It's not early for this at all. Most of the OOC play is finished and it's the OOC that is so important for the A10.

Dayton is a top 20 team and everyone has seen how good they are.  Barring collapse they are in.

VCU is probably in - they have the computer ratings and the eye test and a win over LSU - but getting a road win at Wichita State in a couple of weeks could really help.

The problem for the rest of the league is that it's really hard to win league games.  Going by current resume:

Richmond has been a surprise team. The guards are shooting it really well and even though they can't rebound a lick, they have been one of the biggest surprises in the country.   They have a neutral win over Wisconsin, but they have some tough OOC games coming up - Charleston, at ODU (semi-rival and tricky road game even though ODU is only 180ish this year), a decent Radford team, and then at Alabama.  They could really use that Alabama road win to bolster their resume, and then would need to finish 3rd in the league to have a shot.

Duquesne is undefeated against a schedule that would make Hobbs blush. Best win is Indiana State on a neutral court.  They do have 4 more neutral court games left OOC for some reason, but Radford is the best of the bunch so even if they go undefeated OOC, they would need an exceptional conference record and would need 1-2 wins over Dayton/VCU to be taken seriously.  Even if they come up short, Keith Dambrot is a damn good coach and it's impressive they are in the conversation at all.

Davidson is not in the mix.  They are 77th in KenPom, but 4-5 and lost all their big chances. Auburn, Wake, Marquette, and Temple all beat them by double digits and they have a bad loss by double digits to Charlotte.  The kenpom rating will help the rest of the league, but short of doing something totally unrealistic like going 16-2, they have blown their chance.

Rhode Island has a better shot than Davidson, but it's a long shot. They thumped both Alabama and Providence at home, but couldn't get it done away from home against MD, LSU and West Virginia (the last one being the one they really needed). They do have Western Kentucky at home, so that's a chance for a top 100 win, but there's just not enough shooting or depth to go with Fats, Langevine, and Dowtin. They are probably the worst matchup in the league for us given their style and personnel so expect them to destroy us, but they would have to finish a strong 3rd in the league to be seriously on the bubble.

The only other team worth mentioning is St. Louis.  They aren't good enough to be a tourney team (and I'm not sure they are good enough to be an NIT team, though French and Goodwin are excellent players), but the reason they are worth mentioning is that they play Auburn in Birmingham and Kansas State in Kansas City so I suppose if they can win one of those two, their fans can dream about making the tourney if they finish well in the A10.

Bottom line is that we have two teams that are highly likely to be at-large teams barring collapse.  Then, whoever finishes third will probably be a bubble team because that's usually how it goes when you have two strong at-large teams.   I would say at this point there's probably a 50-50 shot, maybe even slightly better, of the A-10 sending 3 either because the third place team does enough to get an at-large or because a third team wins the conference tourney as usually seems to happen with the A-10.
 

Added great win btw, Dayton beating a really good St Mary's team

Free Quebec wrote:

It's not early for this at all. Most of the OOC play is finished and it's the OOC that is so important for the A10.

Dayton is a top 20 team and everyone has seen how good they are.  Barring collapse they are in.

VCU is probably in - they have the computer ratings and the eye test and a win over LSU - but getting a road win at Wichita State in a couple of weeks could really help.

The problem for the rest of the league is that it's really hard to win league games.  Going by current resume:

Richmond has been a surprise team. The guards are shooting it really well and even though they can't rebound a lick, they have been one of the biggest surprises in the country.   They have a neutral win over Wisconsin, but they have some tough OOC games coming up - Charleston, at ODU (semi-rival and tricky road game even though ODU is only 180ish this year), a decent Radford team, and then at Alabama.  They could really use that Alabama road win to bolster their resume, and then would need to finish 3rd in the league to have a shot.

Duquesne is undefeated against a schedule that would make Hobbs blush. Best win is Indiana State on a neutral court.  They do have 4 more neutral court games left OOC for some reason, but Radford is the best of the bunch so even if they go undefeated OOC, they would need an exceptional conference record and would need 1-2 wins over Dayton/VCU to be taken seriously.  Even if they come up short, Keith Dambrot is a damn good coach and it's impressive they are in the conversation at all.

