George Mason Patriots

Date/Time: Monday January 16th @ 4:00 PM ET at EagleBank Arena in Fairfax, VA.
TV: CBSSN
Preseason Ranks: 104th (KenPom), 102nd (Bart Torvik), 80th (Sports Illustrated)
2021-22 Record: 14-16, 7-9 (9th in A10)
2022-23 Projected Record: 18-13, 10-8 (6th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 22-9, although Mason has come out on top in three of the past four meetings. In last season's meeting in Fairfax, George Mason won 69-62. GW was up by 5 at halftime, and was up 6 with just over 5 minutes left in the contest. Looking back at the play-by-play it's tough to relive just how poor the shot selection was in the final minutes of the game. I'm angry just looking at it. With about 2 minutes left, we were behind by 3 against Mason. During this span, we attempted an unfathomable number of three pointers (three out of the four possessions we had to be exact). Obviously after yesterday's contest against SLU where the team was settling for three after three, we need to do better about getting to the basket. This team is clearly capable of doing that as that's what worked in the first half and late in the game to get us back within a bucket. At the very least, last season's game should be a reminder that threes should be shot as last resort or only taken if they are truly good shots. Joe led the way with 18 points in last year's game in Fairfax while JB added 16 and Bray chipped in with 12 (in fact, Freeman had the first seven points and accounted for all of GW's scoring for the first eight minutes of the game). 

Offensive Efficiency: 141st (KenPom), 176th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 101st (KenPom), 118th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 270th (KenPom), 266th (Bart Torvik)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 193rd
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 71st
Rim & 3 Rate: 79% (141st)

Strengths (OOC Play):
Three Point Percentage Defense (20th)
Three Point Percentage (48th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game (50th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage (55th)
Rebound Margin (64th)
Three Pointers Per Game (T-64th)
Assists Per Game (T-77th)
Field Goal Percentage Defense (87th)
Field Goal Percentage (88th)
Rebounds Per Game (T-90th)
Blocks Per Game (T-93rd)

Weaknesses (OOC Play):
Free Throws Made Per Game (252nd)
Turnovers Per Game (298th)
Fastbreak Points (303rd)
Turnovers Forced Per Game (T-321st)
Free Throw Percentage (330th)
Turnover Margin (342nd)
Steals Per Game (350th)

Key Returning Players:
Josh Oduro (Senior; Gainesville, VA) 17.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.7 bpg; 53% FG, 29% 3-PT, 70% FT
      Last Season @ Mason: 27 points, 14 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks; 8-16 FG, 0-1 3-PT, 11-14 FT in 38 minutes.

DeVon Cooper (Graduate Student; Louisville, KY) 11.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.1 apg; 43% FG, 41% 3-PT, 74% FT
      Last Season @ Mason: 3 points, 2 rebounds; 1-6 FG, 1-6 3-PT in 30 minutes.

Davonte Gaines (Senior; Buffalo, NY) 10.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.6 apg; 46% FG, 40% 3-PT, 76% FT
      Last Season @ Mason: 7 points, 8 rebounds; 1-3 FG, 0-2 3-PT, 5-6 FT in 28 minutes.

Key Losses:
D'Shawn Schwartz (Graduated; Colorado Springs, CO) 15.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.1 apg; 46% FG, 38% 3-PT, 74% FT
Xavier Johnson (Transferred to Southern Illinois; Germantown, MD) 7.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.6 apg, 1.1 spg; 39% FG, 34% 3-PT, 73% FT

Comments:
We enter year 10 of the "Revolutionary Rivalry". It's honestly hard to believe Mason has been in the A10 for ten years now. Hopefully one of these years the rivalry will actually mean something. Every year either Mason is better or GW is better but neither team is good at the same time. There have been some close games that have made things interesting, but I never felt like we were playing for something more - it was the same feeling of any close game against the average opponent. I personally find Kim English and the Patriot squad likable. The closest thing that annoyed me about GMU was that their fans were extra whiny after they won in Fairfax. You almost wouldn't be able to tell that they had won the game with the way they complained. Even then though they aren't anywhere near the most annoying in the conference like the Daytons and SLUs of the world with their superiority complexes.

