GW +8.5 on Fan Duel.

O/U 141.5.

Richmond Spiders

Date/Time: Wednesday January 4th @ 7:00 PM ET at the Robins Center in Richmond, VA. The arena seats 7,201 people.
TV: ESPN+
Preseason Ranks: 95th (KenPom), 116th (Bart Torvik), 101st (Sports Illustrated)
2021-22 Record: 24-13, 10-8 (6th in A10)
2022-23 Projected Record: 17-14, 10-8 (T-5th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 53-41, although Richmond has won the last five meetings and 11 of the past 13 games overall. Last year we fell 84-71 in a high-scoring, high-possession affair. Despite what the score might suggest, we didn't do a lot of things wrong. GW posted a respectable 106 offensive rating. We could have gone to the line a bit more, but the team shot 41% from the field, 35% from 3, and 85% from the line. While we were outrebounded by 5, we did pull down 7 offensive boards. Most impressively, we turned the ball over just four times all game. Those splits + putting up 71 points should be enough to have a chance at a win. Unfortunately, the team just didn't show up the way it needed to defensively, something we know all to well watching the program the past several years. The Spiders shot a scorching 56% from the field, 42% from 3, and 82% from the line while only turning it over 9 times themselves. If I'm being honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we see similar shooting splits from the Spiders despite virtually a new-look roster. I do think we have a chance to shoot a bit better from the field compared to last year though.

Joe led the way with 29 points and 7 rebounds (11-22 FG), including a play where he crossed up Isaiah Wilson (who's no longer on the team) and splashed in a 3. Bray added 19 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals, while JB rounded out the double figure scorers with 13 points and 3 assists but was easily the most inefficient of the three. BA failed to score in 17 minutes off the bench. Given the performance that Bishop and Adams had in last year's game, I would imagine there is a little bit of motivation to perform better tomorrow.

Offensive Efficiency: 156th (KenPom), 217th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 76th (KenPom), 67th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 303rd (KenPom), 301st (Bart Torvik)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 211th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 133rd
Rim & 3 Rate: 80% (113th)

Strengths:
Fouls Per Game (30th)
Three Pointers Per Game (T-31st)
Three Point Attempts Per Game (T-45th)
Three Point Percentage (65th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game (T-69th)
Field Goal Percentage Defense (76th)
Scoring Defense (T-82nd)
Effective Field Goal Percentage (89th)

Weaknesses:
Free Throws Made Per Game (261st)
Free Throw Attempts Per Game (277th)
Turnovers Forced Per Game (T-301st)
Fastbreak Points (316th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game (335th)

Key Returning Players:
Tyler Burton (Senior; Uxbridge, MA) 16.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1 apg, 1.1 spg; 46% FG, 37% 3-PT, 79% FT
      Last Season @ GW: 17 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal; 5-8 FG, 2-2 3-PT, 5-5 FT in 22 minutes.

Key Losses:
Grant Golden (Graduated; Winchester, VA) 13.7 ppg, 6 rpg, 2.9 apg; 51% FG, 28% 3-PT, 71% FT
Jacob Gilyard (Graduated; Kansas City, MO) 13.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 5.4 apg, 2.9 spg; 40% FG, 36% 3-PT, 86% FT
Nathan Cayo (Graduated; Montreal, Canada) 9.1 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.8 apg; 56% FG, 47% FT
Nick Sherod (Graduated; Richmond, VA) 6 ppg, 1.8 rpg; 33% FG, 34% 3-PT, 75% FT

Comments:
It's not about how you start but how you finish. That was the quote that encapsulated Richmond's 2021-22 season. Picked second in the 2021 Atlantic 10 Preseason Poll, expectations were sky high for Spider fans and a squad that had significant experience up and down the roster. Richmond returned 86.1% of their minutes last year, a top 50 mark in the country per Bart Torvik. Having so many upperclassmen on a roster can be a double-edged sword. There is without a doubt a major advantage when a team knows the ins and outs of the Princeton system Mooney runs on offense, something that isn't learned overnight. On the other hand, bringing back the same team year after year leads to a natural ceiling being reached at some point along the way. Look no further than St. Bonaventure, the team that was picked above the Spiders (more on the Bonnies next month).