Davidson is not in the mix.  They are 77th in KenPom, but 4-5 and lost all their big chances. Auburn, Wake, Marquette, and Temple all beat them by double digits and they have a bad loss by double digits to Charlotte.  The kenpom rating will help the rest of the league, but short of doing something totally unrealistic like going 16-2, they have blown their chance.

Rhode Island has a better shot than Davidson, but it's a long shot. They thumped both Alabama and Providence at home, but couldn't get it done away from home against MD, LSU and West Virginia (the last one being the one they really needed). They do have Western Kentucky at home, so that's a chance for a top 100 win, but there's just not enough shooting or depth to go with Fats, Langevine, and Dowtin. They are probably the worst matchup in the league for us given their style and personnel so expect them to destroy us, but they would have to finish a strong 3rd in the league to be seriously on the bubble.

The only other team worth mentioning is St. Louis.  They aren't good enough to be a tourney team (and I'm not sure they are good enough to be an NIT team, though French and Goodwin are excellent players), but the reason they are worth mentioning is that they play Auburn in Birmingham and Kansas State in Kansas City so I suppose if they can win one of those two, their fans can dream about making the tourney if they finish well in the A10.

Bottom line is that we have two teams that are highly likely to be at-large teams barring collapse.  Then, whoever finishes third will probably be a bubble team because that's usually how it goes when you have two strong at-large teams.   I would say at this point there's probably a 50-50 shot, maybe even slightly better, of the A-10 sending 3 either because the third place team does enough to get an at-large or because a third team wins the conference tourney as usually seems to happen with the A-10.
 

I'm going to have to against the grain and say that it is too early. Unlike the Power 5 conferences where many times a strong OOC schedule can give you enough lift to survive a .500 conference performance because of the overall strength of the conference, the A-10 has not historically been that league. To achieve an at large bid  in the A-10, you will most likely have to finish in top 4 of league if you don't win it outright in the tournament. Therefore, until one sees how the conference games play out, I believe it is way too premature to discuss this notwithstanding some admittedly strong OOC performances by A-10 teams.

It should be noted that we only have ONE team in the A-10 with a losing record.  ONE.

I think the better way of asking this question is to ask who do we think will end up with at-large bids rather than who can.  Davidson is 5-5.  I don't think they will be receiving an at large bid this season.  But could they?  Run the table and lose in the A10 championship game and they would most definitely be in.

As for who I think will, Dayton would really have to tragically fall apart to blow a bid at this point.  VCU will need to be around 12-6/13-5 in conference which I can easily foresee.  Richmond is the conference's most fascinating story so far excluding Dayton.  In addition to Gilyard playing at a very high level, the Spiders welcomed back Nick Sherrod from an injury and picked up Wagner transfer Blake Francis who has proven to be an explosive scorer.  Plus, Grant Golden is still hanging around.  The Spiders will likely need around 13-14 conference wins which I am not predicting.  They have been very reliant on their three point shooting which is subject to cool off from game to game.  In fact, I even see a certain team that has done a great job defending the 3 this season splitting their two games with Richmond.

The next closest group includes URI, Duquesne and St. Louis.  The Rams are beating who they should beat and losing games where they are the underdog.  Looking very much like a solid NIT team.  Duquesne is undefeated, and so was Delaware.  The Dukes will be penalized for a crap OOC schedule and they will need a dominant in-conference record to have a shot.  Which begs the question, when was the last time Duquesne dominated the conference?  Granted these are not the Jim Satalin/Danny Nee/Jim Ferry Dukes and I do believe that Keith Dambrot has them on the right track.  But not quite an at-large yet.  SLU may be the wildcard here.  I believe in Travis Ford as a coach (many do not) and Jordan Goodwin is on his way towards emerging as the player the Bills thought they were getting out of high school.  I would give them a better chance of an at large than URI or Duq, more along the lines of Richmond at this point. 

Last edited by Gwmayhem (12/11/2019 10:10 am)