Winnable game if they come out strong. Another slow start or lack of a halftime adjustment and we could be in Trouble

We've been shooting 45% from three-point range in the last four games (we're still only number 242 in the country in that regard).  UMass is relatively lenient in letting opponents take shots from three so if we keep it up, we should have a chance to score plenty of points.

On the other hand, UMass shoots 40% from three for the season (#6 in the country and a couple of spots behind Davidson) has has a pretty efficient offense so their game plan is to outscore you without relying too much on defense.

Similar game to Davidson, but as GW0509 said, without having to deal with the bigs.

UMass forum game thread

Last edited by BM (2/08/2022 10:52 am)

Our record is good against UMASS and can't imagine we can be abused inside as much as last game.
  But another question from last game is what happened to Daniel Nixon, listed at 6'7 225? Couldn't he provide a little bulk against a big guy/give a foul for a minute or several, if he is on the bench?
  We are short on scholarship players.
Looks like Nixon last played 2 min against Dayton Jan. 8th. Are we redshirting him--and even so, would he be able to play a little bit more limited minutes than a total of 6 min. this year?
   His official GW Sports bio says Nixon  "chose GW over multiple offers, including Georgetown, Iowa, Ole Miss and Wake Forest ..."
  Hope whatever is preventing Daniel from playing is overcome, for our sake and his 

UMass Minutemen

Date/Time: Wednesday February 9th @ 7:00 PM ET at The Mullins Center in Amherst, MA.
TV: NESN / ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 107th (KenPom), 123rd (Bart Torvik), 121st (CBS), 135th (SI)
2020-21 Record: 8-7, 6-4 (T-4th in A10) Yeah...the scheduling imbalance was crazy last season.
2021-22 Projected Record: 14-16, 7-11 (T-8th in A10) This doesn't really mean much, BT has a 5 way tie for 8th currently (hope we're on the better side of that by the end of the year!)

Coach: Matt McCall, 46-65 in four seasons at UMass. It seems like there's a decent chance McCall does not make it past this season with the Minutemen (rough season for the New England A10 coaches, what the hell happened to URI??). At the very least, McCall has shown "an upward trajectory" as the Minutemen have gone from 13th to tied for 12th to tied for 8th to T-4th last season, although they certainly benefitted from an imbalanced schedule last year. It seems unlikely that he'll be able to keep that going this year. Prior to his tenure at UMass, McCall spent two seasons at Chattanooga, where he led the Mocs to two successful seasons, winning 48 games with an impressive 73% win percentage. I think that proves that there's no guarantee of succeeding in the A10 despite winning at a lower league. On a side note, Lamont Paris has done an excellent job at Chattanooga this year, as the Mocs are 20-5 and #68 on KenPom. They have a veteran team and even defeated VCU earlier in the year. I doubt UMass goes to the same school again for a new coach but Paris is definitely deserving of a promotion. The SoCon is a lot of fun to watch when A10 basketball isn't on. Great offenses, even if the defense is inconsistent from Chattanooga to Furman to VMI. Prior to becoming head coach, McCall spent nine years in Florida (his home state) between two schools: Florida (2 years as director of basketball operations, 4 as assistant) and Florida Atlantic.

Head-to-Head: 44-29, and we are currently on an eight game win streak, which has to be the longest active win streak against any A10 team given our recent mediocrity. We pretty much led wire-to-wire in the last matchup during the 2019-20 season. Armel led the way with 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists, while Maceo had 20 points (with 4 threes made) and JNJ had 14 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. Jack in particular loved playing the Minutemen, as he nearly averaged 20 ppg in the last three matchups (and led Buffalo with 22 against Eastern Michigan today!). I'm sure UMass is looking forward to not seeing him tomorrow. It was a good day for the offense, as we shot 51% from the field, 47% from distance, and 95% (18-19) from the free throw line. UMass on the other hand had a tough time getting anything going, as they only shot 36% from the field, 21% from 3, and 55% from the line. Hope we guard the three point line as well tomorrow.

Last season's home game against UMass was not played due to the attack on the US Capitol. In a season filled with craziness, the fact that a game got canceled for something that wasn't because of COVID was wild in itself. This is a good read from the Post, and I'm glad that both teams stayed safe that day.