The thought of the "Revolutionary Rivalry" sparks two thoughts: 1) as someone who likes "revolutionaries" for GW's new team name, does this rivalry basically mean that the name is out of the running, and 2) we should play James Madison way more often, if not every year. Not just because they are pretty good this year (though the Mezie revenge game would have added an extra twist!) but a presidents game would be cool.

Back to Mason. Last season, Kim English made some noise in year 1 as head coach of the Patriots. I'm not just talking about his efforts in the transfer portal from the day he was hired, but his results as a coach as well - Mason improved by nearly 100 spots from their KenPom preseason ranking. He won his first four games as coach, most notably against a probably overrated #20 Maryland squad that nearly lost to us just days before (it seems like the Terps have experienced a similar fall off this year as well). Mason did end up losing five in a row after that point, but a 7-6 record during OOC play was a success in my book (especially with everything going on with COVID). English was also able to use his contacts to get a key game against the national champion Kansas Jayhawks as seemingly all of Mason's opponents were coming down with the 'rona. The Patriots played KU pretty close before falling by 9.

Unfortunately, an impressive first year leads to heightened expectations for year #2. George Mason was picked 5th in the preseason A10 poll and was being discussed as a team that could play their way into the NCAA tournament with the talent they had on paper. An opening loss to #15 Auburn was understandable, although I don't think the Tigers are top 25 good this year personally from when I've watched them. The Patriots did notch solid wins over Longwood and American, but things fell apart a bit during their MTE tournament in the Virgin Islands (sounds similar to Diamond Head!). The Patriots went 0-3, including losses to Boston College and Buffalo. Both of those teams are currently ranked below us in KenPom.

Just when it appeared that all the hype around English was fading, GMU proceeded to win six of their final seven games to close out OOC play, including notable wins against Toledo and Tulane. The Patriots currently sit at 3-2 in conference, with most of their contests being competitive (minus Loyola, but the Ramblers have had a not so nice start in their inaugural year in the league - I don't believe any of their games have been kept within single digits).

It's no surprise that English is a defense-first coach. When you spend time as an assistant under guys like Frank Haith at Tulsa, Tad Boyle at Colorado, and of course Rick Barnes at Tennessee (the Vols currently have the #1 defense this year per KenPom) you will definitely learn the importance of locking down first and foremost on D. As an analytics guy, English prioritizes taking away the 3. GMU had the 20th best 3-PT defense during OOC play - maybe that will encourage us even more to go inside! Of course, running a team off the three point line is only truly effective if you have bigs who are adept at not only protecting the rim, but controlling the glass as well. The Patriots have multiple players on the frontcourt who are able to thrive in both categories, which explains their top 100 rate in blocks and top 50 rate in defensive rebounding. During the JC era, the lack of rim protection and rebounding was what was keeping us from truly being effective defensively (which we are still seeing this year as well with relatively the same team). Overall, Mason plays sound defense - they don't force a lot of steals (bottom 15 nationally) or turnovers, but they hold their own on that end.

English had another successful offseason in the portal but the center of the team is still the man in the middle, Josh Oduro. Oduro was brought in during the Dave Paulsen era and English was able to successfully get him to remain with the program after he entered his name in the transfer portal. Oduro took another step forward production-wise in year #3, averaging just under 18 points per game (tops in the A10). He did more than just score though as he was second on the team in rebounds (he's 44th in double doubles this year), fifth in assists, second in steals, and also averaged nearly two blocks per game, good for 83rd in the country last season. It came as little surprise that he finished first-team all-A10 last year and had A10 player of the year buzz coming into this season. He took a bit of a step back early this year but seems like he's back to his old self as of late, averaging nearly 22 points a game in the last three games. The above statline in last year's contest at Mason shows his potential impact and GMU might have won the game at GW had he played.

What makes Mason a tough guard is that English has successfully recruited strong three point shooters (Mason was 48th in 3P% OOC and 64th in made threes) around Oduro to make it tough to consistently double team him. Although Schwartz is out of eligibility, Davonte Gaines (Tennessee) and DeVon Cooper (Morehead State) are back having transferred into the program last year. Gaines is a double-double threat on a nightly basis. He led the team in rebounding last year (70th nationally in rebounding last season) while shooting 40% from 3. It's worth mentioning that he's missed the past four games due to a wrist injury and is questionable for tomorrow. Cooper himself shot 41% from distance (22nd nationally) while leading the team in makes with 79 (86th nationally) during the 2021-22 season. Both players are capable of moving the ball offensively as well. Their collective three point shooting is down from last year, but they are still threats.

