George Mason Patriots

Date/Time: Wednesday January 15th @ 7:00 PM at The Charles E. Smith Center in Washington DC.
Record Last Year: 18-15, 11-7 (5th in Atlantic 10)
Preseason Ranks: 155th (KenPom), 147th (Bart Torvik), 151st (Sports Illustrated), 123rd (CBS)
Projected Record: 18-13, 7-11 (T-9th in Atlantic 10)
Postseason Last Year: None.

Coaching Record: Dave Paulsen, 65-67 in 4 seasons at George Mason, with a single CBI appearance. Previously went 134-94 in 7 seasons at Bucknell with a couple NCAA appearances and a couple NIT appearances.

All Time Record: 18-6, although GMU is on a current four game win streak. We had won the previous nine A10 contests against them before that. Before February 2018, Mason had not won a single A10 game against us. Let's get back to those winning ways! In last year's matchup in Foggy Bottom, we fell 81-65. Juice led the way with 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 steals off the bench, the start of his strong finish at the end of last season. Does anyone know his status injury-wise? Armel (14 points, 4 rebounds) and Maceo (13 points, 2 assists) also finished in double figures, although Jack went 0-7 from deep. Going back to being to Maceo being productive, this is proof that he can still put up points even when not on from three. We'll need both guys to play well to win this game.

Offensive Efficiency: 177th (KenPom), 179th (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 130th (KenPom), 142nd (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 274th (KenPom), 275th (Bart Torvik). Almost the exact same pace as us.

Key Returning Players:
Justin Kier (SR; Spotswood, VA) 14.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.6 spg; 47% FG, 37% 3-pt, 77% FT
      Last year @ GW: 13 points, 5 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals; 4-12 FG, 1-2 3-pt, 4-4 FT in 38 minutes.

Jordan Miller (SO; Purcellville, VA) 10.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg; 61% FG, 33% 3-pt, 62% FT
      Last year @ GW: 17 points, 9 rebounds; 6-6 FG, 1-1 3-pt, 4-4 FT in 34 minutes.

Javon Greene (JR; McDonough, GA) 9.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg; 45% FG, 31% 3-pt, 91% FT
      Last year @ GW: 13 points, 2 rebounds, 6 assists; 5-7 FG, 3-5 3-pt in 36 minutes.

Key Losses:
Otis Livingston II (Graduated; Linden, NJ) 12.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 4 apg; 39% FG, 32% 3-pt, 87% FT
Jaire Grayer (Transferred to TCU; Flint, MI) 8.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg; 41% FG, 41% 3-pt, 65% FT
Jarred Reuter (Left Early for Pro Career; Marion, MA) 7.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.5 apg; 47% FG, 67% FT

Comments:
George Mason entered the beginning of last year with high expectations. There were even outlets that pegged them to finish at the very top of the conference. Unfortunately, things got off to a disastrous start, with the Patriots starting 0-3 with losses to Penn, American (thankfully we're not alone!), and Georgia Southern, and they barely squeaked by Southern to notch their first win of the season. They eventually settled in during conference season, beginning 7-1, but ultimately just didn't have enough to advance to the postseason.

Fast forward to this year - their steady PG Livingston graduated finally after a nice career in Fairfax, but most of their key guys have returned. Maybe it's the lower expectations, but overall the Patriots have performed better this season than last (although KenPom considers them to be the luckiest team in the country). Livingston was always somewhat of a volume rather than efficient shooter, and Reuter was one of the least athletic bigs I've seen in some time so maybe those things played a part in their improvement.

Things haven't been easy for GMU though. At the start of the year, the Patriots learned that they were going to be down two guys early on with senior Ian Boyd missing the entire year with a wrist injury (a loss for them, given his clutch shot making from sophomore year) and their new leader Justin Kier expected to miss a handful of games due to a stress fracture. Fortunately for them, they were able to survive without Kier's services. With Kier and the rest of the J-Crew healthy (junior Javon Greene, and sophomores Jordan Miller and Jamal Hartwell II) the Patriots have a nice four-headed monster in the backcourt that will make it tough to key in on any one guy. Kier hasn't put up quite the same numbers as last year, but remains very efficient shooting the ball - 46% from deep, and 85% from the line. Greene hasn't been very efficient shooting the ball so far this year (although he leads the team in made threes with 33), but impacts the game in other ways - he is second on the team in rebounding (6.1 rpg) which is impressive for a 6'2" guy, and also paces the team in assists per game (2.8), many times responsible for setting up the offense. Miller, who was expected to originally redshirt last year, was a revelation for GMU, and played a big part in Mason's turnaround during conference play last year. He currently leads the team in scoring (13.1 ppg) and is also a decent rebounder (4.4 rpg). Although he is not shooting the ridiculous 61% from the field as last year, he's still great at 50%, and has knocked down 47% of his shots from deep. Hartwell, who went from Fairfax HS in Los Angeles to Fairfax, VA, is more of a volume shooter (just 29% from the land of plenty), but is second on the team in made threes with 27. He also provides value as a lead or secondary facilitator on the floor depending on who is on the floor for Mason. All these guys are solid free throw shooters. If we can limit these guys, especially from deep, we will have a good chance at notching our first win in conference season. Freshman Xavier Johnson should not be forgotten though. Johnson has averaged nice numbers in his first year - 6.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, and 2.3 apg (second on team), shooting 44% from the floor and 80% from the line. He hasn't quite developed from deep yet, but Johnson will see quite a bit of floor time in the contest (he's averaged roughly 25 minutes a game this year) as a secondary playmaker.

