Take Dayton on the spread. This sadly won't be another UMASS situation. This team is simply better in all aspects. And I don't trust JC to not get massively outcoached

Dayton Flyers (Round 2)

Preview

Date/Time: Saturday February 12th @ 2:00 PM ET at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
TV: Spectrum News 1 / ESPN+
2021-22 Projected Record: 21-10, 13-5 (3rd in A10)

Offensive Efficiency: 84th (KenPom), 74th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 42nd (KenPom), 35th (Bart Torvik)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 97th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 50th
Rim & 3 Rate: 85% (73rd in country)
Pace: 339th (KenPom), 339th (Bart Torvik)

Projected Starting Rotation:
DaRon Holmes III (Freshman; Goodyear, AZ) 11.5 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 2.5 BPG; 65% FG, 17% 3-PT, 57% FT
       Game 1 vs. GW: 12 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks; 6-8 FG in 29 minutes.

Toumani Camara (Sophomore; Brussels, Belgium) 10.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.8 APG; 49% FG, 27% 3-PT, 62% FT
       Game 1 vs. GW: 14 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks; 7-10 FG, 0-1 FT in 23 minutes.

Malachi Smith (Freshman; Bronx, NY) 9.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.9 SPG; 42% FG, 36% 3-PT, 79% FT
       Game 1 vs. GW: 13 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals; 6-12 FG, 1-3 3-PT in 33 minutes.

Kobe Elvis (Freshman; Brampton, Canada) 9 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.8 APG; 49% FG, 45% 3-PT, 72% FT
       Game 1 vs. GW: 5 points, 2 rebounds, 5 assists; 2-3 FG, 1-2 3-PT in 19 minutes.

RJ Blakney (Freshman; Baltimore, MD) 6 PPG, 3.2 RPG; 45% FG, 35% 3-PT, 67% FT
       Game 1 vs. GW: 5 points; 2-3 FG, 1-2 3-PT in 13 minutes.

Projected Off the Bench Rotation:
Elijah Weaver (Junior; Cocoa, FL) 7.3 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 1.8 APG; 47% FG, 35% 3-PT, 83% FT
       Game 1 vs. GW: 12 points, 3 assists, 3 steals; 5-7 FG, 2-3 3-PT in 20 minutes.

Koby Brea (Freshman; Washington Heights, NY) 6.7 PPG, 2.6 RPG; 40% FG, 38% 3-PT, 67% FT
       Game 1 vs. GW: 8 points, 3 rebounds; 3-8 FG, 2-5 3-PT in 22 minutes.

Mustapha Amzil (Freshman; Helsinki, Finland) 5.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG; 40% FG, 28% 3-PT, 69% FT
       Game 1 vs. GW: 10 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists; 4-6 FG, 1-1 3-PT, 1-1 FT in 23 minutes.

Moulaye Sissoko (Freshman; Bamako, Mali) 2.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG; 62% FG, 78% FT
       Game 1 vs. GW: 0 points, 2 rebounds; 0-2 FG in 11 minutes.

Team Conference Stats (in A10 play):
Rebounding Margin: +6.1 (1st in A10)
Scoring Defense: 56 PPG (1st in A10)
Combined Opponent Team Rebounds Per Game: 29.3 (2nd in A10)
Opponent Field Goal Percentage: 39.4% (2nd in A10)
Team Field Goal Percentage: 46.8% (2nd in A10)
Team 3-Point FG Percentage: 38.7% (3rd in A10)
Assists Per Game: 14.45 (4th in A10)
Blocked Shots Per Game: 4.27 (4th in A10)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.22 (5th in A10)
Combined Team Rebounds Per Game: 35.4 (6th in A10)
Opponent 3-Point FG Percentage: 33.8% (6th in A10)
Steals Per Game: 6.64 (6th in A10)
Team Defensive Rebounds Per Game: 25.2 (6th in A10)
Team Offensive Rebounds Per Game: 10.2 (6th in A10)
Turnover Margin: +1 (6th in A10)
3-Point FGs Made Per Game: 6.5 (10th in A10)
Scoring Offense: 66.5 PPG (11th in A10)
Team FT Percentage: 65.2% (13th in A10)
Opponent FT Percentage: 78.9% (14th in A10)

As you can see above, Dayton is good at almost everything. Their slow tempo plays a role in the lower scoring offense ranking. If there is a single thing that has killed them, it's the disparity at the FT line (basically the anti-UMass). They should have some "positive luck" with the opponent FT percentage moving forward. Hopefully we foul and force them to earn points from the line wherever/whenever we can.

