Harvard Crimson

Date/Time: Saturday December 21st @ 12:00 PM at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC. Can we get enough students to stick around an extra day after exams conclude?
Record Last Year: 19-12, 10-4 (T-1st in Ivy)
Preseason Ranks: 75th (KenPom), 16th (Bart Torvik) - maybe a calculation error because that sounds high, 71st (Sports Illustrated), 39th (CBS)
Projected Record: 19-10, 9-5 (3rd in Ivy)
Postseason Last Year: NIT; the Crimson were a six seed in the tournament. Harvard defeated Georgetown in the first round 71-68 before coming up just short in the next round against NC State 78-77.
Coaching Record: Tommy Amaker, 230-131 in 12 seasons at Harvard including 4 NCAA appearances, 3 NIT appearances, and one CIT appearance. From 2011 to 2014, Harvard made 4 NCAA tournaments in a row, and the Crimson won their first game in two of them. Since Amaker's first two seasons, the Crimson have been at least a top half Ivy League team every year. Additionally, they have finished first in the league (or tied for first) in 7 of the 10 seasons Amaker has been coach. Their success has been pretty impressive. Amaker also spent 6 seasons in Ann Arbor (going 108-84 during that stretch) as well as 4 years with the Pirates of Seton Hall (finishing 68-55 there), but he did not achieve the same levels of postseason success in his previous stops. In those ten years combined he made 6 NIT tournaments and just 1 NCAA (although he did win the NIT once with Michigan). 

All Time Record: 3-4, although we have come out on top in 2 of the past 3 meetings (I think Patrick Steeves was our good luck charm). We fell in last year's contest on the road 75-61, with only Justin (11) and Maceo (10) finishing in double figures. Terry went a pretty bad 2-12 from the field.

Offensive Efficiency: 99th (KenPom), 101st (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 95th (KenPom), 103rd (Bart Torvik). This is a very balanced team on both sides of the ball.
Tempo: 200th (KenPom), 189th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Bryce Aiken (SR; Randolph, NJ) 22.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.6 apg; 43% FG, 40% 3-pt, 86% FT
      Last season against us: DNP

Noah Kirkwood (SO; Kanata, CAN) 11.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.9 apg; 46% FG, 40% 3-pt, 68% FT
      Last season against us: 20 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals; 7-12 FG, 4-8 3-pt, 2-3 FT in 30 minutes.

Chris Lewis (SR; Alpharetta, GA) 10.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg; 61% FG, 71% FT
      Last season against us: 8 points, 6 rebounds; 3-6 FG, 2-3 FT in 20 minutes.

Justin Bassey (SR; Denver, CO) 9 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.9 apg; 49% FG, 33% 3-pt, 59% FT
      Last season against us: 13 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists; 4-9 FG, 2-6 3-pt, 3-6 FT in 18 minutes.

Christian Juzang (SR; Calabasas, CA) 8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.4 apg; 42% FG, 36% 3-pt, 80% FT
      Last season against us: 3 points, 2 rebounds; 1-2 FG, 1-2 3-pt in 27 minutes.

Seth Towns (SR; Columbus, OH) DNP last season, 16 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.8 apg; 42% FG, 44% 3-pt, 81% FT in 2017-18.
      Last season against us: DNP

Key Losses:
No one worth caring about.

Comments:
If you watched any of GW's games against Harvard in the past few years, the names under the "key returning players" may ring a bell. That's because we are playing Harvard for the fourth consecutive year! Our OOC schedule will always be a surprise, but you can always count on us playing Harvard and Howard every year without fail.

The Crimson once again return their excellent senior class (that once again, we've faced every year they've been in college). In 2016, Harvard's recruiting class was ranked 10th in the nation, ahead of teams like North Carolina. Harvard enters the year as one of the favorites once again in the Ivy, although Amaker's senior class has yet to make an NCAA tournament. A big reason why that has been the case has been health. The good news for them is that teams in the Ivy League (along with Air Force, Army, and Navy) do not have scholarship limits, so through sheer depth alone the Crimson have managed, but not having all their key guys healthy at the same time has hurt them from reaching their full potential. We have honestly benefitted from that in the past - especially having dodged Aiken the past two years.

