BM wrote:

I had forgotten that Hosfstra was the first win in that NIT win with the Mitola runner. Apparently they haven’t.

http://www.flyingdutchmenfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=27196

The first poster calls us the "Colonels."  

GW0509 wrote:

BM wrote:

I had forgotten that Hosfstra was the first win in that NIT win with the Mitola runner. Apparently they haven’t.

http://www.flyingdutchmenfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=27196

The first poster calls us the "Colonels."  

Well, it is the last time folks at Hosftra have to worry about playing the "Colonels". (Maybe Squid can do a "GW Colonels Farewell Tour" t-shirt with the 2022-23 schedule on the back)

GW chartering the flight up to LI.  Looks like CC was able to get the school to finally open up the pocketbook.  Truly amazing given the frequency of shuttle flights out of DCA would make flying commercial not that big of a deal.  

@SportsAviation  
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Last edited by GW0509 (11/13/2022 3:11 pm)

Hofstra Pride

Date/Time: Monday November 14th @ 7:00 PM ET at The David S. Mack Sports and Exhibition Complex in Hempstead, NY. The arena seats 5,023 people.
TV: FloHoops (ugh...stop scheduling games against the CAA)
Preseason Ranks: 144th (KenPom), 186th (Bart Torvik), 123rd (Sports Illustrated)
2021-22 Record: 21-11, 13-5 (3rd in CAA)
2022-23 Projected Record: 18-13, 11-7 (3rd in CAA)

Head-to-Head: 3-1. We are 3-0 against the Pride this century, and have outscored the Pride by an average of 5.5 points overall in the series. Since the NIT opener has been referenced above, I will mention the last time we played Hofstra at their place, which was during the 2013-14 season where we won 69-58. Mo Creek led the way with 17 points, 2 rebounds, and 4 steals and we got supporting contributions from KevLar (14 points, 7 rebounds, 2 steals), and Kethan (12 points, 2 rebounds). We trailed by 3 at halftime before putting up 40 points in the second half. It certainly helped to shoot 50% from three but hopefully we do a better job of converting free throws than the 59% mark we had that game (although Miguel Cartagena and Nick Griffin accounted for 4 of our 9 misses). Speaking of which, Griffin is now playing professionally in Greece after finishing his career at St. Peter's. GW was outrebounded 30-25, but made up for it by passing the ball better than Hofstra. Most notably, JoeMac finished with 7 assists for the game. This year's Hofstra squad is certainly better on both sides of the ball than the one we faced in 2013-14, especially on offense. This feels like a game where we may have to keep up with the Pride on the scoreboard, and to do that we will have to pass the ball the way we have thus far in the Caputo era.

Preseason Offensive Efficiency: 97th (KenPom), 138th (Bart Torvik)
Preseason Defensive Efficiency: 138th (KenPom), 238th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 71st (KenPom), 94th (Bart Torvik)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 104th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 68th
Rim & 3 Rate: 85% (212th)

Strengths:
Free Throw Percentage (3rd)
Turnover Margin (9th)
Assist Turnover Ratio (12th)
3-PT Field Goals Per Game (18th)
3-PT Field Goal Attempts (20th)
Turnovers Per Game (23rd)
Fewest Turnovers (24th)
Total 3-PT Field Goals Made (T-28th)
Scoring Offense (30th)
Assists Per Game (35th)
Steals Per Game (T-42nd)
Turnovers Forced (49th)
Personal Fouls Per Game (51st)
Total Steals (T-52nd)
Field Goal Percentage (54th)
Total Assists (56th)
Fewest Fouls (T-66th)
Win-Loss Percentage (T-80th)

Weaknesses:
Scoring Defense (269th)
Total Rebounds Per Game (T-275th)
Field Goal Percentage Defense (281st)
Free Throws Made (T-289th)
Rebound Margin (289th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game (299th)
Free Throw Attempts (326th)
3-PT Field Goal Defense (331st)

Key Returning Players:
Aaron Estrada (Senior; Woodbury, NJ) 18.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 5 apg, 1.5 spg; 48% FG, 33% 3-PT, 94% FT
Darlinstone Dubar (Sophomore; Charlotte, NC) 11.7 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1 apg, 1.1 spg; 54% FG, 34% 3-PT, 71% FT

Key Losses:
Jalen Ray (Graduated; Hampton, VA) 13.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1 spg; 41% FG, 40% 3-PT, 84% FT
Zach Cooks (Graduated; Lawrenceville, GA) 12.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3 apg, 1.6 spg; 40% FG, 29% 3-PT, 75% FT
Omar Silverio (Transferred to Manhattan; Santiago De Los Caballeros, Dominican Republic) 10.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.1 spg; 37% FG, 36% 3-PT, 92% FT - Re-entered the transfer portal again after Masiello was fired just before the start of the season. That just sucks for all the players at Manhattan. Hope Silverio (a former URI player) and others find a new home soon.
Abayomi Iyiola (Transferred to Kansas State; Ibadan, Nigeria) 7.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg; 63% FG, 76% FT
Kvonn Cramer (Transferred to Bryant; Wilmington, DE) 5.1 ppg, 3 rpg; 72% FG, 67% 3-PT, 56% FT

