American Eagles

Date/Time: Saturday December 10th @ 4:00 PM ET at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, DC.
TV: ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 300th (KenPom), 302nd (Bart Torvik), 320th (Sports Illustrated)
2021-22 Record: 10-22, 5-13 (T-9th in Patriot)
2022-23 Projected Record: 18-11, 11-7 (T-2nd in Patriot)

Head-to-Head: 18-20. GW has only faced American 4 times since 2000, splitting those contests 2-2. In the most recent meeting in 2019, the Eagles came out victorious 67-65 on a buzzer beater by Sa'eed Nelson, who finished with a team high 20 points in the contest. We dug ourselves into an early hole, trailing by 7 going into halftime which proved to be too much to overcome in the second half. Neither team shot the ball well from distance (under 30%) and the teams combined to shoot just 23 free throws. Our massive rebounding advantage (43-25) wasn't enough to offset turning the ball over 17 times to just 7 for American.

Toro had an absolute monster of a game down low, finishing with 20 points and 24 rebounds. American as a team had just 4 boards more than him. AT's rebounding total equaled an A10 single-game record first set by the late Yinka Dare. JNJ had 13 points and 8 rebounds, showing his early potential as a freshman but turned the ball over 9 times which contributed to the loss. Jamison added 12 on 4 made threes, and Mazzulla added 10 off the bench, which ended up being his final points as a Colonial before he departed for Vermont.

Preseason Offensive Efficiency: 304th (KenPom), 310th (Bart Torvik)
Preseason Defensive Efficiency: 290th (KenPom), 259th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 296th (KenPom), 320th (Bart Torvik)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 323rd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 343rd
Rim & 3 Rate: 84% (233rd)

Strengths:
Personal Fouls Per Game (T-49th)
Fewest Fouls (T-64th)

Weaknesses:
Free Throw Percentage (256th)
Turnovers Forced (T-270th)
Assist Turnover Ratio (272nd)
Rebound Margin (287th)
Turnover Margin (297th)
Total Rebounds (T-299th)
Win-Loss Percentage (T-299th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game (T-306th)
Free Throw Attempts (T-313th)
Free Throws Made (T-313th)
Scoring Margin (321st)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game (323rd)
Scoring Offense (328th)
Total 3-PT Field Goals Made (T-329th)
Field Goal Percentage Defense (337th)
Total Rebounds Per Game (339th)
3-PT Field Goal Attempts (340th)
3-PT Field Goals Per Game (341st)

Key Returning Players:
Colin Smalls (Sophomore; Upper Marlboro, MD) 10.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.1 spg; 46% FG, 28% 3-PT, 75% FT
Matt Rogers (Sophomore; Knoxville, MD) 9.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2 apg; 58% FG, 7% 3-PT, 66% FT
Johnny O'Neil (Sophomore; Miami Shores, FL) 8.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1 bpg; 42% FG, 38% 3-PT, 58% FT
Connor Nelson (Senior; Denver, CO) 7.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.3 spg; 44% FG, 34% 3-PT, 80% FT
Elijah Stephens (Freshman; Waco, TX) 6.4 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.2 spg; 42% FG, 35% 3-PT, 72% FT

Key Losses:
Stacy Beckton Jr. (Graduated; Daytona Beach, FL) 13.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.4 spg; 43% FG, 36% 3-PT, 73% FT

Comments:
Impressive debuts can be tough to follow up. Not just the following season but in general at the mid and low major level. Mike Brennan raised expectations when he took American dancing in his first year at helm, the first time the Eagles had made the tournament in 5 years (also coincidentally the last time GW made the tournament). It's important to note that Brennan's first year at American (when he won Patriot League CoY) was also his first year as head coach (Brennan spent the previous six seasons as an assistant in DC between AU and Georgetown), which meant a larger sample size was needed in order to determine just how good he was. Unfortunately, he has not been able to get to that first year level since - American has had just two seasons with a record over .500 in Brennan's eight years coaching since that first year.

