Massachusetts Minutemen

Date/Time: Saturday January 18th @ 4:30 PM at the Mullins Center in Amherst, MA.
Record Last Year: 11-21, 4-14 (T-12th in Atlantic 10)
Preseason Ranks: 240th (KenPom), 288th (Bart Torvik), 194th (Sports Illustrated), 196th (CBS). Torvik in particular seemed kind of harsh to begin the year, but I believe his rankings are weighted heavier on returning production, and UMass was expected to rely heavily on their incoming freshman class.
Projected Record: 12-19, 6-12 (T-10th in Atlantic 10)
Postseason Last Year: None.

Coaching Record: Matt McCall, 24-41 in 2 seasons at UMass, finishing 13th in the league in each of his first two years. Previously went 48-18 in Chattanooga, including winning 26 games his first year and taking his team to the NCAA tournament. Comparing the two, he had twice the number of overall wins at Chattanooga, and nearly three times the number of conference wins. His time with UMass hasn't been great, but I still believe he can turn things around with time. Whether he gets the chance to may be a different story.

All Time Record: 43-29, and we have won 7 games in a row in this matchup. We faced UMass at home last season, winning 79-67. We also beat them in the first round of the A10 tournament, 68-64 in overtime so UMass accounted for 22% of our overall wins last year. The first meeting was one of our better offensive performances last year, with Maceo leading the way with 20 points and three made threes to go with seven rebounds, Armel with 19 points and 4 assists, DJ with 15 points and 6 rebounds (looks like he finally ended up at DePaul as expected, wish him the best), and Justin added 12 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals. In the A10 tournament, offense was slightly harder to find, but Maceo again led the way with 19 points 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 steals, and after disappearing for a good second half of the season Terry returned for probably his final best performance in the buff and blue with 20 points off the bench. Hoping to see this Maceo show up tomorrow!

Offensive Efficiency: 148th (KenPom), 141st (Bart Torvik)
Defensive Efficiency: 218th (KenPom), 196th (Bart Torvik)
Tempo: 98th (KenPom), 99th (Bart Torvik)

Key Returning Players:
Carl Pierre (JR; Boston, MA) 11.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg; 40% FG, 38% 3-pt, 70% FT
      In 2 games against us last year: 13 ppg, 4 rpg, 1 apg in 37.5 minutes.

Keon Clergeot (RS JR; Auburndale, FL) 7.5 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.8 apg; 41% FG, 38% 3-pt, 79% FT
      In 2 games against us last year: 14 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 0.5 apg in 25 minutes. All of his production came pretty much in the second game when he had 25 points.

Key Losses:
Luwane Pipkins (Transferred to Providence; Chicago, IL) 16 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 5.2 apg; 35% FG, 28% 3-pt, 81% FT
Rashaan Holloway (Graduated; Elmer, NJ) 9.6 ppg, 6 rpg; 68% FG, 50% FT
Jonathan Laurent (Transferred to Oklahoma State; Orlando, FL) 9.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 1.5 apg; 54% FG, 47% 3-pt, 86% FT
Curtis Cobb III (Transferred to Wagner; Fall River, MA) 8.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.4 apg; 39% FG, 33% 3-pt, 52% FT

Comments:
There is no doubt that Matt McCall is starting to feel some pressure after a pretty disappointing second season in Amherst. During this past offseason, McCall shook up his coaching staff in a major way, which strikes me as somewhat of a panic move especially since Rasheen Davis struck me as a top notch recruiter. Anyways, unless the team shows promise and/or growth, McCall could very well find himself in the hot seat come March.

The Minutemen started off with a relatively light schedule, going 5-0 against rival UMass Lowell by 15 (a mediocre team), Fairfield by 2 (a bit too close for comfort), Northeastern by 9 (a solid win, Jordan only scored 14 in that contest), Central Connecticut State by 46 (one of the worst teams in the country), and Rider by 10 (an okay to decent team). Then, the schedule got noticeably more difficult, and the losses start to pile up. UMass lost their next six to bigger schools and decent mid-majors in Virginia (#7 at the time by 12), St. John's by 15 (better than expected this year, but still not very good), Rutgers by 25 (perhaps the biggest surprise team in college basketball this year), South Carolina by 4 (Jair weirdly only played 8 minutes in that contest), Harvard by 34, and a tough loss to a good Yale team in overtime by 3. They wrapped up OOC play by beating a not good Maine team by 21 (but still probably the best Black Bear team in years), and losing to a good Akron squad by 6 (definitely one of the MAC favorites this year).

Like us, they are 1-3 in conference play and many of the losses are comparable: losing to SLU by 3 in OT (road), St. Bonaventure by 13 (a game that was weirdly played at a neutral site) and Dayton by 28 (road), while winning against La Salle by 8 (home). UMass is 6-2 at home overall, so things won't be easy.

