I am looking forward to the freshman and Sophia continuing to grow from mistakes.  I think every team hopes to continue to improve - as Alum1 states in the other thread.  I think with such little experience and lots of youth it is hard for them to understand the need to make adjustments.  Our team looked great the 1st few games - all new talent, no game film for opponents to prepare.  If they looked at CCs film from last year, it would not help at all. 

Now there is tape on our newcomers tendencies- for example they trap off Stretch’s pick because they know he is not very adept at receiving and finishing.  They play off Benny since they have not seen any reliable 3pt shot.

Our freshman will take lumps as they learn they need to adjust. This is new for most since it just did not happen as much in HS and AAU. 

Looking forward to a competitive A-10 year.

GW by 10

That UConn vs St Johns game was a helluva battle.  The intensity was palpable.  An old school Big East slugfest

Very impressed by the way Pitino has St Johns playing especially on D

UConn without Clingan for 3-4 weeks going to really hurt.  Seeing him now top 10 on NBA draft boards.  Castle of course too

DMV will have to fill us in on why Maryland-ES has slipped from last year

I’m sorry. Did I miss the 6 straight games we lost at the beginning of the conference season? All the wailing about the OOC schedule and the observed issues of concern about the team’s play certainly have many in a tizzie. Maybe wait to see how they play against the A10 opposition before going into the traditional GW fan base tear down of the players, coaches, athletic department and anything else GW. Haven’t seen much reason to criticize what Caputo has done in 1 1/2 years at  GW. Quite the opposite.

We should all be proud of the record and he far we have come under this coach (and even the last year of Christian.   Having said that, one also has to be concerned whether playing  of the softest schedules in D-1 has adequately prepared us to compete in a conference with numerous top 100 teams.   It as Poog says, time will tell.

Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks

Date: Saturday December 30th, 2023
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center
TV: ESPN+
Analytic Ranks: 356th (KenPom), 355th (EvanMiya), 354th (Haslametrics)
NET Ranking: 342nd
2022-23 Record: 18-13, 9-5 (T-3rd in MEAC)
2023-24 Projected Record: 10-18, 5-9 (7th in MEAC)

Head-to-Head: 7-0. Six of the seven meetings against the Hawks have come after 2000. In the six most recent games, GW has turned the ball over at least 14 times. GW has won on average by a slim margin of 5 ppg in the last two games.

In last year's game, GW came out on top 69-64 in a game that wasn't as close as the final score would indicate. Neither team could get it going from 3, as the teams combined to shoot 10/42 from distance (23.8%). To say that the team was melting under pressure would be an understatement. The Buff and Blue were up by 17(!) with two minutes to go, but UMES refused to call off the dogs and to their credit they may have made the game closer or even upset GW had the game gone on two minutes longer with the way things were trending. GW helped out by coughing up the ball four times in the final two minutes (and finished the game with 18 turnovers), but also missed four FTs during that stretch. JB, who is generally a clutch FT shooter, missed two from the line in the closing seconds as well. Sounds a bit similar to the W&M game from earlier in the year. JB led all scorers with 19 points, BA added 17 points/5 rebounds/6 assists, and Ricky chipped in with 14 points and 8 rebounds before fouling out. Coincidence or not, UMES went on their big run immediately after Lindo was disqualified. Not pinning anything on Qwanzi, but GW had one less reliable player who could break the pressure at that point.

The 2016 game sounds a lot like the 2022 edition. Both teams shot the ball a lot better, but GW finished the game with 20 turnovers. Having two studs like Tyler (24 points, 10 rebounds) and Yuta (18 points, 6 rebounds) made a world of difference, but GW still turned the ball over four times in the final 2.5 minutes and Yuta missed a couple FTs late to make things interesting. Unsurprisingly, a 12 point lead with 3 minutes to go ended up being a 4 point win. Both the 2016 and 2022 game saw GW concede over 40 points in the second half. That just cannot happen against a subpar offensive team.

