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10/31/2022 1:51 pm  #41


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

GWRising wrote:

The win counts on the record. The stats count for the players. That is what makes it different than an exhibition game. It may not count for NCAA or other post season but that's a problem we are not going to have to worry about this season in all likelihood. They won't ask CC in a few years as to whether his record should be minus one win because he played Virginia State in his first year at home. That said, I don't imagine this (a game versus a non-DI) will be replicated in the future.

 

Yes, though we all know coaching records are extremely meaningless.  As ML once said when trying to upgrade three dreadful Hobbs schedules, he’d rather go 15-15 vs a good schedule than 18-12 vs a joke schedule.

 

10/31/2022 3:15 pm  #42


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

Free Quebec wrote:

GWRising wrote:

The win counts on the record. The stats count for the players. That is what makes it different than an exhibition game. It may not count for NCAA or other post season but that's a problem we are not going to have to worry about this season in all likelihood. They won't ask CC in a few years as to whether his record should be minus one win because he played Virginia State in his first year at home. That said, I don't imagine this (a game versus a non-DI) will be replicated in the future.

 

Yes, though we all know coaching records are extremely meaningless. As ML once said when trying to upgrade three dreadful Hobbs schedules, he’d rather go 15-15 vs a good schedule than 18-12 vs a joke schedule.

Yes, they all say that until it's contract renewal time and they say you went .500 vs .600. 

 

10/31/2022 3:34 pm  #43


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

GWRising wrote:

Free Quebec wrote:

GWRising wrote:

The win counts on the record. The stats count for the players. That is what makes it different than an exhibition game. It may not count for NCAA or other post season but that's a problem we are not going to have to worry about this season in all likelihood. They won't ask CC in a few years as to whether his record should be minus one win because he played Virginia State in his first year at home. That said, I don't imagine this (a game versus a non-DI) will be replicated in the future.

 

Yes, though we all know coaching records are extremely meaningless. As ML once said when trying to upgrade three dreadful Hobbs schedules, he’d rather go 15-15 vs a good schedule than 18-12 vs a joke schedule.

Yes, they all say that until it's contract renewal time and they say you went .500 vs .600. 

Show me an AD who is fooled by that distinction and I’ll show you a program destined to a fail.

 

10/31/2022 3:37 pm  #44


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

Syracuse excepted, right FQ? Unless there is TV money to be made, they STILL schedule like woosies.

 

10/31/2022 4:21 pm  #45


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

Free Quebec wrote:

GWRising wrote:

Free Quebec wrote:


Yes, though we all know coaching records are extremely meaningless. As ML once said when trying to upgrade three dreadful Hobbs schedules, he’d rather go 15-15 vs a good schedule than 18-12 vs a joke schedule.

Yes, they all say that until it's contract renewal time and they say you went .500 vs .600. 

Show me an AD who is fooled by that distinction and I’ll show you a program destined to a fail.

 How much time do you have? LOL. C'mon you've never heard the term "scheduling wins"? Many programs do it.

 

10/31/2022 4:58 pm  #46


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

It's hard for me to believe that either of you thinks they are definitively correct about this.  FQ, if any team went 30-0 in the regular season playing the 30 weakest teams in the country, and then lost in their one bid conference tournament, would they make the Dance as an at large with a 30-1 record?  Of course they would.  So it's really unfair to say that won loss records are extremely meaningless.  And Rising, am not sure if your initial response was serious but your follow-up certainly appeared to be.  Assuming this was the case, what I'd say to you is that there isn't a current AD who does not have at least a basic understanding of advanced metrics, and who in turn would be happier with an 18-12 record with a top 10 easiest schedule in America than a 15-15 record with a Top 10 most difficult schedule.   

 

10/31/2022 6:26 pm  #47


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

I realize we are sort of veering off into a different topic, but 18-12 vs. 15-15 includes conference games we don't really have control over.  Instead, you should look at just OOC.

While ML scheduled hard and actually won a lot of quality OOC games once the Core Four was in place, his conference record ultimately did him in. 

*extreme caveat here that this is all relative.  We'd gladly take an NIT bid right now in a heartbeat*

In 14-15, we finished OOC at 10-3 with wins against Rutgers, DePaul, Colorado, and Wichita State.  Our KenPom at the end of OOC play was 38.  However, we went 10-8 in conference and finished with a KenPom of 69 (nice).

In 15-16, we finished OOC at 11-2 with wins against UVA, USF, Tennessee, Seton Hall, and Penn State.  Our KenPom at the end of OOC play was 68.  We were as high as 42 and ranked before our brutal 21 point beat down at KenPom 183 DePaul.  We went 11-7 in conference and finished with a KenPom of 75.

