Fordham Rams

Date: Wednesday January 3rd, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Charles E. Smith Center
TV: ESPN+
Analytic Ranks: 208th (KenPom), 181st (EvanMiya), 235th (Haslametrics)
NET Ranking: 223rd
2022-23 Record: 25-8, 12-6 (T-2nd in A10)
2023-24 Projected Record: 12-19, 6-12 (T-12th in A10)

Head-to-Head: 31-12. Fordham has won the past two meetings, but both of those games were played at Rose Hill. The Rams won last year's game 85-70, although the final score was not indicative of how the game went. GW entered the game winners of three in a row, including an overtime thriller against St. Joe's at home. The Buff and Blue kept up the high level of play in the first half, going into halftime with a four point lead.

Unfortunately, things got away from GW in the last eight minutes of the game as fatigue set in and a non-existent bench became an issue. The team turned the ball over 10 times in the final 9.5 minutes of the game, and JB was responsible for six of those during that span (and eight for the game). Credit Fordham/Urgo for making some changes at halftime and coming out of the break applying quite a bit more pressure defensively and tiring out GW's guards. I personally thought they did get away with a few slapped wrists on some of those takeaways, but GW was not secure with the ball at all. GW will definitely have to shoot the ball better than they did in that game - just 25% from 3 and 62% from the line. All five starters - BA (18 points), JBIV (15 points, 6 assists), Ricky (12 points, 10 rebounds, 4 steals), Hunter (10 points, 7 rebounds), and Max (10 points, 8 rebounds) finished in double figures.

In the last home game, GW won 64-55 during the 2021-22 season. The Buff and Blue went with just seven players in that game - but only two players finished in double figures: JB (25 points) and Ricky (10 points, 10 rebounds off the bench). Despite GW going into halftime with a seven point lead, Fordham gained momentum in the second half and took a five point lead with six minutes to go. A 12-0 GW run put the game away. JB in particular took over down the stretch, scoring 14 points in the final seven minutes of the game.

Offensive Efficiency: 303rd (KenPom), 281st (EvanMiya), 311th (Haslametrics)
Defensive Efficiency: 100th (KenPom), 102nd (EvanMiya), 116th (Haslametrics)
Pace: 50th (KenPom), 51st (EvanMiya), 35th (Haslametrics)
Roster Rank: 200th (EvanMiya)
Offensive Shot Quality Rank: 150th
Defensive Shot Quality Rank: 138th
Rim & 3 Rate: 88% (32nd)

Strengths (2023-24 Season):
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 16.7 3PA (T-8th)
Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 24.7 FTA (T-24th)
Opponent Turnovers Per Game - 15.9 TO/G (T-27th)
Opponent 3-PT Field Goals Made Per Game - 5.6 3PM (28th)
Opponent Personal Fouls Per Game - 20.1 PF/G (T-32nd)
Offensive Rebounds Per Game - 13.5 ORPG (T-35th)
Blocks Per Game - 4.8 BPG (T-47th)
Steals Per Game - 8.7 SPG (T-51st)
Free Throws Made Per Game - 16.1 FTM (T-65th)
Opponent Field Goals Attempted Per Game - 56.2 FGA (T-66th)
Opponent Assists Per Game - 11.5 APG (T-90th)
Rebounds Per Game - 38.5 RPG (T-96th)
Opponent Field Goals Made Per Game - 24 FGM (T-99th)
3-PT Field Goal Attempts Per Game - 24.2 3PA (T-107th)

Weaknesses (2023-24 Season):
Opponent Rebounds Per Game - 36.7 RPG (T-261st)
3-PT Field Goal Percentage - 30.8% (290th)
Opponent Defensive Rebounds Per Game - 26.6 DRPG (T-292nd)
Field Goals Made Per Game - 24.7 FGM (294th)
Field Goal Percentage - 41.1% (322nd)
Free Throw Percentage - 65.1% (326th)
Opponent Steals Per Game - 8.3 SPG (T-329th)
Opponent Free Throws Made Per Game - 17.3 FTM (341st)
Opponent Free Throws Attempted Per Game - 24.6 FTA (344th)
Personal Fouls Per Game - 20.4 PF/G (346th)

Key Returning Players:
Kyle Rose (Senior; Upper Marlboro, MD) - 7.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.8 spg; 36% FG, 33% 3-PT, 64% FT per 24.5 mpg
      2022-23 Season @ Fordham: 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals; 0-6 FG, 0-4 3-PT in 26 minutes.