Comments:
There have been plenty of coaches that have been hired at the college level after a lengthy NBA career. On paper, hiring a person who has experience making it to the highest level of basketball is a move that makes sense - it helps with recruiting, and they know what a player is feeling good or bad. However, there seems to be enough evidence that the NBA player-to-college coach trajectory is one that doesn't usually meet expectations from a win-loss standpoint. This is due to a number of reasons: 1) the college game has really no offseason and that can be a big transition. Despite having to report for practice and put in extra individual work as an NBA player, there is still generally time in the day to take a break. As a college coach, there is no down time. Practically the entire offseason is spent recruiting the next class of players for the team. 2) Assembling a coaching staff is harder than it looks; not only does everyone have to be on the same page, but the hire practically needs to be someone who has recruited at the college level in the past and knows how to connect with players. The head coach just cannot do everything on their own. Finally, there is 3): The NBA and the college game are just different, and that also includes coaching at the two levels. "Star power" won't always carry the team to a win, and team chemistry is arguably even more important at the collegiate level.

Why is this relevant to Hofstra? Well, the man in charge of the program is Craig "Speedy" Claxton, who took over for Joe Mihalich in 2021, a DC native who had won 400 career games before stepping down due to a medical issue. Speedy was a former first round draft pick who was coached by the legendary Jay Wright at Hofstra, but following a proven winner like Mihalich is still no easy task, especially given all the obstacles that former NBA guys have to overcome has illustrated above. Sure, Claxton inherited a reasonably talented roster, and had already been an assistant at his alma mater for eight seasons prior to getting the head job, but winning 21 games in year one is still very impressive.

Hofstra's winning formula is a simple one: make threes and take care of the ball on offense and put pressure on opposing ball-handlers without fouling on the other side of the ball. That makes a lot of sense, given Claxton is #1 in school history in career assists and steals. The Pride ranked roughly top 50 (or better) in the country in personal fouls per game, forcing turnovers, assists per game, and points per game, but the top 10 finish in turnover margin best encapsulates the way Hofstra wants to play. When you rank 72nd in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom) you're doing something right. If there is a thing they could possibly do better when it comes to scoring the ball, it's probably settling for fewer jumpers. Despite having the third best shooting mark at the charity stripe in the country, Hofstra didn't really get to the line that much (331st nationally), a product of taking many jumpers. Speedy (the player) got to the line a lot, so I'm sure he's working on fixing that. Hofstra also conceded many threes on defense, preferring to prioritize guarding the paint. Honestly, their poor defense ranking is partly a product of the CAA just being so good on offense. Night in and night out you're facing good offenses that have several players that can torch you from distance. The good news for us is that they are not a team that will try to outmuscle you on the boards due to prioritizing skill at all five positions so we should hopefully be solid rebounding tomorrow. Hofstra was 299th nationally in offensive rebounds last season, and that was with Abayomi Iyiola ranking 37th nationally in offensive rebounds per game who is no longer at Hofstra.

Reigning CAA player of the year Aaron Estrada returns at the point of attack. Claxton's offensive scheme revitalized Estrada's career, who was an afterthought at Oregon after winning MAAC rookie of the year at St. Peter's. Estrada rarely came off the floor last season (59th nationally in minutes played) as he was responsible for either scoring (56th in points per game) or creating for others (39th in assists per game) with nearly a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio. That doesn't even mention the fact that he was quietly Hofstra's second best rebounder as well. There is no real weakness in Estrada's game (he is a 94% FT shooter). Although Hofstra has a bunch of threats along the perimeter, we will need to make sure he plays the role more as passer than scorer tomorrow.

Hofstra did lose a couple key guys in the backcourt to graduation this offseason. Jalen Ray was a four year player for the Pride who scored 1,736 points in his career (9th in program history) and earned third-team honors last year. Ray was a prolific three point shooter who was in the top 40 nationally in 3-PT percentage and makes on the year. Graduate student Zach Cooks also had a memorable campaign after coming over from NJIT where he won sixth man of the year in the conference.

To replace Ray and Cooks, Claxton brought in Sacred Heart transfer Tyler Thomas and JUCO transfer German Plotnikov. Two seasons ago, Thomas won NEC's most improved player and was named second-team all-NEC, putting up nearly 20 points a game. Last season, he took a slight step back but still made the third team. He started every game at Sacred Heart and was an effective secondary playmaker off the ball. Plotnikov is not from Germany as his first name would suggest (he is a Belarus native). He is a sniper from distance, having led North Platte CC in scoring (20.7 ppg) while shooting over 40% from three. That's a good replacement for Ray, who shot 39% from three over his career. Like Thomas, Plotnikov also spent time as the main facilitator at his JUCO while doubling as a strong on-ball defender.