As you can see above, UMass had a good number of players in the key losses section. Credit McCall for bringing in one of the most talented classes in the A10 to replace the lost production and give him an opportunity to point to the long-term potential of his freshman class should things not improve too much in his third year. His biggest catch was forward Tre Mitchell, a four star recruit from Pittsburgh who picked UMass over a number of bigger programs based on the ability to start from day 1 and be a leader for the team. Mitchell is top three on the team in every statistical category. He paces the team in ppg at 15.5, is second in rebounding (6.2), third in assists (1.6), second in steals (1.1), and second in blocks (1.1). He also leads the team with 3.4 turnovers per game, but that comes with the high usage. Mitchell is decent from the line at 68% and can finish around the rim, but is just 29% from deep. I worry about our ability to guard him if Amir and AT don't get back soon. Unfortunately their fellow freshman Weeks (whose father played for the Minutemen in the 90s) went down with a non-sports related abdominal issue that will sideline him for some time. Weeks was off to a fantastic start shooting the ball, and was averaging 14.7 ppg. Sean East II has emerged as their lead orchestrator on offense as a frosh, averaging 11.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, and 5 apg, the last category which far away leads the team. Although he can be a bit turnover prone, East has had some good moments this year and is a pretty solid three level scorer. He shoots 79% from the line (second best on team) and has made 37% of his threes on the year.

The Minutemen do have a few players returning from last year, most noticeably the junior tandem of guards Carl Pierre and Keon Clergeot. Pierre is more or less the same player we've faced in previous years. He's upped his scoring ever so slightly to 14.1 ppg, and adds some rebounding with about 4 boards a contest. With Weeks sidelined, Pierre is definitely their best shooter now, leading the team in free throw percentage at 88% and also making 41% of his threes on the year (he leads the team as well in made threes with 50). Clergeot, the former Memphis guard, hasn't been very efficient as a shooter this year, but serves as a second point guard in some lineups (second on team in assists) and can add some scoring when his number is called. Sophomore Samba Diallo has also upped his average somewhat as a key role player on offense. Diallo is their best rebounder at 6.4 rpg, and can also assist in the scoring department. He is a solid shooter across the board (has a FG-3pt-FT slash of 41-31-67) and may be considered an x-factor for the team.

The remainder of the UMass rotation is somewhat hard to pinpoint based on guys who have been in and out of the lineup. Senior Djery Baptiste and freshman Preston Santos have appeared in all games so far, so expect to see them for maybe 10 minutes or so in the game. Neither is a big scorer. Baptiste, who started his career at Vanderbilt, is more of a defensive player who can provide some rim protecting and rebounding. Santos, a former GW target, has actually shot the ball well in limited time - 58% from the field, and 40% from deep, but his defense hasn't probably been good enough to warrant more time. With Chatman deciding to transfer, Cleveland State transfer Dibaji Walker has replaced him midseason (after finally getting his waiver cleared) but has so far not shot the ball well or done too much. We may see some other guys as well (the rest of the freshman class) based on the pace that UMass plays, but they don't figure to make big impacts either.

This figures to be a good road test against two teams trying to avoid playing the first night in the A10 tournament. If we can continue to keep our offense clicking and show some 'mayhem' this one can be close. I would love for at least one of AT or Amir to return to help out our really thin frontcourt right now.

Predicted Score: UMass 75, GW 67. 22% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN gives us a 27% chance to win. No road game is easy, but based on our recent success against them and our improved performance I like us to keep the game closer than what's expected and have a better chance to win (maybe in the high 30s in terms of percent).
 

This game will be shown on NBC SportsNetwork

I believe UMass' trio of outstanding freshman(Tre Mitchell, Sean East II, Weeks) were all teammates in high school last year. McCall hired their coach which led to all of them signing with UMass. I'm assuming McCall shook up his coaching staff in order to land that particular assistant. 

I was somewhat surprised to see the line at GW +5.5. I was expecting anywhere form  pick em to GW + 3, given that the teams have identical conference and overall records.  UMass seems to do okay at home, but may see GW as that easy conference win at home that they are looking for and be ripe for an ambush by a steadily improving GW team that has now been competitive in all 4 conference games.  Without knowing the status of Toro and Harris, I would not touch this game, however if the 2 are healthy, GW may be a very god bet, perhaps even on a money line wager.  Should also be a decent indicator as to how far GW has progressed.

Umass board: https://www.umasshoops.com/newboard/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=16301. They're basically saying this is a must-win.

Harris would be extremely helpful against this press.

Harris is in now.

Still no Toro however

Toro home with an injury per announcer

Both teams looking lost on offense.