Too bad it looks like Harris won't be ready.  We need a lockdown defender on Sharp-shooter and GW target Nate Darling.

The Dude wrote:

I see Darling is pouring in the points this year.  
Anyone a little surprised we'd be favored? 

KenPom has them as a markedly better team than we are.

We are underdog on KenPom.  No idea what Vegas will day but probably it will be close.

Delaware Blue Hens

Date/Time: Saturday December 7th @ 4:00 PM at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC. Hoping for a better crowd on Saturday but as finals approach student turnout might not be great for games this month.
Record Last Year: 17-16, 8-10 (5th in the CAA)
Preseason Ranks: 257th (KenPom), 273rd (Bart Torvik), 231st (Sports Illustrated), 148th (CBS). Kudos to Norlander who seems to have seen Delaware's early success coming.
Projected Record: 23-8, 11-7 (T-3rd in the CAA)
Postseason Last Year: None.
Coaching Record: Martin Ingelsby, 44-55 in 3 seasons at Delaware. He has steadily improved each year (from 13 to 14 to 17 wins, with the Blue Hens also improving in conference from 9th to 7th to 5th).

All Time Record: 4-1. We have won the past four contests. There have been no meetings since 1997. 

Offensive Efficiency: 128th (KenPom), 108th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 204th (KenPom), 192nd (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 195th (KenPom), 254th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Ryan Allen (JR; Baltimore, MD) 16 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.3 apg; 41% FG, 37% 3-pt, 67% FT
Kevin Anderson (JR; Williamsport, PA) 10.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg; 39% FG, 32% 3-pt, 78% FT

Key Losses:
Eric Carter (Graduated; Jackson, NJ) 15.8 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 2.3 apg; 58% FG, 40% 3-pt, 74% FT
Ithiel Horton (Transferred to Pittsburgh; Jersey City, NJ) 13.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.6 apg; 43% FG, 41% 3-pt, 79% FT. Another transfer we missed out on in the offseason, but to be fair it was a long shot to land him anyways.

Comments:
Delaware was pretty much just like most teams in the CAA in 2018-19; the defensive end was merely a 30 second delay they had to wait out until they could get the ball back again and gun from anywhere on the court. In other words, they were looking to consistently win a shoot-off contest which had its ups and downs during the season. Last year, they stayed competitive in their season opener on the road against the Terrapins (only falling by 6) but also managed to lose to in-state rival Delaware State at home (which might have been the worst team in D1 last year; they seemed to have upgraded their talent a bit this year by MEAC standards with Dayton transfer John Crosby, and Chris Sodom has landed there after a brief JUCO stop) which best summed up their unsteady play.

Offensively, the Blue Hens ranked 31st in three point field goal percentage and did a good job taking care of the ball, but were a poor offensive rebounding team, ranking just 329th. The Blue Hens preferred to play most of their possessions in the halfcourt (ranking 8th in APL), with variations of pick-and-rolls and screens/cuts that usually ended with a three point attempt.  Defensively, they did a good job not fouling (45th nationally) but struggled to turn teams over (327th in steals, a dismal 347th in turnovers forced) and had a soft perimeter defense (310th in three point field goal defense percentage). Ingelsby played a lot of 2-3 zone with some man-to-man every now and then to change things up. Unfortunately for them, playing zone was a TERRIBLE idea in a league filled with shooters like CAA where they were constantly torched from deep.

Despite the losses of Carter and Horton (the latter was more of a loss offensively than defensively), Delaware has played well in an admittedly weak OOC schedule. They are one of sixteen teams who have yet to lose a game (the others being Arizona, Arkansas, Auburn, Butler, Colorado, DePaul, Duquesne, Indiana, Liberty, Louisville, Maryland, Ohio State, San Diego State, SMU, and West Virginia). Not too much has changed from last year though. Delaware is still sound with the ball, and shoot well from everywhere on the court (55% on two point field goals - 48th nationally, 75% on free throws - 49th nationally, and 37% on threes - 60th nationally). They are still below average in offensive rebounding and struggle to turn people over though. Opponents are shooting just 31% from deep, but no one they have faced is known for their shooting, so it's likely some combination of the three point arc moving slightly back and facing poor competition than anything else. The good news for us is that their strengths and weaknesses are good fits for us. We are good at running guys off the three point line (11th nationally) so it will be tougher for Delaware to get clean looks - granted Delaware has so many shooters it will be tough to stop all of them. We aren't a great rebounding team, but we won't be killed with second chance opportunities given Delaware's futility on that end rebounding. We have struggled with turnovers at times (especially JNJ) but Delaware doesn't strike me as a threat that will suddenly get us to cough up the ball 15 times. 