For backcourt depth, Claxton will turn to sophomore Jaquan Carlos and redshirt freshman Amar'e Marshall, hoping a year of development will help both of their games. Carlos was a 3-star prospect out of HS who had offers from several ACC, Big East, and Big 12 schools. He will likely spend time orchestrating the second-team offense/handling duties at the point when Estrada is taking a breather. Marshall on the other hand will play more off the ball. Both Carlos and Marshall provide even more shooting for Hofstra. Penn transfer Bryce Washington and redshirt freshman Griffin Barrouk are deeper options who don't figure to make to much of an impact. Washington, a former 3-star prospect, has played sparingly the past couple of years after a promising freshman year where he averaged roughly 8 points a game while shooting nearly 40% from distance.

The other notable returner is former Iowa State Cyclone Darlinstone Dubar, a guy who gives Hofstra a versatile weapon that can guard multiple positions and hit a 3 on the other end. Despite a pair of single-digit scoring performances to finish his sophomore year against Charleston, it was a highly successful breakout campaign for Dubar after an unsteady start to his career in Ames. He will be one to watch as one of the better athletes on the team, as evidenced by his P6 pedigree.

As mentioned above, Hofstra is not a prolific rebounding squad, partly due to a lack of bodies in the frontcourt. All the names mentioned above are guards. Dubar's height at 6-6 may lead to him playing the 4 for stretches by default for Hofstra. Plotnikov is also 6-6, but his game is more like a guard than a forward. Claxton did land a pair of transfers this offseason to help out in Warren Williams (Manhattan) and Nelson Boachie-Yiadom (Davidson), but Williams is yet to play so far this year and Boachie-Yiadom has had a modest impact so far. When healthy, Williams provides reliable scoring in the post which will help balance Hofstra's offense. The bigger concern is that outside of one year, he wasn't known for his rebounding. Boachie-Yiadom is a great glue player, but not a guy who can lead a frontcourt. The only other forwards on the roster are redshirt freshman Christian Tomasco and true freshman Lual Manyang from South Sudan. Manyang has potential down the road but will certainly not be ready to contribute in a meaningful way this year. While Hofstra may be able to get by against CAA competition, if they shoot their way to the NCAA tournament they will be exposed quickly as their frontcourt looks somewhat rough.

This will obviously be a tough test, especially with the game being on the road. We had lapses defensively when Howard cut to the basket on occasion in the first half, but did a much better job in the second. I wonder whether we should go back to the JC philosophy of running the opposition oft the three point line in this game. I think it's inevitable that Hofstra will put up points in this game regardless, but would prefer to give up two points instead of three. Nice to see Ricky put up 19 points on Friday, his highest scoring effort since two seasons ago. I don't think Hunter will continue to shoot 100% from the field, but he will obviously be key along with Noel against an undersized Hofstra frontcourt. I hope Noel shows out, but every time he's in the game he always seems to fumble the ball when he goes up with it which is unfortunate. I think Qwanzi may end up being the X-factor in this one with his shooting ability. Hopefully we can go slightly more than 8 deep at some point in OOC, whether it's Amir playing a few minutes, or perhaps we can get Keegan in for a few minutes in this one (Hofstra's 5 isn't a strength, so he may be able to hide on defense while providing some three point shooting on offense that we will certainly need).

Projected Score: Hofstra 77, GW 74. 38% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 19.4% chance to move to 3-0. Hofstra will probably be an 8 point favorite or so.
 

Free Quebec wrote:

KenPom has us a 9 point dog so it’ll be a good early test for the new approach.

FanDuel has us at +7.5 and +275 on the ML.  Worth a bet to me.

The last time we won our first true road game of the season was in 2016, a 77-74 win vs. Harvard.

Since then:
2017: 87-67 loss @ Florida State
2018: 76-57 loss @ Virginia
2019: 72-58 loss @ Towson
2020: 78-71 loss @ Navy
2021: 71-64 loss @ Maryland

The last time we won any OOC true road game was later in 2016, a 66-63 win vs. Temple.

Last edited by GW0509 (11/14/2022 8:51 am)

creeksandzeeks wrote:

When campus is so close to DCA and so many of our conference peers are within spitting distance of major hubs, when is a charter flight a competitive advantage and not just a recruiting advantage? I imagine a weeknight game to, say, Bonaventure or Amherst would make for a better student-athlete experience, but is going through security and waiting at a gate THAT much of a competitive detriment?

Your point is well taken in general.  It has to do more with the availability of commercial flights I suspect.  Figure that the team's return flight should leave around 10:30-11.  If the team were flying commercially, it would have to get to Islip, LaGuardia or Kennedy and then fly to Dulles (too late to land at Reagan National).  Looking at a midnight flight at the earliest.  Is this even an option?  You could alternatively return early Tuesday morning but then the players would be missing more classroom time plus payment for an extra hotel night.

Fortunately I just found out my FloRugby subscription gives me access to FloHoops.

 

Class 'o 70 wrote:

FloHoops wants 30 friggen bucks to see the game (ie, one month subscription). Does anyone know if there is a cheaper way to do this? what a rip....

Pirate sites say they will have the game. Of course, this is "illegal" and of dubious moral validity (of course, charging $30 for FloSports is devoid of moral validity), and likely to get some Ruskie or Chinese viruses embedded in your device. You did not hear it from me but... do a search for "live sports streaming free" and get ready for "adult content" popups when you click the links (which you should close immediatly) and you should be able to get the game.