Where I'm getting at is that whether you go 18-12 or 15-15 is sort of irrelevant if those losses come in conference play. In both of those scenarios, if we replaced one of those quality OOC wins with another 1-2 conference wins, I think we probably make the NCAA tournament both years.

I think CC has the right idea to go 70% OOC with most games at home.  I think this year is just extremely weak because he didn't know what he had year 1.

The 04-05 KH schedule would probably be what CC wants except the FIU game would be at home.  Some good quality teams and then easy wins.

@ Wake Forest
Morgan State
Fairfield
Mount St. Mary's
(N) Michigan State
(N) Maryland
St Francis (PA)
Towson
@FIU
@ WVU

Last edited by GW0509 (10/31/2022 6:28 pm)

 

11/01/2022 9:43 am  #48


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

Gwmayhem wrote:

It's hard for me to believe that either of you thinks they are definitively correct about this.  FQ, if any team went 30-0 in the regular season playing the 30 weakest teams in the country, and then lost in their one bid conference tournament, would they make the Dance as an at large with a 30-1 record?  Of course they would.  So it's really unfair to say that won loss records are extremely meaningless.  And Rising, am not sure if your initial response was serious but your follow-up certainly appeared to be.  Assuming this was the case, what I'd say to you is that there isn't a current AD who does not have at least a basic understanding of advanced metrics, and who in turn would be happier with an 18-12 record with a top 10 easiest schedule in America than a 15-15 record with a Top 10 most difficult schedule.   

Obviously, the truth is in the middle. But in the 18-12 v 15-15 comparison does it really make a difference except in the rarest of cases? Coaches do all sorts of scheduling for all sorts of reasons. There are definitely those that schedule wins and those like John Chaney of days past who would play anyone anywhere. I'm not advocating for scheduling wins but there are definite cases where doing so has benefitted coaches and their contracts. Otherwise, why would anyone play a weak OOC schedule when they have aspirations of the post season?

In addition. sometimes the directive is just to have winning season. Often the AD and coach are joined at the hip. professionally speaking. Sometimes the AD can keep the the alumni with pitchforks and torches at bay with a winning season. You can't schedule wins forever (Syracuse aside lol) but strategically placed such as in a contract year, it might just help you. This is actually a topic I have heard discussed among coaches.

Finally if you are in a low level one bid league and likely going to win it, you might want to do the opposite so you can get out of the play-in game or 14th/15th seed and not have to play a 1, 2 or 3 seed in the first round. When Cornell reached the Sweet 16 in 2010, that's exactly what Steve Donahue did. He built a strong resume OOC - played Alabama, Kansas, Seton Hall, Syracuse, St. John's, Davidson, UMass, La Salle, Vermont, Drexel, Bucknell, St. Joseph's and Toledo OOC. That is an incredible OOC schedule for almost anyone let alone an Ivy League member. His bet paid off because he was rewarded with a 12 seed which allowed him to upset Temple and Wisconsin before losing to No.1 seed Kentucky in the Sweet 16.

So if you talk to coaches you will get a lot of opinions on this and I think it is unique to each situation as far as what the coach projects for his team and also what he needs to do to keep his job or get extended.
 

 

11/01/2022 10:08 am  #49


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

Gwmayhem wrote:

It's hard for me to believe that either of you thinks they are definitively correct about this.  FQ, if any team went 30-0 in the regular season playing the 30 weakest teams in the country, and then lost in their one bid conference tournament, would they make the Dance as an at large with a 30-1 record?  Of course they would.  So it's really unfair to say that won loss records are extremely meaningless.  And Rising, am not sure if your initial response was serious but your follow-up certainly appeared to be.  Assuming this was the case, what I'd say to you is that there isn't a current AD who does not have at least a basic understanding of advanced metrics, and who in turn would be happier with an 18-12 record with a top 10 easiest schedule in America than a 15-15 record with a Top 10 most difficult schedule.   

Mayhem, I'd point to the 05-06 squad and say you're PROBABLY right, but not DEFINITELY right. GW nearly ran the table (save a wipeout at NC State) in the non-con, then swept through a down A-10, reached as high as #6 in the polls, lost early in the A10 tournament, and only picked up an 8 seed. KenPom rated it the second worst non-conference schedule in the country that year, and the A-10 schedule made it the 184th-best schedule in the nation. 

I don't recall where GW sat on the S-Curve among #8 seeds, but there were 18 at-large teams who got seeded before GW. Indiana went 18-11 with the 91st Non-Con and 10th strongest schedule overall and got an at-large 7 seed.

