St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Date/Time: Sunday February 19th @ 2:00 PM ET at the Reilly Center in Olean, NY.
TV: USA
Preseason Ranks: 119th (KenPom), 184th (Bart Torvik), 149th (Sports Illustrated)
2021-22 Record: 23-10, 12-5 (4th in A10)
2022-23 Projected Record: 15-16, 9-9 (T-6th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 35-30, and the Bonnies have won the past 5 matchups. We did not face Bona during the 2021-22 season due to COVID so I unfortunately have to discuss the last matchup up in Olean during the 2020-21 season when we lost 88-41. I'm not sure the last time we've lost a game that badly if ever. If you've ever wondered what it's like for one team to play their best game and the other to play their worst it was that game. They had double our score at halftime 42-21 and somehow outscored us by even more in the second half (26). Now there is an asterisk next to that game as we were playing our third game in six days and the team's conditioning was so clearly not there by the third game. Looking back now I'm surprised we didn't just shut things down for the season after not playing for over a month but it was nice to see that team notch two wins at the end against URI and Fordham before the season was over.

Name any stat and it's likely Bona did it significantly better than us. Bona made 15 threes, and we made 15 FGs total. That's the game right there, but they also outrebounded us by 12 (when Tyler Brelsford leads you in rebounding with 4 it's probably not a good day), over tripled us up in assists (22-7), and doubled us in steals (10-5). The one stat we came ahead was in fouls/free throw attempts but the difference was not even close to making up the deficit.

Jamison was the only GW player to finish in double figures with 10 points. Of the players still on the roster, JB had 6 points, Ricky had 6, Noel had 4, and Hunter had 2.

While GW hasn't turned in some of their best performances the last few weeks, it's a guarantee that we won't lose by that much. Bona's team isn't as strong and GW's starters at least are better than they were then even if depth remains a concern.

Offensive Efficiency: 244th (KenPom), 235th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 112th (KenPom), 104th (Bart Torvik)
Pace: 273rd (KenPom), 274th (Bart Torvik)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 184th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 225th
Rim & 3 Rate: 73% (292nd)

Strengths (OOC Play):
Three Point Percentage Defense (18th)

Weaknesses (OOC Play):
Free Throw Percentage (T-252nd)
Fouls Per Game (T-254th)
Three Point Attempts Per Game (T-257th)
Field Goal Percentage (261st)
Effective Field Goal Percentage (272nd)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game (T-294th)
Assist Turnover Ratio (296th)
Scoring Offense (296th)
Assists Per Game (T-304th)
Bench Points Per Game (344th)

Key Returning Players:
Not a single player who saw any action at all last year. Really.

Key Losses:
Jalen Adaway (Exit Early Pro; Logansport, IN) 15.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1 apg, 1 spg; 47% FG, 38% 3-PT, 83% FT
Jaren Holmes (Transferred to Iowa State; Romulus, MI) 13.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.1 spg; 39% FG, 27% 3-PT, 76% FT
Kyle Lofton (Transferred to Florida; Hillside, NJ) 12.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 5.9 apg, 2 spg; 40% FG, 28% 3-PT, 82% FT
Dominick Welch (Transferred to Alabama; Buffalo, NY) 12.3 ppg, 6 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.3 spg; 41% FG, 37% 3-PT, 78% FT
Osun Osunniyi (Transferred to Iowa State; Pleasantville, NJ) 11.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, 2.9 bpg; 61% FG, 50% 3-PT, 64% FT

Comments:
The 2021-22 season marked Mark Schmidt's fourth 20+ win season at St. Bonaventure. You could make the argument that the Bonnies fell short of expectations last year (which led to their starting 5 deciding to move on for their final year of eligibility) but let's just focus on the fact that Schmidt has managed to win 20 or more games four separate times in Olean, NY (and it probably would have been a 5th had the 2020-21 season not been shortened due to COVID).

There's certainly a case to be made that Schmidt is Bona's greatest coach of all time, especially if he gets that 5th 20+ win season at some point in his tenure. He has made more NCAA tournaments than any other coach in program history and is tied with Edward Donovan for the most 20+ win seasons. Donovan, Larry Weise, and Edward Melvin had multiple teams ranked in the AP Poll but it's up for debate as to how useful the poll is today.