Also returning from last year are guard Ronald Polite III and forwards Malik Henry and Blake Jones.

Polite is enjoying a breakout season. In previous seasons Polite has had a rough time shooting the ball but has made nice strides on that front and he has always had good positional size. I don't follow Mason closely, but I was surprised that he won the job to be the PG of the team this year - he averages nearly four assists a game on the season.

Henry and Jones likely remain as fringe rotation players. Henry is the more effective finisher down low, while Jones provides a stretch forward option - although the Aussie has struggled to shoot it since arriving in Fairfax.

Mason's transfer additions from this year are Victor Bailey Jr. (Tennessee/Oregon), Ginika "John" Ojiako (Virginia Tech), and Saquan Singleton (New Mexico).

Bailey is another guy who English was familiar with from his time coaching him in Knoxville. He is their best three point shooter by percentage at nearly 49% (19th nationally in OOC) and leads the team in makes as well (93rd in nation OOC) - he has done a good job of replacing Schwartz in the offense although he doesn't have the same height Schwartz provided for defensive versatility. Bailey is also an 80% FT shooter - one of the few good ones on the team as Mason doesn't fare well at the line.

Ojiako provides critical depth up front. Last year, it was all Oduro and pretty much nobody else. English now has the luxury of resting Oduro to keep him fresh - he averages four minutes less per game compared to last year. They can also play together giving Mason considerable size in the frontcourt. Ojiako is a traditional big who is effective scoring near the rim but is a spotty FT shooter and adds a few boards a game.

Singleton returns to the East Coast (native of NY) after attending a JUCO in Kansas and playing two seasons for some subpar Lobo squads. He's a useful utility piece who can play the glue guy role and largely succeeds as a scorer by going downhill driving to the basket.

Finally, English brought in a couple of impact freshmen in the backcourt. Devin Dinkins (3-star) and Justyn Fernandez (4-star) were highly touted prospects out of high school and figure to make larger impacts down the road. This year, they will likely see some spot minutes here and there. I thought coming into the year Dinkins was going to start at the point right away, but Polite's emergence means Dinkins can be eased in. He's had a couple scoring outbursts in year 1 - including 14 points against Coppin State and 15 against Buffalo. Dinkins is also one of their better FT shooters so he can play down the stretch in close games where Mason is ahead. Fernandez, one of Mason's highest rated commits in school history, is an explosive guard who can score at all three levels. He joined the team early last year and redshirted. I'm a bit surprised again that he hasn't played more, but a career best 9 points in 22 minutes against Davidson may indicate a bigger role in the second half of the season.

The keys to the game are the same as usual - the bigs need to stay out of foul trouble and we need to keep pace on the boards. Having better depth would definitely have helped against a poor FT shooting team like Mason - if we foul the right guys, having more fouls available would have been ideal. The two other keys tomorrow are getting to the hoop offensively and making sure we fight over screens along the perimeter on defense. We did a better job with the latter in the second half of the SLU game but this will be especially important against a good shooting team like George Mason who has a number of threats from the perimeter.

Projected Score: Mason 76, Washington 69. 27% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 17.1% chance to move to 3-2 in conference.
 

and student section seats for this game - behind the backboards - are $10 
 

GW starting to rain down the 3s on Mason

14-5  GW  

2 points in the last 7:45 of the game. Another huge scoring drought to let them claw their way back into the game

What if the droughts were only half as long? ;-)

Death, taxes, and Gw fans who only post when things are going badly. 

I’ll say, I like the fact that even though the offense went cold, we continued to battle on defense and the boards. Seems like they learned something from last game.

Let’s hope they can get the offense going in the second half.

Losing lead because of Turnovers. Way too many. But some people like them.

Hats off to CC. This is largely the same personnel on the floor as last year with Max and without Bray and Bam and we rarely  saw that level of successful defensive pressure.   Hope we keep our sea legs.

And now Adams gets tackled on a rebound but doesn’t get the call.   That would be a foul in the NFL.

What is Noel doing there! You get the offensive rebound with 1:20 left you pull that out, not take some stupid fadeaway shot.