The Crimson are just a different team when Bryce Aiken is healthy. In his freshman year, Aiken put up 17 against us but has been battling through various knee injuries up until midway through last year. We will be in for a tough test as there is not much Aiken does poorly. A consensus 4-star and top 100 recruit, Aiken can score from all over the court at an elite level, and does a good job setting up his teammates as well. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets drafted with a solid senior year. He can be a bit sloppy with the turnovers, but that comes with the high usage. Although he has only appeared in six games this year (probably Amaker trying out different rotations in winnable games for them), Aiken far and away leads them in scoring with 18.2 ppg, shooting 41% from the field and 38% from three. He has 13 made threes in six games, second on the team. Fellow seniors Justin Bassey and Christian Juzang will assist Aiken. Bassey is a pretty good rebounder and can help out in scoring the ball when he needs to (Bassey has been a consistent 6-9 ppg his entire career). He is second on the team in assists and can play the point in certain rotations as well. Juzang is more of a pass first player than a guy who is really looking for his shot. Although the Tarzana native is also a competent scorer, he is not usually one of the first options offensively. His brother Johnny is a 4 star freshman at Kentucky this year. Neither Bassey nor Juzang have gotten off to strong starts shooting the ball overall, with Bassey at 36% and Juzang at 25%. Bassey had some absurd shooting numbers earlier in his career (shooting 57% from the field his freshman year, and also 43% from behind the arc his first two years) so he'll be looking to re-find that stroke.

Chris Lewis is their main frontcourt threat from the senior class. Lewis took a slight step back in the scoring department with Aiken healthy, but he is very tough to stop near the rim, and is good for about 5 rebounds in the 25 or so minutes he plays per game. Lewis operates exclusively in the paint. He is currently third on the team in scoring and leads the Crimson in rebounding so far this year. Robert Baker is one of the seniors who has been overshadowed over his career but he is no slouch either. Unlike Lewis, Baker can play either the 3 or as a stretch 4, shooting 35% from behind the arc so far. Baker is Harvard's best rim protector, leading the team in blocks. Although he has never been a go-to player, Baker has nearly doubled his scoring average to 8 ppg and is enjoying a solid final campaign. His emergence has been key as Towns continues to sit with a lingering knee injury.

Although Harvard's seniors will get most of the attention, they do have some younger guys who play key roles on the team. Former GW target and sophomore Noah Kirkwood was an impact guy on day 1 for Harvard. Kirkwood did not make mistakes freshmen are prone to making, and eventually worked his way to becoming Harvard's full-time point guard. Kirkwood hasn't slowed down, continuing to shoot the ball at an elite rate (40% from three - third on the team in makes) and adds 3 rebounds and assists per game (the latter leading the team quite easily). He is currently second on the team in scoring, and figures to become the go-to guy for Harvard once Aiken departs after the year. Freshman Chris Ledlum saw his stock rise during his final year in high school and hasn't slowed down entering college, averaging 8 points and 4 rebounds shooting 51% from the field and 36% from deep. Juniors Danilo Djuricic and Mario 'Rio' Haskett are the other notable returners. Djuricic has never found his three point stroke, but is an effective finisher closer to the hoop, and is probably Harvard's best free throw shooter on a team full of good ones. Haskett is their three point specialist, leading the team in three point makes and percentage. 

Harvard has so many talented players that guys like senior Henry Welsh, sophomore Mason Forbes, and the remainder of their freshmen class (Luka Sakota, Idan Tretout, Ciaran Brayboy, and Tommy O'Neil) will probably not see too much time if at all.

I thought Delaware was going to be somewhat of a challenge, but this is going to be the most talented team we've faced to date. Aiken, Baker, Lewis, and Ledlum are all four star players and have played like it. While I don't think we will get blown out like UMass did at home (by 34) and we have shown in the past to probably keep these games closer than expected, this will be a challenge (but give the young guys some good experience). Hoping the two weeks off will have us prepared to come out and ready to play right away (and not after the first 10 minutes as we've been doing recently; "exam fatigue" is a real thing). Harvard has always been pretty good on the glass, but have struggled with turnovers - hoping for some Mayhem magic in this one.

Predicted Score: Harvard 68, GW 64. 33% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a slightly more optimistic 36.2% chance to extend our win streak to 3.
 

This is definitely the best team we have faced.  Better than USC. At least it’s at home. 

JC and staff designed a great game plan for BU.  Will be interesting to see what they come up with.  We can try to deny Aiken the same way we did Darling, but they have a lot of other weapons who will make us pay for every mistake.

Any word on status of Mezzie?   Harris?

We got a line yet?

KenPom gives us a 32% chance of beating Harvard, with a final score prediction of a 69-64 loss.   

Early noon start?

Good start.  We are HOT from 3 right now

Too many turnovers and missed chippies again. Ugh! 3 point shooting has us barely ahead. Toro seems vary hesitant. And the free throw shooting is terrible. Hopefully the rust was shaken off in the first half. 

Have to figure out the zone.