Free Quebec wrote:

VCU gets the shaft. St Mary’s the worst team they could have drawn.

Rigged as always, stick VCU with the smallest $ best school with a top 11 KenPom and NET instead of them playing some big $ overranked Power 5, 5 seed.   

Rutgers, 35 KenPom left out,  Pitt KenPom 77 is IN.    Look at the Pitt resume, that's the worst resume ever chosen.
Lost to VCU and Michigan and Vanderbilt but also lost to Notre Dame in Quad 3  and at home in Quad 4.

Two most dangerous 8/9s are also paired together to knock one of them out too.  Memphis and Florida Atlantic, every year they pair the  most dangerous Non Power 5s. 

Not to mention the North Texas type schools obviously being left out without any consideration, just came down to which Power 5s would get the last bubble spots.  Pittsburgh, Miss St.   The whole system is rigged.



 

Congrats to VCU. Agree that they are the best team to represent the conference this year and are entering the NCAA tournament with some momentum.

The times I've watched Dayton this year they've looked offensively inept. I'm honestly surprised they're ranked 94th on that end per KenPom which is eight spots higher than GW. I would take GW's offense any day over theirs. The floor spacing with two bigs is awkward.

Some NCAA tournament thoughts:

- Maryland-West Virginia is an interesting border state matchup. I like MD's guard play more but the Terrapins are awful away from home. Not sure it really matters who wins because the winner is playing Alabama in Birmingham in the Round of 32. Brutal for either team.

- Charleston will be a popular upset pick against San Diego State. I can't help but feel CoC's hype has gone too far. SDSU actually has some offense this year to make things interesting in March. I know the MWC has done terribly recently in the tournament (and the teams that made it are probably still a bit overrated) but that has to change at some point. I could see a Sweet 16 path for them this year.

- I'm probably just a UVA hater because I feel like I'd probably give whoever they draw a chance against them. Furman certainly has the offense to pull the upset and will be picked by some to do so. Their defense though can be pretty rough at times. It allowed Mercer, Western Carolina, and Chattanooga to erase deficits during the SoCon tournament.

- Missouri/Utah State will be a fun offensive showcase. Glad USU made it - they've been fun to watch all year under Odom and "looked" like a NCAA tourney team, at least to me. Dennis Gates has done an incredible job in year 1 for Mizzou.

The Dude wrote:

Two most dangerous 8/9s are also paired together to knock one of them out too. Memphis and Florida Atlantic, every year they pair the most dangerous Non Power 5s.

Agreed, I would take both teams over a lot of the other 8/9's playing. FAU is a very well coached and balanced team and Penny seems to have figured things out at Memphis.

- I can't believe I'm saying this, but I was surprised Duke was only seeded 5 based on their recent run. Goes to show how weak the ACC is nowadays. Was very much prepared to pick Oral Bob in the first round, but can't bring myself to do so against Duke. An awful matchup. The Blue Devils have a nice path to the Sweet 16 which feels planned.

- Louisiana has some P6 size in the post and decent guard play which could make things interesting against Tennessee. The Vols are missing their starting PG Zeigler and Barnes seems to not have the best success in the tournament. Definitely a matchup to watch.

- Bryce Hopkins faces his former team Kentucky in a 6/11 matchup. Wonder what happens to Cal if the Wildcats lose in the first round yet again.

- Iowa is an 8 seed? Feels a bit generous. I can't bring myself to care about Iowa/Auburn or Arkansas/Illinois as 8/9 matchups. I didn't think Arkansas was that good even with Nick Smith Jr. healthy (8 seed??), and same goes for Auburn. Both teams beat up on the bottom half of the SEC that was meh. Throw in Iowa State vs. winner of Mississippi State/Pittsburgh as well. I don't care.

- Miami/Drake might be my favorite first round matchup in the bracket (Mizzou/Utah State is second). I like both those teams. Omier's health may play a big role in the result. Drake has a ton of experience on their team.

- In the right matchup I certainly would have picked Kent State. I'm just not sure Indiana is that matchup. Former Duquesne Duke Sincere Carry will make things interesting regardless though for the Golden Flashes.