The junior backcourt tandem of Ryan Allen and Kevin Anderson should prevent Delaware from falling off too much offensively. Both are deadeye shooters, with Allen ever so slightly the more potent one. He has made 20 three pointers on the year, and is shooting 40% on those attempts (along with 90% from the line). Anderson has improved on his three point shooting (12/32 on the year), but more importantly paces the team with 4.9 assists per contest and adds some rebounding as well. On a team largely devoid of defenders, Allen and Anderson are perhaps the best perimeter defenders for the team.

To replace some of the scoring lost, Ingelsby took to the transfer portal, landing two impact players in UAB transfer wing Nate Darling and High Point transfer forward Justyn Mutts. I expected Darling to be an impact player for them, but man to say he's had just an impact would be unfair to the Canadian, who is off to a dazzling start, leading the team with 22.5 points per game, and is among the leaders in rebounding (4.3 rpg) and assists (2 apg). He is the heart of the team. While he is just an average defender and tends to cough the ball up over 3 times a game with his high usage, there aren't many holes in his game offensively. Darling leads the team with 30 made threes on the year, converting them at a sizzling 48% rate. Mutts is also off to a great start in Newark, averaging a near double-double on the year with 15.2 ppg (2nd on the team) and 9.7 rpg (leads the team). Although Mutts is one of the few Blue Hens who can't shoot from deep, he is a solid free throw shooter and gives Delaware a much needed inside presence.

The fifth spot in the starting lineup alongside Allen, Anderson, Darling, and Mutts will be occupied by old pal Collin Goss, who seems to have enjoyed a nice couple years at Delaware after departing DC. Goss was in more of a sixth man role before being inserted into the starting lineup to replace another former Colonial, Darian Bryant, who graduated last year. Since the Yuta near-buzzer beater was mentioned in the other thread, for those who hate themselves enough here's a trip down memory lane. Or for those who wish to forget what transpired in the final half second, this version is for you. Anyways, Goss is more of a glue guy for the team as the lone starter who doesn't average double figures. Goss is second on the team in rebounding (6.4 rpg) and has developed into an efficient shooter near the hoop (although is just 1/6 from the line, and 2/12 from deep...ouch). 

The remainder of Delaware's rotation don't figure to make big impacts by way of scoring, but provide breathers for the starters who will see heavy minutes. For small stretches, we will see senior forward Jacob Cushing, redshirt freshman Aleks Novakovich, and true freshmen Ebby Asamoah Jr. and John 'Johnny' McCoy. Cushing is another great shooter on the team, but doesn't see enough minutes to be overly dangerous. Novakovich has struggled to begin the year, but his good free throw shooting so far suggests an improvement is on the horizon. Asamoah, who hails from nearby Magruder HS in Montgomery County, has looked good in limited minutes. I wonder if Ingelsby gives him a few more minutes in his return to DC. McCoy will see the most minutes of the four and has shot well on his limited attempts, but is not a high usage player at this stage of his career. Ingelsby has done a great job integrating some of the freshmen on a largely veteran-laden team so far.

It's scary to think that this team hasn't even reached full capacity yet, as Villanova transfer Dylan Painter is set to become eligible midseason. Apart from Mutts and Goss, Delaware doesn't have much depth up front, so Painter's arrival will definitely bolster Delaware's frontcourt. Goss could be returning to a sixth man role entering conference play.

The result of this one comes down to whether we can slow Delaware down offensively. If we can, this game could go in our favor. How awesome would it be to give them their first loss? It is telling though that in the offseason, we were favored in this game by 10 points, and now we are one point underdogs. With it being at home, we definitely have a good chance, but this will be a tough one.

Predicted Score: Delaware 67, GW 66. 46% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a more optimistic 59.3% chance to win. It's worth noting that the predicted score has come within a point on either end from being almost exactly correct, so this definitely feels like yet another pick 'em should we play good defense.
 

Last edited by dmvpiranha (12/06/2019 9:33 pm)

Dylan Painter was a GW recruit as well.  We had him in our recruit portal on the old site.   

Seems to be quite a bit of GW/BlueHens overlap over the years.

Impressive work by this regime at Delaware, 9-0 is nothing to sneeze at.

Should be a fun game. Go Colonials! Lets try to make it 4 wins in 5 games!

AT Hiker wrote:

I am not mean enough to do this, but I would love to remind Goss of his foul against VCU three years ago that cost us the game. 

Hope no one would do this. As frustrating as that game was, not sure I've ever felt worse for a single player after a loss.

Line now up to -3 1/2 with a M/L of +155 for taking GW to win.  Looks like the public enjoys taking a 9-0 team over a 4-5 team, even if the 9-0 team has not really played anyone yet.

Can't stop Goss, can only hope to contain him

Strong recovery after a terrible start!  Jameer shining in the 1st half.  
Some good minutes from Ace as well.

We are playing very strong man defense on their leading scorer.  Overplaying him is leading to easy looks for Goss.  We need to rotate quicker