Offensive Efficiency: 356th (KenPom), 354th (EvanMiya), 348th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 320th (KenPom), 329th (EvanMiya), 340th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 132nd (KenPom), 139th (EvanMiya), 193rd (Haslametrics)
Roster Rank: 359th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 270th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 298th
Rim & 3 Rate: 74% (322nd)

Strengths (2022-23 Season):
Opponent Turnovers Per Game - 19 TO/G (1st)
Steals Per Game - 11.1 SPG (2nd)
Opponent Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 54 FGA (49th)
Opponent Points Per Game - 66.3 PPG (67th)
Opponent Field Goals Made Per Game - 23.5 FGM (70th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 6.4 3PM (T-72nd)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 19.7 3PA (87th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 32.2% (88th)
3-PT Field Goal Attempts Per Game - 23.2 3PA (T-109th)

Weaknesses (2022-23 Season):
Opponent Personal Fouls Per Game - 15.9 PF/G (282nd)
Field Goal Percentage - 42.8% (283rd)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 31.8% (308th)
Rebounds Per Game - 31.9 RPG (316th)
Blocks Per Game - 1.9 BPG (344th)
Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 22 DRPG (353rd)

Key Returning Players:
Chace Davis (Junior; Accokeek, MD) - 7.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg; 43% FG, 38% 3-PT, 52% FT per 21.5 mpg
      Last Season vs. GW: 12 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 2 steals; 5-11 FG, 2-4 3-PT in 26 minutes.

Troy Hupstead (Junior; Mount Vernon, NY) - 5.1 ppg, 3 rpg; 52% FG, 27% 3-PT, 77% FT per 11.2 mpg
      Last Season vs. GW: 7 points, 3 rebounds; 3-5 FG, 1-2 3-PT in 13 minutes.

Key Losses:
Kevon Voyles (Transferred to Marshall; Cape Charles, VA) - 12.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2 spg; 49% FG, 33% 3-PT, 72% FT per 21.5 mpg
Zion Styles (Graduated; Uniondale, NY) - 11.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 2 spg; 46% FG, 41% 3-PT, 75% FT per 25.1 mpg
Nathaniel Pollard Jr. (Graduated; Richmond, VA) - 9.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.5 spg; 47% FG, 70% FT per 24.3 mpg
Da'Shawn Phillip (Transferred to Bowling Green; Baltimore, MD) - 9.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.3 spg; 40% FG, 33% 3-PT, 78% FT per 28.2 mpg
Donchevell Nugent (Graduated; Newburgh, NY) - 6.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.1 spg; 39% FG, 32% 3-PT, 74% FT per 17.8 mpg
Ahamadou Fofana (Graduated; Bronx, NY) - 5.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.3 spg; 38% FG, 40% 3-PT, 70% FT per 26.6 mpg

Key Transfers:
Kelechi Okworogwo (Sophomore transfer from Austin Peay; Bronx, NY) - 3.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg; 45% FG, 31% 3-PT, 67% FT per 11.2 mpg
Elijah Wilson (Junior transfer from Toledo; Lithonia, GA) - 0.5 ppg, 0.2 rpg, 0.1 apg; 13% FG, 25% 3-PT, 63% FT per 3.4 mpg

Preview:
The 2022-23 season was one to remember for Jason Crafton and his Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks. UMES finished the year 18-13, the best overall winning percentage for the program in over 40 years. For a team that has never made the NCAA tournament in its history, that's a really big deal. You could make the argument that it's the best team overall since that 1973-74 squad that made the NIT for the only time in school history. That Hawks squad was also briefly ranked #20 nationally in the AP Poll if you can believe it.