The most concerning statistics for us are rebounding margin, scoring defense, opponent FG percentage. Dayton is first in rebounding margin, and we are last. The difference between the two teams is a ridiculous 13.5 boards, which on paper would give the Flyers a huge advantage. Dayton gives up 18 fewer points per game (partly due to tempo, but still pretty significant) and teams shoot 7% worse against their defense than against our defense. Our offense has improved quite a bit from the first matchup, so hopefully the only real concern is the rebounds tomorrow. I just don't know how we offset that big of a deficit.

Individual Conference Stats (in A10 play):

Scoring:
DaRon Holmes II - 12.7 ppg (21st in A10) -> there are no Flyers in the top 20 in scoring. They don't put up a ton of points, but are balanced.

Rebounding:
DaRon Holmes II - 7.2 rpg (13th in A10)
Toumani Camara - 6 rpg (19th in A10)

Field Goal Percentage:
DaRon Holmes II - 64.4% (1st in A10) - keeping him from scoring inside is a definite concern tomorrow.
Kobe Elvis - 52.7% (12th in A10)
Toumani Camara - 48% (21st in A10)

3-PT Field Goal Percentage:
Kobe Elvis - 55% (1st in A10)
Koby Brea - 43.9% (11th in A10)

Free Throw Percentage:
Malachi Smith - 78.6% (13th in A10) -> aka the only player not to foul tomorrow.

3-PT Field Goals Per Game:
Kobe Elvis - 2 (17th in A10)

Assists:
Malachi Smith - 5.2 apg (6th in A10)

Blocked Shots:
DaRon Holmes II - 2.7 bpg (2nd in A10)
Toumani Camara - 0.7 bpg (19th in A10)

Steals:
Malachi Smith - 1.7 spg (10th in A10)

Haslametrics Preview:

G. WASHINGTON IN POSSESSION:
The Dayton defense is very likely going to create all kinds of problems for the G. Washington offense. Dayton is currently 30th in the country in defensive efficiency, while G. Washington nationally comes in at #248 in offensive efficiency.

SHOT SELECTION: The G. Washington offense demonstrates a balance of outside and inside attempts, while the Dayton defense typically allows a few more chances from the perimeter than from the paint. Against the Dayton defense, this site projects that the shot makeup of the G. Washington offense will be 37.4% three-pointers (0.2% below the D1 average), 32.2% mid-range jumpers (4.0% above the D1 average), and 30.5% near-proximity twos (3.8% below the D1 average).

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: G. Washington has been rather mediocre (by NCAA standards) in field goal percentage, rated 209th nationally in that category this year. The Dayton defense, meanwhile, sports one of college basketball's better defensive field goal percentages, ranking 55th in the country in that category. On this end of the court, the G. Washington offense has a notable advantage in near-proximity shooting, while the Dayton defense has the edge in both three-point shooting and mid-range shooting. This site expects G. Washington to shoot 31.1% from three (3.2% below the D1 average), 29.8% from the mid-range (8.7% below the D1 average), 59.7% from near-proximity locations (1.5% above the D1 average), and 39.4% overall (4.2% below the D1 average).

REBOUNDING: Dayton will very likely win the rebound battle on this end of the court. G. Washington appears to be a unit that is below-average by NCAA standards on the offensive glass. When it comes to converting second-chance opportunities, they're unremarkable, coming in at #165 nationally in our ratings there. The opposition here, Dayton, will rarely surrender second chances, and they're likewise top-notch in the category of defensive second-chance conversion rate (ranked #24 in the country there).

TURNOVERS: The Dayton defense has a small advantage over the G. Washington offense in the turnover battle on this end. When in possession, G. Washington isn't the sloppiest team in the world, but they've definitely got some ball-security issues. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly inadequate, as the team places 321st in the nation in that category. Meanwhile, the Dayton defense demonstrates fairly balanced pressure and shouldn't be considered overly conservative or aggressive.