To Richmond's credit, the veteran squad bent but did not break. The Spiders got off to an unsatisfactory start during OOC play, beginning the year 3-4. There were a number of solid mid-major programs on the schedule but Richmond lost a number of key Q2 games that would have possibly moved the needle a bit. There was the 11 point neutral-site loss against Utah State, a game that Richmond was winning by 6 at halftime. A week later, they fell in a close contest against Drake, yet another contest that they were winning at halftime. I'm sure going into the year the expectation was that Maryland and Mississippi State were going to be a lot better than they ended up being, but Richmond ended up dropping both games (the MS State game was lost in overtime).

At the end of the day, Richmond did go 6-9 in Q2 games, which wasn't terrible (the committee definitely cares about good wins first before bad losses it appears), but there was a lack of Q1 games on their schedule to overcome any bad losses. Unfortunately, that bad loss came on day 1 of A10 play as the Spiders lost a head-scratching game at home against St. Joe's. It wasn't just that they lost, but the fact they lost by an astounding 27 points.

Honestly, that problem Mooney's squad ran into has carried over to this year for A10 squads in general. At least last year Davidson, SLU, and VCU did enough to earn Q1 status depending on location. No A10 squad will have such an opportunity this year.

Going into the conference tournament, many had felt Richmond's chances of qualifying for the NCAAs felt like a long shot despite the hype going into the year. The Spiders finished with a respectable 10-8 conference record, but weren't going into DC with much momentum, having lost their final two games of the regular season. The window for contending for the NCAAs appeared to be closing, but Richmond did the near impossible. They won four games in four days, and only the VCU game was a win by more than two possessions so the super seniors had to play heavy minutes four days in a row. The Spiders didn't stop there, as they knocked off Iowa for the A10's first win in the tournament in four years (when URI and St. Bona won games back in 2018).

It was nice to see Richmond's senior class go out on a high note given their impacts on the program from the time they enrolled (although it felt like all of them had stayed for eight years). Jacob Gilyard led the nation in minutes per game, was second in steals per game (finishing his career with the all-time steals record), and had the third best assist turnover ratio nationally. Grant Golden was so tough to contain as the primary big operating the Princeton offense from the top of the key. Not only was he a savvy passer, but he could fake the handoff and roll straight to the hoop, where he had the 79th best FG percentage. He finished his career as the all-time leader in games played (161) in Richmond History and had the most defensive rebounds. Nathan Cayo was the consummate glue guy who finished right behind Golden for #2 all-time in games played. Finally, Nick Sherod finished with the third most 3-PT field goals made in program history. I'm happy that he was able to come back at all given after there was a good chance he wasn't going to be able to play at all having suffered multiple ACL injuries over his college career. In many ways, I think of his post-injury career a bit like Amir. Both were solid contributors when healthy early on, but injuries took a toll on their ability to be effective offensively. It was clear Sherod wasn't the same player last year - he finished last year shooting just 33% from the field.

To put it in perspective, those four guys had a combined 611 games under their belt when last year came to an end. It was always going to be tough to replace that kind of production. St. Bonaventure, Davidson, and Loyola are similarly rebuilding this year. Add in the fact that there are half a dozen new coaches in the league and it's not a huge surprise the A10 is having a down year. Dayton was expected to contend despite still having largely a young-ish roster.

In some ways, this season has the chance to be a lot less stressful for Richmond. Now that expectations aren't where they were last year and the Spiders got to where they wanted to be in 2021-22, a team with new pieces has the chance to perform better in areas that previous teams may have not been able to. As noted above, the Princeton Offense takes time to master, especially from a timing/rhythm perspective. Thus to be competitive this season, Mooney needed to embrace the defensive end more in order to remain competitive. So far, so good as Richmond ranks in the top 100 in points allowed, opposing field goal percentage, and in fouls committed. This year's squad may be the best on D in nearly three years - the year Richmond was projected to make the NCAA tournament before COVID shut things down (crazy that was so long ago!)