- Texas A&M/Penn State feels like a lazy matchup between teams that both lost in their conference tournament championships. Penn State is probably seeded about right but that's pretty low for A&M. You won't hear me complain about a P6 team being seeded too low often, but it feels Buzz's squad was docked too much for their early season performance.

- Toothpaste U is a 15 seed? The Patriot League is terrible this year (most of their coaches are probably getting fired) but Colgate deserves more respect.

Free Quebec wrote:

VCU gets the shaft. St Mary’s the worst team they could have drawn.

I don't know about that. I think of the 5 seeds VCU could have faced they probably got the best draw. I think St. Mary's is a better matchup than San Diego State and definitely better than Duke or Miami. VCU probably deserved 1 or 2 seed lines higher though and I would have loved to pick them even more. Also they are playing SMC in Albany which will be a cross-country trip for them and VCU should have the larger crowd. 

- UConn vs Pitino/Iona is an interesting pairing - probably a preview for future Big East matchups when Rick goes to St. John's.

- Arizona State is a fraud team. They have been lucky in a number of games this year. Give me Rutgers over them. It definitely feels like the committee put them and Nevada in for the storyline. ASU has multiple players who transferred from Nevada, including Desmond Cambridge whose half-court winner against Arizona is the only reason ASU is in the field. As a fan of a mid-major, I guess I should be happy Nevada made it but they've honestly not played well down the stretch and probably shouldn't have made it.

- Northwestern also feels a bit low as a 7 seed. Don't know that I love Boise as much as some of the other MWC teams that made it. Their offense can be ugly at times, but I guess the same is true for Northwestern. Should be a rock fight.

- I don't think I'll pick UNC Asheville right now, but UCLA almost fell to Akron in the first round last year and UNCA does have some talent on their team with guys like Tajion Jones and Drew Pember. I think that might quietly be the best 2/15 matchup of the 4.

The Dude wrote:

Not to mention the North Texas type schools obviously being left out without any consideration, just came down to which Power 5s would get the last bubble spots.  Pittsburgh, Miss St.   The whole system is rigged.

Most years I would agree that mid-majors are robbed of more bids but this year I just think fewer were worthy of at-large and I say that as someone who obviously would have loved a North Texas or UAB to get in. Lack of opportunities is always a factor but not many mid-major teams really took advantage during OOC. UNT beat nobody and lost by 30 to St. Mary's (granted without their best player, but still). They may have still got a look despite that had they not lost by 12 at home to a bad Rice team.

I think the committee was generous to the Pac-12/Mountain West as has been the case in recent seasons. Especially when it comes to the Mountain West, the A10 needs to take notes as to how to maximize more bids. Unless you're the Big Ten, it's clear that having more teams in the conference isn't beneficial because there are more potential landmines. Obviously the goal is to get every team to be around top 150, but that's harder with more teams. The MW has 11 teams, the Big 12 has 10, WCC has 10, Big East has 11. The ACC is starting to see the effects of having 15 teams with some real bottom-dwellers.
 

Zero NIT bids.

Sounds like Duquesne will play in the CBI.

Also don’t think Dayton declined the NIT. I saw their statement and it sounded more like declining the CBI.

A lot of disrespect for A10 in favor of a lot of .500 teams. Maybe Dayton should say their arena is unavailable for the NCAA or NIT because of a marble tournament. 

dmvpiranha wrote:

Congrats to VCU. Agree that they are the best team to represent the conference this year and are entering the NCAA tournament with some momentum.

The times I've watched Dayton this year they've looked offensively inept. I'm honestly surprised they're ranked 94th on that end per KenPom which is eight spots higher than GW. I would take GW's offense any day over theirs. The floor spacing with two bigs is awkward.

Some NCAA tournament thoughts:

- Maryland-West Virginia is an interesting border state matchup. I like MD's guard play more but the Terrapins are awful away from home. Not sure it really matters who wins because the winner is playing Alabama in Birmingham in the Round of 32. Brutal for either team.