Offensive Efficiency: 33rd (KenPom), 52nd (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 333rd (KenPom), 334th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 90th (KenPom), 84th (Bart Torvik)
^^All of this means yay for UMass overs!!
Returning Minutes: 53.8% (226th in country)

Key Returning Players:
Noah Fernandes (Sophomore; Mattapoisett, MA) 11.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.6 SPG; 43% FG, 39% 3-PT, 81% FT
Javohn Garcia (Freshman; Columbus, OH) 10.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.5 SPG; 44% FG, 33% 3-PT, 76% FT
TJ Weeks Jr. (RS Freshman; Warwick, RI) 9.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.1 APG; 37% FG, 30% 3-PT, 72% FT

Key Losses:
Tre Mitchell (Transferred to Texas; Pittsburgh, PA) 18.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.5 BPG; 52% FG, 38% 3-PT, 77% FT
Carl Pierre (Transferred to Rice; Boston, MA) 12.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.6 APG; 36% FG, 33% 3-PT, 71% FT
Ronnie DeGray III (Transferred to Missouri; Parker, CO) 8.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.4 APG; 54% FG, 37% 3-PT, 61% FT

Comments:
UMass fans entered last season with the expectation that teams around the A10 would start taking them seriously. The boys from Amherst were picked a modest 8th in the league, but with Tre Mitchell returning for his sophomore campaign the sky was the limit. With the addition of some strong complementary pieces, the Woodstock Academy Minutemen had the pieces to certainly make noise come conference tournament time.

COVID killed any chance of UMass reaching that potential ceiling. The Minutemen did not play the entirety of November and were ultimately only able to play three OOC games that were sandwiched between a bunch of A10 opponents. The lack of tune-up games certainly made things tough, and UMass ended the year losing three of their final four games. They basically played only half a season due to COVID, and their 10 total conference games played ranked second fewest in the league (only we played fewer).

Not to say they had a say in the matter, but an altered schedule due to COVID actually helped UMass go 6-4 in the A10. On the surface, contending for a double-bye is a resounding success. Unfortunately, looking a bit closer those six wins were against La Salle (2x), Fordham (2x), and URI (2x), and the more I've watched Rhode Island play the past two seasons the less I'm convinced that they are considered a good win in conference (even though they're undoubtedly talented). UMass lost three matchups against Richmond and SLU (the better teams in the league) all by double digits and managed to avoid Bonaventure and VCU.

Despite not qualifying for any postseason tournament in March, there was a lot of returning production on paper to make the case that UMass could finish higher this season. Those hopes were crashed almost immediately after UMass's season ended as Mitchell opted to take his talents to Austin and assistant coach Tony Bergeron was bought out of his contract by the AD. Longtime veteran Carl Pierre, who appeared in over 100 career games for UMass, also left for The Lone Star State in the offseason. The whole Bergeron saga that played off the court was wild, but UMass probably made the right decision to move on from him, even if that meant their star was going to transfer. I assumed Mitchell was going to go where Bergeron was given a job, but to my knowledge he doesn't have a position at Texas. It's just not been smooth sailing since McCall took the UMass Job. Just a couple seasons prior, he relieved his entire staff. Perhaps the notion coming into the 2021-22 season is that fewer headaches off the court will lead to better chemistry on the court.

While McCall went to work in the transfer portal during the offseason as expected, he was only able to patch a big hole in the frontcourt. Replacing Mitchell was an impossible task, but the identity of this year's team is a stark contrast to life with Tre down low. It's all about the backcourt depth on this UMass squad, but the large disparity between their offensive and defensive efficiency has to be noted. The A10 is home to a number of such teams - Davidson and VCU come to mind, but the Minutemen are interested in how many shots they can get up (and make) in a minute while the other end gets neglected. I'm sure there have been plenty of profitable bets by taking the over in UMass games this season because the defense is nowhere to be found when they take the floor.

The Minutemen are the only team that gives up more points in conference play than us. While their offense has been good for the season, their field goal percentage in A10 play has not been good. They are one of two teams shooting under 40% from the field (along with Fordham) but allow opponents to shoot over 48% from the floor on the other end. UMass does shoot 39% from three so far in A10 play (3rd in A10) but that seems to play into our strengths as we are the 4th best 3 PT defensive team in conference. They have benefitted from an advantage at the FT line, as they are shooting 79% from the line (2nd best) but A10 opponents they have faced have shot a league worst 66%, a disparity that is sure to narrow as they play more games in conference.

UMass had a solid trio in the backcourt returning to begin the season in Wichita State transfer Noah Fernandes, Buckeye State native Javohn Garcia, and redshirt freshman TJ Weeks.

