St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Date/Time: Sunday January 5th, 2020 @ 4:00 PM at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington DC.
Record Last Year: 18-16, 12-6 (4th in A10)
Preseason Ranks: 127th (KenPom), 94th (Bart Torvik), 139th (Sports Illustrated), 88th (CBS)
Projected Record: 17-14, 9-9 (T-7th in A10)
Postseason Last Year: None.
Coaching Record: Mark Schmidt, 210-168 in 12 seasons at St. Bonaventure, including 2 NCAA appearances, and an NIT and CBI appearance. Previously went 82-90 in 6 seasons at Robert Morris. Schmidt has been a pretty consistent winner at Bonaventure of late, winning at least 18 games in each of the past six seasons. I'm actually surprised at the lack of postseason appearances though. Naturally, with both he and JC starting off at NEC schools, it's hard to not compare the two. Schmidt just won 48% of his overall games, and 53% of conference games at RMU, while JC won 52% of his overall games, and 63% of conference games at MSM. It seems like Schmidt has grown as a coach coming over to SBU, and I hope JC is able to do the same here too in the future, with us in the consistent top half of the league conversation.

All Time Record: 35-25, but the Bonnies have won three of the past four contests (we went 5-5 against them in the 2010s overall). In last year's tilt (a 64-58 loss at home), Maceo went off for 28 points with 5 made threes and went 11-13 overall from the line. He accounted for nearly half of our overall points, and hopefully another strong performance is in the books.  

Offensive Efficiency: 157th (KenPom), 139th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 125th (KenPom), 131st (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 326th (KenPom), 322nd (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Kyle Lofton (SO; Hillside, NJ) 14.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.7 apg; 44% FG, 33% 3-pt, 84% FT
       Last Year Against Us: 10 points, 2 rebounds; 3-8 FG, 0-3 3-pt, 4-5 FT in 22 minutes.

Osun Osunniyi (SO; Pleasantville, NJ) 7.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.7 bpg; 57% FG, 67% FT
       Last Year Against Us: 18 points, 16 rebounds, 3 blocks; 8-9 FG, 2-2 FT in 40 minutes.

Dominick Welch (SO; Cheektowaga, NY) 7.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg; 39% FG, 36% 3-pt, 50% FT
       Last Year Against Us: 8 points, 7 rebounds; 3-6 FG, 2-5 3-pt in 30 minutes.

Key Losses:
Courtney Stockard (Graduated; St. Louis, MO) 15.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.5 apg; 41% FG, 30% 3-pt, 76% FT
LaDarien Griffin (Graduated; Jacksonville, FL) 10.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg; 49% FG, 20% 3-pt, 74% FT
Jalen Poyser (Transferred to McNeese State; Malton, CAN) 8.9 ppg, 2 rpg; 40% FG, 32% 3-pt, 84% FT

Comments:
The Bonnies came into the season with somewhat high expectations. They were expected to be a clear tier below VCU, Davidson, and Dayton, but comparable to Rhode Island in that they had the chance to get in the tournament conversation should they put together a strong OOC performance. Unfortunately, things didn't get off to the best of starts, with the Bonnies falling to Ohio (by 12), Vermont (by 2), Carm's Siena squad (by 13), and in-state rival Canisius (by 4). It's easy to explain these losses as the Bonnies were missing some of their key players earlier in the year. As they started to get healthy, they started to win the games they were expected to win. Before their most recent loss to Buffalo, they Bonnies had won 7 games in a row, and while their NCAA hopes are now win the conference tournament or bust, they are without a doubt going to be a tough out during conference season.