Mooney's zone defense has been a bit hit-or-miss over the years but this year's roster has the chance to make things tough on a nightly basis. I kid you not, but this Richmond squad has 10 players who are between 6'4" and 6'7". The defensive versatility that this roster possesses would make any coach swoon. Of course, the leader on both sides of the ball is Tyler Burton, a guy who could definitely make an NBA team after a training camp invite. Burton was everywhere last year - whether it was rebounding the ball, driving the ball and going to the line, or pulling up from 3 - he's 38% on the year with 32 makes. Burton finished with the 36th most double-doubles last year. This year, he is even more of an alpha as the clear #1 option on the team:

Field Goal Attempts (T-70th)
Field Goals (T-54th)
Minutes Per Game (40th)
Points (T-49th)
Points Per Game (38th)
Rebounds (T-98th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game (T-32nd)
Rebounds Per Game (T-93rd)

While Richmond did lose four highly productive players to graduation this offseason, they do return quite a few role players:

Andre Gustavson has played a key role in the rotation for a while now as a part-time starter. Truthfully, he will likely never be a primary scoring option, but does a good job doing a bit of everything and has always been a reliable on-ball defender. To his credit, he is shooting 11/25 from 3 on the year, which would be far and away a a career best.

Matt Grace had some big moments late in the season. He finished with 12 points in the A10 semis against Dayton which was just his third double figure performance of the season but he showed potential to be a breakout guy in his final year of eligibility after playing behind Golden in previous years. Grace can shoot it a bit from 3 and can of course facilitate in the halfcourt like any bigs in Mooney's system. He is Richmond's best shot blocker as well. Last year, Grace came off the bench to score 7 against GW. Pretty much any big is a concern to go off against GW, but Grace could certainly be that guy.

Connor Crabtree, who began his career at Tulane, has had poor injury luck like Sherod over his career. He opted to get multiple hip surgeries during his sit out year (back when that was mandatory) and then fractured his foot the following year in December when he was eligible to play. He's a good shooter when healthy but it's tough to expect him to be anything more than a deeper rotation guy who can provide leadership at this point in his career.

Dji Bailey is a NC native like Crabtree who didn't see much playing time playing behind a bunch of seasoned vets, but showed strong rim attacking ability. He took 75% of his shots from inside the arc and failed to make any of this three last season. It's likely Bailey continues to play a role from off the bench this year.

Finally, Marcus Randolph figures to get more playing time this year. Given he only attempted seven shots all of last year and averaged just 3 minutes a game when he played (likely garbage time), I will throw his shooting splits out the window last year - he certainly has the frame to contribute a lot more this year. So far he is 8/15 from 3 - I would think he would get more opportunities moving forward.

Entering their first years playing with Richmond are redshirt freshman Jason Nelson, Wofford transfer Isaiah Bigelow, Lafayette transfer Neal Quinn, and The Citadel transfer Jason Roche.

With Gilyard out of eligibility, Mooney did not really address the point guard position this offseason meaning Nelson was going to be given the opportunity to earn all the minutes he can handle this season. While he hasn't been the most efficient (understandable), it's likely that Nelson will make the all-rookie team this year. He has posted a 1.5 assist to turnover ratio and provided good on-ball defense to go with his 10 points per game average.

Bigelow is not as good of a shooter as I was expecting coming from a program like Wofford. He settles for a few too many jumpers. Given he's a good FT shooter (82%) I'm surprised he doesn't take it to the rim more. At the very least, he will be tough on the glass and provide versatility on both ends.

Quinn was brought in to play the Golden role in the offense. He can't really shoot the long jumper like Golden could, so we may want to play off him a bit. Quinn can certainly pass the ball (2.9 apg on the year) and is strong taking it to the basket, but we will want to discourage those drives.

Roche is unsurprisingly the designated shooter on the team. I say that's not surprising because he's coming from a program in The Citadel that was pretty much about outscoring the other team at all costs because defense is optional. He leads the team in 3P% (45%) and is second in makes at 30 behind Burton - not to mention the fact that he is 12/13 from the FT line this year. Roche is definitely a guy to keep an eye on at all times.

