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Next up, Dukes, still on the road. 3rd straight road game for GW.
Should be a roughly even line on the road.
Does GW make it 4 wins in the last 6 games??
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Body not even cold yet.
Dayton still going on.
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Losing to Duquesne would be more of an indictment on the team than a 30 point loss to Dayton. Duquesne is objectively awful and Dambrot is probably going to get fired.
Remember when people where mad that we didn't hire him?
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Dambrot has done a great job for the Dukes, 10-8, 11-7 and 7-7 in league play the last years, until this season.
Also won 16 games then 19 games then 21 games, peaking at 21-9 in March 2020.
Fantastic job at Akron for many, many years too.
GW though appears to be trending up, whereas things look down-trending for the Dukes
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Almost a must win game. Not many more chances to try to sniff .500 let alone our 10th win. Still play 2 better teams (URI, RICH), A toss up (GMU) And 3 should wins but not guarenteed (DUKES, DUKES, FORD) realistically 3-3 isn't a stretch. In fact it should be the minimum goal. Another sub 15 win season doesn't spark hope on JC. His seat hasn't cooled yet
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GW0509 wrote:
Losing to Duquesne would be more of an indictment on the team than a 30 point loss to Dayton. Duquesne is objectively awful and Dambrot is probably going to get fired.
Remember when people where mad that we didn't hire him?
This is really a big problem. I understand that the notion of firing Dambrot is a speculative one at this point but it's a ridiculous one IMO. The guy was very successful at Akron, and was 18 games over .500 at Duquesne before the season started. Three of the Dukes' best players left the program close to or upon his arrival and he still turned them into a winning program. There has admittedly been a mass exodus of Dambrot's recruits which has resulted in this rather poor season. Now, if there's some justifiable factor that caused all these players to leave, then maybe you cut ties with him for that reason. But if you're thinking about getting rid of him because shit has hit the fan during this one season, I would start by asking who the better coaching option is to take over? At the very least, you owe it to this guy to bring in a new class or two and see if he can build things back up. (Staying away from Build Back Better.)
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Skittles wrote:
Almost a must win game. Not many more chances to try to sniff .500 let alone our 10th win. Still play 2 better teams (URI, RICH), A toss up (GMU) And 3 should wins but not guarenteed (DUKES, DUKES, FORD) realistically 3-3 isn't a stretch. In fact it should be the minimum goal. Another sub 15 win season doesn't spark hope on JC. His seat hasn't cooled yet
If GW can get to 9-8 in the league (I presume the Bonnies game will not be made up) then there is definite momentum heading into next year. To get to 9-8 the recipe is fairly simple. You have to sweep Duquesne, split with URI/Richmond at home and split with Mason/Fordham on road. That means 4-2. Even at 3-3 things are still much more positive then it looked at 2-8. Obviously, regardless, JC needs to keep improving the talent on the roster.
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I had mentioned in another thread that Feb. 24 is a logical day for a make-up game. Am wondering if this is also a possibility: The Conference is waiting to make sure as best it can that GW is not in the bottom 4. Should that be the case, then SBU comes to DC early and makes up the game on Tuesday, March 8 with both teams not playing in the tournament until the 10th at the earliest. I don't think this would happen if we were in the bottom 4 and if this is unknown until the final regular season weekend, they probably could not pull it off. With SBU being the favorite, I would think it would be in their best interests to play the game.
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Whatever happens, we need to have a good OOC record in the future, like GW used to and successful teams do, especially given the teams we played and lost to in recent years.
We can't wait until midleague play to find ourselves, unless we plan on winning the A-10 tournament regularly. Need to be ready as any other normal team on Day 1. Next year should be postseason play and not the CBI.
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jf wrote:
Whatever happens, we need to have a good OOC record in the future, like GW used to and successful teams do, especially given the teams we played and lost to in recent years.
We can't wait until midleague play to find ourselves, unless we plan on winning the A-10 tournament regularly. Need to be ready as any other normal team on Day 1. Next year should be postseason play and not the CBI.
I agree with the first part of this, that JC and staff need to get rid of their low major mindset of completely disregarding results in the OOC but I have to laugh at “next year should be postseason play and not the CBI” given that it typically requires us to field one of our all-time teams to sniff a non-CBI post season. 2015-2016 had three NBA players on it and we only barely made the NIT as a 4 seed. We all know how it ended but that team nearly ended up in the CBI.