Prior to this season, Fordham and La Salle were always being discussed as the two teams in the league where it's next to impossible to win at but I'm always surprised St. Bonaventure isn't included in those conversations more. I think Schmidt again deserves a ton of credit for changing the discourse around the school - after a tough first year, he's only had 2 years where he's finished below .500 and in both those years he was only one game under. His predecessor, Anthony Solomon, won 24 games combined across four seasons. If you look at other sports outside of MBB, Bonaventure is usually towards the bottom if not last.

Seemingly every offseason Schmidt is mentioned as someone poised to take a bigger job but he never does which is a big credit to his loyalty. I never thought he was taking UMass but I was surprised he didn't get/take Boston College which is his alma mater. Earl Grant doesn't strike me as a guy who has a high ceiling and losses to Maine and New Hampshire this season definitely aren't great to see even during the rebuild.

The past couple of years have been relatively smooth sailing for Schmidt. The Bonnies were a known commodity and you knew what you were getting from them. They were going to roll with their starting 5 and get as much out of them as possible. The downside of course was that no depth was built during this time and it wasn't much of a surprise to see everyone depart after last year. As I've mentioned in a couple previews in the past, while returning production raises the floor once the ceiling is hit (which often times comes before the players are out of eligibility) experience doesn't mean much and teams almost never meet expectations.

That starting five was pretty darn good though.

Kyle Lofton was the main orchestrator of their attack the past few years. He played 4,422 minutes in his Bona career, nearly 400 more than the next player in the past 30 years. Lofton was 9th in assists per game nationally and 32nd in steals, making his presence felt on both sides of the ball.

Dominick Welch, Jaren Holmes, and Jalen Adaway had the ability to switch 2-4 making Bona fairly effective on defense.

Welch was just behind Lofton in career minutes, ranking 5th in minutes played in the past 30 years. He rebounded well for his height and most importantly brought three point shooting to the team where he ranked 65th nationally last year and 39th in makes.

Holmes was another guy who never left the floor, seeing the second most minutes on the team after Lofton. While he wasn't known as an offensive superstar, he played the glue guy role well - serving as a complementary playmaker on offense, strong on-ball defender, and willing rebounder on both sides of the ball.

Adaway was the best offensive weapon for the Bonnies after coming over from Miami (OH), leading the team in scoring while shooting a team best 83% from the line and 38% from deep. He also did his job on the glass and was a decent defender.

Lofton (3rd), Holmes (5th), Adaway (7th), and Welch (8th) all ranked in the top 10 nationally in minutes per game last year. It's incredible that the Bonnies not only had four players in the top 10, but that their bodies held up over multiple seasons to play those minutes.

Osun Osunniyi was lazy as he "only" played just over 30 minutes a game. He did the dirty work down low on both ends as he was eighth nationally in blocks per game and was 72nd in offensive rebounding. Lofton, Welch, Holmes, and Adaway were not short by any means but Osun's presence was the perfect fifth piece in making Bona a complete unit on both sides of the ball. He converted his shots near the rim at 59.5%, which was the best rate for a Bona player in the past three decades.

When you lose every player from that starting lineup it's understandable to think that Bonaventure was going to be in for a rough season this year but I think Mark Schmidt has proven that it's stupid to discount his ability to keep Bona competitive regardless of who is on the roster.

Schmidt started with basically a blank slate (minus Justin Ndjock-Tadjore I believe before he too transferred early in the season) but he got to work in the portal/HS ranks and landed a number of instant impact players:

Kyrell Luc was named the Patriot League rookie of the year at Holy Cross last season. Although he does not quite have the same height as Lofton at the PG position he is still quite the playmaker both offensively and defensively. Luc was 96th nationally in assists per game during OOC play and was 79th in steals per game. He shot 36% from 3 at Holy Cross last year but that number has dipped a bit to 31%. His height hampers his ability a bit to finish inside consistently but he still rebounds well for his height and does the other things well.

Hartford transfer Moses Flowers, St. Peter's transfer Daryl Banks III, and freshman Yann Farell have replaced the roles of Welch, Holmes, and Adaway.