Antrell Charlton (Senior; Live Oak, FL) - 7.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.3 spg; 39% FG, 28% 3-PT, 80% FT per 32.2 mpg
      2022-23 Season @ Fordham: 10 points, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 7 steals, 1 block; 3-9 FG, 2-6 3-PT, 2-2 FT in 35 minutes.

Will Richardson (Sophomore; Teaneck, NJ) - 6.6 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 1 apg; 40% FG, 42% 3-PT, 74% FT per 19.2 mpg
      2022-23 Season @ Fordham: 5 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals; 2-5 FG, 1-1 3-PT, 0-1 FT in 19 minutes.

Abdou Tsimbila (Senior; Yaoundé, Cameroon) - 5.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.9 bpg; 44% FG, 72% FT per 18.4 mpg
      2022-23 Season @ Fordham: 5 minutes played.

Key Losses:
Darius Quisenberry (Graduated; Springfield, OH) - 16.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.2 apg, 1.2 spg; 39% FG, 32% 3-PT, 83% FT per 35.3 mpg
Khalid Moore (Graduated; Elmont, NY) - 15.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.1 spg; 49% FG, 35% 3-PT, 77% FT per 31.2 mpg
Rostyslav Novitskyi (Graduated; Kyiv, Ukraine) - 6.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.3 bpg; 55% FG, 29% 3-PT, 64% FT per 17.5 mpg

Key Transfers:
Japhet Medor (Senior transfer from UTSA; Wellington, FL) - 13.7 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.5 spg; 41% FG, 31% 3-PT, 71% FT per 30.2 mpg
Joshua Rivera (Sophomore transfer from Lafayette; Old Bridge, NJ) - 10.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.6 apg; 45% FG, 33% 3-PT, 48% FT per 25.4 mpg
Ogheneyole "Savior" Akuwovo (Graduate Student transfer from Binghamton/Howard; Delta State, Nigeria) - 4 ppg, 4.1 rpg; 60% FG, 41% FT per 13 mpg

Preview:
The 2022-23 season may have been a down year for the A10, but it was a banner year for Fordham. Keith Urgo transformed the program both on and off the court. A considerable uptick in fan engagement was noticeable, and Rose Hill Gymnasium suddenly became a venue that gave visiting teams fits. It's amazing what winning does for any program, but especially one that has been down as long as Fordham - for the school's alums, it became actually cool to root for and support the Rams.

Then you have the on-court achievements. Fordham won 25 games last year, the most wins recorded by the program in 32 years. That was the last time they even won 20. The Rams went over .500 in the A10 at 12-6, which hadn't been done since 2007 - the only other time the school had won 10 or more conference games in the league and the last time they finished top 150 in KenPom. While the team has in recent years taken pride in being a defense-first squad, the offense took a noticeable jump. It was the first time in seven seasons that Fordham was not a bottom 50 offensive efficiency squad, per KenPom. Urgo's group averaged 72 ppg, the most since 2001.

I could keep going, but you get the point. There was great skepticism as to whether Urgo would be able to maintain the upward trajectory that Kyle Neptune kickstarted in his lone year with the program before bolting for Villanova. If last season was any indication, Urgo did that and then some. As much as I loved the job CC did last year, Urgo was very much deserving of coach of the year. (For the most part, I didn't have any problem with the postseason awards but I still find Ace Baldwin a bit overrated and not really player of the year material. He's a good player and VCU won the league, but I think him winning showed how weak the league was last season. I probably would have gone with Holmes.)