St. Bonaventure's success will be dependent on their large sophomore class, headlined by point guard Kyle Lofton. Lofton had a fantastic freshman year, excelling at running the pick and roll. He almost never came off the floor, finishing 20th in minutes per game nationally, and earned a spot on the A10 rookie team last season. With Stockard gone, Lofton will be the clear #1 option to orchestrate the offense. It appears that his increased usage has led to decreased efficiency. While he is still averaging over 14 ppg, he is shooting just 38% from the floor, and 25% from deep. As long as we are keeping him from getting to the rim, I'm fine with him getting shots as long as he's not hot shooting the ball. We do need to keep an eye on his passing ability though - he averages 6.6 apg, which ranks #1 in the A10 (Armel is 5th). Lofton's roll partner Osun Osunniyi (another A10 all-rookie last year) will be a load in the paint. Osunniyi's return to the lineup has been a big reason for Bonaventure's improvement on both ends of the floor. Averaging 10 points and 9 rebounds a game after returning from a right knee injury, he is a double-double threat on any given night, so AT's health will be important in this one to neutralize him. Defensively, Osun is the best shot-blocker in the league, averaging just under 3 blocks a game so it won't be easy to finish at the rim. Dominick Welch and former JUCO Jaren English will be other key sophomores who are threats in the offense. Welch is a great shooter, making 40% of his threes (38 total made, just one fewer than Jamison). Hopefully we do a better job running him off the line, as we did a pretty poor job against Vermont. Welch is also an above average rebounder so we will need to make sure to box him out in addition to Osunniyi. English suffered a hand injury during the preseason which kept him out a few games, but his return has given Bonaventure another three point threat. He is shooting 44% from deep so far, and like Welch, he is a pretty good rebounder. Former JC recruit at Mount St. Mary's Bobby Planutis is likely to see some time off the bench for the Bonnies. He can put up some points if needed and provides more rebounding. Although he has the reputation of being a pretty good shooter, he has struggled to find his stroke in the early going for Bonaventure.

Apart from the 5 man sophomore class, expect the remainder of St. Bona's rotation to consist of senior Amadi Ikpeze and freshmen Alejandro Vasquez and Justin Winston. Ikpeze is Osunniyi's backup who can make shots near the hoop at a decent rate, although he is nowhere near the shot blocking presence that Osunniyi is. Vasquez and Winston average roughly 8 ppg, and are snipers from deep - with Vasquez shooting 44%, and Winston 38%. They don't do too much else at this stage in their careers so hopefully we just know what to do when they're in the game, which is mainly to make sure they don't have good looks at threes. 

JC's Siena squad got absolutely crushed against Bona last year. I'm sure he would have circled this game after the 82-40 drubbing his team suffered last year. Between that and the poor Vermont performance, I'd expect the team to come out somewhat hungry (or at least I hope so). Osunniyi is the player I'm not sure we have an answer for underneath though, and that will make this game a tough one to win.

Predicted Score: St. Bonaventure 66, GW 63. 36% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a slightly more optimistic 41.4% chance to begin conference season 1-0. At the very least, hoping for a decent performance against a solid team at home.
 

Great preview as always by DMVPiranha.  Mike Lonergan was once asked who the best coach in the A10 was and he answered Mark Schmidt without any hesitation.  This was likely before Bob McKillop and Davidson became A10 members but it was definitely while Mr. Martelli was at St. Joe's.

Considering the climate and location of this school, it is amazing that Schmidt can attract any talent yet consistently manages to do so.  If you're not convinced what Osunniyi is capable of, take a look again at that stat line he had against us last year.  Lofton replaced Jaylen Adams who ran with Matt Mobley and Courtney Stockard.  Haven't even gotten to Andrew Nicholson (who led the Bonnies to an A10 Championship), Marcus Posley, Chris Matthews or Marques Green.  

Will be interesting to see whether Ikpeze gets the chance to play with Osunniyi.  They usually don't play together but we would frankly have no answer for this if they did.  SBU is not an overly reliant team from 3 (only 4 conference teams have attempted fewer 3's)  but they are 7th in the conference in 3 point FG % so it will be imperative that GW holds Welch and company in check from 3.
 

GW has a new player! Hunter Dean a transfer from Southern Miss.

Tried to post a thread but couldn't.  For those who don't know to look in the transfer section (I often forget to look there on the new site)

Looks like Javy is out- has cast on right wrist/hand

Potter is dressed and warmed up

Battle struggling from 3 but solid 1st half esp Chase down low

Yes. Toro doesn't look good out there. Misses too many easy shots. 

Interior defence really sucks

Team playing better this year than last (low bar) but losing to the Bonnies at home- what is our winnable game in conference?

Tennessee Colonial wrote:

How's the hockey team doing? 

Clemson is still too chickenshit to schedule a football game against GW!
What percentage of games has GW outscored its opponent in the 2nd half? Really amazing how halftime leads disolve in to losses...