- Charleston will be a popular upset pick against San Diego State. I can't help but feel CoC's hype has gone too far. SDSU actually has some offense this year to make things interesting in March. I know the MWC has done terribly recently in the tournament (and the teams that made it are probably still a bit overrated) but that has to change at some point. I could see a Sweet 16 path for them this year.

- I'm probably just a UVA hater because I feel like I'd probably give whoever they draw a chance against them. Furman certainly has the offense to pull the upset and will be picked by some to do so. Their defense though can be pretty rough at times. It allowed Mercer, Western Carolina, and Chattanooga to erase deficits during the SoCon tournament.

- Missouri/Utah State will be a fun offensive showcase. Glad USU made it - they've been fun to watch all year under Odom and "looked" like a NCAA tourney team, at least to me. Dennis Gates has done an incredible job in year 1 for Mizzou.

The Dude wrote:

Two most dangerous 8/9s are also paired together to knock one of them out too. Memphis and Florida Atlantic, every year they pair the most dangerous Non Power 5s.

Agreed, I would take both teams over a lot of the other 8/9's playing. FAU is a very well coached and balanced team and Penny seems to have figured things out at Memphis.

- I can't believe I'm saying this, but I was surprised Duke was only seeded 5 based on their recent run. Goes to show how weak the ACC is nowadays. Was very much prepared to pick Oral Bob in the first round, but can't bring myself to do so against Duke. An awful matchup. The Blue Devils have a nice path to the Sweet 16 which feels planned.

- Louisiana has some P6 size in the post and decent guard play which could make things interesting against Tennessee. The Vols are missing their starting PG Zeigler and Barnes seems to not have the best success in the tournament. Definitely a matchup to watch.

- Bryce Hopkins faces his former team Kentucky in a 6/11 matchup. Wonder what happens to Cal if the Wildcats lose in the first round yet again.

- Iowa is an 8 seed? Feels a bit generous. I can't bring myself to care about Iowa/Auburn or Arkansas/Illinois as 8/9 matchups. I didn't think Arkansas was that good even with Nick Smith Jr. healthy (8 seed??), and same goes for Auburn. Both teams beat up on the bottom half of the SEC that was meh. Throw in Iowa State vs. winner of Mississippi State/Pittsburgh as well. I don't care.

- Miami/Drake might be my favorite first round matchup in the bracket (Mizzou/Utah State is second). I like both those teams. Omier's health may play a big role in the result. Drake has a ton of experience on their team.

- In the right matchup I certainly would have picked Kent State. I'm just not sure Indiana is that matchup. Former Duquesne Duke Sincere Carry will make things interesting regardless though for the Golden Flashes.

- Texas A&M/Penn State feels like a lazy matchup between teams that both lost in their conference tournament championships. Penn State is probably seeded about right but that's pretty low for A&M. You won't hear me complain about a P6 team being seeded too low often, but it feels Buzz's squad was docked too much for their early season performance.

- Toothpaste U is a 15 seed? The Patriot League is terrible this year (most of their coaches are probably getting fired) but Colgate deserves more respect.

Free Quebec wrote:

VCU gets the shaft. St Mary’s the worst team they could have drawn.

I don't know about that. I think of the 5 seeds VCU could have faced they probably got the best draw. I think St. Mary's is a better matchup than San Diego State and definitely better than Duke or Miami. VCU probably deserved 1 or 2 seed lines higher though and I would have loved to pick them even more. Also they are playing SMC in Albany which will be a cross-country trip for them and VCU should have the larger crowd. 

- UConn vs Pitino/Iona is an interesting pairing - probably a preview for future Big East matchups when Rick goes to St. John's.

- Arizona State is a fraud team. They have been lucky in a number of games this year. Give me Rutgers over them. It definitely feels like the committee put them and Nevada in for the storyline. ASU has multiple players who transferred from Nevada, including Desmond Cambridge whose half-court winner against Arizona is the only reason ASU is in the field. As a fan of a mid-major, I guess I should be happy Nevada made it but they've honestly not played well down the stretch and probably shouldn't have made it.

- Northwestern also feels a bit low as a 7 seed. Don't know that I love Boise as much as some of the other MWC teams that made it. Their offense can be ugly at times, but I guess the same is true for Northwestern. Should be a rock fight.