So how did Fordham get to 25 wins? It's hard to take a look at their season last year and not draw some comparisons to this year's GW squad. As of January 2nd, this year's GW team has currently played the weakest schedule in the country. The same was true for that Ram squad last season through OOC play. There were definitely some differences - Fordham had more experienced pieces compared to GW, though to be fair I'm not sure any coach has rebuilt a team with as much inexperience as CC chose to do - certainly an interesting case study, but that's a topic for another day. You could probably also make the argument that their schedule was tougher and that they performed better - the Rams faced a top 10 team, beat UIC unlike us, and also won a road game against Tulane but both schedules were designed for a similar purpose. That is, to win and win big to boost the team's NET ranking. There were the double digit wins over New Hampshire and Stonehill like us, and Fordham even won an overtime game against a military academy just like GW (VMI for them, Navy for us).

As alluded to above, Fordham found success by clamping down on the defensive end. That's a common trait of all Ram teams in recent memory going back to Jeff Neubauer's first year at the school in 2016. All of Neubauer's squads emphasized that side of the ball and often times neglected the other, resulting in grind it out, low scoring games. The past eight Fordham squads have all had defensive turnover percentages that ranked in the top 150 nationally, and Neubauer's first couple of squads ranked top 10 in the country.

Neptune and now Urgo have maintained that pressure along the perimeter, but have added a couple wrinkles. While Neubauer seemed to live with teams launching from deep, his successors have made a concerted effort to take the three point shot away. Fordham has ranked top 100 in defensive three point attempt rate the past two years, limited second chance opportunities (top 150 in offensive rebounding percentage on defense the last few seasons), and all shots in general have been contested at a higher level - although that has led to overplaying, committing too many fouls, and sending teams to the FT line at high rates as a downside of playing this way. Thankfully, Fordham has boosted their offense a bit to offset that - they get to the line frequently themselves and crash the glass on offense as shooting has been deficient for a while now. Fordham has not shot above 35% from deep in a season since 2007, per KenPom.

The one guy that has been the centerpiece of this disruptive defense through the Neubauer, Neptune, and Urgo eras is Kyle Rose, who enters his fifth year with the program. Rose, a native of Maryland and all-defensive team selection, has seen it all - two single digit win seasons under Neubauer, a .500 season under Neptune, and most recently a 20 win year when Urgo took over. He deserves a lot of credit for sticking it out through multiple coaching changes even when not winning a whole lot. While he will never light it up offensively (he's never shot above 38% from the field in a season), his value on defense cannot be refuted as he's averaged 1.5 steals per game over his career (61st nationally in steals this year). Rose is shooting the three better this year (37%) but has taken a step back in FT shooting (just 48%).

Despite losing their top two scorers in Darius Quisenberry and Khalid Moore (the only two to also average double figures scoring) Fordham returns a bunch of returning production from last year apart from Rose. Antrell Charlton, Will Richardson, and Abdou Tsimbila likely all find their way into the starting lineup as each player appeared in every game last season and averaged double digit minutes.

Charlton is a do-it-all player who led the team in assists last season despite not being a true PG. Like Rose, he's not the most efficient player offensively (and has also taken a step back in FT percentage) but he's an active defender. In last year's game, he finished with a ridiculous seven steals.

Although he did not qualify for the all-rookie team last year, Richardson had an impressive freshman season shooting the ball. While he did not do a whole lot else, he thrived in catch and shoot situations, taking over half his shots from distance and converting on nearly 42% of his attempts. This year, Richardson has seen his production improve offensively and he's also made strides as a defender although his efficiency has not matched last year shooting-wise.

Tsimbila is a true post player who attempted just one three last year. Given that, his conversion rate around the rim has been subpar in past seasons (although he has improved thus far on the year) but he is a magnet for rebounds, can score inside, and provides Fordham a rim protector. Tsimbila is fourth nationally in blocks at 2.9 per game - just behind Stretch who is currently second.

Ángel Montas, Elijah Gray, Zach Riley, and Romad Dean round out the returners from last year. All four players stand between 6'5" and 6'8" and will have the opportunity to earn key roles off the bench.

Montas dealt with a knee injury for most of last season but when healthy he's as talented as any on the roster. It appears he's still working his way back though after being cleared back in October. I watched one of his HS games when he went up against Trey's WRA squad and he impressed me scoring in a lot of different ways.

