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Next up, LaSalle.
Very similar team to us, in record, KenPom, offensive and defensive rankings etc so looks like an even matchup
Does GW make it 4 wins in 6 games??
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I say a close ish win. 70-64 type game
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La Salle Explorers
Date/Time: Wednesday February 2nd @ 7:00 PM ET at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC..
TV: ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 197th (KenPom), 232nd (Bart Torvik), 229th (CBS), 203rd (SI)
2020-21 Record: 9-16, 6-11 (12th in A10)
2021-22 Projected Record: 8-20, 3-15 (14th in A10)
Coach: Ashley Howard, 34-52 in three seasons at La Salle. Howard has strong ties to the Philadelphia area, having played collegiately at Drexel. He actually began his coaching career as an assistant under Giannini at La Salle for four seasons. Howard only ventured out of the area for one season at Xavier (not counting his assistant job with the Jamaican national team), otherwise he also spent time at his alma mater for four seasons and Villanova for five seasons before winning the head coaching job at La Salle. His dad played in the NBA for the Cavaliers after a successful college career at Maryland.
Head-to-Head: 24-18, although La Salle came out on top in the last meeting, 72-62, during the 2019-20 season. I believe Kwame Evans Jr. was in attendance for that game (unfortunately). We dug ourselves into too large of a hole, trailing by 14 at halftime and ultimately while we battled in the second half it wasn't enough. Armel and Maceo had 19 points each to lead the way. We shot the ball fairly well, but we cannot allow La Salle to have another game where they shoot 53% from deep.
Offensive Efficiency: 282nd (KenPom), 282nd (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 171st (KenPom), 179th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 123rd (KenPom), 115th (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 69.5% (131st in country)
Key Returning Players:
Jack Clark (RS Sophomore; Cheltenham, PA) 9.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.2 APG; 39% FG, 28% 3-PT, 79% FT
2019-20 vs. GW: DNP (season-ending injury)
Jhamir Brickus (Freshman; Coatesville, PA) 8.8 PPG, 2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.8 SPG; 50% FG, 33% 3-PT, 79% FT
Christian Ray (Sophomore; Gap, PA) 7.5 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1 SPG; 50% FG, 30% 3-PT, 51% FT
2019-20 vs. GW: 2 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists; 1-2 FG in 19 minutes.
Anwar Gill (Freshman; Washington, DC) 6.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.2 APG; 39% FG, 35% 3-PT, 68% FT
Clifton Moore (RS Junior; Ambler, PA) 6.1 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.4 BPG; 50% FG, 32% 3-PT, 63% FT
2019-20 vs. GW: DNP (sat out due to old transfer rules)
Key Losses:
David Beatty (Transferred to North Carolina A&T; Philadelphia, PA) 8.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.2 APG; 40% FG, 36% 3-PT, 83% FT
Scott Spencer (Transferred to Tulane; Suffolk, VA) 7 PPG, 2.7 RPG; 39% FG, 44% 3-PT, 58% FT
Jared Kimbrough (Transferred to Hartford; Neptune, NJ) 5.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG; 63% FG, 33% 3-PT, 63% FT
Key Losses During Season: (It feels good that we didn't have any mid-year defections for once!)
Sherif Kenney (Transferred to Bryant; Washington, DC) 9.6 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1 SPG; 39% FG, 35% 3-PT, 69% FT
Comments:
La Salle was all over the place last season. At first glance, it looked like Ashley Howard's squad had taken a step back, continuing a negative trajectory from his first year at the helm. The Explorers finished 9th in Howard's inaugural season, only to fall to 10th in year 2, and tie for 12th in year 3.
However, looking a bit closer the bigger issue was that La Salle was just wildly inconsistent. How much of that is due to COVID is up for debate. Around the new year, the Explorers won back-to-back games against Dayton and Fordham (the latter by 37, impressive even though Fordham was just coming off an extended pause with hardly any practice time prior). The pendulum then swung back in the other direction, as La Salle proceeded to lose their next three games by a combined 73 points. Although the Explorers continued to string together some additional wins in the middle of the season, they ended the season on a low note, dropping six of their final seven games. They *only* had four games canceled/postponed due to COVID during the season. Our matchup was one of two of their games that never got played (the other happened to be against another local team in Howard).