- I don't think I'll pick UNC Asheville right now, but UCLA almost fell to Akron in the first round last year and UNCA does have some talent on their team with guys like Tajion Jones and Drew Pember. I think that might quietly be the best 2/15 matchup of the 4.

The Dude wrote:

Not to mention the North Texas type schools obviously being left out without any consideration, just came down to which Power 5s would get the last bubble spots.  Pittsburgh, Miss St.   The whole system is rigged.

Most years I would agree that mid-majors are robbed of more bids but this year I just think fewer were worthy of at-large and I say that as someone who obviously would have loved a North Texas or UAB to get in. Lack of opportunities is always a factor but not many mid-major teams really took advantage during OOC. UNT beat nobody and lost by 30 to St. Mary's (granted without their best player, but still). They may have still got a look despite that had they not lost by 12 at home to a bad Rice team.

I think the committee was generous to the Pac-12/Mountain West as has been the case in recent seasons. Especially when it comes to the Mountain West, the A10 needs to take notes as to how to maximize more bids. Unless you're the Big Ten, it's clear that having more teams in the conference isn't beneficial because there are more potential landmines. Obviously the goal is to get every team to be around top 150, but that's harder with more teams. The MW has 11 teams, the Big 12 has 10, WCC has 10, Big East has 11. The ACC is starting to see the effects of having 15 teams with some real bottom-dwellers.
 

Largely agree. Dayton on offense, 100%.   Seems like no A10 team did less with more this year, big dissapointment.  

WHY don't they create some interesting Power 5 vs Non Power matchups instead of engineering the exits of the most dangerous teams, its so transparent.  Instead we get, like you said 8 vs 9s no one cares about and the non Power 5s playing each other,

Whereas, you're right, Duke was, as always, handed two teams they match up well with.  Three actually since they're paired with the 4 seed that's falling apart without their hurt star PG. Who could have guessed Duke gets crumbling Tennessee!?  (instead of say top 10 KEN and KenPom 4 seed UConn)

Regarding the non Power 5 Bids... yes this year not great but that's if we all accept the premise that the only way into the tourney is "Lots of Quad 1 wins and few bad losses" because if that's the case we're never getting bids anymore.

Lastly, UVA is KenPom 34 and a 4 seed, Rutgers is KenPom 35 and OUT.  There's something wrong with criteria that leads to those decisions.  The computers do much better jobs than dividing games into 4 bizarre  Quads and then letting a committee behind closed doors pull things out of a hat based on some unclear analysis of that. That's better than an all inclusive computer model?

NC State with 1 Quad win and 55 KenPom is a 10 seed?  Seems like not only is it a rigged system but its an arbitrarily chosen one






 

Last edited by The Dude (3/13/2023 1:43 am)

1.  I was clinging to the idea that Dayton would be the 8th different A10 champion in the past 8 A10 tournaments.  Covid wrecked the Obi Toppin led team's chances but this was to make up for that.  VCU had other plans.

2.  VCU proved they are versatile enough to win multiple ways.  Yesterday was not at all about Havoc as Dayton turned the ball over just 5 times.  VCU knew better than to press and trap throughout much of the game.  Instead, VCU won largely because they shot 8-17 from 3.  Ironically, Dayton's defense was one of the country's best at defending three point shots.

3. VCU did the committee an enormous favor by winning, IMO.  With a loss, VCU would have finished 26-8, with two of those losses coming without the conference player of the year.  They had one very bad loss against Jacksonville and we can debate whether a road loss at Duquesne or even a home loss to St. Bonaventure were truly terrible.  VCU was close enough to the cut line that it was convenient for the committee to cut them had they lost to Dayton.  It would be ideal to think that the committee puts together contingency brackets late Saturday which factors the Sunday results but they don't.  People will scream bloody murder if a high major is unjustifiably cut from the field.  No such outrage for a VCU.