While Gray, a Charlotte native, was not overly efficient last year as a freshman last year but he posted strong per-minute numbers as a scorer and rebounder. He scored 10 points against Arkansas early last year in just 12 minutes. Gray has seen his role increase slightly this year as a key cog to get the offense going from off the bench (he may play the most minutes of this quartet). In addition to his improvement from the FT line, he also has the ability to step out and make a 3 as a smallish 5. That may force CC to put a more mobile guy on him if he lets it fly.

Riley is a native of New Zealand who enters his third year with the program. While he is shooting a career-best 45% from the field on the year, he just hasn't lived up to his billing as a shooter from distance (a career 28%) and doesn't do quite enough to make up for that. Still, it wouldn't be surprising to see him play a few minutes here and there.

Finally, Dean is a 6'7" forward who would probably be better classified as a true stretch forward rather than a guy who lives in the paint. The Bahamas native is shooting 35% from 3 this year and takes over 50% of his shots from there. He will also grab the occasional rebound.

While returning eight players provides a nice floor to build from going into the year, the reality is that Urgo still needed to replace nearly half of Fordham's scoring from last year following the losses of Quisenberry and Moore and he couldn't bank solely on internal improvement. Thus, UTSA transfer Japhet Medor was brought in to play the Quisenberry scoring guard role, while Urgo hoped the combination of Lafayette forward Joshua Rivera and former Binghamton/Howard big man Ogheneyole "Savior" Akuwovo would help replace some of the tools Moore brought to the squad (Rivera along the perimeter, Akuwovo as an enforcer inside).

Medor, an all-CUSA honorable mention recipient, started all but one game for the Roadrunners last season and averaged nearly 14 points a game while handing out nearly four dimes. His ability to swipe the ball away defensively seemed like a perfect fit on Fordham, but there were questions about whether he could contribute to winning as UTSA won just 10 games last year (they are a real anchor for the AAC right now). Medor may have just been a "good stats, bad team" guy. While his ability to finish inside has waned a bit, his efficiency from deep has improved as there's more pieces around him to command attention. Still, there are questions about his productivity against better competition. This year, he's gone 0-7 from the field against Tulane, 2-13 against North Texas, and 0-9 against St. John's. GW may not be close to any of these teams right now but I think they're good enough defensively to limit Medor's effectiveness if focused.

Rivera made the all-rookie team last year in the Patriot League. He has more or less replicated his scoring/rebounding production from last year, but that also includes his bricky shooting from the FT line. He was 48% from the line last year and is barely better this season at 49%. Despite that, he went 9/10 in his most recent appearance against St. John's. It remains to be seen whether that's an anomaly or the norm moving forward. At the very least, he's a versatile piece for Fordham who can play at several spots on the floor. It's worth noting that Rivera has missed Fordham's last two games due to injury so his status is worth monitoring going into tomorrow's contest.

Akuwovo had a near double-double (8 points, 9 rebounds) against GW while he was still at Howard way back in the 2018-19 season but shot only 2/9 from the field. He has since improved his efficiency and may score the occasional basket/come down with a rebound here and there but doesn't figure to be a heavy minutes guy on this Fordham team.

The final pieces on the squad are redshirt freshman Noah Best and true freshman Jahmere Tripp, both local prospects for the school. Best will likely be a deeper option as he's only really seen action in garbage time for Fordham this year. Tripp was teammates with Christian last year and has the physique to become a matchup problem in the A10 down the line. He can handle the ball like a guard, but also operate out of the post like a forward. Tripp can shoot the three, but has been unable to find the mark so far.

This is certainly a favorable first game for GW to start their conference slate, however Fordham is definitely strong in a few categories that may hurt them. The first should come as no surprise, and that is swiping the ball away and turning teams over. GW has been facing competition in this mold in recent weeks but Fordham is certainly a step up in competition. How do the freshmen respond to the pressure? Are they able to break the press and get to the line? Next is the offensive rebounding. Can GW limit Fordham to one possession and box out effectively? Like the recent teams they've faced, Fordham isn't the strongest shooting team so they send bodies to the rim to earn extra chances when they miss. Finally, Fordham relies on getting to the line a lot in order to generate offense. This seems like the lowest concern given GW basically never fouls (sixth nationally) but a Navy game could always transpire. Fordham is not good from the line either but it feels like opponents have had little to no trouble making shots at the Smith Center this year.

