minutes still favor Dean 30/10
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Nice ball movement. Two assists in a row (and would have been a third if Brown went up quickly before they fouled him).
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Harris in early.
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Yes. Bishop nice pass to Lindo. Good things happen when we share the ball by design or opportunity and hit the boards both ways.
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Bishop playing very much in control. Loving it.
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So far, what a difference this tourny between Brown and Dean.
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Now a little more one on one than is desirable, but we are getting bailed out by foul calls,so it's working. But not a good habit.
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GREAT start. Two fouls on Carry, their best player. The defense has been excellent - I think they’ve only taken one really good shot (a three from the corner they missed. The three they made was very deep and I’m sure we will give them that all day). Rebounding has been very good with the only offensive rebounds for them coming twice when we had good position but had a hard carom come off someone’s hands.
And offense is executing well, getting good shots.
You can also very clearly hear JC barking out instructions including telling Noel to take his time at one point.
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Good, aggressive man to man defense, even though they hit the 3.
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Please delete what I just said about Bishop being in control.
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Well, bad last 4 minutes. 8-0 run in which we took no good shots (though it looked like Biship got fouled hard with no call on his 7 footer that missed by 2 feet, so that was probably a good shot).
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The formula that gave us an early lead has stopped working. Lets see if any adjustments can be made.
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Yes, saw it coming. Others playing more hero ball.
We need to nip it early.
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Note Kent team play
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I think I have seen enough of Adams for a while.
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An off balance 3 point shot early in the shot clock. Shot selection???