It has been very profitable to bet on UMES in recent years, thanks largely to the job Crafton has done assembling a competitive roster. The Hawks have gone 15-5 ATS out of conference the last two seasons, which is even more impressive if you recall that UMES was one of ten squads that had not played the 2020-21 season at all due to COVID. They were also able to keep up their level of play during the MEAC season, going a respectable 8-6-2 ATS. Guys like Rob Jones (Norfolk State), LeVelle Moton (NC Central), and Kenny Blakeney (Howard) are all deserving of praise (imagine what they could do at higher levels of CBB - a bigger school should take a chance on any of them) but Crafton certainly deserves more recognition for what he did last year at a place that's probably a bottom 5 job in D1.

UMES benefitted last season from returning the majority of their key players from the season before. This allowed the Hawks to play fairly cohesively, especially on the defensive end which has been the calling card for the team under Crafton. MD-ES was elite defensively, finishing 91st nationally in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Unsurprisingly, that was their best ever finish, surpassing their previous best rank (177th) from the season before. They got it done by applying pressure when the opposition least expected it. The Shore have finished top 10 in defensive turnover percentage the past two years, were second nationally in steals, and opponents coughed up the ball against them more than they did against any other team in the country. When you limit the opposition's ability to even get shots up, being able to put the ball in the basket efficiently matters less. That formula certainly worked against MEAC foes, as UMES got it done by making the games an ugly, low-scoring affair. 10 of their 16 games went to the under during MEAC play.

To answer Dude's question, UMES slipping this year can be easily explained - the Hawks lost six of their top eight scorers from last year. The core of Kevon Voyles, Zion Styles, Nathaniel Pollard Jr., Da'Shawn Phillip, Donchevell Nugent, and Ahamadou Fofana were also ballhawks defensively, living up to their team name (each player averaged a steal or more per game). With these six players out of the fold, nearly 3/4 of UMES's steals are out the door. Styles, a third-team all-MEAC selection and all-defensive team member, set the tone there, ranking 46th nationally in steals per game.

Losing Voyles, Styles, Phillip, Nugent, and Fofana means that Crafton has to re-teach his defensive principles to a new set of guards, but a case could be made that Pollard, a second-team all-MEAC selection last year, was the biggest loss of the bunch. He was very undersized for his position (6'5"), which did cause issues when teams were able to break MD-ES's perimeter shell, but his mobility allowed Crafton to roll with a very long, mobile 1-5 lineup that could really disrupt foes on defense. In a league like the MEAC that has few true bigs, this is an especially effective strategy. Pollard also did his thing on the boards, ranking 75th nationally with over 8 a game despite being a bit shorter than most of the guys he was going up against.

While this year's roster doesn't have a big with the active hands of Pollard, there is more size for Crafton to work with. That should help clean up the boards on defense which was the achilles heel in what was otherwise a stellar defense. Opponents were able to offensive rebound on 33.9% of missed shots, which ranked 346th nationally. That's a stat that probably applies less to a team like GW that doesn't really go for rebounds on that end but it did hurt against their conference foes who would make more of an effort there due to spotty shooting.

Crafton will look to build off the last two years with a pair of juniors in Chace Davis and Troy Hupstead returning from last year.

Davis was a part-time starter last year who was a bit of an anomaly compared to the other guards on the roster in that he was more offensively inclined than a defense-first player. He made the second most threes on the team last year, with nearly half of his attempts coming from there and he converted them at an impressive 38% clip from distance. Over the last ten games of the year, that percentage was closer to 40% as he finished in double figures in six of those games. Davis was also weirdly the worst FT shooter on the team (52%). He didn't have a ton of attempts, but that was a bit surprising given his shooting from outside. Crafton will need him to play a bigger role on defense and contribute in other areas apart from scoring.

Hupstead has a couple inches on Pollard, but is a different kind of player. Similar to Davis, he is a more complete product offensively than an enforcer defensively. He scored 11 points on three separate occasions over the final month of last season, showcasing the ability to take on a bigger load coming into the year. Hupstead can also step out and make a three. With Pollard out of the fold, he likely becomes the primary rebounder for the Hawks as well (he's 93rd nationally currently).

A trio of sophomores in Dionte Johnson, Toby Nnadozie, and Victory Naboya also return from last year's team.

