Going to be away for the remainder of OOC season, so thought I'd post the final OOC preview beforehand. Happy holidays everyone!

Vermont Catamounts

Date/Time: Tuesday December 31st @ 2:00 PM at The Patrick Gym in Burlington, VT.
Record Last Year: 27-7, 14-2 (1st in America East)
Preseason Ranks: 78th (KenPom), 89th (Bart Torvik), 62nd (Sports Illustrated), 76th (CBS) - there seems to be a consensus regarding their placement I would be inclined to agree they should be slotted around 75th or so.
Projected Record: 24-7, 14-2 (1st in America East)
Postseason Last Year: NCAA as a 13 seed; lost to Florida State 76-69 in the 1st round of the West region. The Catamounts definitely gave the Seminoles a fight the entire game, and are positioned to be a nuisance for their next first round opponent barring a surprising collapse during the conference tournament. I don't believe they've done enough to be an at-large so far, and unfortunately their conference won't get them any chances at good wins.
Coaching Record: John Becker, 193-84 in 8 seasons at Vermont, including 3 NCAA, 2 NIT, and and 3 CBI appearances. Somehow I'm surprised the NCAA total isn't higher, because it certainly feels like it should be more. Vermont has qualified for a postseason tournament every year Becker has been coach. During his tenure, they have never finished lower than 3rd in the America East and have won the regular season title four times.

All Time Record: 0-2, and both losses have been by double digits. Last season, we fell 69-53 at the Smith Center. Arnaldo had a nice double-double with 14 points and 11 rebounds, with Justin adding 10 points (I guess if you can't beat 'em, might as well join 'em - kidding of course), but little else went right. DJ shot a cold 4-17 from the field. We had just 5 assists for the game, and even more surprising, Juice accounted for 3 of them.

Offensive Efficiency: 145th (KenPom), 172nd (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 48th (KenPom), 48th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 278th (KenPom), 276th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Anthony Lamb (SR; Rochester, NY) 21.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.3 apg; 52% FG, 37% 3-pt, 76% FT
      Last season against us: 16 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 blocks; 6-13 FG, 0-2 3-pt, 4-5 FT in 35 minutes.

Stefan 'Stef' Smith (JR; Unionville, CAN) 12.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.5 apg; 41% FG, 37% 3-pt, 80% FT
      Last season against us: 10 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists; 3-7 FG, 2-3 3-pt, 2-3 FT in 29 minutes.

Key Losses:
Ernie Duncan (Graduated; Evansville, IN) 13.8 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2 apg; 48% FG, 44% 3-pt, 83% FT

Comments:
Vermont has been the class of the America East for years now, and there is no reason to believe the Catamounts won't be making a return to the NCAA tournament this season once March rolls around. How John Becker has not ended up at a bigger school by now has been a big surprise. I thought he could have been a serious candidate for us before JC was hired with his ties to coaching at Gallaudet and Catholic (the latter his alma mater), not to mention the fact that he holds a master's in business technology from GW. He also served as a tennis coach at Gallaudet (whose school colors are apparently also Buff and Blue). Not sure how accurate the Wikipedia article of him is, but if he truly went from 6-44 in two seasons at D3 Gallaudet to 201-89 at D1 Vermont that is truly incredible (and perhaps has never been done before), While having Becker at GW could have been great, can you blame him for not leaving (apart from the weather)? It's not a stretch to say that Vermont has become the Gonzaga of their conference, like Texas Southern of the SWAC or New Mexico State of the WAC. I can also understand not wanting to succeed a former Catamount player in Mojo here, and of course ML. Becker has been outstanding though.

A big part to their success this season will rest on the shoulders of senior forward Anthony Lamb, who tested the NBA waters this season before ultimately deciding to return for his senior year. Lamb is a serious matchup problem, being able to score from anywhere on the court and he should enjoy a stellar senior season. Lamb is one of just 9 mid-major players to make the Naismith Trophy Player of the Year Watch List. He is special.

Although the eldest of the three Duncan brothers has graduated, Everett Duncan (a senior) and Robin Duncan (a sophomore) were somewhat expected to replace their brother's production with bigger roles this season. However, thus far it appears the Catamounts are missing the shooting from Ernie. The team has a whole is just shooting 29% from deep, down six percentage points from last year's 35%. Everett (27%) and Robin (21%) have been among the Catamounts to struggle with their shot from deep. Although Robin's production is still unproven at this point, Everett shot 37% from deep last year so maybe a positive regression towards the mean is in the future. Both Duncan brothers are good rebounders, but differ in that Everett is more of a scorer, while Robin serves as one of the main facilitators for the team.

The guards who have shot the ball well for Vermont so far in the backcourt are Canadian junior Stefan 'Stef' Smith, former walk-on turned scholarship player Ben Shungu, and freshman Eric Beckett. Smith in particular is the one to watch out for here, as he has canned 34 threes on the season - that's almost as many as Jamison (36) and he's doing it at a similar 41% clip. Smith is also second on the team in scoring with just over 13 points a contest. He leads the team in assists and is their best on-ball defender as well, averaging 1.3 steals a game. Shungu has battled some hamstring injuries thus far, but has shot the ball well in limited attempts and is a great rebounder for his size. He can also distribute the ball some, but has shown tendencies to cough up the ball at times (a rare case on a team usually very secure with the ball). Beckett isn't likely to see too much time as a freshman, but the Canadian has shot the ball well in limited time. He could become the three point specialist they are looking for down the road.

An added dimension to Vermont's attack this year is their bolstered frontline, which has helped offset some shooting slumps. Sophomore Ryan Davis and former Alabama/Ohio State transfer Daniel Giddens (even though he didn't play very much, I'm sure he at least enjoyed some good football throughout college) lead this group. Davis is enjoying a second year breakout, showing the ability to be a stretch big (10 made threes at a 39% clip) and turning out perhaps to be the most efficient Catamount offensively with decent rebounding skill. Giddens is a monster on the glass and can convert on shots close to the rim. Those kinds of down transfers don't come around very often, especially to a school like Vermont, but winning consistently can make any place desirable.

The remainder of the rotation will consist of junior wing Bailey Patella, freshman guard from Oregon Aaron Deloney, and Oklahoma State transfer Duncan DeMuth. None of these guys are primary options on offense, but Patella has shown the most shooting the ball and rebounding it. I wouldn't expect these guys to play more than 10 minutes or so unless they are feeling it, or the game gets out of reach.

This is going to be good practice for the young guys, but I'm not sure I would have ended the OOC with a tough road game like this. Especially to end the year - if they were trying to find as cold a place as possible to end the decade, they succeeded with flying colors...

Predicted Score: Vermont 68, GW 57. 12% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us just an 8.7% chance to win this road game. It's worth noting that Vermont will have more time to prep for this game than us with the Longwood game in between. Their offense doesn't scare me (they take the 43rd most threes, but I'm confident we can shut down the attempts), but ranking 48th in defensive efficiency makes me wonder how much we could struggle to put points up on the board on the road. Vermont is 12th in defensive effective field goal percentage, and 5th in defensive two point field goal percentage. Hoping for a hot shooting performance from someone and that we can keep this within single digits - that would be a step in the right direction.