As mentioned above, the Rams have also done a great job of taking away the 3, but I think GW has the ball movement and ability to score inside that I'm not too worried there. Fordham fouls a lot, so GW will have to finish better from the line. They can also turn it over themselves a lot on offense, but I'm less confident that the Revs will be able to capitalize on those chances given their inability to turn teams over when the other team doesn't just straight up give them the ball.

Projected Score: GW 76, Fordham 72. 66% chance to win (KenPom). ESPN gives us a 59.2% chance to begin conference play 1-0.
 

I agree, LSF. I don’t necessarily think we definitely lose to the Rams, I see it as a true tossup. I do think we get run out of. VCU.  The value of the cupcake schedule would have been to prepare and fine tune and show progress. None of that Progress has happened. Indeed, you can make an equally good case saying there has been regression. I’m looking for a ton of turnovers and a continued reliance on 3’s that always risks us being on the precipice of being blown out if we don’t make 40% plus. My heart hopes I’m wrong (and will probably lead to some stupid bets), but my head tells me we’re about to find out that 11-2 was a joke OOC.  And it ain’t because there were no students in attendance.

LSF, if you are offering I will take GW +8

LA Colonial wrote:

LSF, if you are offering I will take GW +8

I am hoping my prediction will look quite foolish after we lay a 20 point drubbing on Fordham.

jf wrote:

The result of the schedule is that we have no idea against Fordham at home.
On the other hand, 11 wins is great. Much better than we have been in recent years in terms of numbers of wins.  However, thought was there a post that we were now 360 or so in strength of schedule? An amazing feat.
  Would an 11-2 team (or 10-2 minus the big D2 victory) with a reasonably decent schedule possibly even get at least a few votes in also part of the top 25 polls?

 
Probably not given the SC blowout. We are what they see. And they don’t see top 100, never mind top 25.

No game is a sure thing as we have seen against many of our opponents. I would point out, however, that Fordham has played only one away game so far this season and lost that one by 20+ points. I'm optimistic.

In anticipation of the Fordham game and the start of the A-10 season, I will offer what have been my strongest impressions from our mixed blessing 11-2 OOC start; 1) The time has come for JBIV to once again assume his rightful role as the best offensive player on this team, i.e., option number one when we need a score.   He has spent the bulk of the OOC trying hard to become more of a distributor, ball-handler, and "true" team-first kind of point guard.   I commend his efforts, and they can work out OK against the Alcorns and UMES's of the world, but either he or CC (preferably both) has to realize quickly that the time has come to turn it up a notch or two.   We are going to need around 20-25 a night from JBIV from here on in. 2)  JBIV's play in the OOC should have presented the perfect opportunity for Max to emerge as a serious offensive threat ready to take that next logical step towards becoming a consistent 15-20 a night guy.   It didn't happen.   Not even close.   In fact, I see some regression here.   The attitude/demeanor do seem somehow off.   Let's hope it truly is just temporary - maybe a health concern.   Whatever is going on has now persisted for 5-6 games in a row, and must be viewed with some concern.   I just don't recall Max having gone through a stretch like this last year.   In fact, I gave him very high marks for consistently inspired and spirited play before this recent stretch.   I believe these two guys are the keys to our success (if any) in Conference play.

James has been giving up the ball.Starting against the Rams, the coach will change his tune. Look for 30 points. To get a guy off the blocks, coaches will park them on offense at the free line. If I were CC,  I would make an unconventional move and use Max with Bishop. CC never figured out how to use Stretch in the offense in a way that produced much of anything I would get him off the floor and go with a big guard and defend hard and straight up.

Are the students back? A mostly empty Smith won't help us any.

4 offensive rebounds given up already. Could be the story of the night.