Johnson, who played at the well-known Patrick School in Jersey during his HS years, may be the most critical piece for UMES coming into the year. He's the only player returning who averaged a steal or more per game and will play a large role in allowing the Hawks to continue to frustrate opponents defensively. Offensively, he is a bit raw shooting the ball but does possess some playmaking abilities as well.

Nnadozie is primarily a penetrating guard who attempted six threes last year. He missed all of them, and all the attempts came against non-D1 competition. The opportunity is there to earn more minutes this year but he's likely more of a rotation guy than outright starter right now.

Naboya was a guy who garnered GW interest earlier in his HS recruitment and also had an SMU offer at some point. He wasn't quite ready defensively last year but showcased a nice touch near the basket in limited time. Naboya still has a ways to go in development but has promise as a rim protector and his size alone will help the team.

Eight newcomers enter their first year with UMES as Crafton added pieces from the transfer portal, JUCO, and high school ranks. From the transfer portal, the Hawks landed Toledo transfer Elijah Wilson and Austin Peay transfer Kelechi Okworogwo.

Wilson, a native of Georgia, failed to crack the Rocket rotation due to his inability to consistently find his shot. Despite a rough start to his collegiate career, he adds quite a bit of firepower to a team that has never been offensively-inclined. Between him and Davis, it will be interesting whether Crafton shifts his focus to emphasizing scoring or if their shortcomings defensively hurt more (Toledo has been awesome offensively, but defense has been a bit optional).

Okworogwo played a larger role in APSU's rotation compared to Wilson last year and even started a handful of games for the Govs. He notably put up 11 points against Kennesaw State last year, a team that qualified for the NCAA tournament. His ability to play a number of positions at 6'6" may allow Crafton to recreate the mobile 1-5 lineup that was so effective defensively last year, albeit one that will be less experienced.

From the JUCO ranks, Crafton landed Tyler Mack, Malang Athian, Damani Claxton, Devon Ellis, and Israel Yaw.

Mack is a Michigan native who played on a 28-6 Henry Ford College squad. He averaged just under 11 a game but more importantly averaged over a steal per game at the school whose team name is also the Hawks. Is there a more unoriginal mascot in sports? If Mack can make a similar impact defensively despite a step up in competition, he should see minutes (although he may anyways given his experience).

Athian is a native of Australia who spent last season playing on a .500 Cloud County CC team in Kansas. Like Mack, he wasn't a primary scorer on the team but showed the ability to be moderately disruptive defensively with his 6'7" frame and was also most notably the best three point shooter on the squad, knocking down 38% of his triples.

Claxton is another NY guard on the roster. He was on a sub .500 Bossier Parish CC squad and was a bit inefficient offensively as a guy who likes to get the basket first and foremost. However, he did show promise defensively and led the Cavaliers in assists with nearly 4 a game. At the very least, his playmaking ability should help the Hawks out offensively.

Ellis is a midwestern guy - a native of Chicago who has spent the last couple years in Missouri between a prep year at Link Year and most recently State Fair CC. The Roadrunners were awful last year, but Ellis was a bright spot. He led the team in scoring with 13.3 ppg and shot over 44% from 3. Between him, Davis, and Wilson, there is a lot more offensive potential on the Hawks roster.

Finally, Yaw is the biggest body on the roster at 6'9". Despite his first name, he is actually a native of Guyana (more specifically, the capital which shares a name with the school from across the street). I don't believe he played anywhere last year (maybe due to injury) but previously played at ASA College Brooklyn back in 2021-22 where he averaged 12.6 ppg and 8.5 rpg. This year, he represented his country in the FIBA World Cup Pre-Qualifiers and averaged 3 points/3 rebounds and had 8 points/6 rebounds/2 blocks before fouling out against Costa Rica.

Finally, true freshman Antwan Wilson arrives in Princess Anne, but will likely not play too large of a role this year. The native of Salisbury, MD was a 1,000 point scorer in HS and apparently led the state in scoring at over 30 a game. That kind of scoring potential could really provide a boost once he adjusts to the college game.