In order to make the NIT next year we probably need to win 23+ games and win 13-14 games in conference. I mean, I’m all for lofty goals but that is a tough standard to place on any team in the A-10.
The only way I see that happening is keeping the core of Bishop, Bamisile, and Freeman intact and then adding two “Mo Creeks” in the front court.
Last edited by GW0509 (2/14/2022 1:20 pm)
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The 15-16 team just missed the NCAA. a win against St Joe's would have made us very much so a bubble team. We were absolutely an NIT+ team that 4 seed was a joke we should've been a 1 seed or 2 at worst and the results show this. Let's not get too wild the cbi was like 4 losses away maybe even 5
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Duquesne Dukes
Date/Time: Wednesday February 16th @ 7:30 PM ET at UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse (formerly AJ Palumbo Center) in Pittsburgh, PA. The arena seats 3,500 people. This game was originally scheduled to be played on 1/5.
TV: ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 181st (KenPom), 211th (Bart Torvik), 161st (CBS), 158th (SI)
2020-21 Record: 9-9, 7-7 (9th in A10)
2021-22 Projected Record: 8-21, 3-14 (14th in A10)
Coach: Keith Dambrot, 65-47 in four seasons at Duquesne. Prior to arriving in Pittsburgh, Dambrot spent 15 seasons as head coach in the MAC. 13 of those were spent coaching his hometown team/alma mater Akron Zips, where he had a ton of success. He won 71% of conference games, and the Zips made a postseason tournament 10 out of 13 seasons. On the surface, one would think it's crazy that Dambrot would leave his NE Ohio roots when he was a consistent winner, but it's worth noting that only 3 of those 10 postseason appearances were at the big dance. He had to settle for the NIT despite Akron finishing first in the MAC in his last two years coaching there. Such is life in one-bid leagues. I don't blame Dambrot for departing for the A10 where he would have a chance at an at-large bid and the regular season success wouldn't be wasted. Before Akron, Dambrot spent two seasons at Central Michigan and four additional years coaching at the D2 level at Ashland and Tiffin. In between, he coached three years at St. Vincent-St. Mary's HS (LeBron's school) and was an assistant for three years at another MAC school, Eastern Michigan. His dad Sid played at Duquesne in the 50s when the Dukes were #1 in the nation which likely played a big role in him deciding to coach there. Interestingly, Dambrot actually played baseball at Akron and not basketball - he was a third baseman.
Head-to-Head: 52-32. We split the two meetings that took place during the 2020-21 season. Due to COVID, these games were played back-to-back on the second and third of January (and both were played at home). The statistics from CBB last season showed that it was very tough to sweep a team in a back-to-back game scenario which added to the overall wildness that was last season. One team would be blown out in game 1 only to come out on top in game 2. That was the case during our Duquesne series. Game 1 was pretty much all Duquesne as they won 75-63. Bishop (21 points), Battle (17 points), and Moyer (14 points, 11 rebounds) accounted for the majority of points. Game 2 was a whole different story. We came out firing with 44 first half points, but Duquesne stormed a second half comeback. Ultimately, Bishop's three made the difference. There might have been a slight push off to get Bishop more space on that play, but we'll just ignore that. Unsurprisingly, the same three players finished in double figures: Battle (29 points, 6 made threes, 7 rebounds), Bishop (16 points, 7 assists), and Moyer (14 points, 15 rebounds). Man it would have been big had Matt returned for the extra COVID year looking back now but glad to see that he's doing well professionally.
Offensive Efficiency: 245th (KenPom), 224th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 258th (KenPom), 257th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 268th (KenPom), 260th (Bart Torvik)
Returning Minutes: 33% (327th in country)
Key Returning Players:
None. Is that the first time I've said that in a preview this season? Yikes! Probably explains a lot of their struggles this year.