What made that 2014 Eagle team so successful was a strong defense. American finished the year ranked 61st in defensive efficiency. Brennan has had just two top 200 finishes on that side of the ball since. The Patriot League as a conference has always had teams that can really shoot the ball as they look to offset athletic disadvantages with skill, but I'm surprised more teams haven't developed a defense-first identity in the Patriot League, especially those who have consistently been unable to contend recently like Holy Cross. Navy was the only team last year that finished top 200 on defense in the league, and they had great success (although of course were second to Colgate). The previous year, the four best teams were also the four best defensively.

Last season was certainly one to forget for American as the Eagles tied for last in the conference, their worst finish since 2018. It didn't help that they had a game canceled due to COVID and three other conference games were postponed, but that didn't fully explain their futile performance last year. American had four different losing streaks during the year where they lost three or more games. An early 2-0 start to the year was followed by a 22 point loss to Georgetown (hey they at least got revenge this year!) and a 40(!) point loss to Longwood. They would later lose in blowout fashion to juggernauts UMBC (by 31), Stony Brook (by 23), and Howard (by 34). Conference play wasn't much better, as two of their five wins were against Holy Cross.

Despite the poor year, there is reason to believe American can turn their fortunes around. The Eagles won a combined 8 conference games between 2016-2018 but Brennan followed it up with three top 4 finishes (although the 2020-21 season has a large asterisk next to it being the COVID season).

A good place to start is their returning production as American brings back 5 of their top 6 scorers from last year and 11 overall. Unfortunately their one loss is Stacy Beckton Jr., a third-team all-Patriot league selection who finished with 1,100 points for his AU career. While some may argue it's a negative to bring back players who were losing so many games at the very least it's helpful to have guys who have played in Brennan's system. In the backcourt, Colin Smalls enjoyed a breakout sophomore season, starting every game for the Eagles. He struggled with his efficiency from 3 in a bigger role and was prone to coughing the ball up at times but became a reliable scoring option for an American team that sorely needed it. Smalls especially got it going down the stretch, finishing in double figures in seven of their final nine games. It's important to note that he has been sidelined the past four games due to an undisclosed injury and is questionable for tomorrow.

Smalls will be supported by Elijah Stephens, a Waco native who was an impactful player for AU in his first year of CBB and started a handful of games. Stephens, a Patriot league all-rookie team selection, not only made a respectable 35% of his three pointers but showed impressive poise as American's point guard of the future with a 1.6 assist to turnover ratio.

Up front, American has a trio of proven contributors in Matt Rogers, Johnny O'Neill, and Connor Nelson. All three are willing rebounders who are able to move the ball from the post. Rogers is more of a traditional post player who prefers to shoot closer to the hoop, while O'Neill and Nelson provide versatility as stretch forwards having shot over half their attempts from distance at a 38% and 34% clip respectively. O'Neill is a bouncy forward who swatted a team best 33 shots last year. He sat out their last game and is questionable with an undisclosed injury. Nelson (a former JUCO) is more of a wing, and is the only player still around from our last matchup against them back in 2019, when he chipped in 5 points off the bench. He hasn't yet played on the year.

The Eagles also return six role players from last year. Jaxon Knotek, a Wisconsin native who came over from North Dakota State provides veteran leadership and respectable bench production but will need to shoot better than 59% from the line (a career worst) to earn more playing time. Matt Delaney showed potential with a 13 point outing against Lafayette in his true freshman year, but will likely continue a deeper role given the number of forwards ahead of him. Italian Lorenzo Donadio shot the ball well from 3 (36%) when given the chance but otherwise wasn't too impactful. Old friend Lincoln Ball was unable to carve out a significant role in his first season with American after transferring from GW. He has been shooting the ball better this year and has even drawn a number of starts lately for the squad. While he will likely never be a "go-to" player on the team, he is the perfect glue guy that can do a bit of everything - something any team could use. Mason Whittaker, a native of New Zealand, provides even more depth in front but will likely have an uphill battle to significant playing time like Delaney. He has yet to see action this season. Finally, walk-on Chris Gleaton doesn't figure to play too large of a role, although he has seen more playing time in two recent two contests against Albany and St. Francis (PA) with players sidelined, making 3 of 4 shots and averaging 5.5 ppg.