That's not to say that GMU doesn't have a presence down low - that's pretty much a must in the A10. Anthony 'A.J.' Wilson Jr. has finally found a way to get on the floor, after a couple years with no impact. Wilson always had the tools to be a good A10 player in the post, but that potential was finally realized in his junior year. Wilson averages 10.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg (leads team), and a great 3.6 blocks per game so things may still be tough at the rim yet again Wednesday night. Although I don't know if he's still on the same tier as Osunniyi, French, or Hughes, Wilson is probably a bit more explosive than all of them. He is just a 58% free throw shooter, so if we can't successfully double him, maybe we should consider hacking him. His backup will be freshman and local Fairfax/Paul VI product Josh Oduro. Oduro won't see more than 15 minutes, but can chip in with some situational points and rebounding. Minnesotan Goanar Mar (he went to Jamison's HS DeLaSalle) is back this season after missing half of last year with a foot fracture. It is apparent Mar is still somewhat working his way back as he hasn't been very efficient from the floor on the year. Should the Patriots frontcourt get in any foul trouble, we may also see junior Greg Calixte as well for a few minutes here and there. Calixte is pretty good near the hoop and can pull down some boards, but he operates exclusively in the paint.

This is definitely a winnable game, but the key will be going back to running guys off the three point line. If Wilson hurts us repeatedly inside, maybe we look to return to double teaming in the post, but I don't want Mason to get the kinds of open looks Duquesne's guards had last Saturday. Mason is decent defensively, but not on the same level as St. Louis or Duquesne, so we shouldn't have difficulty putting up 65+ points, absent a really bad shooting night (and if that's happening from deep, I hope we change things up).

Predicted Score: Mason 66, Washington 64. 43% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 43.5% chance to win. Game could definitely go either way.
 

Despite the 0-3 start in conference play, I've been encouraged by GW's effort against 3 upper-tier(for the moment, I still have some doubts about St.Louis, and Duquesne to a lesser extent) conference teams that create glaring frontcourt matchup problems for GW. GW now hits a stretch of "winnable" games starting with George Mason tomorrow, followed by: @UMass, @Fordham and vs St.Joe's. George Mason is better than UMass, Fordham and St.Joe's, but I don't believe they present the matchup problems or have the talent level of the upper-tier A10 teams. AJ Wilson is very athletic and is an elite shot blocker as DMVPiranha pointed out, but he's not physically imposing like Osun, Hughes and French!! Whenever those 3 guys got the ball in the paint against GW, it felt as if GW had no chance of stopping them at any point. 

I think they get it done today.  This team knows how close it's been and even though the schedule loosens up a bit, the next two are on the road where we are guaranteed to beat nobody.  Mason has a gaudy overall record but I see them as at least a clear notch below each of our first three conference opponents.

FQ, some advice I was once given...pay attention to what the wise guys are doing during any NFL game, an NCAA tournament game, or any professional playoff game.  Otherwise, there will never be enough money wagered on a regular season George Washington-George Mason basketball game to make any bit of difference.

I have a strange feeling we may be successful tonight. We have to eventually win an A-10 game so why not start tonight.
I found the recent "The Truth" thread humorous. Let a dead horse be dead! I find solace in something I read recently about Nero - 2 years after leaving GW in the middle of a school year to "pursue other opportunities", he's sleeping in a spare bedroom at his sister's house in Northern California. Meanwhile ML is visiting either at his beach house or attending one of his "8" kids sporting events.
JC had nothing to do with this - all the fault of our inept administration, starting with Knapp.
Lets hope we can get a good student turn-out for tonight's game against rival GMU.

I'm excited about this game. I like the marketing with the hats. It's clear to me that we are going to give at least one or two A10 teams a "bad" loss this season. Might as well make Mason the first.  #RaiseHigh

We begin with STUPID guard play. Throwing the ball to nobody. 4 times getting into the paint and having the ball stripped. WTF! 

I counted at least 7 dribble drives resulting is crazy  no-chance shots or turnovers by Armel and JNJ. I appreciate the effort to penetrate and make something happen, but also need to protect the ball.

That being said, effort is really strong tonight so far. Let’s play a whole 40 minutes now!

Maceo seems likes he plays slow.

Nelson again. 3 bad passes