Key Losses:
Marcus Weathers (Transferred to SMU; Overland Park, KS) 15.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.5 APG; 48% FG, 31% 3-PT, 64% FT
Michael Hughes (Graduated; Kansas City, MO) 10.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1 SPG, 1.6 BPG; 51% FG, 18% 3-PT, 63% FT
Tavian Dunn-Martin (Transferred to Florida Gulf Coast; Huntington, WV) 10.2 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1 SPG; 35% FG, 30% 3-PT, 76% FT
Chad Baker-Mazara (Transferred to San Diego State; Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic) 9.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1 SPG; 44% FG, 42% 3-PT, 81% FT
Sincere Carry (Transferred to Kent State; Solon, OH) 9 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.6 SPG; 37% FG, 33% 3-PT, 52% FT - of course we still ended up seeing him anyways when we played the Golden Flashes earlier this year and he had 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists against us. The Dukes surely could have used him this year.
Comments:
It was another steady but unspectacular campaign for the Dukes in 2020-21. Given the state of GW basketball since Dambrot took over at Duquesne, I'm sure all of us would take four straight seasons avoiding the pillow fight, even if Dambrot's teams have been high floor/low ceiling. To be fair, I'm not sure any coach could get Duquesne to the top of the league. Despite the historical success, the Dukes have won 10+ games in conference just three times in the past 20 years. Dambrot has accounted for two of those three in his four years and he also has one 20+ win season at Duquesne, something that has only been done one other time in the past 40 years. The ultimate goal of course is to always reach the NCAA tournament, but Duquesne hasn't done that since the 1976-77 season. All of this is to say despite the tough season so far, this is my long-winded way of saying Dambrot should be given another year to prove himself. I'm not sure who would do a better job at Duquesne right now.
Given the A10 was the second hardest hit conference by COVID last season (after the MAAC) it shouldn't be a surprise that Duquesne was hit pretty hard and missed a number of games last season. The Dukes played only two games OOC, which ended up being the only two games they played until January (starting with the doubleheader against us). Despite that, Duquesne played strongly in conference, going a respectable 7-7 against a reasonably tough slate that featured a win against Dayton on Groundhog Day.
Unfortunately, I'm not sure a .500 conference finish was the best ending for the trio of Duquesne seniors (Marcus Weathers, Michael Hughes, and Tavian Dunn-Martin). While COVID afforded all seniors to return for an extra year, it was interesting that none of the three elected to come back to Duquesne this year. Two of them are still playing college basketball - Weathers reunited with his brother at SMU, trying to get the Mustangs an at-large bid (they are currently on the bubble but the Houston win certainly helped recently), while Dunn-Martin is the floor general for the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, a team that certainly has enough firepower to be a dark horse in the Atlantic Sun tournament.
Anyways, it was reportedly a mutual decision between Dambrot and the senior trio to move on, but I wonder if there was something more to that. Duquesne returned the fewest minutes of any team in the A10 this year. It's one thing for the seniors to move on, but losing other key pieces in Chad Baker-Mazara, Sincere Carry, and Lamar Norman (Western Michigan) is another. Journeyman Ryan Murphy also moved on. Even the once promising Maceo Austin left the team after taking a brief hiatus last season. GW is no stranger to roster turnover, but we've never had a season recently where we lost our top six scorers. That's a pretty big reset. Michael Hughes recently tweeted this, which definitely suggests something happened last season, but I'm not sure what.
Duquesne went 5-7 OOC this season playing a below average schedule. They suffered a four game losing streak early on. Three of those (Hofstra, Weber State, Colorado) are at least reasonably strong teams in their respective conferences, but the Dukes also fell to Northeastern, a team that is really struggling this year (surprising to me because they are usually pretty decent). A win against Bradley on a neutral site has aged pretty well, as well as their final game OOC contest against UC Irvine, a squad that is always a factor in the Big West. Unfortunately, leading up to that strong performance against UCI, Duquesne went 1-3 against Bowling Green, Marshall, DePaul, and New Hampshire who all rate similarly to us and are pretty mediocre overall. They won their first conference game against UMass, but have since lost 10 in a row. Outside a 1 point loss to Fordham, they haven't been particularly competitive in the other games. They seem to perform a bit better on the road than at home.