With only a couple of spots available, American did not add a whole lot but did bring in two freshmen in Geoff Sprouse and Jermaine Ballisager Webb. Sprouse has been a revelation for American so far and I would be very surprised if he doesn't end up on the all-rookie team by the end of the year. Sprouse is their third leading scorer on the year, putting in nearly 12 a game and shooting 46% from three with 19 made on the season (leads team). American isn't lacking in size, but doesn't really have top end height down low. That's where Ballisager Webb, a Denmark native, comes in at 7 feet tall. He's been a solid contributor on both sides of the ball, making 2/3 of his attempts in the post. Given how much Tshimanga gave us trouble in the UCSD game, I do worry about Ballisager Webb but hopefully we have learned how to handle with that kind of height down low.

As always, hoping to see energy and hopefully showing a bit more resistance defensively. American is off to a great start shooting the 3 on the year (38%), and we have had our share of troubles this year preventing teams from having success from distance against us. Brennan is a Princeton graduate, so it should be expected we see American run some of those actions offensively playing through one of their bigs. Additionally while American is not a defensive juggernaut, they are able to swipe the ball away with their general activity defensively. They have a couple of strong on-ball defenders, including Smalls, Nelson, and especially Stephens, who is 4th nationally with 3 steals per game. How well we take care of the ball will also be important although we have been better of late. It would also be helpful to get contributions from the bench, as we are currently 357th in bench minutes. That may spell trouble once A10 play comes around.

Projected Score: GW 73, American 66. 74% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 62.9% chance to improve to 6-3 on the season. I wouldn't be surprised if we opened as about a 2-3 point home favorite.
 

AU fan here. Look forward to the matchup. Clearly, this is the most sustained period of good play we've had for quite a while. Few tiny additions to the scouting report. O'Neil returned to the lineup Tuesday against Mount St. Mary's and had a huge last six minutes, with three three-point plays. And most of the preseason weaknesses cited haven't been present so far this season. We're 24th nationally in eFG (.558) and 32nd in threes (.383).

Biggest reason for our win streak and improved play this season, IMHO, is simple – we brought back most of the roster that played the limited COVID season (2020-21) and last season. We haven't had roster continuity for a while. Seven of our top 11 guys are in at least their third season in the system; it makes a huge difference to have juniors and seniors out there. Knotek is in just his second season at AU but is a graduate senior with 80 D1 games under his belt; he's been huge for us doing the dirty work at the defensive end. But we're a sum of the parts team so far, with everyone contributing. Rogers has been terrific in the middle, and Webb has been good behind him. He's a legit 7-footer (240 pounds) who isn't fancy but knows how to use his body well for a freshman. As noted, we're shooting better from deep than we have in a good long while. The ball's moving and finding the right guys.

Defensively, our guards and wings have been very active. Stephens has been outstanding helping our bigs down low, but everyone is chipping in with deflections. 

Nelson hasn't played all season rehabbing a torn ACL from last season and won't play Saturday. We're holding him back for conference play. Whitaker is out for the season (torn ACL). Not sure if Colin will play; he's missed the last several games with a back issue. Lincoln has started in his absence and played solid minutes, including a big three against the Mount. I think it'll be a fun, competitive game.

Last edited by KingBrennan (12/09/2022 7:50 pm)

Line down to GW -6.5 on FanDuel as of this morning

It would be sad to lose to any Patriot League team at home. The fact that we're worried is a reflection, unfortunately, of where the program is now. 

Word from the coaches is Dean will not be playing today. Took an elbow in practice.

I was really hoping Caputo could get more out of this team, but its pretty clear to me now that we will not get better unless and until we get better players.

Tennessee Colonial wrote:

It's obvious that our players are not too smart basketball wise. Just keep chucking up 3 point shots and missing is not smart at all. And still not boxing out? Still a lot of selfish play and not rebounding. Sad.
 

 
Sums it up nicely so far.

Can’t catch the ball

keep chucking up 3s and miss