Fernandes elected to return home last season after a trying season in Wichita (he coughed the ball up at an alarming rate in his first year). A more consistent (and guaranteed) role definitely seems to have helped. He leads the team in scoring at nearly 16 ppg, doubles as a strong defender, and is currently 5th in the A10 in assists per game. Fernandes is one of their strong shooters, as he's over 40% from deep on the year. He missed a few games in conference due to a concussion, but returned in their last game against URI.

Garcia is an equally capable shooter from distance (41%), but has definitely regressed from last season. He has slipped defensively, and has also moved the ball less in the halfcourt to keep defenses honest. Garcia looks to drive to the hoop with every opportunity he gets.

Weeks had a promising first year at UMass two years back where he began the year shooting over 48%, but an untimely injury caused him to miss the rest of the year. Weeks is also a very capable shooter who competes on the glass. His dad was a four year player at UMass (scored 1,000 points and took the Minutemen to the NCAA tournament every year he played).

McCall wasn't satisfied with those three at guard so he picked up a pair of Kellys in Rich Kelly (Boston College/Quinnipiac) and CJ Kelly (Albany/Norfolk State) from the portal. Both are strong shooters and complementary playmakers - Rich adds more by way of passing, while CJ adds more rebounding. (Rich) Kelly in particular is absolutely deadly from deep having made 51 threes at nearly 51%, the best percentage in the A10.

Kolton Mitchell may see some spot minutes as a capable backup to the guards above. Cairo McCrory played a key role last season but has been sidelined for much of the year due to injury. Fellow returner Preston Santos stepped away from the team for an extended time and has hardly played this season. We better have our three point defense clamping down the perimeter because UMass is shooting nearly 40% from three as a team. They have five players who have made over 30 for the year. It helps that we have already faced Davidson who has the fourth best mark in the country, but UMass is not that much behind them at 7th in the nation.

Up front, McCall added Penn State transfer Trent Buttrick and Montana/San Jose State transfer Michael Steadman. Buttrick provides some much needed balance down low. He's a decent rebounder/passer but not a nightmare matchup by any means. Buttrick is definitely more of a stretch forward, having taken nearly half of his attempts from three (35% shooter). Steadman on the other hand is solely focused on operating in the post which is certainly an anomaly on this UMass team. He knows his role when his number is called: score down low and focus on cleaning up the glass.

Behind them is D2 Southern Connecticut State (by way of James Madison) transfer Greg Jones and second year Dyondre Dominguez. Jones is another stretch forward who can shoot the ball (43%) and rebound. Dominguez has been fairly inefficient offensively but does have some potential on the defensive end due to his length/athleticism. Neither Jones nor Dominguez saw significant time in their last game against URI. Key returner from last season Dibaji Walker (who came to UMass from Cleveland State) suffered a leg injury in December and will miss the rest of the year.

This is definitely a team we match up well with on paper although we do have to face the Minutemen on the road. Given the way our offense has been moving recently I don't worry too much on that end as long as our ball movement keeps up. I don't think the 13 made threes will continue so I hope we emphasize the post more. UMass isn't exactly deep (or menacing) down low so some early foul trouble might work in our favor. There is no real rim protector on their team, so we should be able to get to the hoop/line. If we can defend the three point line competently, we can certainly hang with the Minutemen.

Projected Score: UMass 82, GW 75. 26% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 21.1% chance at a W to even our A10 record at 5-5. UMass opens as a 7.5 point home favorite.
 

It's umASS. Please use proper typography.
 

Not to give away any major trade secrets, but if I'm coaching UMASS, I'd try to win this game by getting to the line and scoring in the paint as opposed to by taking three point shots.  Davidson outscored GW 34-22 in the paint and 16-10 from the foul line.  Nobody in the conference attempts more three point shots per game than UMASS and St. Joe's.  SJU outscored GW 46-36 in the paint and 10-4 at the line.  We are very good at defending the 3 (2nd best in the conference behind VCU) because as simple as this sounds, we are able to do it.  The same can not be said for keeping guys from scoring in the lane.

Bishop
Adams
Bamisile
Samuels
Dean

Brayon looked suited up on Instagram so JC deciding to bring him off the bench tonight

Too much dribbling, not enough passing.

Early thoughts: Is umASS not allowing fans? If not, then umASS spent waaaay too much money on a fancy arena that even folks in Amherst are too smart to walk in to if this is the team being foisted on them.
Shots not falling early, had to happen sometime.
What is that rorschach test on the court?
Cannot defend the fast break by turning your back on the guy with the ball. Just sayin´.