 

11/01/2022 10:56 am  #50


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

Yes, was going to point out the example of a team, about 15 years ago that went 26-1, but did not have the greatest non-conference schedule. Though recall all Division 1 games.
And wound up with a comparatively terrible NCAA seed.
   It's marginally acceptable this year because we have abandoned hope before the season starts. And if we don't rain 3s in the first half, Sunday wasn't hugely encouraging for our depth. But this is not a great idea in the future when our good recruits take the court.
Obviously, there are a lot of factors that go into scheduling from a coach's and AD's personal perspective, as well as what's best for the program. Rightly or wrongly.
  But playing good teams can make a team stronger.

 

11/01/2022 11:59 am  #51


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

I am in the corner of playing touch opponants makes  you a better team, but to get the fans to return to the Smitty, it will need to start with a gaudy record, which means beating up on cupcakes to pad the won loss record.

 

11/01/2022 12:01 pm  #52


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

jf wrote:

Obviously, there are a lot of factors that go into scheduling from a coach's and AD's personal perspective, as well as what's best for the program. Rightly or wrongly.
  But playing good teams can make a team stronger.

It's possible, but it can also hurt your at-large bid if you don't win enough against those good teams. Meanwhile, there are things like what Jeff Goodman points out here that the NET actually encourages good teams to schedule cupcakes and beat them down. 

@GoodmanHoops  
Here’s one of the reasons why some teams are playing more teams they know they can absolutely pound: There is still no cap on efficiency in the NET. Scoring margin is capped, but teams will run it up when they can because it’ll be rewarded with their efficiency numbers.

If GW is in a position to get an at-large bid, we probably don't want to schedule the absolute hardest possible schedule because it could impact our NET.  We'd still want low D1 teams to run up the score.  Unfortunately for us we've been scheduling cupcakes and losing to them https://cdn.boardhost.com/emoticons3/blush.png

 

 

11/01/2022 12:01 pm  #53


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

creeksandzeeks wrote:

Gwmayhem wrote:

It's hard for me to believe that either of you thinks they are definitively correct about this.  FQ, if any team went 30-0 in the regular season playing the 30 weakest teams in the country, and then lost in their one bid conference tournament, would they make the Dance as an at large with a 30-1 record?  Of course they would.  So it's really unfair to say that won loss records are extremely meaningless.  And Rising, am not sure if your initial response was serious but your follow-up certainly appeared to be.  Assuming this was the case, what I'd say to you is that there isn't a current AD who does not have at least a basic understanding of advanced metrics, and who in turn would be happier with an 18-12 record with a top 10 easiest schedule in America than a 15-15 record with a Top 10 most difficult schedule.   

Mayhem, I'd point to the 05-06 squad and say you're PROBABLY right, but not DEFINITELY right. GW nearly ran the table (save a wipeout at NC State) in the non-con, then swept through a down A-10, reached as high as #6 in the polls, lost early in the A10 tournament, and only picked up an 8 seed. KenPom rated it the second worst non-conference schedule in the country that year, and the A-10 schedule made it the 184th-best schedule in the nation. 

I don't recall where GW sat on the S-Curve among #8 seeds, but there were 18 at-large teams who got seeded before GW. Indiana went 18-11 with the 91st Non-Con and 10th strongest schedule overall and got an at-large 7 seed.

My primary point was that this is a more nuanced discussion, such that we can't make the statement that coaching won-loss records are meaningless nor can we ignore the importance of playing a schedule that isn't filled with nothing but cupcakes.  Believe me when I say that at that time and for a number of years thereafter, I went ballistic over the 2005-06 OOC schedule.  Not only did it cost that team seeding wise but it was so unnecessary given the talent and veteran nature of that team.  Instead of going 26-1 in the regular season, that team could have replaced three cupcakes with quality games, gone say 24-3, and received a more favorable seed.

My own personal preference is to opt for a more challenging schedule (1/3 top 75, 1/3 76-174, and 1/3 175+).

 

11/01/2022 12:14 pm  #54


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

The focus should be winning the A10 tournament. That's the only sure way to get into the NCAAs. Too many factors for an at-large birth beyond our control. If we have a good conference record and go deep into the A10 championship tourney, our OCC matters less. I'm hoping CC is focused on being at the top of the conference year in and year out, and not getting into the NCAAs through the back door.

 

11/01/2022 12:41 pm  #55


Re: GW vs WC St Game Thread

Interesting discussion, but I fear we are getting ahead of ourselves. When you have lost to UC-San Diego, UMass-Lowell, BU, Cal State-Fullerton, Navy, Hampton, UMBC, Bill & Mary. Towson. Morgan and AU in recent years, we should be happy with any winning record against non-conference opponents.  Let's start by beating Va State, UMES, UC-San Diego, Hofstra, UNH and American. 
I know I sound like LSF, but I attended the exhibition game and while Edwards and Bishop were impressive, I don't think we are going to shoot 50 percent from 3 and I am only cautiously optimistic we can beat the weakest of our opponents. And I would be very happy to be proven wrong and see us have a winning non-conference record.

 

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