La Salle was a decent offensive team last year (much like us - and by decent, I mean closer to nationally average). The Explorers shot a respectable 34% from distance, and put up over 68 points a game. The bigger issue was that La Salle lacked a go-to scorer late. There was a lot of balance on last year's roster, with 10 players averaging between 4 and 10 points. I always joke that La Salle has the most forgettable roster in the A10, one that is usually filled with a lot of 4 star down transfers who shoot 30% from the field, and the lack of go-to scorer might have something to do with that.
Ashley Howard entered this year (year #4) with a bit of pressure to start getting things going in the right direction. It's no secret that La Salle is in a bit of financial trouble currently (they actually announced their new president today) so I don't know if they can even buy out the final year of Howard's contract. Things didn't exactly start off on a high note in an overtime loss to Sacred Heart (at least we did pull out that victory against St. Francis PA), which ended up being the only loss in the A10 on opening night. There were some more understandable losses later in the slate against Villanova and Temple (along with a three game win streak in the first half of December) but a loss against Bucknell by double digits is not exactly how you want to wrap up the OOC slate (they were supposed to have a game scheduled against Drexel, but I don't believe that was ever rescheduled, much like our Maryland Eastern Shore contest).
The Explorers only have one win in conference play, although they were able to do something we couldn't this year - win at St. Joe's (by double digits!). Outside of VCU (which I get as a GW fan) the Rams have played all the other teams within 10 points, unfortunately all in losing efforts (which plays a role in their 306th "luck" rating on KenPom, suggesting they should be a bit better than what their record currently states). They most recently covered against the best team in the conference, Davidson at their place. While they never truly had the Wildcats on upset alert, they were within striking distance for much of the game. We rate similarly to La Salle, and this will be by no means a cakewalk. The Explorers have shown that they can play hard against anyone in the league (not sure if it's a hot take, but I think they are more dangerous than Duquesne is currently).
Howard set out this past offseason to answer an aforementioned problem - a go-to guy on offense either late in games or any time La Salle needs a bucket. The second "berry" that we'll be facing in as many games - Josh Nickelberry, was brought in to be that guy. Nickelberry, a Louisville transfer, was horrendously inefficient when he took the floor against ACC competition, but the hope was that his efficiency would improve in a more stable role against lower competition. He's shooting 36% from distance on the year (which isn't bad) but is still shooting under 40% from the field, which is expected given his high volume shooting on the team. Nickleberry doesn't do much of anything else other than shoot, but we certainly don't want him to get hot tomorrow night.
La Salle usually goes 9-10 deep in their rotation. Howard has rotated his guards in and out of the starting lineup in recent games which will make it tougher to determine who we'll be seeing to begin the game tomorrow. Jack Clark and Jhamir Brickus have started the past two, so that seems like a reasonable place to start. Clark led the team in scoring last season and is averaging roughly 10 points a game again this season. Much like the team, he is relatively volume dependent to put up points, but is also the best free throw shooter on the team and fights hard on the boards. Brickus has been one of the more promising La Salle players in recent years. He orchestrates the offense as the primary floor general, and despite his name, is actually a fairly decent shooter - third on the team in three point makes at 36%.
Right behind them in the backcourt are Christian Ray, Anwar Gill, and true freshman Khalil Brantley. Ray is a hybrid guard/wing who may not light up the scoreboard but will certainly compete on the glass. He actually leads La Salle in rebounding on the year despite standing at just 6'6". Gill is one of the most complete players on the roster, and may have even more motivation returning home to play. He's not a true point guard (more of a combo) but paces the Explorers in assists on the season. Gill is additionally their best on-ball defender. Although he doesn't take a lot of threes, he makes the ones he takes fairly consistently at 42%. Brantley was a good get late in the recruiting cycle for Howard. Like all freshman, he has struggled with consistency, but was one of the few La Salle players to show up against Villanova earlier in the year. Brantley saw his minutes increase after Sherif Kenney departed midseason (good for us, because Kenney had a good game against us two seasons ago with a team-high 13 points). He's now at Bryant, who seems to always be on the lookout for A10 transfers - Grasso must do a good job selling it. Former GW target Daeshon Shepherd is another versatile wing who has shot the ball well in limited time, but is likely a year away from being a true factor in the rotation.