FREE THROWS: G. Washington will very likely struggle to get to the free throw line in this matchup. They're usually a team that won't get to the charity stripe very often (nationally ranked #299 in free throw attempt rate), and they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (69.5%, 238th in the country). Meanwhile, the Dayton D has been excellent at minimizing opponents' free throw opportunities, ranking 24th in the NCAA in defensive free throw attempt rate.

DAYTON IN POSSESSION:
The Dayton offense most definitely should have the upper hand on the G. Washington defense in this matchup. The Dayton offense is ranked #84 in Division I, while G. Washington comes in nationally at #195 on defense.

SHOT SELECTION: The shot preferences of these two teams are somewhat similar on this end of the floor. The Dayton offense leans slightly in favor of an inside attack, while the G. Washington defense similarly tends to allow several more chances from inside the paint. Against the G. Washington defense, this site forecasts that the shot breakdown of the Dayton offense will be 31.3% three-pointers (6.3% below the D1 average), 23.0% mid-range jumpers (5.2% below the D1 average), and 45.7% near-proximity twos (11.5% above the D1 average).

SHOOTING PERCENTAGE: Dayton is one of the best ball-clubs in the country when it comes to floor shooting, nationally rated 24th in overall field goal conversion rate. Meanwhile, the G. Washington defense has been unexceptional in defensive field goal percentage, rated 189th nationally in that category. On this end of the court, the Dayton offense has the ratings advantage in near-proximity shooting, the G. Washington defense has the edge in mid-range shooting, while the two units rate fairly evenly in three-point shooting. We expect Dayton to shoot 34.0% from behind the arc (0.3% below the D1 average), 36.1% from mid-range locations (2.3% below the D1 average), 65.2% from near-proximity (7.0% above the D1 average), and 48.7% overall (5.1% above the D1 average).

REBOUNDING: Dayton appears to hold a significant rebounding edge on this end of the court. Dayton seems to be a bit better than the D1 norm when it comes to offensive rebounding. Additionally, they are very solid at converting their second chance opportunities, ranking 42nd nationally in that category. Their opponent in this matchup, G. Washington, is relatively mediocre when it comes to eliminating second-chance opportunities, and they likewise rate right around the average in defensive second-chance conversion percentage (ranked #215 in that category).

TURNOVERS: The Dayton offense should keep the ball fairly secure here against the G. Washington defense. Offensively, Dayton exemplifies ball-security to a degree slightly superior to the average NCAA team. Their rating for potential quick points allowed off steals is particularly solid, as the squad places 61st in the country in that category. As for the opposition, the G. Washington D is neither aggressive nor conservative from a turnovers perspective.

FREE THROWS: This looks to be somewhat of a stalemate. Dayton is a team that obtains a fairly average number of chances from the charity stripe (168th in the country in free throw attempt rate), though they're a below-average unit at converting their foul shots (68.5%, ranked #266 in Division I). As for the opposition, the G. Washington D is pretty average in defensive free throw attempt rate, ranking 166th in the country in that category.

THE X-FACTORS:
PACE: Expect a slightly slower tempo here when these two ball-clubs meet. G. Washington (150th nationally in game pace) likes a fairly average tempo, but Dayton (325th) would rather maintain a slower pace.

AWAY/HOME COURT: Dayton may fail to meet expectations here, as their efforts at home have been, on average, far inferior to their performances away from home.

MOMENTUM: Both teams come into this contest playing some of their best basketball this year. G. Washington is 39th in the country in positive momentum, while Dayton currently ranks 71st.

CONSISTENCY: Dayton is one of Division I's more erratic squads, ranking 295th in the country in consistency. G. Washington places closer to the middle of the pack in this category.

Projected Score: Dayton 73, GW 57. 6% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 5.2% chance to go over .500 in conference play. The Flyers open as a 14.5 point home favorite.
 

Aside from the Carl Elliot shot how many times has GW won at Dayton? 2?

A10 refs all want to screw Lindo?! Why?

If the game plan was to concede the wide opened 3 to Dayton, they may want to thinking about changing that.

Yes, some players have not shown up to play today. Someone doesn't want to get back and play defense. 

Will someone teach Brown how to go up strong for a layup.

Last edited by Long Suffering Fan (2/12/2022 2:23 pm)

Looks like the old GW showed up.

More likely, this is the real GW vs a quality opponant.