The only players who remained after the mass exodus were both freshmen last year in Tyson Acuff and Toby Okani (along with the infrequently used Mike Bekelja, Carry's bro). Okani showed promise as a versatile wing who could stretch the floor on offense and crash the glass on defense, while Acuff struggled a bit more after being thrust into a bigger role with the number of aforementioned defections mid-year. Both players are fixtures in the rotation this year but their efficiencies have switched this season. While Okani is shooting under 40% from the floor, Acuff leads the team in three point percentage at 45% with 22 made triples on the season. Both players contribute on the glass but don't do much else.
Dambrot went to work in the transfer portal to replace some of the lost production from last season and brought in Leon Ayers III (Mercer), Kevin Easley Jr. (TCU/Chattanooga), and Tre Williams (Indiana State). Ayers is one of those "high volume" scorers who isn't particularly efficient, but he adds complementary playmaking, rebounding, and strong on-ball defense. He is also the best free throw shooter on the team at 85%. Easley may be the most versatile player on the team. He can play several positions on the court and is the best rebounder on the team. Easley leads the team in three pointers made (30) at a 38% clip. He struggled in his lone season in the Big 12 but his stats this year more closely resemble his production in the SoCon. Williams is also a strong rebounder who can finish down low despite being undersized. He isn't afraid to shoot the three, but is only 7/43 on the year so we should be able to sag off him if he is lurking along the perimeter on offense. Duquesne doesn't block a lot of shots, but Williams ranks 5th in the league at 2.3 bpg. He is their worst free throw shooter at 55% which will be key should the game remain close down the stretch.
Duquesne has also been getting nice contributions from true freshmen Amir 'Primo' Spears and Jackie Johnson III. Spears leads the team in scoring in his first season of college basketball at 11.7 ppg. He has done a great job despite being asked to do a lot right away. Spears leads the team in assists at 2.8 apg but can struggle with turnovers (to be expected). He doubles as a strong defender as well, leading the team in steals. It always sucks when players get robbed from the A10 awards. Since Duquesne will likely finish at the bottom of the league, Spears will likely not get a lot of attention but he's done a great job so far and probably should get a spot on the all-freshman team. If he can improve his efficiency shooting, that's a great building block for Dambrot to build around. That may happen by default if Duquesne can add some more talent around him. Johnson has played more off the ball this season. He is a good shooter from distance at 38% and has made 28 on the year while converting 80% of his free throw attempts. Between Acuff, Johnson, and Easley, Duquesne does have a few guys capable of lighting it up from behind the arc.
Since forward Austin Rotroff suffered a foot injury a month ago (he is out 4-6 weeks) Mounir Hima has seen some action in his place. Hima is raw offensively but Duquesne fans are hoping to see him get more playing time down the stretch as one of the taller players on the team. Williams has done a good job defensively, but it has to be tough playing Okani, Easley, and Williams for significant stretches down low when all are undersized. If there was ever a game to get Hunter/Noel more involved, it would be this one from a height advantage alone.
Nothing is a sure thing, but as others have said this is the kind of game we need to win to improve our chances of avoiding the play-in game in a month. Hope the team comes out with better energy/focus than we did against Dayton and Ricky can build off Saturday's performance. Let's leave the isolation ball to the Dukes, who are far and away the worst passing team in conference. The next worst passing team in conference, Fordham, has averaged 4(!) more assists than the Dukes. That is the mark of a young team trying to find its way.
Projected Score: Duquesne 70, GW 66. 34% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 38.1% chance to even our record at 6-6 in A10 play. The Dukes open as a four point home favorite.
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Gwmayhem wrote:
With SBU being the favorite, I would think it would be in their best interests to play the game.
Unless beating us means they could get a bye in the A10 tourney, it would absolutely not be in their interest to play us. They have nothing to be gained from playing a sub-200 team at this point. It doesn’t help their NiT chances, and their NET rating would go down just from playing us unless they destroy us by like 30 (which they might), plus they probably would rather have rested legs going into the a10 tourney than another win over a sub200 team.
Also, it’s extremely unlikely, but after sweeping two games from SLU, they might have a very slim chance to play their way into at large consideration. If they win out (including a quad 1 road win at VCU) and get to thr A10 finals (beating, say, SLU and Davidson before losing to VCU or Dayton), then they would end the season at 23-8, but with a whopping 6 Quad 1 wins, which would likely be far more than any other bubble team. Right now, because of the slump following Lofton’s injury, they are way off the bubble, but they do appear to be getting hot and it’s not impossible for them to get back into the picture - in which case playing us could literally end their chances if they lose, while doing nothing to help them if they win.
