If Hofstra began this season with a KenPom over 20 spots worse than where they finished last season, and their best player over the past few seasons, Aaron Estrada, is now playing for Alabama, can anyone please explain why Hofstra is even better this season?

I think Jones may be a redshirt candidate but not sure. Smith missed some preseason so I don't know where he is at currently.

Looking forward to Hofstra and more home cooking once again.  Would like to see us kick up the intensity a bit from the get go.  Against W&M we lost the first four 50-50 balls. 

Just as winning, shooting, and rebounding can be contagious, I hope Max’s game rubs off on everyone.  Great to see his development with less turnovers and more discipline.  JB4 needs to tighten up the passing game and limit the 3 point attempts from 35 feet. Otherwise let him be him in the rhythm of the game.

Really like the athleticism of Stretch, Jacoi, and Darren.  They run the floor very well and have good length.  Jacoi has obviously focused on D but does have a nice shot as well. Great motor as they say.

I’m sure they’ll fix the press break along with some defensive rotation issues.

This is a likable team and coaching staff.  Looking forward to their growth and success.

Don't sleep on Hofstra ... whether they are better or worse than last year remains to be seen but they are certainly capable. They played Princeton tough (who is good and who beat Rutgers opening night).

Hofstra Pride

Date: Tuesday November 14th, 2023
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center (Washington, DC)
TV: ESPN+
Analytic Ranks: 135th (KenPom), 126th (EvanMiya), 103rd (Haslametrics)
2022-23 Record: 25-10, 16-2 (T-1st in CAA)
2023-24 Projected Record: 17-12, 12-6 (T-1st in CAA)

Head-to-Head: 3-2. Hofstra's win last season 85-80 snapped GW's three game winning streak in the series. Unlike the William & Mary series, most of our matchups against Hofstra have been more recent - four of the five head-to-heads have come since 2012. The NIT matchup is well-remembered, but Hofstra actually did play GW tough back in 2013 as well, taking a three point lead into halftime before a strong second half for the Buff and Blue (outscored the Pride 40-26) made the difference. The 2012 matchup was perhaps the only time where GW controlled the game wire-to-wire (80-56) as that team shot a scorching 62% from the field and finished with 26(!) assists, led by Lasan Kromah's 15 points.

Offensive Efficiency: 107th (KenPom), 89th (EvanMiya), 104th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 181st (KenPom), 195th (EvanMiya), 138th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 159th (KenPom), 218th (EvanMiya), 185th (Haslametrics)
Roster Rank: 166th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 145th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 89th
Rim & 3 Rate: 75% (249th)

Strengths:
Field Goal Percentage - 48% (19th)
Field Goals Made Per Game - 28.6 FGM (22nd)
Personal Fouls Per Game - 14.4 PF/G (23rd)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 30.7% (28th)
Opponent Free Throws Made - 10.4 FTM (28th)
Opponent Field Goal Percentage - 40.8% (33rd)
Opponent Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 15 FTA (40th)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 36.7% (49th)
Blocks Per Game - 4.2 BPG (50th)
3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 8.7 3PM (52nd)
Opponent Free Throw Percentage - 69.5% (67th)
Opponent Points Per Game - 66.4 PPG (70th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 26 DRPG (T-83rd)
Assists Per Game - 14.4 APG (84th)
Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 59.5 FGA (90th)
3-PT Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 23.6 3PA (92nd)
Opponent Steals Per Game - 5.8 SPG (93rd)
Free Throw Percentage - 73.9% (97th)
Points Per Game - 74.8 PPG (101st)

Weaknesses:
Rebounds Per Game - 33.7 RPG (245th)
Opponent Field Goal Attempts Per Game - 60.4 FGA (308th)
Opponent Rebounds Per Game - 36.5 RPG (313th)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 7.7 ORPG (331st)
Opponent Personal Fouls Per Game - 15.2 PF/G (333rd)
Opponent Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 11.8 ORPG (343rd)
Free Throws Made Per Game - 9 FTM (360th)
Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 12.1 FTA (362nd)

Key Returning Players:
Tyler Thomas (Senior; New Haven, CT) - 16.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.3 apg; 50% FG, 41% 3-PT, 78% FT per 33.3 mpg
      Last Season @ Hofstra: 17 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists; 7-12 FG, 2-5 3-PT, 1-2 FT in 35 minutes.