Flowers, who made all-America East third team last year, is shooting nearly 40% from 3. His primary role is to score but his one weak spot is FT shooting as he's only 63% from the line.

Banks III, a native of Los Angeles, comes over from the St. Peter's Elite Eight squad. He leads the team in scoring at over 15 a game and is second on the squad in both steals and assists. Banks is a good three point shooter (95th nationally in percentage, 60th in makes) having made a team-high 65 on the year and is also 84% from the line - he is the one guy who shouldn't be shooting FTs especially late. It's worth noting he's not the most efficient inside the arc so we should take a similar approach to how we guarded Cooper from GMU on Wednesday. Banks played the most minutes nationally during OOC play.

Farell hails from Gabon and was a well-regarded prospect out of HS. He leads the team in rebounding and shoots a team-best 41% from 3 with 52 made. Like Flowers, the hole in his offensive game is at the FT line where he's just 66% for the year. Ricky will hopefully guard him well without fouling out.

Chad Venning comes over from Morgan State to replace the Osunniyi role on the team. He is a good interior scorer and rebounder while providing a bit of rim protection on defense. Venning is only 62% from the line, but that doesn't feel like something we'll be able to capitalize on with limited depth. He is no stranger to foul trouble himself as he's picked up at least 3 fouls in Bonaventure's last 11 games, fouling out in four of them (and 8/27 overall this year). It's hard to expect on Hunter and Noel to be overly aggressive, but taking Venning out of the game would be huge and allow JB/BA to potentially have an easier time near the hoop.

Coming off the bench are forwards Barry Evans, Anouar Mellouk, Anquan Hill, and guard Brett Rumpel. Given Bonaventure still ranked 344th in bench points per game during OOC play (Schmidt didn't learn his lesson!) these four don't expect to see much time (you can throw Pittsburgh transfer Max Amadasun in there as well but he hasn't played in over three weeks).

Evans, a native of Baltimore, has seen the most minutes of the four and is a slashing wing who is a good rebounder and defender. Mellouk also prefers to score closer to the hoop. Evans and Mellouk have gone a combined 14/35 from the FT line on the year. Hill, who won NEC rookie of the year playing with Fairleigh Dickinson last year, is a decent interior scorer and rebounder but hasn't shot the ball too well in limited time. Finally, Rumpel, a former GW target, has great potential down the road as a shooter but likely only plays a few minutes per game this year.

The spread probably has us around a two possession underdog or so going into tomorrow's contest but GW has struggled to keep most games even within single digits of late. This is a young SBU team, but GW doesn't usually fare too well in Olean and I just hope we keep it within 10. Hopefully BA is able to have a good bounce back game - this one may mean a bit more to him since his brother played there. Hopefully the ball moves around more on offense. If we finish with less than 12 assists (and especially under 10) we aren't winning this game.

Projected Score: St. Bonaventure 75, GW 68. 26% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 22.8% chance to move to 7-7 in conference.
 

Solid first half.  Really good defense and great job on the defensive glass. Turnovers held us back, but can’t complain with an 11 point halftime lead in Olean.

Don't know the deal on the refs and the guy we tied up for what seemed like an eternity, followed by
someone leading with a stiff arm.

I’ve seen this show before. Why is it so difficult to inbound the ball?

Wow that shot

Bishop bear hugged. No foul.

Playing one man ball.

refs change a call to help them win. 

Good FT shooters missing at key times really costing us.

Really a perfect storm to lose this.  Poor play, bad luck, just everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong.

Edit: still alive after the Adams 3, the Bonnies missed FT, and this out of bounds play.  9 seconds left down 1

Last edited by Free Quebec (2/19/2023 4:20 pm)

The Dude wrote:

The most 1 sided officiated game I've witnessed

 

The refs were reading the board and finally gave us a call thanks to your comment.  Lol. 

Weak call, but not worse than the one at end of regulation they gave to Bona when Lindo pulled his arm back and Banks jumped into him.

Last edited by Free Quebec (2/19/2023 4:20 pm)

Win or lose the same ref made two game changing calls that turned into 4 points for them and two lost possessions for us a critical moments. With about 2 minutes left, he called an out of bounds off of Lindo on a ball that I don't think he even touched. Then the foul in OT on Adams.