4. The system is not so much rigged as it is flawed.  The biggest flaw in my mind is that while every result is supposed to carry the same meaning, no more emphasis on last 10 or 12 games, the A10 member schools largely know their fate by the end of December.  If not their fate, then at least an idea of how easy or difficult it will be on those teams.  In 2014-15, the conference piled up a high number of quality OOC upsets.  It was widely assumed that throughout January and February that the conference would be sending somewhere between 4-7 schools pending the conference results.  By contrast, the conference grossly underperformed in the OOC this season.  Therefore, it was already known that the conference would be a one bid league, perhaps two at the most.  Once everyone begins conference play with mediocre advanced metrics, there is simply no conceivable way to rise high enough to garner the committee's attention.

5.  This flaw is compounded by all of the recent factors that are working against the A10 conference.  Major conference expansion has led to broadened conference schedules.  Holiday events take up 3 more games.  Conference challenges add another game.  This all means fewer and fewer opportunities for A10 schools to differentiate themselves against the majors.  We've literally gone from "we can't get a home game against these guys" to "we can't get them to play us at all."  Nobody is suggesting that the majors need to enter into a 50/50 partnership with midmajors.  GW a while back entered into a 2 for 1 deal with Kansas State; two games at KSU and 1 at the Smith Center.  It's not entirely fair but it's the best we (the A10) should be expected to be able to accomplish.  Today, even this is widely out of consideration.  As long as a midmajor can prove that they attempted to schedule enough high quality opponents and were largely turned down, then the fact that #53 NET ranked VCU went 0-1 in Quad 1 games this season  must not be held against them (in the future).

6.  I'll write more about the tournament another time but I'll just add that VCU's draw of St. Mary's is not only NOT the most difficult #5 seed but could actually be the easiest.  Duke is 17-1 when completely healthy which they are now.  Miami has the speed and firepower to make VCU look bad (plus a head coach who had to face this defense for years).  San Diego State has found an offense to go along with it's stellar defense.  St. Mary's is a great defensive team but they, moreso than any of these other #5 seeds, will be challenged to score against VCU.  

7. Last point for now.  Sometimes, things work out for the best.  Sometimes, a coach might be a bad fit for a program but this doesn't mean that he suddenly forgot how to coach.  Sometimes, coaches shouldn't just stay where they are and be happy if they have belief in their own abilities.  And with that, let's congratulate Shaka Smart and Marquette who convincingly won the Big East tournament and then followed that up by upending St. John's, UCONN and Xavier to take home the Big East Tournament Championship as well, Texas who rallied around interim head coach Rodney Terry after Shaka's replacement Chris Beard was fired for being arrested due to an altercation he had with his fiancee, and VCU who under Mike Rhoades has clearly righted its ship and also took home the A10 regular season and conference championships.  Nice to see everything has worked out fine for the most part (even eventually for Chris Beard whose domestic violence charge has been dropped and who was just hired by Ole Miss as its new head coach). 

The Belk Report, a Davidson fan Twitter account, had some pretty good tweets last night comparing the A10 and the MWC.  Not getting enough Q1 opportunities, while true, does not mean that the A10 can never be a 3+ bid league again; or at the very least a multiple NIT bid league again.  The conference as a whole needs to find opportunities to schedule good Q2 and Q3 games in the OOC and win.  That way, the conference portion of the season will mostly be comprised of Q2 and Q3 games. I've copied the thread below:

The first thing that stands out is that scheduling harder is definitively OUT. The 5 MW teams in the NCAAT convo this season combined for 2 Q1 wins in the non-con. They didn't even schedule that many! Utah State, Boise, and Nevada combined had 3 Q1 opps in the non-con.

BUT, scheduling cupcakes is not getting you in either. San Diego State had just 1 Q4 game in the non-con, Nevada had 3, Utah State had 2, and Boise had 4.

What it appears the trick is, is to load up on Q2 and Q3 opportunities. Keep Q1 and Q4 games to a minimum and hammer those Q2/Q3 games. You also have to beat up on those Q2/Q3 teams to raise your efficiency numbers like Utah State did.