Darlinstone Dubar (Junior; Charlotte, NC) - 10.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1 apg; 51% FG, 40% 3-PT, 72% FT per 25 mpg
      Last Season @ Hofstra: 13 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist; 6-14 FG, 1-3 3-PT in 22 minutes.

Jaquan Carlos (Junior; Brooklyn, NY) - 6.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.5 spg; 36% FG, 32% 3-PT, 79% FT per 32.7 mpg
      Last Season @ Hofstra: 3 points, 1 rebound, 6 assists, 1 steal; 1-6 FG, 1-3 3-PT in 31 minutes.

German Plotnikov (Junior; Minsk, Belarus) - 5.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg; 43% FG, 30% 3-PT, 81% FT per 17.1 mpg
      Last Season @ Hofstra: 6 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist; 2-6 FG, 2-3 3-PT in 21 minutes.

Key Losses:
Aaron Estrada (Transferred to Alabama; Woodbury, NJ) - 20.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.5 spg; 48% FG, 37% 3-PT, 81% FT per 37.2 mpg
Warren Williams (Graduated; Kingston, Jamaica) - 8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.3 bpg; 63% FG, 64% FT per 19.3 mpg
Amar'e Marshall (Transferred to Albany; Montclair, NJ) - 5 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1 apg; 43% FG, 41% 3-PT, 78% FT per 12.4 mpg

Key Transfers:
Jacco Fritz (Senior transfer from Canisius; Tiel, Netherlands) - 8.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.7 apg; 56% FG, 42% 3-PT, 68% FT per 27 mpg
Silas Sunday (Sophomore transfer from Iona; Lucan, Ireland) - 1.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg; 56% FG, 50% FT per 5 mpg
Myles Wilmoth (Senior transfer from Butler; Chestnut Ridge, NY) - 0.7 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 0.5 bpg; 20% FG, 9% 3-PT per 5.6 mpg

Preview:
A head coach's second year is generally considered to be a better indicator as to how good of a coach they are. Speedy Claxton didn't inherit the worst situation when taking over as head coach - his predecessor Joe Mihalich was winning at a high level prior to his sudden leave of absence due to a medical issue, as the Pride won at least 19 games three straight years before the weird COVID season (including an impressive 41-13 in CAA play). However, it's generally year 2 when a coach's identity begins to take hold within a program.

Claxton certainly put any doubts to bed by following a 21 win season with 25 wins in his second year. He's certainly one of the success stories of guys returning to their alma mater as a head coach. By my count, there's 50 head coaches in D1 who are currently coaching at their alma mater, which makes up less than 14% of coaches around the country (I believe the NEC has the most by conference with 5). Depending on how matchups play out in the Bahamas, we may face up to nine coaches under this category over the course of the season (the first one happened opening night against Stonehill).

Claxton has without a doubt put Hofstra in a position to contend in the CAA every year. Part of this may be due to the schools the conference has added over the past few years. To be fair, all moves are made with football in mind, but take a look at the schools that have been added to the recently rebranded Coastal Athletic Association:

Stony Brook has potential as a program and is well-regarded academically, but in basketball the Seawolves have been trending downwards the past few years and that was while they were still in the America East. Jeff Boals (more on him in a couple weeks) got the team to a top 175 finish prior to leaving, but Geno Ford has gone from 192 to 236 to 251 to 328 in his first four years. Ford is a decent recruiter who has had some bad injury luck, but the slide is apparent.