Up front, Indiana transfer Clifton Moore and Rutgers transfer Mamadou Doucouré will occupy the 4 and 5 positions respectively. Moore leads the team in scoring this year and is second in rebounding. He additionally ranks 4th in the A10 in blocks per game (2.5 bpg). Moore shoots 51% from the field, but we need to do our best to mix it up down low to force him into forced shots. I think Ricky has the ability to do that (and Qwanzi as well to a certain degree). Doucouré is one of those players who starts games but gets pulled late as Howard opts to put more guards/versatile players on the floor. I don't expect him to do much by ways of scoring unless we really struggle to guard him (which is always a possibility with this frontcourt situation). There's not much behind those two in terms of size (sounds a lot like us again!). Tegra Izay also departed midseason although he barely played. Expect former JUCO Matt McFarlane to see spot minutes if Moore gets in foul trouble or something. McFarlane does have some floor stretching ability at 6'10" which helps open things up for La Salle's guards.
This is another game where we have the ability to come out on top, and I hope we don't fall behind by double digits early as we did last time we faced them. We have a chance to get revenge from that matchup two years ago and perhaps distance ourselves from the absolute basement of the league. I expect a back and forth game, and hopefully we continue to pass the ball well from the Fordham game and shots fall. A good game from Ricky would be nice to see.
Projected Score: GW 69, La Salle 66. 62% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 62.2% chance to get back to .500 in conference play. We open as a 1.5 point home favorite (but I believe the line has moved to -2 since).
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As usual, thanks for the write up. Missed most of the last game, looking forward to a W. Nickleberry is a former GW target...didn't recall where he ended up.
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DMVPiranha, I hope you don't get tired of hearing it but once again, great job with all of these previews. They really help fill a void of not having a beat reporter covering this program from any media outlet.
Some quick thoughts:
1) Just read in the GW game notes (I suppose GW is the only other outlet for information) that all three conference wins have come with GW trailing with less than five minutes to play. Prior to these three games, GW was 6-57 in this situation under JC.
2) That first point is very encouraging. It says to me that the team has some confidence and isn't panicking when the game is on the line. It's very helpful to have several players who can be counted upon to make clutch plays. If a defense wants to double James, you still have Joe, Ricky, and Brayon who can confidently beat you. And if you avoid doubling James, he has been very steady in clutch situations and will likely make defenses pay for this.
3) LaSalle is not an opponent who should overwhelm Hunter Dean.
4) La Salle has not won outside of Philadelphia this season. They have one win on the road or a neutral court and that was at St. Joe's.
5) The Explorers have lost 4 straight and their next 4 after tonight include Mason, Richmond, and St. Louis twice. Win tonight or that's very possibly a 9 game losing streak heading into road games at UMASS and Fordham.
6) La Salle does not have a single player in the top 25 for conference game scoring. Overall, only Clifton Moore ranks tied for 23rd. As many as 7 players are more than capable of double figure scoring for the Explorers.
7) Two ways to look at this game. Glass half Full: This is a take care of business home game for GW. Not an opponent to overlook (face it, we have no business overlooking anybody) but one which we should clearly beat at home. Glass half empty: This is as close to a "must win" game as it will get for the Explorers. They are in the cellar in the conference and this is their best chance at a winnable game for weeks. Expect a hungry, somewhat desperate team.
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If the team comes out focused, and not commit a lot of bad turnovers, we should win. If they come out and treat LaSalle lightly (I can't imagine why with our record) then it will be a long night. Hope for a lot of assists and good ball movement.
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Is attendance still restricted? Looks like only invited guests are there.
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GW Alum Abroad wrote:
Is attendance still restricted? Looks like only invited guests are there.
Nope, I’m here. Attendance is pretty bad, though, just like it was on Sunday.
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Loving the offense, not so much the gambling defense. Too many wide open looks for Explorers
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No blocking out again! Ugh!
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Please teach them not to leave the ground on defense if the offensive player hasn't picked up the dribble.
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Are they playing with a wider rim?
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It’s raining 3s, but unfortunately for both teams. Team record for 3s in jeopardy?
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Tough call for LaSalle - looked like a charge plus we got continuation
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Offense looks great. I guess that is what shooting 8-11 from the 3 does. Don't even mind the 4 turnovers, as we have a whopping (uncharacteristic) 9 assists on 11 made baskets.
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Hunter Dean bails out some bad Bamisile defense.
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There you have the good, the bad and the ugly from Freeman.
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Got to be concerned. We have shot 9-12 from the 3 and are only up by 2. Not sure I agree with Kerr that this is a "key a-10 matchup'
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Mr. Lindo up to 3 turnovers already. Last one was just terrible. Give La Salle another 2.
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Team record for 3s in a game is 16 and we already have 9.