A good east coast A10 schedule would be:
Charleston/Hostra (Away)
UVM (home)
Iona (home)
Colgate (home)
P6 game (Neutral/Away)
Good Ivy Team (Home)
MTE (3 games)
Good Big South Team (Home)
Good Sun Belt Team (Home)
Good SoCon Team (Home)
Good Horizon League Team (Home)

GW0509 wrote:

The Belk Report, a Davidson fan Twitter account, had some pretty good tweets last night comparing the A10 and the MWC.  Not getting enough Q1 opportunities, while true, does not mean that the A10 can never be a 3+ bid league again; or at the very least a multiple NIT bid league again.  The conference as a whole needs to find opportunities to schedule good Q2 and Q3 games in the OOC and win.  That way, the conference portion of the season will mostly be comprised of Q2 and Q3 games. I've copied the thread below:

The first thing that stands out is that scheduling harder is definitively OUT. The 5 MW teams in the NCAAT convo this season combined for 2 Q1 wins in the non-con. They didn't even schedule that many! Utah State, Boise, and Nevada combined had 3 Q1 opps in the non-con.

BUT, scheduling cupcakes is not getting you in either. San Diego State had just 1 Q4 game in the non-con, Nevada had 3, Utah State had 2, and Boise had 4.

What it appears the trick is, is to load up on Q2 and Q3 opportunities. Keep Q1 and Q4 games to a minimum and hammer those Q2/Q3 games. You also have to beat up on those Q2/Q3 teams to raise your efficiency numbers like Utah State did.

A good east coast A10 schedule would be:
Charleston/Hostra (Away)
UVM (home)
Iona (home)
Colgate (home)
P6 game (Neutral/Away)
Good Ivy Team (Home)
MTE (3 games)
Good Big South Team (Home)
Good Sun Belt Team (Home)
Good SoCon Team (Home)
Good Horizon League Team (Home)

I'd love a good simulator that would give you the chance to model what NET rankings WOULD have looked like if you traded certain games on schedules. Like, if GW had played (not even necessarily beaten, but played) UCLA instead of UCSD, what would that have meant for GW's NET ranking, and therefore the conference's NET rankings?

If the A-10/Mountain West challenge had actually happened this year (rescheduled from the two years it was supposed to happen), would the MWC still be a 4-bid league? Would the A10 have boosted its own rankings? 

Seems to me that some combination of the A10/Mountain West/WCC/CUSA/American would do well to create its own Non-Con scheduling pact to boost the Q2/Q3 rankings of its elite members. Let the projected top 4 of each conference work out games among themselves for the sake of the conference and its members. The rest have to win the conference tournament. 

Lot of things to say about the NCAAs, which excellent analytical minds here have noted. But to a more casual observer, it basically ends up with us and the A-10 in general being screwed in the eye test, whichever half-baked (to put it politely) metrics the committee wants to cite. They did actually leave out some P5 teams this year. And 19-14 West VA with a bad away record, doesn't seem to generate any controversy and was expected, so perhaps it's fine. But that's hardly an impressive record for an at-large bid.
    For us, however, Fordham at 25-8, 12-6 in the conference, not getting an NIT bid is really bad news. Not just for poor Fordham, which has come a great way, but of course, the A-10.
We have to get out this Rodney Dangerfield mode.
 

GWRising wrote:

I don't know why anyone is shocked by any of this. This has long been predicted to be the natural consequence of the consolidation of P5 conferences and NIL. Sure the A-10 might get 2 maybe even 3 bids in a year but not every year. The days of 4,5, or 6 are long gone. This (one bid) is more likely going to be the norm. In time, this will force GW and other like schools to make a choice. Invest in athletics to a relatively crazy degree for them or move down. I fear the answer at GW to that choice. The split between the P5 and everyone else is coming. I've said it here for years. It's a question of when not if.

I'm not so much shocked as much as I think that conference commissioners need to start being a little less even-handed with their members and do what's right for the conference (and its members' bottom lines). The A10 was very thoughtful/ruthless about who would and wouldn't get games rescheduled in 2020-21 (I'm kind of amazed they let GW make up any games and give teams Q4 blotches on their schedules), and that's the sort of mentality I think needs to be applied to those outside the P6. It might hurt your feelings, to be La Salle and get left out of high-quality games or home-and-homes against VCU or Dayton, but it'll feel better when your piece of the Tournament shares check arrives...