North Carolina A&T is generally considered to be one of the better funded HBCUs, so it's not exactly surprising to see them go from the MEAC to the Big South to now the CAA in a short period of time. Despite potentially being a good add in other areas, it's certainly not one for basketball. You can point and say the MEAC is a league that's impossible to notch top 200 finishes in, but Norfolk State has proven to get there occasionally under Robert Jones. They only spent the one year in the Big South so it's hard to say what the team could look like in a bigger conference so far. It hasn't helped that they've had a bit of a poor track record when it comes to hiring head coaches recently. New head coach Monte Ross is coach #4 since 2017.

Unlike A&T, Hampton had pockets of success in the MEAC in the early 2000s and at least had once top 200 finish while they were in the Big South for four years. However, the Pirates have seriously struggled the past four years under longtime head coach Ed Joyner, failing to even crack the top 300 since 2020.

Monmouth definitely looked like one of the better additions on paper. Under King Rice, the Hawks have traditionally gone the "old-fashioned way" when it comes to improvement year over year. The team is bad when they are very young, but by the time they become upperclassmen the program is generally very competitive. Monmouth even managed to notch a couple of top 100 finishes before a slight step back. There was some momentum after they finished fringe top 150 in their final year in the MAAC, but they simply lost too much last year to be a factor. Long term, they should be able to compete but Rice will have to embrace the transfer portal a lot more.

Finally, Campbell is the latest school to be joining this year. Over the past several years, the Fighting Camels have been respectable but overall mediocre in the Big South. They lost a lot in the transfer portal this past year, but I'm not sure they are a program that really moves the needle when it comes to basketball. McGeehan runs the Princeton offense which I guess is unique compared to other teams but the school hasn't made the NCAA tournament since 1992.

All of this is to say is that it feels like the CAA has added schools for the sake of adding schools because they're really worried about stability long-term. Kind of like the MAC, the league at the top is really good and could be a multi-league conference if they didn't have so much dead weight (like outright bad teams that are 300+ bad). Unfortunately, it appears that all these additions are only going to decrease the prestige at least when it comes to basketball. I generally thought of the CAA as just a slight step down from the A10, but I think there is a bit more separation even with the A10 being a bit down recently. That's good news for Hofstra to remain competitive within the league given their current trajectory.

Now it has to be mentioned that for the first time in Claxton's coaching tenure, Aaron Estrada will no longer be leading the way in Hempstead. He averaged 20.2 ppg, good for 22nd nationally and we saw first hand what he can do offensively after he dropped 33 in Hofstra's win last season. That was his second highest output last year, as he did hit 40 with 8 made threes against Elon during conference play. Estrada's value came from more than just scoring though, as he was a focal point in orchestrating the offense (4.3 apg - 108th nationally), hitting the glass where he averaged over 5 boards a contest, and even making his mark defensively with 1.5 swipes per game. Claxton has recruited from the portal well every year but a natural step back to some degree is expected after losing a stud like that.

I feel like JB's 44 point performance needs to be celebrated more though despite the final result. That was tied for the seventh highest scoring performance all year in college basketball, but keep in mind Bishop did it within 40 minutes. All but one of the other six guys needed one or more overtimes to hit the 40+ point mark for the game (the only other player to do it in regulation was Trenton Massner of Western Illinois, who scored 46 but also played one more minute than JB). Just an incredible performance by JB and one that will be remembered for some time to come (despite it being a loss). I guess that's where CC is coming from when he wants JB to prove that he is a winning player...

Estrada may be out the fold but Hofstra still has plenty of talent and firepower. The baton is now being passed to former Sacred Heart transfer Tyler Thomas to lead the way. Thomas was the best three point shooter on the team, both in makes (92) and percentage (41% - 19th nationally). He played the Robin role next to Estrada very well overall, but it will be interesting to see how he fares as Batman this season. It does help that he was the lead guy at Sacred Heart so it's not a completely new situation for him. He may need to add some facilitating responsibilities on his plate though sans Estrada.