I know this is way off topic, so I’ll add that I agree this is close to a must win game. The team needs to compete hard on defense and share the ball while being aggressive on offense. Would very much like to see us shake off the Dayton game and really clamp down on Duquesne.
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Free Quebec wrote:
The team needs to compete hard on defense and share the ball while being aggressive on offense. Would very much like to see us shake off the Dayton game and really clamp down on Duquesne.
The rare bright lights from the last game were some good minutes from Brown and Lindo. We need to resist early 3's as the game starts and have all the players play with more energy. Guys need to leave it on the floor.
The loses that we have suffer are displaying our lacking effort to go to the offensive glass. Against the Dukes, our bigs have to get early touches in the offense flow and they must resist an instinct to put up an immediate shot!! We need to take away the Dukes' legs. The goal should be to have consistent scoring possessions in the 2nd half. The wins that we have pulled off this season in league play are against the bottom teams and we get the W through consistent effort. The 3's are because we have worn out the opponents. That is why a steady diet of Adams, Lindy and Brown in the first half will set us up for a better result. IMHO.
Last edited by russianthistle (2/16/2022 10:10 am)
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Free Quebec wrote:
Gwmayhem wrote:
With SBU being the favorite, I would think it would be in their best interests to play the game.
Unless beating us means they could get a bye in the A10 tourney, it would absolutely not be in their interest to play us. They have nothing to be gained from playing a sub-200 team at this point. It doesn’t help their NiT chances, and their NET rating would go down just from playing us unless they destroy us by like 30 (which they might), plus they probably would rather have rested legs going into the a10 tourney than another win over a sub200 team.
Also, it’s extremely unlikely, but after sweeping two games from SLU, they might have a very slim chance to play their way into at large consideration. If they win out (including a quad 1 road win at VCU) and get to thr A10 finals (beating, say, SLU and Davidson before losing to VCU or Dayton), then they would end the season at 23-8, but with a whopping 6 Quad 1 wins, which would likely be far more than any other bubble team. Right now, because of the slump following Lofton’s injury, they are way off the bubble, but they do appear to be getting hot and it’s not impossible for them to get back into the picture - in which case playing us could literally end their chances if they lose, while doing nothing to help them if they win.
I know this is way off topic, so I’ll add that I agree this is close to a must win game. The team needs to compete hard on defense and share the ball while being aggressive on offense. Would very much like to see us shake off the Dayton game and really clamp down on Duquesne.
Am not going to argue advanced metrics with you FQ, just common sense. 22-8 is better than 21-8. 13-5 in the conference is better than 12-5. I would say that SBU's at large prognosis is very real. Lose one more at VCU and then in the A10 final, and my guess is that they'll be on the correct side of the bubble. Seems to me that win over GW might be very important to them. (Not to mention the possibility of a double bye which you did acknowledge.)
As for tonight's game, the theme ought to be "No Fucking Around." The two easiest remaining games on GW's schedule are tonight and at home against Duquesne. Lose either and you may as well have lost to Mason or URI. Wins like that would be negated. If this team does simply what it ought to do, it will avoid the bottom 4. But, that includes sweeping the down-in-the-dumps Dukes.
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We're playing a team that is 1-10 in conference, 5-17 overall--and we're the underdog?
Says a lot about where we are. Let's hope we climb out of this.
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The line is now down to 3 which basically accounts for the home court advantage. Based on the stats I’d say it’s a pure toss up. GW averages 1 pt more per game on offense but gives up 1 pt more per game on defense. Duquesne has more or less given up on the season so as long as we don’t mess around and stick to the plan of moving more on offense we should win our third road game of the season.
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Starting 5
Freeman
Bishop
Bamisile
Samuels
Dean
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Early thoughts:
JoeBam is in The Zone.
If anyone on the Duques bench is playing attention, every time down the court they will attack the low post knowing Dean cannot defend it.
I never thought I would get vertigo from the main camera angle at a basketball game, but tonight may prove me wrong.
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we look significantly better than them. In the first 6 minutes Freeman has blown by his man for a layup 4 times (missed 1 of them)