This will obviously be a tough game as we continue a lengthy road trip away from home. Hopefully one day our defense will be strong enough to contain Richmond but it doesn't feel like that's going to happen this season. The Spiders are shooting 36% from deep on the year despite everything they lost although they do exhibit a slight weakness from the FT line (just 69%). Force Bigelow and Nelson to take more shots than they would like. We will without a doubt have to keep operating at a high level offensively to keep up. Being able to cover the spread would be considered a success.

Projected Score: Richmond 73, GW 65. 22% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 13.7% chance to open conference play 2-0. Richmond is a 7.5 point home favorite.

Call me an idiot, but, I like the way that we match up in this game. I will save everyone the time, "You are an idiot!!!"
My non scientific concern is that we don't every put two good games back-to-back. As people have said in other threads, we cannot afford to have to many passengers. We need everyone to have bright moments.We have to limit empty possessions and careless turnovers.If we can stay in the game  we can break them.
 

Last edited by russianthistle (1/04/2023 3:52 pm)

GW73 wrote:

According to GW record book it's GW 63, Richmond 42.  The Gwsports site used to have a link to archive of head to head meetings, but a noticed a few years ago it wasn't getting udated. And this season, I can't find them at all on gwsports site. Maybe someone on board can show me how to find them, if they still exist.
Anyway, a minor point in your fantastic previews. Thanks for taking the time to write and share them.

You can find all the head to head matchups in the record book, which is in the "more" section of the top ribbon on the MBB section of gwsports.com. Here's the link to the record book: https://s3.amazonaws.com/gwsports.com/documents/2021/8/23/Men_s_Basketball_Record_Book.pdf. It's a considerable way down but all the matchups with Richmond since 1925-26 are there

Last edited by gwstudent2024 (1/04/2023 4:41 pm)

GW73 wrote:

dmvpirhana, I love your previews. You could move them to a paid site and I would subscribe. But one quick edit. When you mention head-to-head meetings, I think you might be using College Basketball  Reference site. Unfortunately, it doesn't go back to the beginning of GW men's basketball. For example, in the Richmond preview, you have it GW 53, Richmond 41. According to GW record book it's GW 63, Richmond 42.  The Gwsports site used to have a link to archive of head to head meetings, but a noticed a few years ago it wasn't getting udated. And this season, I can't find them at all on gwsports site. Maybe someone on board can show me how to find them, if they still exist.
Anyway, a minor point in your fantastic previews. Thanks for taking the time to write and share them.

You can find updated head to head information in the Record Book on the GW Sports website under men's basketball and the tab more+ to the far right. You have to scroll through the record book to page 31 and beyond.

We are playing well again (except Adams). 

Bishop is so under control.  They can’t guard him and he is getting to his spots with ease.

Also a nice move and dish from Brown to Qwanzi for three.

Edwards playing great on both ends. Dean battling hard inside  (Richmond did the Jamion Christian thing of going inside two of their first three possessions and then when Dean got the stop the third time they tried, they’ve never gone back to it)

Edit: forgot to mentor Ricky, who hit a three and just had a monster dunk).  Good guys up 25-20.

Last edited by Free Quebec (1/04/2023 7:27 pm)

Adams new hairstyle? Affecting his game?

Nice first half. Hawaii didn’t go well for them, but it somehow seems to have made them better.

First half thoughts:
Do people in Richmond really dip their pizza in ranch dressing? Gross. I´d rather watch replays of Joe Theisman´s leg getting destroyed than see that ad again.
If GW could keep Richmond off the offensive glass, this game would be a blow-out. Fortunately. Richmond is pretty sloppy with the ball, by my count they are on track to break the NCAA record for turnovers in the paint.
The threes fell at first, but when the stopped falling GW still insisted on jacking them up. Might be an issue to discuss at the half.
Bishop is a baller, but getting to the line may be his best atribute (especially since he is hitting his ft´s now).
Seriously, do people in Richmond dip pizza in ranch sauce?!?!? I hate to focus on the topic, but this is an affront to all that is good and decent in the world.
 

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