The new #2 option now becomes former Iowa State guard/forward Darlinstone Dubar, another highly efficient three level scorer offensively who can guard a number of positions and use his 6-8 frame to be an effective rebounder. I guess the next step for him is to be more of an impact defender. He didn't check out as a bad defender by any means, but somehow his measurements/length suggest he should be more disruptive on that end than he is currently.

Thomas and Dubar form a potent duo shooting the ball, but there needs to be someone who can get them the ball, even more so without Estrada. Now an upperclassman, Jaquan Carlos should be able to lead the way on that front. Carlos reminds me a bit of Yuri Collins of SLU. They both happen to stand exactly at 6 feet tall, but the comparisons go beyond that. Collins was never the most elite shooter (like Carlos), but he was a very effective pass-first guard who doubled as a pesky defender. It's still early, but Carlos is averaging a staggering 8.5 assists in Hofstra's first two games, which is seventh best in the nation. He had an off night shooting the ball in last year's contest, but did find his way to a six assist performance.

Hofstra has two other key returning guards in Belarusian German Plotnikov and Penn transfer Bryce Washington.

Plotnikov who hasn't quite lived up to expectations as a shooter after coming over from North Platte CC, where he shot 40% from distance on nearly four attempts per game. Last season he finished under 30% from 3 last year and didn't really do much otherwise to justify extended court time. His experience and size (which helps defensively) will likely give him the nod to play a sizable role early on, but I wouldn't be surprised if others jump him on the depth chart if they shoot the three better. Having more familiarity playing D1 ball should also help.

Washington enters his second year in the program but has struggled to make a major impact after a promising freshman campaign at Penn back in the 2018-19 season. When he's been on the court he's shot well from distance (37% from 3 in his career) but hasn't done much otherwise. It didn't help that the Ivy canceled their season in 2020-21 and Washington was shut down the season before due to injury after just 9 games. If he can turn back the clock and recapture his freshman year form, Hofstra will be in even better shape.

A couple of rising sophomores should see expanded roles this season. Griffin Barrouk had an 11 point performance against UMass early last year but he then proceeded to score just 3 points the rest of the year as minutes in the backcourt were tough to find. He's another guy who has the ability to knock down threes which should earn him the chance to earn a rotation role at the very least. Christian Tomasco adds height and probably has an easier path to playing time with the few bigs that Hofstra has on their roster (Dubar has height but prefers to play along the perimeter). His ability to score inside would provide much needed balance to the Pride's attack. Tomasco made his season debut against Princeton, but somehow didn't attempt a shot in 13 minutes of action.

There's less pressure for the non-impactful returners to produce as Claxton was active in the portal again this season. Unsurprisingly, they all come in the frontcourt where there were major holes to fill:

Jacco Fritz averaged nearly eight points and over five rebounds per game in his four years at Canisius which will give Hofstra an interior presence with Warren Williams out of the fold. Hofstra's bigs haven't been huge three point threats in the recent past, but Fritz notably converted on 42% of his limited attempts from 3 in his final year at Canisius. He should be able to step into the CAA and play at a high level with his experience.

Silas Sunday is another international big (Ireland) who stands at 7 feet tall. He played sparingly at Iona, playing over 10 minutes in a game just once all season. His best performance of the season (6 points against Rider) sadly came on a Saturday and not on a Sunday. Regardless, he should be able to carve out a much larger role at Hofstra, albeit with a bit of unevenness in play with more minutes. There is without a doubt some talent there if Pitino wanted him. Sunday notably did not play against Princeton (Tomasco took his place), but it's unclear whether that was due to injury or a matchup thing.

Finally, Myles Wilmoth (formerly at Butler) arrives as the second high-major transfer on the team outside of Dubar. A return closer to home may be just what he needed. Wilmoth averaged 6.5 ppg against two formidable opponents in Houston and Texas A&M in an early-season MTE for Butler last year, so the potential is there even if he only scored one point in garbage time during Big East play.