Based on the predicted score, it would be nice to win this game by 20+, however more than anything it would be nice to see this team look more like the November version than the team we've seen the past few weeks. I could easily see a scenario where the team stops playing in the last few minutes so the margin looks closer than expected, but is the team communicating/playing with intensity? It's been reported that many members on the team have been under the weather the past few weeks, and hopefully the holiday break has provided a much needed reset.

I've intentionally left Bart Torvik out from the preview after his preseason predictions had GW at an absolutely stupid 293rd in the country to start the year. Having said that, his site is helpful when it comes to in-season trends, and you can see how a team's play has changed from one time period to another. According to the site, from November 6th (the start of the season) to November 30th, GW played like the 120th best team in the country. From December 1st to present, GW has played like the 218th best team in the country. That's quite a dropoff.

Gwmayhem wrote:

2) We are tied for 324th-326th in the country at committing turnovers at 14.8 per game. This is astounding on a number of different levels. First, the quality of our competition has been weak overall despite the fact that a number of our opponents this season do actively try to turn you over. So, some credit to the opposition despite their low rankings but GW really needs to look at itself in the mirror. Far too many unforced turnovers including risky cross court passes which seem to fail more often than succeed, as well as "unselfish" extra passes that end up being the wrong decision. Let's also add that while recent GW teams were limited with respect to the number of players who could truly take care of the ball, this team has more than enough players who should be capable at valuing each possession.

I am truly amazed that this team turns the ball over nearly 15 times a game against the schedule it has played.

This team is young and has also played at a fast pace which has resulted in many of those unforced turnovers. It would be ideal to improve in that department, but I think what makes the turnovers worse is that GW has never forced any turnovers on the other end to make up for these giveaways, a shortcoming of recent teams (this goes hand in hand with point #1 that GWMayhem pointed out with limited fast break opportunities). In the past month, the team has ranked 328th in offensive turnover percentage and 319th in turnover percentage defense, per Bart Torvik. That's a bad combination.

Gwmayhem wrote:

3) The stat I can't find is how many offensive rebounds GW is letting up, or how many points off of offensive rebounds the team is letting up. I'll have to settle for rebounding margin which is +2, good for a tie for 153rd-156th in the country. Not terrible except when you again consider the quality of the competition thus far.  This +2 really should be significantly higher.
 

Opponents against GW average 12.7 offensive rebounds per game which is tied for 339th in the country. That's not great, but I think offensive rebounding percentage is probably a better indicator given the teams we've faced aren't the best at shooting which will allow them more chances to rebound. Per KenPom, GW is 146th nationally in OR% on defense which is at least above average. The effort boxing out against Alcorn was definitely rough, but GW for the most part hasn't been awful in that department outside of a few stretches here and there.

Projected Score: GW 83, UMES 65. 95% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 89.9% chance to finish OOC play 11-2.
 

First, I will semi-facetiously point out that I will have a tough time following any handicapper who writes this:

George Washington beat Maryland Eastern Shore when the teams last met. It was a 69-64 scoreline.
Let's find another way of saying "scoreline" before I start taking you seriously.

Am not sure I realized this in the past but am guessing the DMVPiranha rankings (used to describe strengths and weaknesses) are based on last season and not the current season.  Case in point:  UMES may have been second in the nation at stealing the ball last year but they presently sit at 205th among D1 schools.

I do expect the team to come out a bit more determined having had 9 days to dwell over a lackluster win.  Am not sure I'll do it, but giving 17 1/2 seems like the correct play today.
 

Wow - what a bad half of defense

We don’t seem to be improving as the OCC season goes on. Once again we are struggling against one of the worst teams in Division I. Turnovers continue.

Note:GW was favored by 10 in the first half.
Don't know why we are so lackadaisical against lesser teams at Home,especially.
CC will prob send a deserved message at halftime,but once again for now,the opponent seems more determined.