A pair of freshmen in KiJan Robinson and Khalil Farmer (redshirt) will fight for whatever minutes remain. Robinson, a Florida native, has shot the ball well in the early going and should be in line for bigger minutes later in the year or in his sophomore campaign. Farmer is a bit further behind offensively but is a pesky on-ball guard.

Obviously, this is the toughest team that GW will have faced yet but the principles from the W&M game remain. Nearly half (49%) of Hofstra's attempts have come from 3 on the season. It will be paramount that the team comes out more ready to be able to defend the three than they did against the Tribe. To Hofstra's credit, they actually fared well in a number of categories defensively which set them apart from most of their CAA peers. It's especially impressive that they held teams to under 41% from the field given the offense-first league that they are in.

If there is one category that's key tomorrow, it's rebounding. The Pride aren't terrible in that category, but this is a team that's not particularly proficient with regards to offensive rebounding (331st nationally) and they additionally concede a lot of second chance opportunities on the other end (343rd nationally). As others have mentioned, that's an area that GW has struggled somewhat in thus far on the year. We know Hofstra will take a lot of threes, so GW needs to be prepared for the ball to bounce at weird angles off the rim when a 3 is missed. Max showed good instincts/positioning against W&M to come down with a lot of boards, but he'll need help. Hofstra was allergic when it came to getting to the FT line last year (only Penn State attempted fewer FTs per game) so foul trouble shouldn't be an issue like in the W&M game. I think(?) this should be a better matchup for Stretch, although Fritz can shoot the occasional three. So far, the trio of Fritz-Tomasco-Sunday have not attempted a three, and Wilmoth has yet to play.

Projected Score: GW 83, Hofstra 82. 51% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 30.8%(?) chance to begin the year 3-0 at home. Hofstra is good, but the latter percentage feels a bit low with the game being at home. This feels pretty close to a toss-up game.
 

Ditto from me too, DMV.   FYI...Fanduels has the game as GW -2.5.

Hofstra board.  Interesting reading on how Princeton beat them.

https://flyingdutchmenfans.com/viewforum.php?f=2

One thing I’d add is that last year’s game was a pretty tough loss and got chippy a few times (mainly with Estrada I think).  Extra motivation for Bishop and Edwards.

Last edited by BM (11/14/2023 9:54 am)

BM wrote:

Hofstra board.  Interesting reading on how Princeton beat them.

https://flyingdutchmenfans.com/viewforum.php?f=2

One thing I’d add is that last year’s game was a pretty tough loss and got chippy a few times (mainly with Estrada I think).  Extra motivation for Bishop and Edwards.

Thanks for posting.  Reading their board it’s clear that locking down Thomas  really stifles their whole offense. It all revolves around his shooting (and Carlos penetrating, so that will be a good test of JBIV’s defensive improvement).

moneybox wrote:

GW was a 4-8 point underdog earlier in the week. Today we are a 1-2.5 point underdog. Big betting changes have obviously occurred but I'm not sure why. This will be a tough game and, remember, Hofstra beat us there last season. 

Where did you get  your lines?  After I read  your post, I double checked the line on FanDuel, as earlier I posted we were a 2.5 favorite.   When I checked just now, we are still favorite, but by 1.5.  Same as with BetMGM   (I guess the so-called smart money likes Hofstra) as we are getting fewer points now..    

Long Suffering Fan wrote:

A very in depth pre-game article from a sports handicapper who is picking GW by 1 tonight.

https://winnersandwhiners.com/games/ncaab/11-14-2023/hofstra-vs-george-washington-prediction-8172/

Got to be the first prognostication that identifies the need for Laziz to step it up for GW to find success. Can’t wait for the early part of the season to be over so these forecasts can be based a little more on the realities of play this season.